Zagreb City Report
Grad Zagreb – Izvješće
H2 2014 / Druga Polovica 2014
HR
H2
Zagreb City Report – H2 2014
Economy/Investment
Economy
According to the Croatian Statistical Bureau, during the third
Croatia is now meeting EU policy standards regarding energy
quarter of 2014, GDP decreased by 0.5% when compared to the
transactions are not possible without an energy certificate. The
corresponding period of the previous year. The largest contribution
development of the market has also brought about the recognition
to the gross domestic product growth was realized through the
of international green building certification, as in Q4 2014, the first
increase of exports and the processing industry, while a decrease
BREEAM certificate was obtained in Croatia by Eurocenter office
was noted in the sector of construction. Furthermore, the post
building in Zagreb.
certificates for both commercial and private properties and sale
accession rise in exports and tourism to the EU is set to continue
during 2015-2016, despite a rising real exchange rate, with plans
During the third quarter of 2014, the Croatian Statistical Bureau
including €483 million of investment to help tourism growth during
noted that the registered unemployment rate among the population
2015.
aged 15-64 years was 15.8%, presenting a drop of 90bps from the
previous quarter.
GDP & Unemployment rate /
BDP & Stopa nezaposlenosti
In October 2014, the average net monthly salary in Croatia
3.00
21.00
2.00
20.00
1.00
19.00
amounted to 5,532 Kuna or €723, while the average net salary for
the same period in Zagreb was 6,427 Kuna or €840.
18.00
Political Situation
On 11th of January 2015, the HDZ candidate, Kolinda Grabar
-2.00
17.00
Kitarovic, was elected as president of the Republic of Croatia with
-3.00
16.00
0.00
-1.00
GDP
Unemployment rate
Source: Oxford Economics, January 2015
On the other hand, growth of public debt to more than 80% of GDP
suggests that budget consolidation is still not on track to meet the
EU deficit target of 3% of GDP by 2017. The target will require
more spending cuts and tax increases, which are unlikely to
happen during the election year. The urgency of reducing public
debt has been forcing the sale of less attractive assets, which has
included 30 to 50 year leases on the majority of the motorway
network. Buyers are set to pay at least €2.5-3 billion for the
franchise, which will most likely increase their cost recovery and
lead to raising tolls on major routes, influencing tourism and
industrial distribution costs. This Government strategy was however
met with fierce opposition from the labour union and the initiative
still remains uncertain. Recent offshore oil and gas exploration
contracts are likely to boost GDP or net exports significantly after
2018.
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50.43% of votes, a tight win against the sitting head of state and
SDP candidate, Ivo Josipovic. HDZ wants faster reform and deeper
budget cuts but, is not confident of parliamentary strength to deliver
them. Political tactics, due to the parliamentary elections set for the
end of 2015 and slow demand, will keep reforms and investment
recovery restrained this year, yet Oxford Economics forecasts an
investment upturn from 2016, responding to stronger product
demand alongside lower capital and labour costs, while S&P
anticipates the end of the recession in H2 2015, with forecasted 1%
GDP growth in 2016.
Investment climate
FDI is set to stay low in the upcoming period, reflecting fears from
bureaucratic constraints and rising taxes under a reforming
government. As a number of landlords are considering an exit from
the market, we expect a higher number of transactions of income
producing properties in the upcoming years. In addition during
2014, the Croatian market witnessed a change of focus from the
office and retail segment toward the hotel and hospitality industry in
the coastal cities.
2
Zagreb City Report – H2 2014
Ekonomija i ulaganja
Hrvatska je uskladila standarde s EU smjernicama o energetskim
certifikatima za privatne i poslovne nekretnine te nije moguće
izvršiti kupoprodajnu transakciju bez energetskog certifikata.
Ekonomija
Sukladno posljednjim podacima objavljenim od strane Državnog
Razvoj tržišta rezultirao je i priznavanjem značaja međunarodnih
zavoda za statistiku, tijekom trećeg tromjesečja 2014.godine, BDP
BREEAM certifikat u Hrvatskoj izdan je za uredsku zgradu
se smanjio za 0.5% u usporedbi s odgovarajućim razdobljem u
Eurocentar u Zagrebu.
