TURKISH GRAIN BOARD GENERAL DIRECTORATE NUMBER: 2014/3 GRAIN NEWSLETTER 15.04.2014 1-) TGB GRAIN PURCHASES AND PRICES A- GRAIN According to TÜİK’s (TurkStat) data, in our country, 20.100 thousand tons of wheat, 7.100 thousand tons of barley, 370 thousand tons of rye, 210 thousand tons of oat and 105 thousand tons of triticale were produced in 2012. In 2013, 22.050 thousand tons of wheat, 7.900 thousand tons of barley, 365 thousand tons of rye, 235 thousand tons of oat and 118 thousand tons of triticale have been produced. While total production of the mentioned products was 27.885 thousand tons in 2012, it has been 30.668 thousand tons in 2013 with an increase of 10 %. 2013 period harvest began by 30th April 2013. Markets were monitored closely and, with the beginning of the harvest, procurements by undertaking began on 20th May 2013. On 7th June 2013, wheat intervention purchase prices have been announced as given in the below table and wheat purchases have begun as of 8th June 2013. Until 15th April 2014, 1.987.391 tons of grain has been purchased by cash. In addition, 286.453 tons of wheat has been procured as consignee and stored. No intervention purchase price has been announced for barley, rye, triticale and oat and procurements by undertaking are in progress for them. 2013 PERIOD TGB INTERVENTION PURCHASE PRICES (TL/TON) TYPE DURUM WHEAT INTERVENTION PURCHASE PRICE DURUM WHEAT 765 LOW QUALITY DURUM WHEAT 640 ANATOLIAN WHITE AND RED HARD WHEAT MILLING OTHER RED AND WHITE WHEAT WHEAT LOW QUALITY MILLING WHEAT 720 685 620 Table:1 B- MAIZE According to TÜİK’s data, maize production was 4,6 million tons in our country in 2012. In 2013 it has been 5,9 million tons with an increase of 28 % compared to 2012. On 7th August 2013, maize intervention purchase price has been announced as 640 TL/ton. Purchases by cash and procurements as consignee have begun as of 12th August 2013 and by 15th April 2014, 1.373.444 tons of maize has been purchased by cash and 18.305 tons of maize has been procured as consignee. For maize, Purchases with Complete Appointment System has begun and the realization ratio of the appointments is 79% until today. The ratio of the ones who delivered their maize with bank card is 96 %. Following the receipt of the crop, payments are made within 30 days. In case of receipt with bank card, payments are made within 10 days. Payments have been completed for all the maize procured. 198 thousand tons of maize was sold for export by our Organization as a result of the exportation tender held on 24th October 2013. 1 Bu belge 5070 sayılı elektronik imza kanuna göre güvenli elektronik imza ile imzalanmıştır. C- PADDY According to TÜİK’s (TurkStat) data, while the paddy production in Turkey was 880 thousand tons in 2012 it has been 900 thousand tons (rice equivalent of it is 540 thousand tons) in 2013 with an increase of 2,3 % compared to 2012. It’s estimated that, of the total paddy production in 2013, 74% is Osmancık type, 17% is Baldo type and %9 are other types. Our country’s annual rice consumption is about 600 thousand tons. Countrywide, 2013 period paddy harvest began on 8th September 2013 and it has been completed on 7th November 2013. In 2013 period, it wasn’t seen necessary to announce intervention purchase prices as the paddy prices on the market are above the price forecasted by TGB. 2 Bu belge 5070 sayılı elektronik imza kanuna göre güvenli elektronik imza ile imzalanmıştır. 