TURKISH GRAIN BOARD
GENERAL DIRECTORATE
NUMBER: 2014/3
GRAIN NEWSLETTER
15.04.2014
1-) TGB GRAIN PURCHASES AND PRICES
A- GRAIN
According to TÜİK’s (TurkStat) data, in our country, 20.100 thousand tons of wheat, 7.100 thousand
tons of barley, 370 thousand tons of rye, 210 thousand tons of oat and 105 thousand tons of triticale were
produced in 2012. In 2013, 22.050 thousand tons of wheat, 7.900 thousand tons of barley, 365 thousand tons
of rye, 235 thousand tons of oat and 118 thousand tons of triticale have been produced. While total production
of the mentioned products was 27.885 thousand tons in 2012, it has been 30.668 thousand tons in 2013 with
an increase of 10 %.
2013 period harvest began by 30th April 2013. Markets were monitored closely and, with the
beginning of the harvest, procurements by undertaking began on 20th May 2013. On 7th June 2013, wheat
intervention purchase prices have been announced as given in the below table and wheat purchases have
begun as of 8th June 2013. Until 15th April 2014, 1.987.391 tons of grain has been purchased by cash. In
addition, 286.453 tons of wheat has been procured as consignee and stored. No intervention purchase price has
been announced for barley, rye, triticale and oat and procurements by undertaking are in progress for them.
2013 PERIOD TGB INTERVENTION PURCHASE PRICES (TL/TON)
TYPE
DURUM
WHEAT
INTERVENTION PURCHASE PRICE
DURUM WHEAT
765
LOW QUALITY DURUM WHEAT
640
ANATOLIAN WHITE AND RED HARD WHEAT
MILLING
OTHER RED AND WHITE WHEAT
WHEAT
LOW QUALITY MILLING WHEAT
720
685
620
Table:1
B- MAIZE
According to TÜİK’s data, maize production was 4,6 million tons in our country in 2012. In 2013 it has
been 5,9 million tons with an increase of 28 % compared to 2012.
On 7th August 2013, maize intervention purchase price has been announced as 640 TL/ton. Purchases
by cash and procurements as consignee have begun as of 12th August 2013 and by 15th April 2014, 1.373.444
tons of maize has been purchased by cash and 18.305 tons of maize has been procured as consignee.
For maize, Purchases with Complete Appointment System has begun and the realization ratio of the
appointments is 79% until today. The ratio of the ones who delivered their maize with bank card is 96 %.
Following the receipt of the crop, payments are made within 30 days. In case of receipt with bank
card, payments are made within 10 days.
Payments have been completed for all the maize procured.
198 thousand tons of maize was sold for export by our Organization as a result of the exportation
tender held on 24th October 2013.
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C- PADDY
According to TÜİK’s (TurkStat) data, while the paddy production in Turkey was 880 thousand tons in
2012 it has been 900 thousand tons (rice equivalent of it is 540 thousand tons) in 2013 with an increase of 2,3
% compared to 2012.
It’s estimated that, of the total paddy production in 2013, 74% is Osmancık type, 17% is Baldo type
and %9 are other types.
Our country’s annual rice consumption is about 600 thousand tons.
Countrywide, 2013 period paddy harvest began on 8th September 2013 and it has been completed on
7th November 2013.
In 2013 period, it wasn’t seen necessary to announce intervention purchase prices as the paddy prices
on the market are above the price forecasted by TGB.
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2-) FORMS, TERMS AND PRICES OF TGB INTERNAL SALES AND STOCK EXCHANGE PRICES
A-) FORMS AND TERMS OF INTERNAL SALES
- Sales Against Cash Price:
Between 1st and 31st March 2014, 2,2 million tons of milling wheat was open to sale with the price of
710-830 TL/ton only for flour mills, bulghur factories and biscuit factories in the way of collecting demand.
Between 1st and 31st March 2014, 84 thousand tons of domestic barley and 89 thousand tons of
imported barley was open to sale with the price of 639 TL/ton for the feed factories, stockbreeders and the
enterprises producing their own feed.
Between 1st and 31st March 2014, 14 thousand tons of rye was open to sale with the price of 679
TL/ton without any discrimination between persons and/or companies.