2013. godini. Najveći doprinos rastu BDP-a ostvaren je u izvoznom
i prerađivačkom sektoru, dok je sektor graditeljstva zabilježio pad.
Nadalje, rast izvoza i turizma nakon pridruženja EU nastaviti će se
tijekom 2015-2016 unatoč rastućem realnom tečaju, s planovima
koji uključuju € 483 milijuna investicija za pomoć rastu turizma u
certifikata zelene gradnje -u zadnjem tromjesečju 2014. godine prvi
Tijekom trećeg tromjesečja 2014. godine, Državni zavod za
statistiku zabilježio je stopu registrirane nezaposlenosti među
stanovništvom između 15 i 64 godina od 15.8%, što označava pad
od 90 baznih poena u odnosu na prethodno tromjesečje.
U listopadu 2014. prosječna neto plaća u Hrvatskoj iznosila je
2015. godini.
5,532 kune odnosno € 723, dok je prosječna neto plaća u istom
Indeks potrošačkih cijena & Potrošnja potrošača /
Consumer price index & Consumer spending
razdoblju u Zagrebu iznosila 6,427 kuna odnosno € 840.
4.00
Političko okruženje
11. siječnja 2015. godine kandidatkinja HDZ-a Kolinda Grabar
2.00
Kitarović izabrana je za predsjednicu Republike Hrvatske sa
50.43% glasova, nakon tijesne pobjede nad trenutnim
0.00
2010 2011 2012 2013 2014 2015e 2016f 2017f
-2.00
predsjednikom, SDP-ovim kandidatom Ivom Josipovićem. HDZ se
zalaže za brže reforme i dublje smanjenje proračuna, ali nije
sigurno da će imati podršku u Saboru za njihovo provođenje.
Političke taktike zbog parlamentarnih izbora koji se očekuju krajem
-4.00
Index potrošačkih cijena
Potrošnja potrošača
Izvor: Oxford Economics, siječanj 2015
S druge strane, rast javnog duga na preko 80% BDP-a ukazuje na
to da konsolidacija proračuna još nije dostigla ciljani deficit unutar
EU od 3% BDP-a do 2017. godine. Cilj će zahtijevati dodatna
smanjenja potrošnje i povećanje poreza, za koje nije izgledno da će
se dogoditi tijekom izborne godine. Hitna potreba za smanjenjem
javnog duga rezultirala je nužnošću prodaje manje atraktivne
imovine, uključujući i davanje mreže autocesta u najam na 30 do 50
godina. Kupci se spremaju platiti najmanje €2.5-3 milijarde za
koncesiju koja će najvjerojatnije povećati pokriće troškova, ali i
dovesti do povećanja cestarina na važnijim cestama, što će utjecati
na turizam i na troškove distribucije. Osim toga, ova vladina
strategija naišla je na žestok otpor sindikata te još nije siguran
krajnji ishod. Nedavni ugovori o eksploataciji nafte i plina u
2015. i slaba potražnja rezultirati će ograničavanjem reformi i
oporavka investicija ove godine, no Oxford Economics ipak
prognozira rast investicija od 2016. godine, kao rezultat veće
potražnje i nižeg troška kapitala i rada, dok S&P predviđa završetak
recesije u drugoj polovici 2015. godine s prognozom od 1% rasta u
2016.g.
Investicijsko ozračje
Izravna strana ulaganja će ostati niska u nadolazećem razdoblju,
odražavajući strah od birokratskih ograničenja i dodatnog
povećanja poreza u sklopu vladinih reformi. Kako mnogo investitora
u poslovne objekte razmatra izlazak sa tržišta, očekujemo veći broj
transakcija nekretninama koje generiraju prihode u nadolazećim
godinama. Dodatno, tijekom 2014. godine hrvatsko tržište
svjedočilo je prijelazu fokusa interesa s uredskog i maloprodajnog
segmenta prema hotelskoj i ugostiteljskoj djelatnosti u obalnim
gradovima.
Jadranskom moru će vjerojatno značajno povećati BDP ili neto
izvoz nakon 2018. godine.