2-) FORMS, TERMS AND PRICES OF TGB INTERNAL SALES AND STOCK EXCHANGE PRICES A-) FORMS AND TERMS OF INTERNAL SALES - Sales Against Cash Price: Between 1st and 31st March 2014, 2,2 million tons of milling wheat was open to sale with the price of 710-830 TL/ton only for flour mills, bulghur factories and biscuit factories in the way of collecting demand. Between 1st and 31st March 2014, 84 thousand tons of domestic barley and 89 thousand tons of imported barley was open to sale with the price of 639 TL/ton for the feed factories, stockbreeders and the enterprises producing their own feed. Between 1st and 31st March 2014, 14 thousand tons of rye was open to sale with the price of 679 TL/ton without any discrimination between persons and/or companies. Between 26th March - 30th April 2014 the maize in our stocks is open to sale with the price of 735 TL/ton only for its users. After the completion of the harvest; because some companies and persons having paddy and rice in their stocks haven’t supplied enough to the market in the expectation of higher profits, it was observed that paddy and rice prices rose speculatively. TGB has been selling the domestic Osmancık rice in its stocks at all of its offices (172 sales point) with the retail price of 2,50 TL/kg. In addition, TGB has been supplying the domestic Osmancık rice in 2 kg packages and the imported Calrose rice in 1 kg packages to the public at the markets. Recommended retail price, determined by TGB, of the rice sold at the markets is 2,90 TL/kg for the domestic Osmancık rice and 2,80 TL/kg for the imported Calrose rice. Also, in order to meet the raw material needs of the rice millers, 10.000 tons of imported paddy was put up for sale with the price of 1.450 TL/Ton (for 60% yield). In this context, 9.065 tons of paddy has been sold to 49 companies and the deliveries are in progress. In our sales against cash price; the commodity prices deposited by the demanders are taken into TGB “Received Order Advances” accounts. In case of any changes in TGB prices or fees, these differences are reflected to undelivered products exactly. In case the purchaser desists from the purchase, balance product price is returned to the purchaser. Furthermore in case the sales are terminated by TGB for any reason during delivery, the prices of undelivered products are returned to the purchasers upon request or delivery continues at prevailing price, fee and terms upon re-opening of the sales. Depositing of the product price into TGB bank account does not mean that sale is accepted. Furthermore depositing the amount into bank account without information of the Office does not mean of a contractual or implied acceptance. All the rice in our stocks is open to the sale against cash price without any discrimination between persons and/or companies 3 Bu belge 5070 sayılı elektronik imza kanuna göre güvenli elektronik imza ile imzalanmıştır. - Deferred Payment Sales: Between 1st and 31st March 2014, 2,2 million tons of milling wheat was open to sale with the price of 710-830 TL/ton only for flour mills,bulghur factories and biscuit factories for up to 500 tons (up to 1.000 tons for stocks in Yerköy and Diyarbakır) with the deferment of 120 days and without interest. Between 1st and 31st March 2014, 89 thousand tons of imported barley in our stocks was open to sale with the price of 639 TL/ton for the feed factories, stockbreeders and the enterprises producing their own feed with the deferment of 120 days and without interest. Between 1st and 31st March 2014, 14 thousand tons of rye was open to sale with the price of 679 TL/ton without any discrimination between persons and/or companies with the deferment of 120 days and without interest. Between 26th March - 30th April 2014 the maize in our stocks is open to sale with the price of 735 TL/ton only for its users with the deferment of up to 90 days and without interest. Deferred payment sales shall be made in accordance with the contract principals which TMO General Directorate has prepared and sent to the branches. For the deferred payment sales, performance security and commodity cost warrantee are taken from natural or legal entity companies. In exchange for both performance security and commodity cost warrantee, cash Turkish Lira, government bond, treasure bond, bridge and dam profit sharing receipts and guarantee letters belong to the banks and participation banks which are in the Finance Department’s list showing banks