Between 26th March - 30th April 2014 the maize in our stocks is open to sale with the price of 735
TL/ton only for its users.
After the completion of the harvest; because some companies and persons having paddy and rice in
their stocks haven’t supplied enough to the market in the expectation of higher profits, it was observed that
paddy and rice prices rose speculatively. TGB has been selling the domestic Osmancık rice in its stocks at all of
its offices (172 sales point) with the retail price of 2,50 TL/kg. In addition, TGB has been supplying the
domestic Osmancık rice in 2 kg packages and the imported Calrose rice in 1 kg packages to the public at the
markets. Recommended retail price, determined by TGB, of the rice sold at the markets is 2,90 TL/kg for the
domestic Osmancık rice and 2,80 TL/kg for the imported Calrose rice. Also, in order to meet the raw material
needs of the rice millers, 10.000 tons of imported paddy was put up for sale with the price of 1.450 TL/Ton (for
60% yield). In this context, 9.065 tons of paddy has been sold to 49 companies and the deliveries are in
progress.
In our sales against cash price; the commodity prices deposited by the demanders are taken into TGB
“Received Order Advances” accounts. In case of any changes in TGB prices or fees, these differences are
reflected to undelivered products exactly. In case the purchaser desists from the purchase, balance product
price is returned to the purchaser. Furthermore in case the sales are terminated by TGB for any reason during
delivery, the prices of undelivered products are returned to the purchasers upon request or delivery continues
at prevailing price, fee and terms upon re-opening of the sales.
Depositing of the product price into TGB bank account does not mean that sale is accepted.
Furthermore depositing the amount into bank account without information of the Office does not mean of a
contractual or implied acceptance.
All the rice in our stocks is open to the sale against cash price without any discrimination between
persons and/or companies
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- Deferred Payment Sales:
Between 1st and 31st March 2014, 2,2 million tons of milling wheat was open to sale with the price of
710-830 TL/ton only for flour mills,bulghur factories and biscuit factories for up to 500 tons (up to 1.000 tons
for stocks in Yerköy and Diyarbakır) with the deferment of 120 days and without interest.
Between 1st and 31st March 2014, 89 thousand tons of imported barley in our stocks was open to sale
with the price of 639 TL/ton for the feed factories, stockbreeders and the enterprises producing their own feed
with the deferment of 120 days and without interest.
Between 1st and 31st March 2014, 14 thousand tons of rye was open to sale with the price of 679
TL/ton without any discrimination between persons and/or companies with the deferment of 120 days and
without interest.
Between 26th March - 30th April 2014 the maize in our stocks is open to sale with the price of 735
TL/ton only for its users with the deferment of up to 90 days and without interest.
Deferred payment sales shall be made in accordance with the contract principals which TMO General
Directorate has prepared and sent to the branches. For the deferred payment sales, performance security and
commodity cost warrantee are taken from natural or legal entity companies. In exchange for both performance
security and commodity cost warrantee, cash Turkish Lira, government bond, treasure bond, bridge and dam
profit sharing receipts and guarantee letters belong to the banks and participation banks which are in the
Finance Department’s list showing banks and participation banks authorized to issue guarantee letter are
accepted as guarantee. Guarantee letters could be unlimited in time or limited in time. When the guarantee
letter is limited in time, it must include at least 6 month additional validity period after the end of deferment in
the contract. Validity period of the guarantee letters limited in time shall be monitored by TMO unit signing the
contract.
In case of an increase in the sales prices, new price is applied to the commodity which’s not delivered
yet. In this case, additional guarantee is taken for the price difference of the undelivered commodity or, at the
delivery of remaining commodity, a deduction equal to the price difference is made from the commodity. In
case of a decrease in sales prices, delivery continues with the prices in the contract
For the deferred payment sales, at the deliveries, which will be made after the signature of the
contract and receipt of the guarantees, representative of the buyer must be there, he must sign the prepared
documents with the officials of TMO and he must submit notarized authorization documents, which shows his
authority to receive and forward the commodity and which’s issued in the current year, to the office delivering
the commodity. Otherwise, the commodity shall not be delivered.