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3
Zagreb City Report – H2 2014
Office Market
Supply
There were no new office completions on the market during the
was the public sector, followed by the financial and
telecommunication sectors.
second half of the year. Therefore, 2014 was marked with the
delivery of Sky Office tower 2 and the 1st phase of VMD Strojarska,
adding nearly 30,000 m2 to the modern office market. Furthermore,
there are several predominantly smaller scale office projects in the
pipeline which will increase class A and B class office stock, overall
accounting for around 70,000 m2. With an increasing vacancy rate,
we believe the additional supply will further influence a rise in
vacancy causing continued downward pressure on rental levels due
to lower office absorption.
Vacancy
Vacancy has been constantly increasingly over the last 24 months.
The current level is estimated at around 20%, with a further
increases expected. Due to a significant number of relocations of
occupiers to modern office premises, we believe that the highest
vacancy will be recorded in lower quality buildings in inferior
locations. With the delivery of new supply to the market, the vacancy
rate will continue to grow as current market conditions maintain a
low level of absorption.
Office completions, take up and vacancy rate
100,000
25%
80,000
20%
18.00
60,000
15%
16.00
40,000
10%
14.00
20,000
5%
12.00
0%
10.00
0
2010
2011
Completions
2012
Take up
2013
2014
Vacancy rate
Source JLL, January 2015
Prime and secondary rents
8.00
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Prime Rent
Secondary Rent
Demand
The current macroeconomic environment continued to influence the
Source: JLL, January 2015
market demand for office premises. Demand for higher quality and
more flexible schemes with parking, is pushing office occupiers
Rents
During 2014, prime office rents in Zagreb remained stable ranging
outside of the central city area from lower quality premises, mainly
between €14-15 m2/month – with only a few exceptions exceeding
towards Business District East, CBD and Novi Zagreb.
this average. However, rental pressures continued to push rents
down for office premises in secondary locations, now ranging from
During the second half of the year, market activity remained
€8-11 m2/month. With supply exceeding demand, tenants continued
dominated by the relocation of tenants (67%), while the remainder
to expect a greater amount of incentives in the form of rent free
was distributed between the renewal of existing contracts (23%) and
periods and fit-out contributions. Downward pressure on rents can
a limited level of new occupations (10%). However, growth in net
be expected in the strongest locations, although we expect this to be
take-up was noted when compared to the first half of the year,
more evident on secondary properties, as tenants continue to
pointing to possible signs of recovery in the upcoming period.
relocate to modern premises.
The majority of activity was realized in Business District East,
followed by Novi Zagreb, CBD and Buzin. The most active sector
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4
Zagreb City Report – H2 2014
Tržište uredskih prostora
Ponuda
Nije bilo novih uredskih projekata na tržištu tijekom druge polovice
godine. Stoga, 2014. godina obilježena je završetkom Sky Office
tornja 2 i prve faze uredskog dijela projekta VMD Strojarska, koji su
zajedno na tržište donijeli oko 30.000 m2 modernog uredskog
prostora. Nadalje, u najavi je nekoliko uglavnom manjih uredskih
projekata koji će povećati količinu uredskih prostora klase A i klase
B. U okružju povećane stope nepopunjenosti, smatramo da će
dodatna ponuda utjecati na povećanje stope nepopunjenosti,
rezultirajući pritiscima prema dolje na razinu zakupnina zbog niske
apsorpcije uredskog prostora.
slijedi Novi Zagreb, središnja poslovna zona i Buzin, a najaktivniji
sektori su bili javni sektor, te sektori financija i telekomunikacija.
Stopa nepopunjenosti
Tijekom prethodna 24 mjeseca zabilježen je stalan porast stope
nepopunjenosti. Trenutna razina procijenjena je na 20%, sa
izgledima za rast u nadolazećem razdoblju. Zbog značajne količine
preseljenja korisnika u moderne uredske prostorije, vjerujemo da će
najviša razina stope nepopunjenosti biti u prostorima niže kvalitete
na lošijim lokacijama. S isporukom nove ponude na tržištu stopa
nepopunjenosti će nastaviti rast, zato što trenutne opće okolnosti na
tržištu nastavljaju uzrokovati nižu apsorpciju. S poboljšanjem uvjeta
Dovršetak, uzimanje u zakup uredskih prostora i stopa
nepopunjenosti
na tržištu možemo očekivati smanjenje stope nepopunjenosti s
većom aktivnošću koja dolazi od strane novih korisnika unutar
100,000
25%
80,000
20%
60,000
15%
40,000
10%
20,000
5%
16.00
0%
14.00
0
2010
2011
2012
Dovršetak
2013
2014
Uzimanje u zakup
Stopa nepopunjenosti
Izvor: JLL , siječanj 2015
grada.
