BROJ 1
IZDAVAČ:
„OIKOS INSTITUT“ D.O.O. Bijeljina
ZA IZDAVAČA, DIREKTOR
Doc. dr Zoran Mastilo
GLAVNI I ODGOVORNI UREDNIK
Prof. dr Petar Đukić, Univerzitet u Beogradu
UREDNIK
Suzana Simić, master ekonomista, finansije,
bankarstvo i osiguranje
REDAKCIJA:
A. Naučna: Dragoljub dr Stojanov, Đuro dr Medić,
Božidar dr Stavrić emeritus, Gojko dr Rikalović,
Nenad dr Vunjak, Petar dr Đukić, Gordana dr
Kokeza, Šefkija dr Berberović emeritus, Danica
dr Berberović, Mira dr Šunjić emeritus, Kadrija
dr Hodžić, Branko dr Krsmanović, Pajo dr Panić,
Hamid dr Alibašić, Ljubomir dr Trifunović, Nenad dr
Suzić, Siniša dr Ostojić, Aleksandar dr Stojanović,
Marko dr Šarčević, Goran dr Popović, Lorena dr
Škuflić, Miladin dr Jovičić.
B. Stručna: Vladan dr Nastić, Milan mr Radović,
Zijad mr Krnjić, Dražen mr Cvijanović, Mladen mr
Fulurija, Milorad mr Živković Jelena mr Vitomir,
Biljana mr Stanivuk
TEHNIČKI UREDNIK
Cvijetin Maletić, dipl. ek.
GRAFIČKI UREDNIK I DIZAJN
Marko Mastilo
PREVOD NA ENGLESKI JEZIK
Nemanja Jovanović, prevod i lektorisanje za
engleski jezik od 5-22; 45-78 strane
LEKTOR ZA SRPSKI JEZIK
Prof. dr Cvijetin Ristanović
ADRESA
„OIKOS INSTITUT“ D.O.O.,
Vuka Karadžića do broja 9,
76300, Bijeljina,
Republika Srpska,
Bosna i Hercegovina.
KONTAKT
e-mail: [email protected]
Sajt: http://www.oikosinstitut.org/economics.html
Žiro račun: 55500000004916269
Nova Banka, filijala Bijeljina
JIB: 4403572460004
Časopis izlazi polugodišnje
PRETPLATA PO IZDANJU
Za pravna lica 150 KM (12 kom.)
Za fizička lica 10KM (1 kom.)
ŠTAMPA
Grafika GOLE
Tiraž: 300 primjeraka
KATALOGIZACIJA
Štampano izdanje: ISSN 2303-5005
Online izdanje: ISSN 2303-5013
SADRŽAJ - CONTENT
UVODNIK - EDITORIAL
1-4
Prof. dr Petar Đukić
DA LI JE VRIJEME ZA NOVU EKONOMSKU PERIODIKU?
HAS THE TIME COME FOR A NEW ECONOMIC JOURNAL?
EKONOMIJA PREDUZETNIŠTVA - ENTERPRISES ECONOMY
5 - 22
Prof. dr Marko Šarčević
MEĐUZAVISNOST STEPENA KORIŠTENJA KAPACITETA I OSTVARENE DOBITI U PREDUZEĆU
INTERDEPENDENCY BETWEEN UTILISATION LEVEL OF PRODUCTION CAPACITIES AND ACTUAL PROFIT OF A COMPANY
23 - 34
Ognjen Zupur, dipl. ek.
ISTRAZIVAČKO-RAZVOJNA FUNKCIJA KAO OKOSNICA TEHNOLOŠKIH INOVACIJA
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FUNCTIONS AS THE BACKBONE TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS
TEORIJSKA EKONOMIJA - THEORETICAL ECONOMICS
35 - 44
Prof. dr Miladin Jovičić; Dejan Gračanin, dipl. ek.
GRANICE FENOMENA GLOBALIZACIJE
THE LIMITS OF THE PHENOMENON OF GLOBALIZATION
POSLOVNE FINANSIJE I BANKARSTVO - BUSINESS FINANCE AND BANKING
45 - 62
Doc. dr Vitomir Starčević
RIZICI OD BITNOG UTICAJA NA KREDITNI BONITET PREDUZEĆA
RISKS OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CREDIT WORTHINESS OF A COMPANY
63 - 78
Doc. dr Slobodan Subotić
MJERENJE RIZIKA KREDITNOG PORTFOLIJA
MEASUREMENT OF LOAN PORTFOLIO RISK
79 - 92
Boriša Stevanović, dipl. ek.
METODE MJERENJA KAMATNOG RIZIKA U BANKAMA
METHODS OF MEASURING INTEREST RATE RISK IN BANKS
MEĐUNARODNA EKONOMIJA - INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
93 - 108
Dr Vladan Nastić
“MADE IN” ILI “MADE BY” U GLOBALNOJ EKONOMIJI - ŠTA JE RJEŠENJE ZA NACIONALNU EKONOMIJU I IZVOZNO BRENDIRANJE?
