on point
Belgrade City Report
Q3 2013
Izveštaj o Beogradu
T3 2013
BELGRADE
Q3 2013
REAL
ESTATE
2 On Point • Belgrade City Report• Q3 2013
Economy/Investment
Economy
The reconstructed Government is focusing mainly on improving the
electricity, gas, steam and air conditioning supply, mining and
processing industries.
business operating climate in Serbia, in order to attract more
foreign investors and strengthen the manufacturing sector. Since
According to IHS Global Insight, the unemployment rate stands at
the exit of US Steel at the beginning of 2012, the main pillar of the
24.6%. The reduction of such a high unemployment rate will be
Serbian economy is FIAT’s plant in Kragujevac, as well as its
achieved through the improvement of the business environment in
suppliers and other companies in this sector that entered the
Europe and with the entrance of foreign companies to the market.
market after FIAT. In August, Serbia’s exports reached an historical
high, thanks to the arrangement with FIAT. According to the
National Statistical office, real GDP growth in the second quarter of
2013, compared to the same period of last year, was 0.2%.A
significant growth of gross value added sectors was recorded in
information and communication (9.6%), electrical energy, gas and
Unemployment Rate (%)
Stopa nazaposlenosti (%)
30
25
20
steam supply (3.2%) and mining (2.8%). A significant decrease was
15
recorded in the construction sector (-42.5%) and trade (-4.7%).
10
5
According to IHS Global insight, the forecasted GDP growth for
2013 is 1.6%, due to the political stabilization and the good
performance of FIAT.
GDP Growth (%)
0
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 2013e 2014f
Source/Izvor: IHS Global Insight, Country Report, October 2013
Rast BDP(%)
6.0
The average gross salary in August 2013 was RSD 61,797 or
€541,96, presenting an increase of 1.5% in nominal terms in
comparison to July 2013. The average net salary in August 2013
4.0
was RSD 44,770 or €392,64.
2.0
0.0
-2.0
2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013e 2014f
-4.0
Source/Izvor: IHS Global Insight, Country Report, October 2013
Political Situation
Serbia was granted EU candidate status in 2012, which provided a
route for fully-fledged membership by 2025. The December
meeting with the European Council will determine whether Serbia
has completed the necessary EU criteria to start the negotiations.
Serbia still has some way to go before cementing its domestic and
economic credentials, but all indications are positive that it will
According to the Labour Force Survey conducted by the National
successfully complete its transition to EU membership.
Statistical Office, consumer prices in September 2013 remained at
the same level compared to the previous month. Year on year,
Public confidence in the trustworthiness of state institutions has
growth was marked at 4.9%. The highest rate increase was
been improving. One of the government’s targets is to increase
recorded in sectors of communication (0.7%), housing, water,
export growth by 25%, which depends on European economic
electricity, gas and other fuels (0.5%) and transport (0.4%).
recovery.
In August 2013, industrial production noted a 5.7% increase in
physical volume in comparison to the corresponding period of the
previous year. This increase was mostly influenced by the
On Point • Belgrade City Report • Q3 2013 3
Privreda/Investicije
Privreda
Nova konstituisana Vlada Srbije je koncentrisana na uspostavljanje
Tokom avgusta industrijska proizvodnja je zabeležila povećanje od
bolje poslovne klime u državi, privlačenje većeg broja stranih
ovo povećanje najveći uticaj je imao sektor proizvodnje električne
investitora i proširenje sektora proizvodnje. Nakon napuštanja tržišta
energije, gasa, pare i klimatizacije, rudarstvo i prerađivačka
od strane US Steel-a, glavni stub srpske ekonomije je fabrika FIAT u
industrija.