- Manipulation fees;
For Polyethylene and Soil Cover Bulks, Modern Open Bulk Storing Units and Haystacks 5 TL/Ton
For all closed storages 7.50 TL/Ton
For grain sales in sacks 7.50 TL/Ton
Manipulation fee is not applicable in rice sales.
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B) INTERNAL SALES PRICES
Our internal grain sales prices are given in below Table: 2
GRAIN SALES PRICES*
COMMODITY NAME
COMMODITY CODE
SALE PRICE (TL/TON)
1262-1272
830
1213-1223
820
1263-1273
820
1264-1274
810
1371
820
1312
815
1362-1372
815
1313-1323
800
1363-1373
800
1364-1374
790
LOW QUALITY MILLING WHEAT
1661-1671
710
BARLEY
2111
639
RYE
2211
679
MAIZE
2411
735
ANATOLIAN HARD WHEAT
OTHER MILLING WHEAT
Table:2
NOTE: Excluding manipulation and VAT, including additional transportation cost between the branches
* Wheat, barley and rye sales prices were valid between 01.03.2014 – 31.03.2014, maize sale price is valid
between 26.03.2014 – 30.04.2014.
Our rice sales prices are given in below Table: 3
RICE SALES PRICES
TYPE
CODE NO
Osmancık
PACKED
5 KG (TL)
12,50
PACKED
2 KG (TL)
5,00
PACKED
1 KG (TL)
2,50
3651
Table:3
NOTE: Including packing costs, manipulation, additional transportation costs and VAT, excluding other costs.
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C) STOCK EXCHANGE VOLUMES AND PRICES
The wheat, barley, rye and oats, which are traded at exchanges, are followed from Eskisehir, Konya,
Polatlı, Corum, Bandırma and Edirne stock exchanges by TGB, whereas corn is followed from Adana stock
exchange on daily basis. Average prices of March 2014 are given in below Table: 4
COMPARISON OF STOCK EXCHANGE PRICES
TGB
SALES
PRICE
STOCK EXCHANGES
PRODUCT
NAME
ESKİŞEHİR
TL/Ton
Trade
qty.
(Ton)
TL/Ton
Trade
qty.
(Ton)
-
-
907
805
452
764
POLATLI
TL/Ton
Trade
qty.
(Ton)
308
-
874
1.155
255
831
778
3.043
761
ÇORUM
TL/Ton
Trade
qty.
(Ton)
-
774
881
2.258
203
834
828
1.566
147
816
769
901
673
691
-
1.029
35
-
Price
DURUM
WHEAT
ANATOLIAN
RED
HARD MILLING
WHEAT
OTHER WHITE
MILLING
WHEAT
OTHER RED
MILLING
WHEAT
LOW QUALITY
WHITE WHEAT
LOW QUALITY
RED WHEAT
BARLEY
RYE
OATS
CORN
RICE*
ROUGH RICE*
* Rice
KONYA
EDİRNE
TL/Ton
Trade
qty.
(Ton)
20
-
-
-
24
-
842
907
861
828
801
1.936
664
684
-
1.758
7
-
Price
ADANA
BANDIRMA
TL/Ton
Trade
qty.
(Ton)
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
516
650
842
3.630
-
670
715
692
-
159
9
6
-
Price
Price
TL/Ton
March
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
-
810-830
-
-
-
808
90
790-815
791
596
-
-
-
-
790-820
2
-
-
-
-
-
-
710
-
782
22
-
-
-
-
710
-
639
679
735
2.500
-
Price
Price
Price
639
276
664 49.102
2.800
1.711
and rough rice prices belong to Osmancık type and are average of wholesale prices in free market.
Table:4
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TL/Ton
Trade
qty.
(Ton)
3-) WORLD CROP MARKETS ( in accordance with the monthly summary report of International Grain Council
– IGC dated 27.03.2014 and number 442.)
The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) is up 1% m/m, but underlying performance was mixed with
increases for wheat, maize and barley partly offset by declines for soyabeans and rice. The potential impact of
political tensions in the Black Sea region remains uncertain, but with Russia and Ukraine significant exporters of
wheat, and Ukraine the third leading supplier of maize to world markets, both prices and volatility have risen.