Zakupnine prvoklasnih i sekundarnih prostora
18.00
12.00
10.00
8.00
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Prvoklasna zakupnina
Potražnja
Trenutno makroekonomsko okruženje i dalje utječe na tržište
potražnje za uredskim prostorima. Potražnja za kvalitetnijim i
fleksibilnijim projektima s parkingom rezultirala je selidbom korisnika
van centra grada iz prostora niže kvalitete, uglavnom prema istočnoj
i središnjoj poslovnoj zoni te Novom Zagrebu.
Sekundarna zakupnina
Izvor: JLL , siječanj 2015
Zakupnine
Tijekom 2014.g. prvoklasne zakupnine uredskih prostora u Zagrebu
ostale su na istoj razini, u rasponu od €14-€15/m2/mjesečno – s
nekolicinom uredskih prostora iznad ovog prosjeka. Ipak, pritisci na
Tijekom druge polovice godine, aktivnost na tržištu ostala je pod
smanjenje zakupnina na sekundarnim lokacijama su se nastavili te
utjecajem preseljenja korisnika (67%), dok je ostatak raspoređen
se sekundarne zakupnine kreću u okvirima €8-€11/m2/mjesec.
između obnove postojećih ugovora (23%) i ograničene razine novih
Obzirom na činjenicu da ponuda nadmašuje potražnju, korisnici
korisnika (10%). Ipak, zabilježen je porast neto iznosa prostora
očekuju još veće poticaje u obliku razdoblja bez plaćanja zakupnine
uzetih u zakup u usporedbi s prvom polovicom godine, ukazujući na
i financiranja troškova uređenja. Pritisci na sumanjenje zakupnina
moguće znakove oporavka u nadolazećem razdoblju.
mogli bi utjecati na zakupnine na najboljim lokacijama, ali vidljiviji
Većina aktivnosti realizirana je u istočnoj poslovnoj zoni, nakon čega
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pritisak će biti zabilježen na sekundarnim lokacijama zbog trenda da
korisnici sele u modernije zgrade.
5
Zagreb City Report – H2 2014
Retail Market
Supply
During 2014, the Zagreb retail market was marked by a growth in
stores, Pevec will expand the chain to a total of 18 units across
Croatia in 2015.
retail stock, encompassing the delivery of shopping center and park
Supernova in Buzin during May 2014. The retail scheme added
Following IKEA’s entrance to the Croatian market, Steinhoff
30,900 m2, with tenants such as Muller, Hervis Sports, Deichmann
International group, the owner of Conforama and Kika, has decided
and C&A. In addition, Swedish furniture retailer IKEA opened its first,
to convert all four Kika stores to Emmezeta throughout the country
highly anticipated, department store in Rugvica during the second
(Rijeka, Slavonski Brod and two in Zagreb), with the overall store
half of the year. The store has 38,000 m2 and offers 1,600 parking
number reaching seven.
spaces. In December, shopping center Meridijan 16 was opened
within the Gračani settlement, including a new Super Konzum store
of 2,000 m2. Due to the significant volume of retail schemes
delivered over the past several years, Zagreb’s retail market is
considered to be oversupplied.
Demand
During 2014, demand for retail space was predominantly driven by
international retailers. Throughout the year we have noted several
new market entries including the following brands - Napapijri, LEGO,
Shopping center stock and annual supply
Bauwelt, Dechlatlon and LPP. Decathlon has opened its first store
(3,500 m2) within King Cross shopping center, which has increased
500,000
the attractiveness of the respective center. The leading Polish brand
400,000
LPP entered the market by introducing its five brands in Arena
300,000
center, while its future plans include expansion to Westgate shopping
center.