“MADE IN” OR “MADE BY” IN GLOBAL ECONOMY - WHAT IS SOLUTION FOR NATIONAL ECONOMY AND EXPORT BRANDING?
FISKALNA EKONOMIJA - FISCAL ECONOMY
Mr Biljana Stanivuk
109 - 116 UTICAJ FISKALNE POLITIKE NA EKONOMSKE TOKOVE U BOSNI I HERCEGOVINI
FISCAL POLICY EFFECTS ON ECONOMIC TRENDS IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
DIGITALNA EKONOMIJA - DIGITAL ECONOMY
Cvijetin Maletić, dipl. ek.
117 - 139 POSLOVNA INTELIGENCIJA
BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE
UVODNIK - EDITORIAL
DA LI JE VRIJEME ZA NOVU EKONOMSKU PERIODIKU?
HAS THE TIME COME FOR A NEW ECONOMIC JOURNAL?
Prof. dr Petar Đukić*
*Univerzitet u Beogradu, Tehnološko-Metalurški fakultet Beograd
University of Belgrade, Faculty of Technology and Metallurgy
Ako bismo se upravljali prema najaktuelnijim privredno-političkim vijestima i činjenicama koje proističu iz stanja
svjetske ekonomije, ne bismo lako mogli
da sagledamo raison d’etre pokretanja bilo
kakvog novog časopisa za teoriju i praksu
ekonomije. Izgleda kao da je izgubilo smisao bilo kakvo teoretisanje u situaciji kada
se permanentno snižavaju prognozirane
stope rasta privrede, kako za tekuću, tako
i izgledi za sledeću godinu. Za svijet u cjelini, po svoj prilici (MMF je u tom pogledu
veoma odrešit) u 2013. godini stopa rasta
globalnog BDP ne može dostići ni prosječnu vrijednost zabilježenu u proteklom
tridesetogodišnjem periodu od oko 3%, a
prognozirana stopa za 2014. od 3,6%, sudeći po sadašnjim tendencijama, čini se i
previše optimističnom. Jer, usporavanja rasta u Rusiji, Kini, Indiji, Meksiku, prelivanje psiholoških i drugih posljedica (svijetu
do sada nepojmljive) budžetske blokade u
SAD, sve dublja depresivnost EU zone kojoj ove godine slijedi pad BDP od -0,4%,
ne daju baš mnogo izgleda za optimizam ili
osnova za bilo kakvu veliku retoriku.
If we governed ourselves on the basis of
the most current economic and political news and
facts derived from the status of the world economy, we could not easily perceive raison d’etre for
initiating any new journal of economics theory
and practice. It appears that any theorizing has
lost its sense in the situation where the forecasted economic growth rates are being permanently
lowered for both the current and the next year.
For the world as a whole, it is very likely that (the
IMF has been very clear in that respect) in 2013,
the growth rate of global GDP cannot even reach
the average value of about 3%, recorded in the
previous 30-year period of about. With regards
to that the forecasted rate of 3.6% for 2014, according to current trends, appears to be too optimistic. The main reasons being the growth rate
decelerations in Russia, China, India and Mexico,
overspill of psychological and other consequences of the budget stalemate in the U.S. (which has
been inconceivable to the rest of the world until
now), increasingly deeper depression of the EU
zone, which is about to encounter GDP decline
of -0.4 % this year. Such information does not
provide any reason for optimism, nor the basis
for any significant rhetoric.
U vremenu kada nastaje ovaj tekst
At the time of writing this text (mid
(sredina novembra 2013.) iz Libije pristiže November 2013), news from Libya report that
vijest da je samo tokom proteklog dana u during the previous day of the civil conflict in
građanskim sukobima u Tripoliju izgubilo Tripoli, nearly 40 people were killed, while
život blizu 40 osoba, dok je preko trista ra- more than three hundred were injured, while
njeno, a samo dva-tri dana ranije su desetine only two or three days earlier, tens of thouhiljada Filipinaca nastradali u novoj velikoj sands of Filipinos had been killed in the latcunami-katastrofi. Pomoć iz svijeta veoma est tsunami disaster. Aid from the rest of the
je oskudna, između ostalog jer su katastro- World is scarce, among other things, because
fe velikih razmjera sve češće, a gotovo da of large-scale disasters are becoming more
nema zemlje u svijetu koja se ne bavi ur- frequent, with almost no country in the world
gentnim pitanjima i problemima sopstvene addressing to the pressing issues and problems
egzistencije.
regarding its own existence.
