A BRIDGE BETWEEN EAST AND WEST: TURKEY’S ENERGY POLICY
Azime Telli*
ABSTRACT
Turkey with a strategic importance for oil and natural gas producers is also a
candidate to be an energy market for the future. This paper deals with energy policy
of Turkey as a bridge for energy to connect Europe to Asia and Middle East. The
main variable that will influence the future of Turkey is about the decision on the
energy transfer pipelines that will transfer the energy between the Asian and the
European countries. Because of its geographical and strategic location, Turkey is in
an important position to vary European countries supply. This article identifies the
differences between being an energy corridor, hub or center. Turkey implements
energy as a strategic foreign policy tool. This strategy, which is aimed at creating an
energy transit corridor, can become proactive, making Turkey a hub or a center.
Key Words: Energy policy, energy security, Turkey, pipeline, energy corridor,
geopolitic.
DOĞU VE BATI ARASINDA BİR KÖPRÜ: TÜRKİYE’NİN ENERJİ
POLİTİKASI
Petrol ve doğal gaz üreticileri için stratejik bir öneme sahip olan Türkiye, gelecekte
enerji pazarı olmaya da aday bir ülkedir. Bu çalışmada, enerji kaynaklarının Orta
Doğu’dan Avrupa ülkelerine transferinde köprü konumunda olan Türkiye’nin enerji
politikası ele alınacaktır. Türkiye’nin geleceğini etkileyecek olan temel değişken
enerjinin Asya’dan Avrupa ülkelerine transferinde kullanılacak boru hatları
konusundaki tercihidir. Türkiye, coğrafi ve stratejik konumu nedeni ile Avrupa
*
PhD Student of Kocaeli University in International Relations, Lecturer at Ondokuz Mayis University.
602
ülkelerinin enerji tedarik kaynaklarının çeşitlendirilmesinde önemli bir ülkedir.
Çalışmada enerji koridoru, enerji üssü ve enerji merkezi kavramları arasındaki fark
ortaya konulacaktır. Enerji, Türkiye’nin stratejik dış politika araçları arasında yer
almaktadır. Enerji transit koridoru haline getirmeyi hedefleyen bu stratejinin
proaktifleştirilmesi Türkiye’yi enerji üssü ya da merkezi haline getirebilir.
Anahtar Kavramlar: Enerji politikası, enerji güvenliği, Türkiye, boru hattı, enerji
koridoru, jeopolitik.
Introduction
Turkey with a strategic importance for oil and natural gas producers is also a
candidate to be an energy market for the future. Turkey can be regarded as an energy
corridor mainly because it is a natural bridge between Western Europe, the Southern
Mediterranean and hydrocarbon rich regions in North and North-East Eurasia, the
North-East Caspian and the East and South-East Middle East.
The main variable that will influence the future of Turkey is about the decision on the
energy transfer pipelines that will transfer the energy between the Asian and the
European countries. In fact, 73% of world’s proven oil and 72% of the world’s proven
gas reserves are located in Turkey’s neighborhood, which includes the Russian
Federation, the Caspian and the Middle Eastern countries as suppliers.1
As a result, Turkey has emerged as an energy transit country, yet with further
aspirations to become an energy hub, and even an energy center. Because of its
geographical and strategic location, Turkey is in an important position to vary
European countries supply.2
Turkey’s energy profile
Turkey is at the crossroads of several volatile, strategically positions and has
economically important regions, including the triangle of the Middle East, Central
Asia and Caucasus. At present Turkey is the world’s 17th largest country in terms of
1
Cenk Sevim, “Geçmişten Günümüze Enerji Güvenliği ve Paradigma Değişimleri”, Stratejik
Araştırmalar Dergisi, Yıl. 7, Sayı. 13, Mayıs 2009, p. 93.
2
Elnur Osmanov, “Rusya’nın Süper Güç Olma Hesapları ve Enerji”,
http://www.tasam.org/index.php?altid=75 ( Accessed 17 May 2010).