200,000
100,000
The second half of the year was marked by the reshuffling caused by
Agrokor’s acquisition of Mercator. Most of the stores from the
Mercator chain in Croatia were rebranded as Konzum, while 95 retail
units around Croatia had to be disposed of to other retailers, in line
Nov-14
Oct-14
Sep-14
Aug-14
Jul-14
Jun-14
Source: JLL, January 2015
May-14
Annual supply
Apr-14
Stock
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
-3
Mar-14
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Feb-14
0
Jan-14
Retail sales YoY growth rates
Source: Croatian Statistical Bureau, 2015
with Croatia's anti-trust regulator ruling. Dinova-Diona chain was sold
off to Spar and several regional retailers. Present retailers such as
Billa, Lidl, Spar, Kaufland, Pevec, Metro and Konzum continued their
expansion throughout the country. During the second half of the year,
Kaufland opened two new stores (each around 2,500 m2) located in
Zagreb and Umag. Pevec has continued its rapid expansion within
the country, with the opening of three new stores located in Kastel
Sucurac, Karlovac and Rijeka. With the acquisition of six Getro
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Rents
The current market conditions and lower purchasing power over the
recent period have caused a drop in the rental levels of retail units
within the shopping centers and on the high street. Average rents
within the prime shopping centers range between €20 - 22 m2/month,
while prime high street rents have recorded a drop and now range
from €60 to 70 m2/month.
6
Zagreb City Report – H2 2014
Maloprodajni prostori
Nakon ulaska IKEA-e na hrvatsko tržište, Steinhoff International
Group, vlasnik Conforame i Kike, odlučio je pretvoriti sve četiri Kika
prodavaonice na području Hrvatske (Rijeka, Slavonski Brod i dvije u
Ponuda
Tijekom 2014.g., tržište maloprodajnih prostora u Zagrebu obilježilo
Zagrebu) u Emmezeta prodavaonice, čime je ukupan broj
prodavaonica dostigao sedam.
je povećanje količine maloprodajnog prostora kao rezultat dovršetka
500000
400000
300000
200000
100000
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Postojeća ponuda
Godišnja ponuda
Maloprodaja – godišnja stopa promjena
1.5
1
0.5
0
-0.5
-1
-1.5
-2
-2.5
-3
stu-14
Ponuda i godišnja izgradnja trgovačkih centara u Zagrebu
centar s planom da se proširi i na Westgate shopping centar.
lis-14
ponuda na zagrebačkom maloprodajnom tržištu prevelika.
brend LPP ušao je na tržište uvodeći pet brendova u Arena shopping
ruj-14
maloprodajnih projekata tijekom prethodnih godina, smatra se da je
povećana privlačnost spomenutog shopping centra. Vodeći poljski
kol-14
Super Konzuma od 2,000 m2. Kao rezultat značajnog broja završenih
prodavaonicu na 3,500 m2 u King Cross shopping centru čime je
srp-14
otvoren shopping centar Meridijan 16 koji uključuje i poslovnicu
LEGO, Bauwelt, Decathlon i LPP. Decathlon je otvorio prvu
lip-14
38,000 m2 sa 1,600 parkirnih mjesta. U prosincu je u Gračanima
zabilježili smo dolazak na tržište nekoliko novih brendova – Napapijri,
svi-14
Rugvici tijekom druge polovice godine. Robna kuća se prostire na
pod utjecajem međunarodnih maloprodajnih lanaca. Kroz godinu
tra-14
proizvođač i trgovac namještajem IKEA otvorio je prvu robnu kuću u
ožu-14
su Müller, Hervis Sports, Deichmann i C&A. Nadalje, švedski
Potražnja
Tijekom 2014. godine potražnja za maloprodajnim prostorom bila je
vlj-14
maloprodajnog objekta dodalo je 30,900 m2 sa zakupnicima kao što
sij-14
shopping centra i parka Supernova u svibnju 2014. Otvaranje
Izvor: Državni zavod za statistiku, 2015.
Izvor: JLL, siječanj 2015.