5,7% fizičkog obima u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine. Na
Kragujevcu, njihovi saradnici kao i druge kompanije iz istog sektora
koje su ušle na tržište nakon FIAT-a. Tokom Avgusta 2013. godine
Yields %
izvoz iz Srbije je dostigao istorijski maksimum zahvaljujući
sporazumu sa FIAT-om. Na osnovu zvaničnih podataka koje je
Changes on previous quarter/
Promene u odnosu na
prethodno tromesečje
↕
9.00%
komunikacija (9,6%), električne energije, gasa i pare (3,2%), i
Logistics/Logistički objekti
10.25%
zabeležen privredni rast od 0,2% u odnosu na isti period prethodne
rudarstva (2,8%). Značajan pad bruto dodate vrednosti je zabeležen
↕
9.25%
godine. Najveći rast je zabeležen u sektoru informisanja i
Offices/Kancelarijski prostori
Retail/Maloprodajni prostori
Shopping Centers/tržni centri
↕
Yield/
Stopa prinosa %
↕
objavio Statistički zavod Repubilike Srbije u drugom kvartalu je
Sektor/Sektor
Stope prinosa %
Source/Izvor: Jones Lang LaSalle, October2013
u sektoru građevinarstva, (42,5%) I sektoru trgovine (4,7%).
Prema analizi IHS Global Insight, stopa nezaposlenosti iznosi
Prema predviđanju IHS Global Insight, predviđen rast BDP za 2013.
24,6%. Do smanjenja trenutne visoke stope nezaposlenosti će doći
godinu je 1,6%, zahvaljujući političkoj stabilizaciji i odličnom
poboljšanjem poslovnog okruženja u Evropi kao i ulaskom stranih
poslovaju FIAT-a.
kompanija na tržište.
CPI (%)
Inflacija (%)
Prosečna bruto zarada tokom Avgusta 2013 je iznosila 61,797
dinara odnosno €541,96, predstavljajući nominalni rast od 1.5% u
14
12
10
8
6
4
2
0
poređenju sa Julom 2013 godine. Prosečna neto zarada u Avgustu
je iznosila 44,770 dinara odnosno €392,64.
Politička situacija
Srbija je dobila status kandidata u 2012 godini, koji je obezbedio put
za punopravno članstvo u Evropskoj Uniji do 2025. godine. Na
sastanku Evropskog Saveta u decembru će se utvrditi da li je Srbija
2008
2009
2010
2011
2012 2013e 2014f
Source/Izvor: IHS Global Insight, Country Report, October 2013
Prema Anketi o radnoj snazi koju sprovodi Republlički zavod za
statistiku, potrošačke cene tokom septembra 2013 su ostale na
istom nivou u odnosu na prethodni mesec. Rast potrošačkih cena u
odnosu na isti period prethodne godine je (4,9%). Najveća stopa
rasta je zabeležena u sektoru komunikacije (0,7%), stan, voda,
električna energija, gas i druga goriva (0,5%) i transport (0,4%).
ispunila neophodne EU kriterijume kako bi započela pregovore.
Pred Srbijom se nalazi dugačak put do uspostavljanja domaćeg i
ekonomskog kredibiliteta. Međutim, svi pokazatelji su pozitivni I
ukazuju na uspešan završetak tranzicije i ulazak u Evropsku Uniju.
Poverenje javnosti u pouzdanost državnih institucija je u porastu.
Jedan od ciljeva Vlade je povećanje rasta izvoza za 25%, što veoma
zavisi od ekonomskog oporavka u Evropi.
4 On Point • Belgrade City Report• Q3 2013
Office Market
Supply
The most active occupiers on the market in this quarter were IT and
There were no office completions during the third quarter of 2013
and the total office stock in Belgrade remained at the same level of
615,000 m2. The majority of stock is located in New Belgrade,
(approximately 81%) which makes this the Central Business District
of Belgrade. This district will continue to grow although, no further
new supply will be added to the enduring the remainder of 2013.
professional service companies, followed by consumer goods,
pharmaceutical and construction companies. The majority of tenants
in the Belgrade market still seek floor space sized between 100 and
500 m2.