603
economy and approximately its population are 73 million people in 2010, so Turkey’s
energy needs are increasing rapidly.3
Total final energy consumption of Turkey has grown rapidly in the last decade. The
energy demand of Turkey is growing by 8% annually, one of the highest rates in the
world.4 Despite being encircled by the world’s largest energy-wealthy regions, Turkey
can be called as an energy poor country.
As a net importer, and itself a major market for producers Turkey’s importance lies in
its ability and willingness to develop a major transit system for gas as well as oil,
enabling hydrocarbon resources to access European markets by pipeline routes from
such diverse regions around Turkey, such as the Middle East, the Caspian Region and
Central Asia.5
Turkey’s energy policy as a transit country
Turkey’s economy requires growing new raw materials, however; limited domestic
natural resources oblige her to meet its demand by buying from external resources.
Therefore, energy policy of Turkey has direct links with her foreign policy.6
The density of Turkey’s demand from outside, which means that 74% of the total
primary energy consumption needs a supply of energy from surrounding regions and
countries, has been increasing year by year. Therefore, Turkey’s relation with the
countries which imports its energy is a critical issue in terms of foreign policy. In
addition, Turkey’s geopolitical location is one of a crossing state for the countries
with energy resources to export.7
Thus, the issues of energy security, energy diplomacy and a national energy strategy
in Turkey’s foreign policy are a concern not just for Ankara, but also for many related
countries and Europe. Turkey’s national energy policy consists of three components:8
3
The World Factbook-Turkey, CIA, https://www.cia.gov/library/publications/the-worldfactbook/geos/tu.html/ (Accessed 21 Jun 2013).
4
World Energy Outlook 2011, IEA,
www.worldenergyoutlook.org/media/weowebsite/2011/es_turkish.pdf/ (Accessed 24 Jun 2013).
5
Energy Security and Sustainable Development in Asia and the Pacific, Policy Options for Energy
Security and Sustainable Development 2010, UN Economic and Social Commission for Asia and the
Pacific, s. 5, http://www.unescap.org/esd/energy/ (Accessed 05 Jun 2013).
6
Mehmet Bülent Uludağ et al, “Turkey's Role in Energy Diplomacy from Competition to Cooperation:
Theoretical and Factual Projections”, International Journal of Energy Economics and Policy, Vol. 3,
Special Issues, 2013, p. 105.
7
Mustafa Balat, “Security of energy supply in Turkey: Challenges and solutions”, Energy Conversion
and Management, 51, 2010, p. 2002.
8
T.C. Dışişleri Bakanlığı, Türkiye’nin Enerji Stratejisi, http://www.mfa.gov.tr/turkiye_nin-enerjistratejisi.tr.mfa/ (Accessed 20 Jun 2013).
604
The second one is to ensure a sustainable, high quality and cheap energy supply. The
third is to function as a bridge of energy by maintaining the country’s geopolitical
opportunities.
In this geographical position, Turkey directly or indirectly borders the oil and gas rich
areas of the world. Surrounding regions, Middle East, North Africa, Caspian Basin
and Russian Federation are all rich in oil and gas reserves. Among them, the latest
reserves have been discovered in Caspian Sea. In the Caspian region, Kazakhstan,
Turkmenistan and Azerbaijan are the countries that have substantial gas and oil
reserves.
It is possible to say that, energy and sources of energy are directly related with the
countries and region’s destiny. Turkey’s role as a gateway through which oil and gas
enter the EU is becoming increasingly important as the EU deals with the interrelated
problems of ensuring energy security and the provisions of energy supplies from
multiple sources at competitive prices.9
Turkey’s energy strategy
Turkey as an energy transit corridor implies a variety of oil and gas pipelines, and
other sorts of transportation, originating from Russia, the Caspian and the Middle
East, not only for the Turkish market, but also for Europe and other markets via the
Mediterranean.10
Turkey, in this scenario, receives certain transit fees; however, it fails to prioritise
domestic needs, is satisfied with average transit terms and conditions, and can not reexport a considerable amount of the oil and gas passing through its lands.