Druga polovica godine obilježena je Agorokorovim preuzimanjem
Mercatora. Većina Mercator prodavaonica u Hrvatskoj sada posluje
pod brendom Konzum, dok je 95 maloprodajnih objekata na području
Hrvatske prodano drugim maloprodajnim lancima, u skladu s
odlukom Agencije za zaštitu tržišnog natjecanja. Dinova-Diona lanac
prodan je Sparu i vlasnicima nekoliko regionalnih maloprodajnih
lanaca. Maloprodajni lanci kao što su Billa, Lidl, Spar, Kaufland,
Pevel, Metro i Konzum nastavili su širenje u zemlji. Tijekom druge
Zakupnine
Trenutne okolnosti na tržištu i niža kupovna moć tijekom prethodnog
razdoblja prouzročile su pad razine zakupnina maloprodajnih jedinica
u sklopu shopping centara i u centru (high street). Prosječne
zakupnine u prvoklasnim shopping centrima u Zagrebu kreću se u
okvirima od 20 – 22 €/m2/mjesec, dok su prosječne zakupnine za
prvoklasne prostore u centru (high street) zabilježile pad i trenutno se
kreću između 60 € –70€/m2/mjesec.
polovice godine Kaufland je otvorio dvije nove prodavaonice (oko
2,500 m2, obje) koje se nalaze u Zagrebu i Umagu. Pevec je nastavio
ekspanziju otvaranjem tri nove prodavaonice u Kaštel Sućurcu,
Karlovcu i Rijeci. Preuzimanjem šest Getro prodavaonica, Pevec će
proširiti lanac na ukupno 18 prodavaonica u Hrvatskoj tijekom 2015.
godine.
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7
Zagreb City Report – H2 2014
Industrial Market
and DB Schenker’s move to MSan logistic center in Rugvica where it
now operates on 8,000 m2 with 12,000 pallet spaces. A low vacancy
rate continues to match the limited demand as difficult economic
Supply
Croatia’s industrial market remains to be the least developed real
conditions put pressure on retailers, manufacturers and exporters.
estate segment and throughout the year, no new supply was added.
Demand is predominantly driven by shipping companies and retail
The majority of stock is still unsuitable for modern tenants, although
chains. Therefore, it is expected that the development of retail sector
quite functional. The last completion was noted at the end of 2012
will have a crucial impact on the industrial market segment. However,
with the delivery of the first phase of Immopark in Jastrebarsko
the falling retail trade and reduction of available credit has had a
(13,000
m2)
which was purchased by Kaufland. A higher interest from
profound impact on demand and reduced the overall level of
potential developers is still expected, following EU accession, yet
commercial development. Therefore, many retailers and major
another influence on future warehouse supply will be the evolution of
logistics occupiers have temporarily delayed their plans for further
the retail sector. Future development will need to be constructed in
expansion of their activities.
accordance with EU standards
As Croatia is now a member of the European Union, we expect that
Due to current, low construction levels and the dependence on
future demand will come from third party logistics companies entering
project financing, the future supply of modern logistic space over the
the market, who will be looking to cater for smaller retailers who
short to medium term remains uncertain. We are however aware of
outsource their logistics.
several projects which are currently under construction. JGL started
the construction of Svilno 2, located near Rijeka, which will comprise
20,552
m2
of industrial and office space. Ralu Logistika started
construction of its distribution center in Rugvica which will offer
12,000 pallets places, scheduled for completion in 2015.
Furthermore, Lagermax commenced construction of a new logistic
center in Luka municipality (16,700 m2) with no determined delivery
date. In addition, the Zagreb Brewery started construction of a
distribution center which will be used for owner occupation purposes.
Evolution of industrial stock in Zagreb
Prime logistic rents in Zagreb (€/m2/month)
7.00
6.00
5.00
4.00
3.00
2.00
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
850.0
750.0
Source: JLL, January 2015
650.0
550.0
450.0
Rents
The ongoing market climate has had an overall negative impact on
350.0
rental levels. Prime rents are facing a slight downward trend and
range from €5 - 5.25 per m2/month. A notable decrease was seen in
250.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
secondary premises, which range from €3 - 4 per m2/month, with the
possibility of reaching €4.5 m2/month in the best locations. This
Source: JLL, January 2015
includes 15 to 20 year old stock, thus providing smaller and lower
quality industrial buildings.