Vacancy
Since 2010, the vacancy rate has been constantly decreasing. The
There is only one office project under active construction, namely
third quarter recorded a 12% vacancy rate in A and B class office
the Old Mill Office Tower (3,870 m2), scheduled for completion in Q3
buildings in Belgrade. We are expecting a further drop over the next
2014. It comprises a mixed-use hotel/commercial complex in the
12 months due to very low supply.
close vicinity of Belgrade Fair.
Total Class A & B Stock
A i B (m2)
(m2)
/ Ukupna ponuda prostora klase
700,000
600,000
500,000
400,000
300,000
200,000
100,000
0
Office Completions (m2) and Vacancy Rates (%) Class A & B
/ Završena izgradnja (m2) i stopa nepopunjenosti (%)
100,000
25%
80,000
20%
60,000
15%
40,000
10%
20,000
5%
0
2005 2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Class B
Class A
0%
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source/Izvor: Jones Lang LaSalle, October 2013
Source/Izvor: Jones Lang LaSalle, October 2013
Demand
Rents and Yields
During Q3 2013, gross take-up stood at 10,460 m2, which comprised
Prime office rents in Belgrade remained stable in Q3 2013. Headline
5,920 m2 of new lease acquisitions, 3,240 m2 of rent renewals and
rents for A class premises in New Belgrade range between €14 and
1,300
m2 of
realized expansion. The majority (78%) of these
transactions took place in New Belgrade.
€16/m2/month and we do not anticipate any changes over the short
term. However, landlords continue to offer incentives such as rent
free periods (usually three months), fit-out contributions and
Gross take-up in Q3 2013 recorded a slight increase in comparison
additional free parking spaces. Rents for B class office space across
to the corresponding period of the previous year. Since the
New Belgrade range between €9 and €13/m2/month and for
beginning of the year, the overall activity marks an increase of 23%
downtown locations, between €10 and €12/m2/month.
in comparison to the same period of 2012. There were a total of 20
transactions and the average deal size was 523 m2.
The prime office yield in Belgrade marked a slight drop and currently
stands at 9.00%.
On Point • Belgrade City Report • Q3 2013 5
Kancelarijski prostor
Ponuda
Većina zakupaca na tržištu u ovom kvartalu su bile IT i kompanije
koje se bave pružanjem profesionalnih usluga, zatim kompanije
Tokom trećeg kvartala 2013. godine nije zabeležena izgradnja
novog kancelarijskog prostora, i ukupna ponuda poslovnog prostora
je ostala na istom nivou od 615,000 m2. Oko 81% poslovnog
potrošačkih dobara, farmaceutske i građevinske kompanije. Većina
zakupaca na tržištu Beograda i dalje traži kancelarisjke prostore od
100 do 500 m2.
prostora se nalazi na Novom Beogradu čineći ovaj deo grada
poslovnim centrom Beograda koji je u konstantnom razvoju. Do
Raspoloživi prostor
kraja godine neće biti nove ponude poslovnog prostora.
Od 2010 godine, stopa nepopunjenog prostora je u konstantnom
Trenutno je samo jedan projekat u fazi aktivne izgradnje i to je Stari
padu. Treći kvartal beleži 12% stopu nepopunjenosti prostora u
Mlin (3,870 m2), čiji je završetak predviđen za treći kvartal 2014
poslovnim zgradama klase A i B. Očekujemo dalji pad u narednih 12
godine. Projekat obuhvata hotelski/poslovni kompleks u blizini
meseci zbog slabe ponude novoizgrađenog kancelarijskog prostora.
Beogradskog sajma.