1
P. Đukić: DA LI JE VRIJEME ZA NOVU EKONOMSKU PERIODIKU?
Za to vrijeme u Republici Srpskoj,
In the meantime, in the Republic of Srpska,
kao i u cijeloj BIH uostalom, svakodnevno as well as throughout the entire Bosnia and Herzerastu potrebe za besplatnim obrocima, za govina, the necessity for free meals, for which barely
čije finansiranje preostaje jedva 55% neop- 55% of the necessary funds remain, is growing on a
hodnih sredstava. Po riječima generalnog daily basis. In the words of the Secretary General of
sekretara Crvenog krsta RS, nema novca the Red Cross of the Republic of Srpska, there are inkako bi obrok bio obezbijeđen svima koji sufficient funds to provide meals to all the people who
hranu sebi ne mogu da priušte, tako da u cannot afford to buy the food themselves. Therefore,
toku godine kuhinja može normalno da radi soup-kitchens can normally operate for about eight
oko osam mjeseci, a preostala četiri mje- months per year, with the remaining four months
seca rada “svodi se na snalaženje”. Što se basically coming down to “every man for himself”.
donatora tiče, oni traže nova žarišta, jer je As for the donors, they are looking for new hot spots,
BiH dosad “trebalo da stane na svoje noge”. since Bosnia and Herzegovina “should have been
Prioriteti su, u proteklom periodu bila druga standing on its own feet by now.” The priorities in
područja, poput Kosova i Sirije, a sada su the past were other areas, such as Kosovo and Syria,
to Filipini.
with the Philippines being the priority area today.
U regionu Jugoistočne Evrope
kome pripadamo, takođe ništa optimistično. Čak i u Hrvatskoj (najnovijem članu
EU) za svega deset dana u oktobru, broj
nezaposlenih porastao je čak za više od
deset hiljada osoba, sa izgledima da se
ukupni broj nezaposlenih od oko 350 hiljada, tokom sledeće godine uveća na pola
miliona lica. Javni dug zemalja Jugoistočne Evrope za sada je najveći u Srbiji (oko
60% BDP), ali je i onaj u Hrvatskoj sve
bliži tom nivou, dok je nivo javnog duga
BIH tokom protekle godine procjenjen na
34% BDP, ali sa tendencijom rasta. Najniži nivo javnog duga u regionu ima Makedonija, ali to ni izdaleka ne znači da ima
najbolje ekonomske performanse. Dakle,
ni tranzicija u zemljama našeg regiona
nije donijela kvalitetne strukturne promjene i održivi rast ekonomije, kako se
očekivalo.
The forecast for the region of Southeast
Europe, to which our country belongs, is not optimistic either. Even in Croatia (the newest member of the EU) in just ten days in October, the
number of unemployed people has risen by more
than ten thousand, with the total number of unemployed people expected to rise from 350 thousand to half a million people over the next year.
The public debt of the countries of South East
Europe is currently the highest in Serbia (about
60% of GDP), with the one in Croatia getting
closer to that level, while the level of Bosnia and
Herzegovina’s public debt was estimated to be
34% of GDP in the past year, with the increasing
trend. Former Yugoslav Republic of Macedonia
has the lowest level of public debt in the region,
but it is still far from having the best economic
performance. Therefore, the transition process in
the countries of our region did not bring quality structural change and sustainable economic
growth, as expected.
Tak samo kao lažna utjeha mogao bi
As a false consolation, the data stating
da posluži podatak da je nivo javnog duga u that the public debt level in the Euro Zone in
Euro zoni već u 2013. dostigao 92,2% BDP, 2013 reached 92.2% of GDP, while in Greece,
dok je u Grčkoj, Španiji, Portugalu, Belgi- Spain, Portugal and Belgium it is even highji čak preko 130%. Evropska unija još nije er than 130% . The European Union has not
prevazišla ni svoje konstitucionalne proble- yet overcome its constitutional or initial probme, tzv dječije ili one “tinejdžerske” bole- lems such as the organization during the crisis,
sti kao što su način organizacije u kriznim management of common resources, particuuslovima, upravljanje zajedničkim posebno larly financial ones; application of sustainable
finansijskim resursima, primjena održive fi- fiscal policy and financial discipline. On the
skalne politike i finansijske discipline. Sa other hand, the cases of Estonia, whose public
2
P. Đukić: HAS THE TIME COME FOR A NEW ECONOMIC JOURNAL?
druge strane, primjeri Estonije čiji javni debt has not risen over 10% of GDP, and Gerdug još nije prešao preko 10% BDP, kao i many, which records almost constant economNjemačke, koja gotovo konstantno bilježi ic growth and much lower unemployment rate
ekonomski rast i daleko nižu nezaposlenost than the rest of the EU, demonstrate that the
od ostatka EU, pokazuje da se u krizi (i kri- management during the crisis (and of the crizom) može upravljati manje ili više uspješ- sis) can be managed more or less successfully.