The preliminary projection for the 2014/15 total grains balance places output at 1,949 million tons (m
t), down 1% y/y as yields either retreat from the previous year’s highs or, for maize, remain unchanged. Wheat
output is seen down 1%, but a small increase is anticipated for maize. Consumption is expected to continue to
rise, but end-season stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) are seen up 4%, including a 14%
expansion in major exporters. The majority will likely be in maize, where a sharp rise in the US has the
potential to lift world closing stocks to the highest level in 15 years. In contrast, wheat carryovers are expected
to be little changed.
The forecast for 3% growth in global rice trade is based on higher sales to Far East Asia, and has been
strengthened by the recent announcement of a large tender by the Philippines, where stocks as at 1 February
were at the lowest level since 2008.
With harvesting underway in Brazil and beginning in Argentina, this month sees a further downgrade
to the forecast for global soyabean production, mostly as a result of less than favourable weather in Brazil.
However, it is still seen at an all-time high of 282m t and inventories are seen rising by 4% in 2013/14. Prices
have moved lower with the onset of South American harvests, but remain supported by firm demand and tight
nearby supplies.
A number of meteorological forecasters have indicated the possibility of an El Niño weather event
developing this year, but, as always, these remain tentative and the implications for crops are not definitive.
WHEAT
Despite ample nearby supplies and generally favourable crop prospects, US weather concerns and
political tensions in the Black Sea region have lifted the wheat GOI sub-Index 9% m/m.
World stocks are seen up 17m t by the end of 2013/14, and trade is raised by 4m t this month, to a
record 150m, with stronger than expected demand in Near East Asia and Africa.
Projected 2014/15 global production has been lifted by 4m t, to 700m, but this would still be slightly
lower y/y.
Growth in food and feed demand are expected to entirely absorb output, with carryover stocks forecast
to be little changed in 2014/15.
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MAIZE
Driven mainly by a strong rise in Black Sea export prices, the IGC maize sub-Index is up by 4% m/m.
A bumper crop in 2013/14 should allow for some stock building, with a sharp rise in supplies more
than offsetting strong gains in use.
Preliminary projections for 2014/15 indicate a slight expansion in area and, assuming yields at similar
levels to the previous year, output is forecast up 0.3% at 961m t.
Strong demand growth is also expected, but, led by a steep increase in the US, world closing stocks
are forecast to expand again in 2014/15, potentially to the highest level in 15 years.
RICE
The IGC GOI rice sub-Index fell 3% m/m, mostly reflecting a weaker tone in Thailand following the end
of paddy intervention buying and ongoing efforts to release state reserves.
The world crop is forecast to be marginally larger y/y in 2013/14, centred on increases in Asian and
South American producers.
The 2013/14 world carryover is projected to be broadly unchanged from the year before, with ample
supplies in the major exporters.
Larger shipments to markets in Far East Asia, namely Indonesia and the Philippines, are forecast to
underpin a of 3% rise in world trade.
OILSEEDS
The IGC GOI soyabean sub-Index fell 3% m/m as the advancing harvest in Brazil, and the switch to
new crop prices, contrasted with firmer old crop values in the US.
The forecast for global soyabean output in 2013/14 is lowered this month, but is still seen rising by 4%
y/y, to an all-time high.
A 4% expansion in 2013/14 end-season stocks is expected, but availabilities are less ample than
initially anticipated; trade is seen up 11% y/y, almost entirely due to strong China demand.
Following a record crop in 2013/14, global rapeseed/canola output is tentatively projected down 3% in
2014/15 as yields retreat, but it would still be the second highest crop ever.