and participation banks authorized to issue guarantee letter are accepted as guarantee. Guarantee letters could be unlimited in time or limited in time. When the guarantee letter is limited in time, it must include at least 6 month additional validity period after the end of deferment in the contract. Validity period of the guarantee letters limited in time shall be monitored by TMO unit signing the contract. In case of an increase in the sales prices, new price is applied to the commodity which’s not delivered yet. In this case, additional guarantee is taken for the price difference of the undelivered commodity or, at the delivery of remaining commodity, a deduction equal to the price difference is made from the commodity. In case of a decrease in sales prices, delivery continues with the prices in the contract For the deferred payment sales, at the deliveries, which will be made after the signature of the contract and receipt of the guarantees, representative of the buyer must be there, he must sign the prepared documents with the officials of TMO and he must submit notarized authorization documents, which shows his authority to receive and forward the commodity and which’s issued in the current year, to the office delivering the commodity. Otherwise, the commodity shall not be delivered. - Manipulation fees; For Polyethylene and Soil Cover Bulks, Modern Open Bulk Storing Units and Haystacks 5 TL/Ton For all closed storages 7.50 TL/Ton For grain sales in sacks 7.50 TL/Ton Manipulation fee is not applicable in rice sales. 4 Bu belge 5070 sayılı elektronik imza kanuna göre güvenli elektronik imza ile imzalanmıştır. B) INTERNAL SALES PRICES Our internal grain sales prices are given in below Table: 2 GRAIN SALES PRICES* COMMODITY NAME COMMODITY CODE SALE PRICE (TL/TON) 1262-1272 830 1213-1223 820 1263-1273 820 1264-1274 810 1371 820 1312 815 1362-1372 815 1313-1323 800 1363-1373 800 1364-1374 790 LOW QUALITY MILLING WHEAT 1661-1671 710 BARLEY 2111 639 RYE 2211 679 MAIZE 2411 735 ANATOLIAN HARD WHEAT OTHER MILLING WHEAT Table:2 NOTE: Excluding manipulation and VAT, including additional transportation cost between the branches * Wheat, barley and rye sales prices were valid between 01.03.2014 – 31.03.2014, maize sale price is valid between 26.03.2014 – 30.04.2014. Our rice sales prices are given in below Table: 3 RICE SALES PRICES TYPE CODE NO Osmancık PACKED 5 KG (TL) 12,50 PACKED 2 KG (TL) 5,00 PACKED 1 KG (TL) 2,50 3651 Table:3 NOTE: Including packing costs, manipulation, additional transportation costs and VAT, excluding other costs. 5 Bu belge 5070 sayılı elektronik imza kanuna göre güvenli elektronik imza ile imzalanmıştır. C) STOCK EXCHANGE VOLUMES AND PRICES The wheat, barley, rye and oats, which are traded at exchanges, are followed from Eskisehir, Konya, Polatlı, Corum, Bandırma and Edirne stock exchanges by TGB, whereas corn is followed from Adana stock exchange on daily basis. Average prices of March 2014 are given in below Table: 4 COMPARISON OF STOCK EXCHANGE PRICES TGB SALES PRICE STOCK EXCHANGES PRODUCT NAME ESKİŞEHİR TL/Ton Trade qty. (Ton) TL/Ton Trade qty. (Ton) - - 907 805 452 764 POLATLI TL/Ton Trade qty. (Ton) 308 - 874 1.155 255 831 778 3.043 761 ÇORUM TL/Ton Trade qty. (Ton) - 774 881 2.258 203 834 828 1.566 147 816 769 901 673 691 - 1.029 35 - Price DURUM WHEAT ANATOLIAN RED HARD MILLING WHEAT OTHER WHITE MILLING WHEAT OTHER RED MILLING WHEAT LOW QUALITY WHITE WHEAT LOW QUALITY RED WHEAT BARLEY RYE OATS CORN RICE* ROUGH RICE* * Rice KONYA EDİRNE TL/Ton Trade qty. (Ton) 20 - - - 24 - 842 907 861 828 801 1.936 664 684 - 1.758 7 - Price ADANA BANDIRMA TL/Ton Trade qty. (Ton) - - - - - - - - 516 650 842 3.630 - 670 715 692 - 159 9 6 - Price Price TL/Ton March - - - - - - - - 810-830 - - - 808 90 790-815 791 596 - - - - 790-820 2 - - - - - - 710 - 782 22 - - - - 710 - 639 679 735 2.500 - Price Price Price 639 276 664 49.102 2.800 1.711 and rough rice prices belong to Osmancık