Turkey as an energy hub stresses Turkey’s extensive influence on a web of oil and gas
pipelines as well as Liquefied Natural Gas (LNG) trade, not only in terms of its ability
to influence transit terms and conditions, but also in re-exporting some of the
hydrocarbons passing through this system.11
9
Arzu Yorkan, “Avrupa Birliği’nin Enerji Politikası ve Türkiye’ye Etkileri”, Bilgesam, s. 25,
www.bilgesam.org/tr/Makaleler/Abd/Avrupa%20Birliginin%20Enerji%20Politikasi%20Ve%20Turkiy
eye%20Etkileri.pdf/ (Accessed 15 Jun 2013).
10
Mert Bilgin, “Turkey’s Energy Strategy: What Difference Does It Maket o Become an Energy
Transit Corridor, Hub or Center?”, UNISCI Discussion Paper, No 23, p. 114.
11
Justyna Misiagiewicz, “Turkey as an Energy Hub in the Mediterranean Region”, Spectrum: Journal
of Global Studies, 4:1, 2011, p. 111.
605
Compatibility between international agreements and the domestic energy mix is of
utmost significance in avoiding a negative impact of one on the other and describes
the level of success if Turkey becomes an energy hub.
Turkey as an energy center depicts a situation in which Turkey’s energy hub features
have been supported by massive investment, such as in nuclear power plants, a
renewable energy program and a comprehensive infrastructure composed of
additional refineries, natural gas storage facilities, LNG trains, vessels, marine
terminals and ports. Turkey as an energy center also requires the achievement of
sufficient energy intensity and a sustainable energy mix.12
According to this approach Turkey as a corridor refers to East-West pipelines. Turkey
as an energy hub implies East-West and North-South pipelines. Turkey as an energy
center defines multidimensional pipelines with extensive capacities as well as storage
facilities to balance and regulate the flow of oil and gas from suppliers to markets.
This categorization, which is extensively based on pipelines, skips the significant
relationship between energy geopolitics, foreign policy initiatives and industry.13
It is therefore useful to point out that Turkey’s interest in becoming an energy transit
corridor, hub or center passed through four phases:14
1. Early phase with political-cultural concerns: 1991-1994.
2. East-West energy corridor originating from Caspian: 1994-2005.
3. East-West energy corridor originating from Eurasia and the Middle East: 20052009.
4. East-West and North-South energy transit hub originating from Russia, the Caspian
Sea and the Middle East: 2009 and onwards.
Consequently, Turkey’s energy discourse turned into a “retroactive energy strategy”
arising from the interaction of Turkey with concerned countries:15
1-with the US, especially with oil and gas pipelines from the Caspian Sea, which led
to the BTC oil and BTE gas pipelines;
2- with the EU as well as Greece and Italy with natural gas pipelines as in the cases of
Turkey-Greece-Italy interconnections and the Nabucco project;
12
Gökhan Bacik, “Turkey and Pipeline Politics”, Turkish Studies, 7:2, 2006, p. 300.
Gareth M. Winrow, “Turkey and the East-West Gas Transportation Corridor”, Turkish Studies, 5:2,
2004, p. 33.
14
Bilgin, ibid, p. 111.
15
Mehmet Bülent Uludağ et al, “Turkey's Role in Energy Diplomacy from Competition to
Cooperation: Theoretical and Factual Projections”, International Journal of Energy Economics and
Policy, Vol. 3, Special Issues, 2013, p. 110.
13
606
3-with Russia with the Russia West and Blue Stream gas pipelines as well as the
proposed Samsun-Ceyhan oil pipeline project;
4-with Azerbaijan and Georgia, with oil and gas transportation from the Caspian Sea
to Turkey;
5-with Iran with the Tabriz-Erzurum-Ankara gas pipeline on the one hand and further
extension projects from Turkmenistan to Turkey via Iran on the other;
6- with Iraq not only with the Kirkuk-Yumurtalik oil pipeline but also with the
possibility of including Iraqi gas within the Nabucco pipeline;
7- with Iraq, Syria and Egypt with the extension of the Arab Gas pipeline to Turkey,
and possibly to Europe via Nabucco;
8- with Qatar, with the possibility of a gas pipeline extension to Turkey and more
LNG trade via Turkey;
9- with Israel with the possibility of extending pipelines from Ceyhan to Haifa.