Demand
The industrial and logistic market remained static throughout 2014,
with notable exceptions being Veletabak’s entrance to the market
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8
Zagreb City Report – H2 2014
Proizvodni i logističko skladišni prostor
Ponuda
Tržište industrijskih i skladišno-logističkih prostora ostalo je najmanje
razvijen segment tržišta nekretnina te se ponuda nije povećala
tijekom godine. Većina ponude je i dalje nesavršena i
nekonvencionalna za moderne zakupnike, iako je funkcionalna.
Zadnji dovršetak projekta zabilježen je krajem 2012. kada je
dovršena prva faza Immoparka u Jastrebarskom (13,000 m2) koju je
kupio Kaufland. Veći interes potencijalnih ulagača očekuje se još od
pristupanja EU, ali dodatni utjecaj na buduću ponudu skladišnog
prostora biti će razvoj sektora maloprodaje. Budući projekti morati će
Potražnja
Industrijsko tržište u Hrvatskoj ostalo je statično tijekom 2014.godine,
uz izuzetak ulaska Veletabaka na tržište i preseljenja DB Schenkera
u MSan logistički centar u Rugvici gdje sada posluje na 8,000 m2 sa
12.000 paletnih mjesta. Niska stopa nepopunjenosti trenutno ide u
korak s ograničenom potražnjom koja je rezultat teških ekonomskih
okolnosti koje pritišću maloprodajne lance, proizvođače i izvoznike.
Potražnja je u većem dijelu generirana od strane prijevozničkih
kompanija i maloprodajnih lanaca. Stoga, očekuje se da će razvoj
maloprodajnog sektora imati ključan utjecaj na segment proizvodnog
biti izgrađeni u skladu sa standardima EU.
i logističko skladišnog prostora. Ipak, opadajući maloprodajni promet
Razvoj tržišta logističkog prostora u Zagrebu
utjecaj na ukupnu razinu komercijalnih projekata. Iz tog razloga su
850.0
i smanjenje raspoloživosti kreditnog financiranja imali su dubok
mnogi maloprodajni lanci i veći korisnici logističkih prostora trenutno
odgodili planove za proširenje aktivnosti.
750.0
650.0
Obzirom da je Hrvatska postala članica Europske unije, vjerujemo da
550.0
će buduća potražnja dolaziti i od neovisnih pružatelja logističkih
450.0
usluga koji na tržište ulaze s planovima za suradnju sa manjim
350.0
trgovcima koji za logistiku koriste vanjske dobavljače.
250.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Zakupnine za prvoklasne logističke prostore u Zagrebu
7.00
Izvor: JLL, siječanj 2015.
6.00
5.00
Kao rezultat niske razine izgradnje trenutnih građevinskih projekata i
4.00
ovisnosti o projektnom financiranju, buduća ponuda modernog
3.00
logističkog prostora tokom kratkog i srednjeg roka ostaje nesigurna.
2.00
Upoznati smo sa nekoliko projekata koji su trenutno u razvoju. JGL
je započeo izgradnju projekta Svilna 2 koji se nalazi pokraj Rijeke, a
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013 2014
Izvor: JLL, siječanj 2015.
obuhvaća 20.552 m2 proizvodnog, skladišnog i uredskog prostora.
Ralu logistika započela je s izgradnjom distributivnog centra u
Rugvici koji će nuditi 12,000 paletnih mjesta, a završetak se očekuje
u 2015. godini. Osim toga, Lagermax je započeo s izgradnjom novog
logističko-distributivnog centra u općini Luka (16.700 m2 ) s
neodređenim datumom završetka. Dodatno, Zagrebačka pivovara
započela je izgradnju distributivnog centra koji će biti korišten za
vlastite potrebe.
Zakupnine
Trenutna situacija na tržištu imala je negativan utjecaj na razine
zakupnina. Zakupnine za prvoklasne prostore kreću se u rasponu 55.25 €/m2/mjesec. Primjetno sniženje cijena zabilježeno je u
sekundarnim prostorima, gdje se zakupnine kreću u rasponu 3-4
€/m2/mjesec, uz mogućnost dostizanja 4.5 €/m2/mjesec na najboljim
lokacijama. Ovo uključuje prostore starosti od 15 do 20 godina koji
su smješteni u manjim industrijskim zgradama slabije kvalitete.