type and are average of wholesale prices in free market. Table:4 6 Bu belge 5070 sayılı elektronik imza kanuna göre güvenli elektronik imza ile imzalanmıştır. TL/Ton Trade qty. (Ton) 3-) WORLD CROP MARKETS ( in accordance with the monthly summary report of International Grain Council – IGC dated 27.03.2014 and number 442.) The IGC Grains and Oilseeds Index (GOI) is up 1% m/m, but underlying performance was mixed with increases for wheat, maize and barley partly offset by declines for soyabeans and rice. The potential impact of political tensions in the Black Sea region remains uncertain, but with Russia and Ukraine significant exporters of wheat, and Ukraine the third leading supplier of maize to world markets, both prices and volatility have risen. The preliminary projection for the 2014/15 total grains balance places output at 1,949 million tons (m t), down 1% y/y as yields either retreat from the previous year’s highs or, for maize, remain unchanged. Wheat output is seen down 1%, but a small increase is anticipated for maize. Consumption is expected to continue to rise, but end-season stocks (aggregate of respective local marketing years) are seen up 4%, including a 14% expansion in major exporters. The majority will likely be in maize, where a sharp rise in the US has the potential to lift world closing stocks to the highest level in 15 years. In contrast, wheat carryovers are expected to be little changed. The forecast for 3% growth in global rice trade is based on higher sales to Far East Asia, and has been strengthened by the recent announcement of a large tender by the Philippines, where stocks as at 1 February were at the lowest level since 2008. With harvesting underway in Brazil and beginning in Argentina, this month sees a further downgrade to the forecast for global soyabean production, mostly as a result of less than favourable weather in Brazil. However, it is still seen at an all-time high of 282m t and inventories are seen rising by 4% in 2013/14. Prices have moved lower with the onset of South American harvests, but remain supported by firm demand and tight nearby supplies. A number of meteorological forecasters have indicated the possibility of an El Niño weather event developing this year, but, as always, these remain tentative and the implications for crops are not definitive. WHEAT Despite ample nearby supplies and generally favourable crop prospects, US weather concerns and political tensions in the Black Sea region have lifted the wheat GOI sub-Index 9% m/m. World stocks are seen up 17m t by the end of 2013/14, and trade is raised by 4m t this month, to a record 150m, with stronger than expected demand in Near East Asia and Africa. Projected 2014/15 global production has been lifted by 4m t, to 700m, but this would still be slightly lower y/y. Growth in food and feed demand are expected to entirely absorb output, with carryover stocks forecast to be little changed in 2014/15. 7 Bu belge 5070 sayılı elektronik imza kanuna göre güvenli elektronik imza ile imzalanmıştır. MAIZE Driven mainly by a strong rise in Black Sea export prices, the IGC maize sub-Index is up by 4% m/m. A bumper crop in 2013/14 should allow for some stock building, with a sharp rise in supplies more than offsetting strong gains in use. Preliminary projections for 2014/15 indicate a slight expansion in area and, assuming yields at similar levels to the previous year, output is forecast up 0.3% at 961m t. Strong demand growth is also expected, but, led by a steep increase in the US, world closing stocks are forecast to expand again in 2014/15, potentially to the highest level in 15 years. RICE The IGC GOI rice sub-Index fell 3% m/m, mostly reflecting a weaker tone in Thailand following the end of paddy intervention buying and ongoing efforts to release state reserves. The world crop is forecast to be marginally larger y/y in 2013/14, centred on increases in Asian and South American producers. The 