Prime Rents €/m2/month
Cene zakupa prvoklasnog prostora €/m2/mesečno
Prime Office Yields %
Stopa prinosa prvoklasnog prostora %
25
9.75%
9.50%
9.25%
9.00%
8.75%
8.50%
8.25%
8.00%
20
15
10
5
0
Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3 Q1 Q3
2009 2009 2010 2010 2011 2011 2012 2012 2013 2013
2006 2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 Q1 Q2 Q3
2013 2013 2013
Source/Izvor: Jones Lang LaSalle, October 2013
Source/Izvor: Jones Lang LaSalle, October 2013
Visine zakupa i stope prinosa
Potražnja
Cene zakupa prvoklasnog prostora u Beogradu su ostale na istom
Tokom trećeg kvartala ukupan bruto zakup je iznosio 10,460
m 2,
od
nivou u trećem kvartalu 2013.godine. Cene zakupa kancelarijskog
toga se 5,920m2 odnosi na nove transakcije, 3,240m2 na obnove
prostora klase A na Novom Beogradu kreću se u rasponu od €14 do
postojećih ugovora o zakupu i 1,300m2 na proširenje postojećeg
€16/m2/mesečno i ne očekujemo nikakve promene u kratkoročnom
prostora. Oko 78% transakcija se dogodilo na Novom Beogradu.
periodu. Vlasnici prostora i dalje nude podsticaje poput rent-free
perioda (uglavnom 3 meseca), dodatna parking mesta bez naknade,
Ukupna bruto kvadratura u trećem kvartalu 2013. godine beleži mali
učešće zakupodavca u troškovima završnih radova. Cene zakupa
rast u odnosu na isti period prethodne godine. Ukupna aktivnost od
za kancelarijski prostor klase B na Novom Beogradu iznose između
početka godine je porasla za oko 23% u odnosu na isti period tokom
€9 do €13/m2/mesečno a centru grada od €10 do €12/m2/mesečno.
2012 godine. Ukupno je zabeleženo 20 transakcija, sa prosečnom
zakupljenom kvadraturom od 523 m2.
Stopa prinosa za prvoklasne kancelarijske prostore u Beogradu
beleži mali pad i iznosi 9,00.
6 On Point • Belgrade City Report• Q3 2013
Retail Market
Supply
Demand
Since the completion of Stadium Center at Voždovac,which
added 30,000
m2
to the market, there are no further shopping
H&M entered the market in the third quarter and opened stores in
Delta City and Stadium centre at Vozdovac, both covering an
centre deliveries expected for the remainder of the year. The
area of 2,500 m2. The demand from international retailers
shopping centre stock remained at the same level of 188,700m2.
remains strong and is directed toward modern shopping
Modern shopping centre GLA in Belgrade stands at
GLA, providing only
78m2 of
128,000m2
modern retail space per 1,000
inhabitants, which positions Belgrade at the lowest position on
premises. Due to the limited supply of modern shopping centres,
new brands and retailers looking to expand are signing contracts
with expanding retail parks outside of Belgrade.
the European shopping centre scale.
Total Annual Spend in € per Capita in Belgrade
The delivery of Stadium Vozdovac shopping centre further
increased the polarisation of prime shopping assets in Belgrade,
where 85% of Serbia's prime shopping centres are located.
There is only one prime shopping centre outside of Belgrade,
located in Kragujevac.
Shopping Center Stock in Belgrade (m2)
Ponuda tržnih centara u Beogradu (m2)
200,000
2,300
2,250
2,200
2,150
2,100
2,050
2,000
1,950
1,900
2009
150,000
2010
2011
2012
Source/Izvor: Statistical Office of the Republic of Serbia
100,000
The vacancy rate in prime shopping centres remains close to
zero, due to the lack of new modern supply and the majority of
50,000
current vacant space is mostly due to tenant mix changes.
0
2007 2008 2009 2010 2011 2012 2013
Source/Izvor: Jones Lang LaSalle, October 2013
Over the past few years, the demand for retail units on the high
street has decreased, mainly because retailers are interested in
space within modern shopping developments.
The only expected handover of a retail scheme by the end of the
year will be within the existing Retail park Big CEE in Novi Sad.
Currently, there is one retail project under construction located in
Sabac city, namely Capitol Park Sabac with 2,850 m2 GLA,
scheduled for Q1 2014. Other, larger projects announced for
construction commencement are Visnjicka Plaza Shopping
centre (40,000m2 GLA) and Delta Planet (68,000 m2 GLA), both
without scheduled delivery dates.