no. Ako se uporede ova dva zasebna slučaja If these two separate cases are compared to
sa stanjem čitave EU, ili Evrope u cjelini, the situation in the entire EU, or to Europe as
ili pak za svijet izuzetna i po sebi lakša i a whole, or to the World, or an exquisite and
perspektivnija ekonomska situacija zema- by itself less complicated and more promising
lja BRIKS-a (Brazil, Rusija, Indija, Kina, economic situation of the BRICS countries
Južna Afrika) u odnosu na ostatak svijeta, (Brazil, Russia, India, China, South Africa) is
nema dvojbe da se ukazuje sasvim izvjesna compared to the rest of the World, there is no
potreba za novom i drugačijom, napredni- doubt that there is a need not only for a new
jom i savremenijom ekonomskom teorijom, and different, more advanced and more modpa i čitavom filozofijom razvoja u XXI vi- ern economic theory, but for the whole develjeku.
opment philosophy in the XXI century.
Redakcija časopisa Oikos Economics,
Editorial Board of Oikos Economics
čiji je prvi broj pred vama nema pretenzije journal, whose first issue you are holding right
da vodi ka nekoj novoj teorijsko-metodo- now, does not intend to lead towards a new
loškoj revoluciji (kao što je svojevremeno theoretical and methodological revolution (as
bila ona “kejzijanska”) ili potpuno druga- “Keynesian” revolution once was), or a comčijoj razvojnoj filozofiji, ali ima namjeru da pletely different development philosophy, but
omogući, naročito mlađim ekonomskim pa is intended to particularly enable young ecoi drugim stručnjacima za društvenu struktu- nomic and other social structure and developru i razvoj, kako praktičarima tako i teoreti- ment experts, both practitioners and theorists,
čarima, da postojeće i nove teme i dileme to perceive, in a multidimensional manner,
privredne politike i prakse osvijetle sa svog current and new themes and dilemmas of ecostanovišta i da na višedimenzionalan način nomic policy and practice from their own point
istražuju mnoge do sada neistražene pojave, of view, and to explore many phenomena, proprocese i činjenice.
cesses and facts, unexplored to this day,
Naime, mnogo štošta, od onoga što
In fact, many occurrences, from what
se činilo kao veoma poznato i izvjesno, sada seemed like a very familiar and obvious, look
u svjetlu posljedica najnovije krize izgleda very different today, in the light of the results
prilično drugačije. Ako stvari ostanu samo of the latest crisis. If things remain on the pracna praktičnoj ravni, a mjere ekonomske po- tical level, with the measures of economic pollitike svedene na preporuke iz dosadašnje icy reduced to recommendations from previous
prakse, neće ispasti na dobro. Stari Grci su practice, the outcome will not be favourable. The
kroz usta svojih velikih mudraca- filozofa ja- ancient Greeks sent a clear message through the
sno poručili: panta rei a onda pojednostavili mouths of their great sages - philosophers: panprimjerom u kome se nikada ne može dva ta rei, accompanied by a simplified example, in
puta stati u istu rijeku. Tako je i sa najno- which you could never step twice into the same
vijom krizom koja za jedan dio industrijski river. The same applies to the latest crisis, lasting
razvijenog svijeta traje već sedam godina, for seven years in the industrial part of the develdakle duže nego velika depresija 1929-1934. oped world, which is longer than the Great DePri tome su istrošeni gotovo cjelokupni ar- pression of 1929-1934. In the process, the entire
senali podsticajnih interventno-finansijskih arsenals of financial incentive-corrective measmjera. Čak i u Kini, koja je do sada bila na ures have been nearly depleted. According to
3
P. Đukić: DA LI JE VRIJEME ZA NOVU EKONOMSKU PERIODIKU?
čelu uzdanica globalnog rasta, prema nalazima Svjetske banke, “stimulativni program
je odigrao svoje”, a kreditna ekspanzija se
privodi kraju, tako da kreatori finansijske
politike u ovoj zemlji sve više moraju da
vode računa o obuzdavanju ubrzanog rasta
kredita, uz pojačanu superviziju.
the World Bank, even in China, which has been
at the forefront of global growth, the “stimulus
program played its part” with the credit expansion nearing its completion, so that the creators
of financial policy in this country are forced to
increasingly pay attention to restraining the rapid
loan growth, with intensified supervision.