2013/14 world carryover is projected to be broadly unchanged from the year before, with ample supplies in the major exporters. Larger shipments to markets in Far East Asia, namely Indonesia and the Philippines, are forecast to underpin a of 3% rise in world trade. OILSEEDS The IGC GOI soyabean sub-Index fell 3% m/m as the advancing harvest in Brazil, and the switch to new crop prices, contrasted with firmer old crop values in the US. The forecast for global soyabean output in 2013/14 is lowered this month, but is still seen rising by 4% y/y, to an all-time high. A 4% expansion in 2013/14 end-season stocks is expected, but availabilities are less ample than initially anticipated; trade is seen up 11% y/y, almost entirely due to strong China demand. Following a record crop in 2013/14, global rapeseed/canola output is tentatively projected down 3% in 2014/15 as yields retreat, but it would still be the second highest crop ever. 8 Bu belge 5070 sayılı elektronik imza kanuna göre güvenli elektronik imza ile imzalanmıştır. WORLD GRAIN PRICES ON 15/04/2014 PRODUCT CODE PRICE US$/Ton USA 2HRW 335,30 FRANCE MILLING WHEAT 299,10 RUSSIA MILLING WHEAT 292,00 ARGENTINA MILLING WHEAT 360,00 USA 2SRW 287,70 FRANCE DURUM 388,36 FRANCE BARLEY 258,00 RUSSIA BARLEY 239,00 USA CORN (3YC) 233,10 USA LONG GRAIN RICE 594,00 (*) Selling rate of Central Bank on 15/04/2014: 2,1306 (**) REFERENCE: REUTERS (***) Argentina Milling Wheat and USA Long Grain Rice price is according to IGC Report (****) France Durum price is according to FRANCE AGRIMER report dated 14.04.2014 (*****) Russia Wheat and Barley price is according to APK INFORM report Table: 5 WORLD WHEAT PRODUCTION, TRADE, CONSUMPTION AND STOCK VALUES (MILLION TONS) WHEAT 2009/2010 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 ESTIMATE 2013/14 FORECAST PRODUCTION 679 653 695 655 709 TRADE 128 126 145 140 150 CONSUMPTION 652 658 698 674 692 STOCK 199 194 *REFERENCE: IGC MARCH 2014 192 173 190 Table: 6 WORLD MAIZE PRODUCTION, TRADE, CONSUMPTION AND STOCK VALUES (MILLION TONS) MAIZE PRODUCTION 2009/2010 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 ESTIMATE 2013/14 FORECAST 820 831 877 861 959 86 93 97 96 112 822 844 876 864 931 STOCK 145 131 131 *REFERENCE: IGC MARCH 2014 Table: 7 127 155 TRADE CONSUMPTION 9 Bu belge 5070 sayılı elektronik imza kanuna göre güvenli elektronik imza ile imzalanmıştır. WORLD GRAIN PRODUCTION (2013/14 FORECAST, MILLION TONS) COUNTRY WHEAT BARLEY MAIZE AB-28 142,2 59,6 64,5 ÇİN 121,7 2,3 217,7 HİNDİSTAN 93,5 1,7 23,0 ABD 58,0 4,7 353,7 RUSYA 52,1 15,4 10,7 KANADA 37,5 10,2 14,2 AVUSTRALYA 27,0 9,6 0,3 PAKİSTAN 24,0 0,3 3,5 UKRAYNA 22,3 7,6 30,9 TÜRKİYE 18,0 7,3 4,0 KAZAKİSTAN 13,9 2,5 0,5 İRAN 14,5 3,2 1,8 4,7 145,2 24,0 959,0 ARJANTİN 10,0 DÜNYA TOPLAMI 709,0 *REFERENCE: IGC MARCH 2014 Table:8 PRODUCTION STATUS OF WORLD WHEAT PRODUCERS (MILLION TONS) 2009/10 2010/11 2011/12 2012/13 ESTIMATE 2013/14 FORECAST 2013 RATIO IN WORLD PRODUCTION PER FORECASTED PRODUCTION VALUES % FAR EAST 227,3 227,3 235,6 247,5 247,4 34,9 CHINA 115,1 115,2 117,4 120,6 121,7 17,2 INDIA 80,7 80,8 86,9 94,9 93,5 13,2 EUROPE 143,0 140,7 141,8 136,0 146,4 20,6 EU-28 138,3 136,8 137,4 131,6 142,2 20,1 FRANCE 38,3 38,1 36,1 37,9 38,6 5,4 GERMANY 25,2 24,0 23,0 22,4 24,7 3,5 U.K 14,1 14,9 15,3 13,3 11,9 1,7 POLAND 9,8 9,5 9,3 8,7 9,5 1,3 SPAIN 4,8 5,7 6,8 5,1 7,7 1,1 C.I.S 113,6 81,1 115,0 77,2 102,7 14,5 RUSSIA 61,7 41,5 56,2 37,7 52,1 7,3 UKRAINE 20,9 16,8 22,3 15,8 22,3 3,1 KAZAKHISTAN 16,5 9,6 22,7 9,8 13,9 2,0 USA 60,4 60,1 54,4 61,8 58,0 8,2 CANADA 26,8 23,3 25,3 27,2 37,5 5,3 AUSTRALIA 21,8 27,4 29,9 22,5 27,0 3,8 PAKISTAN 24,0 23,9 24,2 23,3 24,0 3,4 TURKEY 18,5 17,5 18,8 17,5 18,0 2,5 IRAN 12,0 15,0 13,5 14,0 14,5 2,0 1,4 WHEAT PRODUCER COUNTRIES ARGENTINA WORLD 9,0 15,9 14,5 8,2 10,0 679,0 652,9 695,4 654,9 709,0 *REFERENCE: IGC MARCH 2014 Table: 9 10 Bu belge 5070 sayılı elektronik imza kanuna göre güvenli elektronik imza ile imzalanmıştır.