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WORLD GRAIN PRICES ON 15/04/2014
PRODUCT CODE
PRICE US$/Ton
USA 2HRW
335,30
FRANCE MILLING WHEAT
299,10
RUSSIA MILLING WHEAT
292,00
ARGENTINA MILLING WHEAT
360,00
USA 2SRW
287,70
FRANCE DURUM
388,36
FRANCE BARLEY
258,00
RUSSIA BARLEY
239,00
USA CORN (3YC)
233,10
USA LONG GRAIN RICE
594,00
(*) Selling rate of Central Bank on 15/04/2014: 2,1306
(**) REFERENCE: REUTERS
(***) Argentina Milling Wheat and USA Long Grain Rice price is according to IGC Report
(****) France Durum price is according to FRANCE AGRIMER report dated 14.04.2014
(*****) Russia Wheat and Barley price is according to APK INFORM report
Table: 5
WORLD WHEAT PRODUCTION, TRADE, CONSUMPTION AND STOCK VALUES (MILLION TONS)
WHEAT
2009/2010 2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
ESTIMATE
2013/14
FORECAST
PRODUCTION
679
653
695
655
709
TRADE
128
126
145
140
150
CONSUMPTION
652
658
698
674
692
STOCK
199
194
*REFERENCE: IGC MARCH 2014
192
173
190
Table: 6
WORLD MAIZE PRODUCTION, TRADE, CONSUMPTION AND STOCK VALUES (MILLION TONS)
MAIZE
PRODUCTION
2009/2010 2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
ESTIMATE
2013/14
FORECAST
820
831
877
861
959
86
93
97
96
112
822
844
876
864
931
STOCK
145
131
131
*REFERENCE: IGC MARCH 2014
Table: 7
127
155
TRADE
CONSUMPTION
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WORLD GRAIN PRODUCTION (2013/14 FORECAST, MILLION TONS)
COUNTRY
WHEAT BARLEY
MAIZE
AB-28
142,2
59,6
64,5
ÇİN
121,7
2,3
217,7
HİNDİSTAN
93,5
1,7
23,0
ABD
58,0
4,7
353,7
RUSYA
52,1
15,4
10,7
KANADA
37,5
10,2
14,2
AVUSTRALYA
27,0
9,6
0,3
PAKİSTAN
24,0
0,3
3,5
UKRAYNA
22,3
7,6
30,9
TÜRKİYE
18,0
7,3
4,0
KAZAKİSTAN
13,9
2,5
0,5
İRAN
14,5
3,2
1,8
4,7
145,2
24,0
959,0
ARJANTİN
10,0
DÜNYA TOPLAMI
709,0
*REFERENCE: IGC MARCH 2014
Table:8
PRODUCTION STATUS OF WORLD WHEAT PRODUCERS (MILLION TONS)
2009/10
2010/11
2011/12
2012/13
ESTIMATE
2013/14
FORECAST
2013 RATIO
IN WORLD
PRODUCTION
PER
FORECASTED
PRODUCTION
VALUES %
FAR EAST
227,3
227,3
235,6
247,5
247,4
34,9
CHINA
115,1
115,2
117,4
120,6
121,7
17,2
INDIA
80,7
80,8
86,9
94,9
93,5
13,2
EUROPE
143,0
140,7
141,8
136,0
146,4
20,6
EU-28
138,3
136,8
137,4
131,6
142,2
20,1
FRANCE
38,3
38,1
36,1
37,9
38,6
5,4
GERMANY
25,2
24,0
23,0
22,4
24,7
3,5
U.K
14,1
14,9
15,3
13,3
11,9
1,7
POLAND
9,8
9,5
9,3
8,7
9,5
1,3
SPAIN
4,8
5,7
6,8
5,1
7,7
1,1
C.I.S
113,6
81,1
115,0
77,2
102,7
14,5
RUSSIA
61,7
41,5
56,2
37,7
52,1
7,3
UKRAINE
20,9
16,8
22,3
15,8
22,3
3,1
KAZAKHISTAN
16,5
9,6
22,7
9,8
13,9
2,0
USA
60,4
60,1
54,4
61,8
58,0
8,2
CANADA
26,8
23,3
25,3
27,2
37,5
5,3
AUSTRALIA
21,8
27,4
29,9
22,5
27,0
3,8
PAKISTAN
24,0
23,9
24,2
23,3
24,0
3,4
TURKEY
18,5
17,5
18,8
17,5
18,0
2,5
IRAN
12,0
15,0
13,5
14,0
14,5
2,0
1,4
WHEAT
PRODUCER
COUNTRIES
ARGENTINA
WORLD
9,0
15,9
14,5
8,2
10,0
679,0
652,9
695,4
654,9
709,0
*REFERENCE: IGC MARCH 2014
Table: 9
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15.04.2014