Ako bi se današnja teorija i praksa odrIf the present theory and practice of
živog rasta i razvoja privrede upodobila onoj sustainable economic growth and developkoja je poslužila kao osnova za prevladavanje ment would suit to the one used as a basis for
čuvene, stagflacije 70-tih godina XX vijeka, overcoming the famous stagflation in the 70’s,
razumje se da bi učinci bili još skromniji. Da- it is clear that the effects would be even weaker.
našnji povratak “reganomici” i “tačerizmu”, Today’s return to “Reganomics” and “Thatchtako efikasnim modelima ekonomske politike erism” , as effective models of economic polod prije svega tri decenije, po svoj prilici ne icy from three decades ago, is presumably out
dolazi u obzir, iako su tržišna privreda, glo- of the question, even though the market econbalna sloboda trgovine, pa i vrijednosti opšte omy, the global free trade, and the values of
ekonomske liberalizacije neupitne. Svaka global economic liberalization are unquestionod mjera ekonomske politike danas zahtjeva able. Each of the economic policy measures
preispitivanje u skladu sa novim sadržajima now requires reconsideration in accordance
i faktorima privrednog razvoja, pa i novim with the new features and factors of economic
profilom najnovije krize, kojoj, kao da se ne development, as well as with the new profile of
nazire skori kraj.
the latest crisis, whose end is nowhere in sight.
Nije li to dovoljan razlog da se poIs not that the reason sufficient to start
krene jedan novi časopis kakav je Oikos a new magazine such as the Oikos Economics,
Economics, koji će nadamo se, uz vašu po- which will hopefully, with your assistance, primoć, prije svega kroz kritičku analizu pro- marily through critical analysis of its content
čitanog i odgovarajuće korišćenje ponuđe- and through proper use of the offered findings,
nih nalaza, kao i vaš kreativni doprinos u as well as through your creative contribution via
radovima koji ćete nam slati na recenzije i the papers that you will have submitted to us for
publikovanje, postati još u većoj mjeri re- review and publishing, become increasingly rellevantan za ekonomsko-političku teoriju i evant in the socio-political theory and practice.
praksu. Uostalom, davno je rečeno: “Nema After all, it was said long ago: “There is nothing
bolje prakse od dobre teorije”. U tom smi- so practical as a good theory.” In that respect,
slu treba sagledavati i ovaj pokušaj da se this effort should be considered an attempt to
lepeza postojeće naučno-stručne periodike expand the portfolio of existing scientific and
dopuni jednim novim časopisom, koji je technical periodicals by a new magazine, which
pred vama.
is right in front of you.
4
U Beogradu Belgrade
17. novembra 2013.
17 November 2013.
EKONOMIJA PREDUZETNIŠTVA - ENTERPRISES ECONOMY
MEĐUZAVISNOST STEPENA KORIŠTENJA KAPACITETA I OSTVARENE
DOBITI U PREDUZEĆU
INTERDEPENDENCY BETWEEN UTILISATION LEVEL OF PRODUCTION CAPACITIES
AND ACTUAL PROFIT OF A COMPANY
Prof. dr Marko Šarčević*
*Univerzitet u Istočnom Sarajevu, Ekonomski fakultet Istočno Sarajevo-Pale
University of East Sarajevo, Faculty of Economics East Sarajevo-Pale
Izvorni naučni članak
doi 10.7251/OIK1301001S, UDK 65.012123:336.748.12
Original scientific paper
REZIME
SUMMARY
Visok stepen međuzavisnosti stepena
korištenja kapaciteta i dobiti preduzeća leži
u činjenici postojanja fiksnih troškova uslovljenih instalisanjem kapaciteta i njihovog ponašanja kako u apsolutnom iznosu, tako i po
jedinici proizvoda. Ukoliko se kapacitet koristi u projektovanom obimu a, istovremeno,
tržište prihvati ostvarenu proizvodnju, koja je
prilagođena platežnoj moći potrošača, onda
će preduzeće ostvariti pozitivan finansijski
rezultat, odnosno dobit. U protivnom, ako se
kapacitet ne koristi dovoljno, onda će fiksni
troškovi da opterete cijenu koštanja, te preduzeće neće moći da ponudi prodajnu cijenu
koja će biti konkurentna, što će voditi daljem
smanjenju korišćenja kapaciteta, i preduzeće
u sigurnu propast.
High level of interdependency between
the utilization level of production capacities
and the actual profit of a company lies in the
existence of fixed costs conditioned by the
production capacities and their behaviour both
in absolute amount and per unit of a product. If
the capacity is utilised in the projected volume
and if the market, at the same time, accepts the
production achieved, made affordable to the
consumers, then the company will accomplish a
positive financial result and income. Otherwise,
if the capacity is not utilised sufficiently, the
fixed cost shall encumber the price, resulting in
the company’s inability to offer a competitive
selling price, which will lead to further
reductions in utilization of capacities, thus
leading the company into disaster.
Ključne riječi: troškovi, fiksni troškovi,
kapacitet, stepen korištenja kapaciteta, dobit.
cijena koštanja, prodajna cijena.
Keywords: costs, fixed costs, capacities,
utilization level of capacities, profit, cost
price, selling price.