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9
Zagreb City Report – H2 2014
Market Practice / Tržišna praksa
Leasing Market Practice
Tržišna praksa pri zakupu
Lease Length
The average lease length is 3 to 5 years (office) and 3 to 5 years
Trajanje zakupa
Prosječno trajanje zakupa je 3 do 5 godina (uredi) i 3 do 5 godina
(logistics and retail).
(skladišta i maloprodajni prostori).
In a few cases longer leases can be agreed. Shorter leases
U nekim slučajevima moguće je duže trajanje ugovora. Kraći
and/or 3 year break options are increasingly common.
ugovori i/ili opcija raskida zakupa nakon 3 godine postaje sve
učestalija.
Payment Terms
Rents are quoted in € and paid in HRK at the going mid
exchange rate. Rents are payable monthly in advance in HRK
Uvjeti plaćanja
Zakupnine su izražene u € i plative u HRK uz valutnu klauzulu.
(office and retail). Occasionally, rents are paid quarterly in
Zakupnine se plaćaju mjesečno unaprijed u HRK (uredski i
advance for logistics properties.
maloprodajni prostori). Povremeno se zakupnina plaća
tromjesečno unaprijed za logističko-skladišne prostore.
Rental Deposit
It is common to agree on a cash deposit or bank guarantee equal
to 3 months’ rent.
Polog
Uobičajeno je ugovoriti gotovinski polog ili bankovnu garanciju u
The deposit or guarantee can be a 3 month cash deposit or bank
visini tromjesečne zakupnine.
guarantee (retail and office) or a bank guarantee, debenture bond
Polog ili garancija mogu biti tromjesečni gotovinski polog ili
or promissory note for logistics premises.
bankovna garancija (uredi i maloprodaja) ili bankovna garancija,
Indexation is annually in line with European HICP.
obveznica ili zadužnica za logističko-skladišne prostore.
Indeksacija se vrši na godišnjoj razini, u skladu s europskim
Other Charges
Other charges consist of common service charges and individual
charges (direct consumption of electricity, water, heating/cooling
and communal/water contribution fee) (offices and industrial).
Other charges consist of service charges and marketing costs
(retail).
Insurance
The landlord covers costs of building insurance (recovered by
service charge). The tenant covers insurance of own premises,
inventory, contents and civil liabilities.
Incentives
Incentives may be offered by the landlord. This can typically be in
the form of rent free periods, fit-out contributions or contribution
towards moving costs.
harmoniziranim indeksom potrošačkih cijena (HICP).
Ostale pristojbe
Ostale pristojbe uključuju zajedničke operativne troškove i
individualne troškove (izravna potrošnja električne energije, vode,
grijanje/hlađenje i komunalna/vodna naknada) (uredi i skladišta).
Ostale pristojbe uključuju operativne troškove i pristojbe za
marketing (maloprodajni prostori).
Osiguranje
Zakupodavac pokriva troškove osiguranja zgrade (pokriva se iz
pristojbe za operativne troškove). Zakupnik pokriva osiguranje
vlastitog prostora, inventara i obveznu odgovornost.
Poticaji
Zakupodavac može ponuditi poticaje. Poticaji su obično u obliku
razdoblja oslobođenih od plaćanja zakupnine, doprinosa za
uređenje prostora ili za troškove preseljenja.
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10
JLL Office
Mihajla Pupina Boulevard 10L
Belgrade
Serbia
Phone number +381 11 785 0600
Fax number +381 11 785 0597
Contacts
Andrew Peirson
Jana Golubović
Tomislav Gregurić
Managing Director
Research Analyst
Managing Director
SEE Region
SEE Region
Croatia
+381 11 785 0579
+381 11 785 0589
+385 91 4826 194
[email protected]
[email protected]
[email protected]
Zagreb City Report – H2 2014
SEE Region
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prior written consent of Jones Lang LaSalle. It is based on material that we believe to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer
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