Conclusions
Fossil energy (oil, coal and natural gas) is the most important energy sources for
modern human life. Energy demand, especially electricity and natural gas, of Turkey
is projected to grow by 8% annually. It should be noted that approximately 74% of
Turkey’s energy demand is met by imports from other countries.
Turkey has several projects about natural gas’s usage in country and its transport to
Europe. Also, this trend is likely to continue in the near future. In order to realize the
aim of becoming the energy bridge between the West and East, Turkey should have
an energy policy compatible with that of EU.
Europe and Turkey are rapidly growing importers and consumers of natural gas, due
to the fact that Turkey is surrounded by major gas exporting countries in the Middle
East and the Middle Asia. It is expected that significant amounts of crude oil and
natural gas will be transported via Turkey to the European countries in the near future.
Turkey, under these conditions, emerges as an energy corridor with certain
geopolitical advantages. Can Turkey move on from being an energy transit country to
an energy hub, or even a center, with strategic advantages? This may be possible, yet
it is constrained by certain discrepancies and it is highly related to several
contingencies.
First of all, Turkey will need, and in fact is in search of, the construction of additional
oil and gas pipelines under good contractual terms from suppliers such as
607
Turkmenistan and Iran. Secondly, Turkey suffers not only from “take or pay” and “no
re-export” obligations in its international gas agreements, but also from inconsistency
in its domestic energy structures.16
Bibliography
Ali Tekin and Iwa Walterova, “Turkey’s Geopolitical Role: The Energy Angle”,
Middle East Policy, Volume 14, No 1, 2007, p. 84–94.
Ali Tekin and Paul A. Williams, “EU–Russian Relations and Turkey’s Role as an
Energy Corridor”, Europe-Asia Studies, Volume 61, No 2, 2009, p. 337-356.
Aslıhan Turan, “Hazar Havzasında Enerji Diplomasisi”, Bilge Strateji Jeopolitik
Ekonomi-Politik ve Sosyo-Kültürel Araştırmalar Dergisi, Cilt 1, Sayı 2, Bahar 2010,
p.2-38.
Batu Aksoy “Enerjide Arz Güvenliği: Politikalar ve Öneriler: Enerjide Arz
Güvenliğinin Sağlanması ve Türkiye Enerji Stratejisi”, TÜSİAD Enerji Çalışma
Grubu Konferansı, Ceylan Intercontinental Hotel, İstanbul, 2007.
Bezen Balamir Coşkun and Richard Carlson, “New Energy Geopolitics: Why does
Turkey Matter?”, Insight Turkey, Volume 12, No 3, 2010, p. 205–220.
Bircan Dokuzlar, Dünya Güç Dengesinde Yeni Silah Doğal Gaz, İstanbul, IQ
Yayınları, 2006.
BP
Statistical
Review
of
World
Energy
2011,
BP,
2011,
www.bp.com/statisticalreview/ , (Accessed 15 March 2013).
Brezezinski, Z., Büyük Satranç Tahtası: Amerika’nın Küresel Üstünlüğü ve Bunun
Jeostratejik Gereklilikleri, çev. Y. Türedi, İstanbul, İnkilap Kitabevi, 2005.
Cenk Pala, “21. Yüzyıl Dünya Enerji Dengesinde Petrol ve Doğal Gazın Yeri ve
Önemi” , Avrasya Dosyası, Cilt 9, Sayı 1, Bahar 2003, p. 5-38.
Cenk Sevim, “Küresel Enerji Jeopolitiği ve Enerji Güvenliği”, Journal of Yaşar
University, 26 (7), 2012, p. 4378-4391.
Deniz Ülke Arıboğan, Mert Bilgin, “New Energy Order Politics (Neopolitics): From
Geopolitics to Energepolitics”, Uluslararası İlişkiler Dergisi, Volume 5, No 20, 2009,
p. 109-132.