UVOD
INTRODUCTION
Troškovi su utrošene vrijednosti u
reprodukciji. Pod troškovima podrazumijevamo trošenje dobara (sredstava) i usluga u
proizvodnom procesu, pri čemu su ta dobra
i usluge izražene vrijednosno. Veličina troškova zavisi od obima utrošaka i veličine cijene tog elementa. Troškovi predstavljaju centralni problem u politici preduzeća. Njihova
veličina uslovljava uspjeh preduzeća, tako da
troškovi predstavljaju kontrolni instrument
The costs are the funds spent in the process
of reproduction. The costs imply consumption
of commodities (assets) and services in the
production process, with such commodities and
services being specified in value. Cost depends
on the volume of consumption and the price of
such element. Costs represent the central problem
in the policy of a company. Success of a company
is dependent on their amount in such manner
that the costs represent a control instrument of
5
M. Šarčević: MEĐUZAVISNOST STEPENA KORIŠTENJA KAPACITETA I OSTVARENE DOBITI...
efikasnosti poslovanja. Troškovi elemenata
proizvodnje kao oblik ulaganja vrijednosti
u proces reprodukcije u ekonomskoj teoriji
i praksi klasifikuju se po nekoliko osnovnih
kriterijuma, zavisno od ciljeva posmatranja
te pojave. Podjela troškova na bazi kriterijuma njihove zavisnosti od veličine kapaciteta
i njihovog korišćenja razlikuje dvije osnovne
skupine ovog oblika ulaganja u proces reprodukcije: (1) fiksne i (2) varijabilne troškove.
business operation efficiency. Costs of elements
of production as a form of investment of value
in the reproduction process are classified on the
basis of several basic criteria in economic theory
and practice, depending on the observation
objectives of such occurrence. Division of costs
based on the criteria of their dependence on the
capacity and their use distinguishes two main
groups of this investment type in the process of
reproduction: (1) fixed and (2) variable costs
Pri promjeni stepena korišćenja kapaciteta, troškovi elemenata proizvodnje različito se ponašaju.
Changes in the utilisation level of
production capacities, costs of production
elements behave differently.
Pojave koje se javljaju u ponašanju
troškova vezano za promjenu stepena korištenja kapaciteta mogu se definisati kao:
(1) progresija troškova, (2) degresija troškova
i (3) remanentnost troškova.
Occurrences in the behaviour of costs
related to the change in the utilisation level
of production capacities can be defined as:
(1) cost progression, (2) cost degression,
(3) cost remanence
U cilju lakšeg razumijevanja ovako izvršene podjele troškova, neophodno
je ukazati na značaj i ulogu uspostavljanja
i korišćenja proizvodnog kapaciteta kao
i izraza koncentracije kapitala u pripremi
proizvodnje.
In order to facilitate the understanding
of such division of costs, it is necessary to
point out the importance of establishing and
utilisation of the production capacities as well
as the expression of concentration of capital
in preparation for the production.
POJAM KAPACITETA
U PREDUZEĆU
PRODUCTION CAPACITIES
OF A COMPANY
Definisanje i klasifikacija proizvodnih
kapaciteta u preduzeću.
Definition and classification of production capacities of a company.
Kapacitet preduzeća predstavlja njegovu proizvodnu sposobnost tokom određenog perioda, utvrđenu na osnovu organizacije i uslova proizvodnje koji obezbjeđuju
maksimalno korišćenje proizvodne opreme.
Koncentrisanje ekonomskih vrijednosti u
sredstvima za rad predstavlja određeni vid
pripreme proizvodnje, koja omogućava efikasnije privređivanje. U tom smislu, privredni
subjekti koji se odlikuju višim stepenom tehničke opremljenosti, proizvodno su sposobniji, odnosno, imaju veći proizvodni potencijal.
A company’s production capacity represents its productivity over a certain period,
determined on the basis of the organization
and production conditions that ensure maximum utilization of production equipment.
Concentration of economic values in the
equipment represents a certain form of production preparation, which allows for more
efficient operation. In that sense, companies
possess a higher level of technical equipment,
are more capable for production, i.e., their
production potential is greater.
Uspostavljanje proizvodnog kapaciteta podrazumjeva određena ulaganja kapitala u
pripremu proizvodnje. Međutim, takva prethodna ulaganja ekonomski su opravdana je-
Establishing a production capacity includes certain equity investments in
production preparation. However, such
pre-investments are economically justified
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M. Šarčević: INTERDEPENDENCY BETWEEN UTILISATION LEVEL OF PRODUCTION CAPACITIES...
dino ako se reprodukuju, odnosno upotrijebe
za dobijanje materijalnih dobara, čijom realizacijom se tako uložene vrijednosti vrate, uz
njihovo ekonomsko oplođavanje. Otuda i potreba da se uspostavljeni proizvodni kapacitet
što je moguće potpunije koristi. U protivnom,
akumulirane vrijednosti u sredstvima za rad
neracionalno se troše zbog djelovanja zuba
vremena i njihovog moralnog rabaćenja, odnosno zastarijevanja.
only if they are reproduced, i.e. used for
obtaining material commodities, whose
realisation ensures the return of such investments, alongside with their economic
progression. Hence is the need to utilise
the established production capacity to the
highest extent possible. Otherwise, the accumulated value in the equipment is irrationally spent due to time progression and
their wear & tear.