Rents and Yields
Prime rents and yields remained stable in Q3. Prime shopping
centre rent for a 100 to 200 m2 retail unit stands at €65/m2/month,
while rent for such a unit on Knez Mihajlova Street is
€80/m2/month. Average rents in prime shopping centres in
Belgrade range between €27 and €29/m2/month. The prime
shopping centre yield stands at 9.00%.
On Point • Belgrade City Report • Q3 2013 7
Maloprodajni prostori
Ponuda
centru Delta City, a zatim u Stadion centru na Voždovcu.
ponudu modernog prodajnog prostora na tržištu za 30,000m2,
međutim do kraja godine nema izgleda za otvaranje tržnih
centara. Ukupna ponuda maloprodajnog prostora u trećem
kvartalu je ostala na istom nivou od 188,700m2. Maloprodajni
prostor u prvoklasnim centrima u Beogradu obuhvata 128,000m2,
što je 78m2 modernog prodajnog prostora u tržnim centrima na
1,000 stanovnika, pozicionirajući Beograd na najnižu poziciju na
evropskoj skali tržnih centara.
Završetak Stadion centra Voždovac je povećao ponudu u
prvoklasnim centrima u Beogradu, gde se nalazi 85% prvoklasnih
centara u Srbiji. Izvan Beograda se nalazi jedan prvoklasni tržni
centar, u Kragujevcu.
Prime Shopping Center Yields
Stopa prinosa prvoklasnih tržnih centara
9.75%
Potražnja stranih brendova je i dalje jaka i usmerena ka modernim
prodajnim prostorima. Međutim, zbog ograničene i nedovoljne
količine modernih tržnih centara, novi brendovi ili brendovi koji
žele da se prošire potpisuju ugovore sa maloprodajnim
parkovima van Beograda koji su u ekspanziji.
Prime rents €/m2/month
Cene zakupa prvoklasnog prostora €/m2/mesečno
120
100
80
60
40
20
0
2009
Q1 2010
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q12012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2013
Završetak izgradnje Stadion centra na Voždovcu je povećao
High Street
Shopping Centers
Source/Izvor: Jones Lang LaSalle, October 2013
9.50%
9.25%
Stopa nepopunjenosti u prvoklasnim tržnim centrima je i dalje
približna nuli, i većina trenutno slobodnog poslovnog prostora je
zbog promena zakupaca.
9.00%
Q1 2010
Q2 2010
Q3 2010
Q4 2010
Q1 2011
Q2 2011
Q3 2011
Q4 2011
Q1 2012
Q2 2012
Q3 2012
Q4 2012
Q1 2013
Q2 2013
Q3 2013
8.75%
Tokom prethodnih godina potražnja za maloprodajnim prostorom
u Knez Mihajlovoj i okolnim ulicama je opala, uglavnom zbog
većeg interesovanja za modernim tržnim centrima.
Source/Izvor: Jones Lang LaSalle, October 2013
Visine zakupa i stope prinosa
Do kraja godine se očekuje samo završetak maloprodajnog
prostora u okviru postojećeg maloprodajnog parka Big CEE u
Zakupi i stope prinosa prvoklasnih prostora ostali su nepromenjeni
Novom Sadu. Trenutno je jedan projekat u fazi aktivne izgradnje,
u trećem tromesečju 2013.godine. Visina zakupa prvoklasnog
Capitol Park Šabac poršine 2,850m2, čiji se završetak izgradnje
maloprodajnog prostora površine od 100 do 200 m2 u modernim
očekuje u prvom kvartalu 2014 godine. Drugi najavljeni projekti su
tržnim centrima iznosi €65/m2/mesečno, dok se isti takav prostor
tržni centar Višnjička Plaza (40,000
m 2)
i Delta Planet (68,000
m2), bez definisanog datuma završetka.
u Knez Mihajlovoj ulici može iznajmiti za €80/m2/mesecno.