16
Gareth Winrow, “Possible Consequences of a New Geopolitical Game In Eurasia On Turkey as an
Emerging Energy Transport Hub”, Turkish Policy Quarterly, Vol. 5, No. 2, Summer 2006, p. 50.
608
Emre İşeri ve Oguz Dilek, “The limitations of Turkey’s new foreign policy activism
in the Caucasian regional security complexity”, Turkish Studies, Volume 12, No 1,
2011, p. 41–54.
Emre İşeri and others, “Jeopolitik Rekabetten Enerji İşbirliğine: Türkiye-Rusya
İlişkileri”, Cüneyt Yenigün, Ertan Efegil (der.), Türkiye’nin Değişen Dış Politikası,
Ankara, Nobel Yayıncılık, 2010.
Gareth M. Winrow, “Turkey and the East-West Gas Transportation Corridor”,
Turkish Studies, 5:2, 2004, p. 24-42.
Gareth
M.
Winrow, “Energy Security in the Black Sea: Caspian Region”,
Perceptions, Güz 2005, p. 85 – 98.
Gökhan Bacik, “Turkey and Pipeline Politics”, Turkish Studies, 7:2, 2006, p. 293-306.
Hasret Çomak, Dünya Jeopolitiğinde Türkiye, İstanbul, Hiperlink Yayınevi, 2011.
Hikmet Ulubay, İmparatorluk'tan Cumhuriyet'e Petropolitik, Ankara, De Ki Basım
Yayım, 2008.
I.Sohn, “Energy-Supply Security and Energy Intensity: Some Observations from the
1970-2005”, Interval Minerals & Energy - Raw Materials Report, Volume 23, No 4,
2008, p. 145-161.
International Energy Outlook 2011, U.S. Energy Information Administration, 2011,
www.eia.gov/forecasts/ieo/pdf/0484%282011%29.pdf/, (Accessed 03 May 2013).
İdris Demir, “Bakü-Tiflis-Ceyhan Ham Petrol Boru Hattının Türkiye Açısından
Önemi”, Ahmet Hamdi Aydın, Seyhan Taş ve Saniye Adıgüzel (ed.), Bölgesel
Sorunlar ve Türkiye Sorunlar-Tehditler-Fırsatlar, Kahramanmaraş, KSÜ Yayınları,
2008.
J. Elkind and Carlos Pascual, Energy Security, Economics, Politics, Stategies and
Implications, Washington, The Brookings Institution, 2010.
John Roberts,
The Turkish Gate: Energy Transit and Security Issues, Brussels,
Centre for European Policy Studies, 2004.
Joseph S. Nye et al., Küresel Çatışmayı ve İşbirliğini Anlamak, Renan Akman (çev.),
İstanbul, İş Bankası Yayınları, 2011.
Justyna Misiagiewicz, “Turkey as an Energy Hub in the Mediterranean Region”,
Spectrum: Journal of Global Studies, 4:1, 2011, p. 107-126.
Kerem Alkin ve Sabit Atman, Küresel Petrol Stratejilerinin Jeopolitik Açıdan Dünya
ve Türkiye Üzerindeki Etkileri, İstanbul, İstanbul Ticaret Odası, Yayın No: 2006-48.
609
Lutz Kleveman, Yeni Büyük Oyun Orta Asya’da Kan ve Petrol, Hür Güldü(çev.),
İstanbul, Everest Yayınları, 2003.
Mehmet Bülent Uludağ et al, “Turkey's Role in Energy Diplomacy from Competition
to Cooperation: Theoretical and Factual Projections”, International Journal of Energy
Economics and Policy, Vol. 3, Special Issues, 2013, p. 102-114.
Mert Bilgin, “Geopolitics of European Natural Gas Demand: Supplies from Russia,
Caspian and the Middle East”, Energy Policy, 37, 2009, p. 4482–4492.
Mert Bilgin, “Fosil, Yenilenebilir ve Nükleer Yakıtların Neopolitik Anlamı Türkiye’nin Durumu ve Gelecek Alternatifleri”, Uluslararası İlişkiler, Cilt 5, Sayı 20,
2009, p. 57-88.