Ukoliko se proizvodni kapacitet uopšte ne koristi, vrijednosti uložene u njega neće
se reprodukovati, jer nema proizvoda koji bi
omogućili prenošenje takvog ulaganja na potrošače. Stoga će troškovi uslovljeni izgradnjom takvog kapaciteta predstavljati gubitak
za preduzeće u kome je takav investicioni
promašaj nastao.
If the production capacity remains unused, the values invested in it will not reproduce, due to the lack of products that would
allow the transfer of such investment assets
onto customers. Therefore, the costs caused
by installing such capacities would represent
a loss for the company in which such investment failure occurred.
Ekonomski kapacitet podrazumjeva
odnos između učinaka koji dati organizacioni
sistem proizvodi i ulaganja uslovljenih uspostavljanjem toga sistema. Ovaj koncept bazira
se na finansijskim efektima koji se ostvaruju
korišćenjem instalisanog kapaciteta.
Economic capacity denotes the relationship between the effects generated by the
organizational system and investment caused
by the establishment of such system. This concept is based on the financial effects achieved
by utilisation of the installed capacity.
Razlikujemo tri vrste kapaciteta:
(1) minimalni, (2) optimalni, (3) maksimalni.
There are three types of capacity:
(1) minimum, (2) optimum, (3) maximum.
Minimalnim kapacitetom podrazumijeva se stepen iskorišćenosti tehničkog kapaciteta na kome je finansijski dobitak jednak nuli,
odnosno na kojem se vrijednost proizvodnje
izjednačava sa cijenom koštanja (C=T).
Minimum capacity denotes the utilisation level of technical capacity at which
the financial gain is zero, or where the production value of is equal to the cost price
(C=T).
Maksimalni kapacitet podrazumijeva
potpunu iskorišćenost tehničkog kapaciteta.
To je gornja tačka korišćenja tehničkog kapaciteta, na kojoj se ponovo cijena koštanja
izjednačava sa cijenom proizvodnje.
Maximum capacity implies full utilization of technical capacities. It is the top
most point of the technical capacities utilisation, where the cost price is equalised to the
production price.
Optimalni kapacitet označava stepen
korišćenja proizvodnog potencijala preduzeća pri kome su troškovi po jedinici proizvoda najniži. Optimalni kapacitet je manji od
maksimalnog kapaciteta. Optimalni kapacitet
predstavlja stepen korištenja maksimalnog
kapaciteta. On se najčešće pojavljuje u vidu
neke zone, zone optimalnosti koja može da se
prostire od 75-90% korišćenja maksimalnog
kapaciteta.
Optimum capacity denotes the level of
utilisation of production potential of a company while keeping the cost per unit of production at the lowest level. Optimum capacity is
lower than the maximum capacity. Optimum
capacity represents the level of utilization of
maximum capacity. It mainly occurs in the
form of a zone; the zone of optimality that
can range from 75-90% of maximum capacity utilisation.
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M. Šarčević: MEĐUZAVISNOST STEPENA KORIŠTENJA KAPACITETA I OSTVARENE DOBITI...
MJERENJE KAPACITETA U
PREDUZEĆU
MEASURING THE CAPACITY OF A
COMPANY
Kapacitet se može izražavati naturalnim i vrijednosnim pokazateljima.
Capacity can be expressed by physical
and financial indicators.
Naturalni pokazatelji
Physical indicators
Među naturalne pokazatelje spadaju: (1) fond mašinskih časova rada, (2) broj
potrebnih radnika za određeni vremenski
period, (3) količina prerađenih sirovina i
materijala, (4) instalisana snaga elektromotora i drugih potrošača električne energije,
(5) broj određenih korisnih aktivnosti proizvodne opreme.
Physical indicators include the following: (1) number of hours used for operation of
the machines, (2) number of required workers
for a specific period of time, (3) amount of
processed raw materials and supplies, (4) installed capacity of electric motors and other
consumers of power, (5) number of specific
useful activities of production equipment.
Naturalni pokazatelji su više Kvalitativnog karaktera i izražavaju se u materijalnom obliku, dok su vrijednosni pokazatelji
kvantitativnog karaktera i izražavaju se u jedinicama mjere.