Prosečne visine zakupa u prvoklasnim tržnim centrima u
Beogradu kreću se od €27 do €29/m2/mesečno. Stopa prinosa za
Potražnja
Novi brend koji je ušao na tržište tokom trećeg kvartala je H&M
koji je otvorio prodavnice veličine 2,500 m2 prvobitno u tržnom
prvoklasne tržne centre iznosi 9%.
8 On Point • Belgrade City Report• Q3 2013
Market Practice
Leasing Market Practice
Tržišna praksa zakupa prostora
Lease length
• Average lease length is 5 years, 3 – 5 years are common in
Dužina zakupa
the city centre and 5 (rarely 7) years on the outskirts
• In a few cases longer leases can be agreed
• 3 year break options are becoming more common
Payment Terms
• Rents are quoted in € and paid monthly in advance in either €
or RSD according to the exchange rate on the day of the
payment
Rental Deposit
• It is common to agree on a cash deposit or bank guarantee
• Prosečna dužina zakupa je 5 godina - uglavnom se prostori u
centru grada zakupljuju na 3 – 5 godina, a na periferiji na 5
(retko 7 godina)
• U malom broju slučajeva se vrši zakup prostora na duži period
• Sve su češće mogućnosti raskida ugovora nakon 3 godine
Uslovi plaćanja
• Cene zakupa se navode u € a plaćaju se mesečno unapred ili u
€ ili u RSD prema valutnom kursu na dan plaćanja
Depozit
• Praksa je da se depozit plaća u kešu ili bankarskom garancijom
equal to 3 months rent for all types of premises (office, retail
u iznosu od tri mesečne rente za sve vrste prostora
and industrial)
(kancelarijski, maloprodajni i industrijski)
• Indexation is annually in line with European CPI
Other Charges
• Service and energy charges (Utilities and direct consumption
are paid separately)(offices and industrial)
• Service charges and marketing costs (retail)
Insurance
• The landlord covers costs of building insurance (recovered by
service charges). The tenant covers insurance of own
premises, contents and civil liabilities
Incentives
• Offered by the landlords in form of 3 month rent free period, fitout contributions and free of charge additional parking space
• Indeksacija se vrši godišnje i usklađena je sa evropskim rastom
potrošačkih cena
Ostali troškovi
• Troškovi usluga i potrošnje električne energije (troškovi
održavanja i direktne potrošnje plaćaju se posebno)
(kancelarijski i industrijski prostori)
• Troškovi usluga i marketinga (maloprodajni prostori)
Osiguranje
• Vlasnik prostora pokriva troškove osiguranja zgrade (naplaćuje
se od naknade za troškove usluga). Zakupac plaća osiguranje
za sopstvene prostorije, pokretnu imovinu i civilna lica
Podsticaji
• Vlasnici prostora prilikom izdavanja mogu davati i podsticaje u
vidu izdavanja prostora na period od 3 meseca bez naknade,
uređenja prostora o sopstvenom trošku ili dodatna parking
mesta gratis
Jones Lang LaSalle offices
Belgrade
Bulevar Mihajla Pupina 10 L, 11070 Novi Beograd
Serbia
+ 381 11 7850 600
Contacts
Andrew Peirson
Managing Director
Jones Lang LaSalle
Serbia
Jana Golubović
Junior Research Analyst
Jones Lang LaSalle
Serbia
+381 11 785 0579
[email protected]
www.joneslanglasalle.com
+381 11 785 0589
[email protected]
www.joneslanglasalle.com
Belgrade City Report Q3 2013
OnPoint reports from Jones Lang LaSalle include quarterly and annual highlights of real estate activity, performance and specialised
surveys and forecasts that uncover emerging trends.
www.joneslanglasalle.com
COPYRIGHT © JONES LANG LASALLE IP, INC. 2013. All rights reserved. No part of this publication may be reproduced or transmitted in any form or by any means without prior written consent of
Jones Lang LaSalle. It is based on material that we believe to be reliable. Whilst every effort has been made to ensure its accuracy, we cannot offer any warranty that it contains no factual errors. We
would like to be told of any such errors in order to correct them.
.
Download

Belgrade City Report