Mert
Bilgin, “What Difference Does it Make to Become an Energy Transit
Corridor, Hub or Center?”, UNISCI Discussion Paper, No23, 2010, p. 113–128.
Mert Bilgin, “Energy and Turkey’s Foreign Policy: State Strategy, Regional
Cooperation and Private Sector Involment”, Turkish Policy Quarterly, Volume 9, No
2, 2011, p. 81-92.
Mert Bilgin, “Yeni Asya’nın Enerji Paradigmasında Orta Asya ve Kafkaslar: Rusya,
AB, ABD, Çin, İran ve Türkiye arasındaki açmazlar ve stratejik açılımlar”, Stratejik
Araştırmalar Dergisi, 2011,
www.stratejikongoru.org/pdf/yeniasyaninenerjiparadigmasi.pdf/ , (28.04.2013).
Michael T. Klare, Rising powers, shrinking planet: the new geopolitics of energy,
New York, Metropolitan Books, 2008, p. 15.
Mustafa Aydın, “Kafkasya ve Orta Asya İle İlişkiler”, Baskın Oran (ed.), Türk Dış
Politikası Kurtuluş Savaşı’ndan Bugüne Olgular, Belgeler, Yorumlar, C.II, İstanbul,
İletişim Yayınları, 2005.
Mustafa Aydın, Türkiye’nin Avrasya Macerası, Ankara, Nobel Yayıncılık, 2007.
Mustafa Balat, “Security of Energy Supply in Turkey: Challenges and Solutions”,
Energy Conversion and Management, 51, 2010, p. 1998-2011.
Necdet Pamir, “Enerji Arz Güvenliği ve Türkiye”, ASAM Stratejik Analiz, 2007, p.
14-24.
Necdet Özalp, “Büyük Oyunda Hazar Enerji Kaynaklarının Önemi ve Konumu”,
Panorama Dergisi, Sayı 1, Şubat 2004, p. 5-17.
Nejat Doğan ve diğerleri, Türkiye'nin Jeoekonomisi ve Jeopolitikası: Türkiye
Geleceğin Neresinde, Ankara, Nobel Yayın Dağıtım, 2007.
610
Outlook
for
Energy:
A
View
to
2030,
Exxon
Mobile,
2010,
http://www.exxonmobil.com/Corporate/Files/news_pub_eo_2009.pdf, (Accessed 18
April 2013).
Özgür Bora Özkul, “21. Yüzyılda Enerji Güvenliği”, Stratejik Öngörü Stratejik
Araştırmalar Dergisi, Sayı: 15-16, p. 49-62.
Paul Stevens, Transit troubles: Pipelines as a source of conflict, Catham House
Report, London, The Royal Institute of International Affairs Catham House, 2009.
Pinar Bilgin ve Ali Bilgiç, “Turkey’s new foreing policy toward Eurasia”, Eurasian
Geography and Economics, Volume 52, No 2, 2011, s. 173-195.
Sander Hansen, “Pipeline Politics: The Struggle For Control of Eurasian Energy
Resources”, April 2003,
www.clingendael.nl/publications/2003/20030400_ciep_paper_hansen.pdf/ (Accessed
02 April 2013).
Stuart Harris, “Global and Regional Orders and the Changing Geopolitics of Energy”,
Australian Journal of International Affairs, Volume 64, No 2, 2010, s. 166-185.
The New Energy Security Paradigm, World Economic Forum, Spring 2006,
www.webforum.org/pdf/Energy.pdf/, (Accessed 02 March 2013).
Tuncay Babali, “Turkey at the Energy Crossroads”, Middle East Quarterly, 16 (2),
Spring 2009, p. 25-33.
W. J. Nuttall and D. L. Manz, “A New Energy Security Paradigm For The TwentyFirst Century”, Technological Forecasting & Social Change, Volume 75, No 8, 2008,
p. 1247-1259.
W. Raymond Duncan et al., World Politics in the 21st Century, New York, Pearson
Longman, 2006.
611
Download

602 A BRIDGE BETWEEN EAST AND WEST