The type of physical indicators is
mainly qualitative and can be expressed in
tangible form, while the type of financial indicators is mainly quantitative nature and can
be expressed in units of measure.
Vrijednosni pokazatelji
Financial indicators
Ako rezultat reprodukcije pomnožimo
sa pijenom (prodajnom ili nekom drugom)
dobijamo rezultat reprodukcije u obliku vrijednosti. Na Ovaj način dobija se i ukupna
vrijednost proizvodnje preduzeća. Ona se
dobija množenjem količine svih proizvedenih učinaka sa njihovom prodajnom cijenom.
Vrijednost ostvarene proizvodnje je u stvari
mjera iskorišćenosti dijela proizvodnog kapaciteta preduzeća u određenom periodu.
If we multiply the reproduction result
with the price, (either sales or other) the result is reproduction of the form of value. This
method provides the total value of a company’s production. It is obtained by multiplying
the amount of all the produced effects with
their selling price. The value of actual production is in fact a measure of utilization of a section of the company’s production capacities
within a certain period.
Mjerenje kapaciteta može se izražavati: (1) jedinicama učinka - jedinicama proizvoda, (2) jedinicama rada, (3) istrošenim
elementima proizvodnje, itd.
Measuring the capacities can be expressed by: (1) Performance units – product
units, (2) Work (labour) Units, (3) Consumed
production elements, etc.
Jedinice mjere su fizičke jedinice, npr.
tone, komadi, litri, parovi, itd.
Units of measurement are physical
units, e.g ., tons, pieces, litres, pairs, etc..
Najčešće se kao jedinice rada upotrebljavaju mašinski časovi rada a, u uslužnim djelatnostima to su norma časovi rada
radnika.
Units most commonly used as work
(labour) units are the numbers of machine operation hours and, with regards to services norm working hours of employees.
Mjerenje kapaciteta utrošenim elementima proizvodnje primjenjuje se najčešće
Measuring the capacity on the basis
of consumed production elements is common-
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M. Šarčević: INTERDEPENDENCY BETWEEN UTILISATION LEVEL OF PRODUCTION CAPACITIES...
tamo gdje postoji mogućnost proizvodnje
istih proizvoda - količinama sirovina koje se
mogu preraditi.
ly used in the situations where it is possible to
produce the same products – by the quantities
of raw materials that can be processed.
U nekim slučajevima kapacitet se izražava prostorom koji se koristi za proizvodnju
ili uskim grlima proizvodnje itd.
In some cases, the capacity is expressed by the space used for production or
by production bottlenecks, etc..
STEPEN ISKORIŠTENOSTI
KAPACITETA
UTILISATION LEVEL OF PRODUCTION
CAPACITIES
Stepen iskorištenosti kapaciteta se
može izražavati na više načina. Koji će se
od mogućih načina upotrijebiti zavisi od kategorije kapaciteta koji se uzima u konkretnom slučaju. Imamo sljedeće mogućnosti:
odnos stvarno iskorištenog kapaciteta prema
maksimalnom kapacitetu, zatim iskorišteni kapacitet prema raspoloživom kapacitetu,
optimalnom kapacitetu ili prema planiranom
kapacitetu.
Utilisation level of production capacities can be expressed in a variety of ways.
The category of a capacity taken into consideration in the specific case determines which
of the possible methods is to be used. The
following options are available: ratio of actual utilized capacity to maximum capacity,
ratio of the utilised capacity to available capacity, optimum capacity or to planned capacity.
Sve ove kapacitete iskazujemo najrealnije u odgovarajućim naturalnim jedinicama mjere. Tako, npr., procenat iskorištenosti
ostvarenog i planiranog kapaciteta dobićemo
kao odnose:
All the aforementioned capacities are
expressed in the most realistic manner by corresponding physical units of measurement.
Thus, e.g., utilization percentage of the actual
and planned capacity shall be as follows:
u odnosu na planiranu proizvodnju.
with regards to the planned production.
Količina proizvoda može se izraziti u stvarnim ili u uslovnim jedinicama
mjere.
The amount of products can be expressed in actual units of measurement or in
conditional units of measurement.
Često korišteni model mjerenja iskorištenosti kapaciteta je odnos ostvarene proizvodnje (Q) i maksimalno moguće proizvodnje (Qmax):
Commonly used model for measuring the utilisation of capacities is the ratio of
actual production rate (Q) and the maximum
possible production rate (Qmax):
maksimalno moguća
proizvodnja
Stepen korišćenja kapaciteta (Skk) na
osnovu planiranog n ostvarenog kapaciteta se
dobija na sljedeći način:
Utilisation level of production capacities (Skk) is obtained on the basis of planned and
actual production capacity as follows:
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M. Šarčević: MEĐUZAVISNOST STEPENA KORIŠTENJA KAPACITETA I OSTVARENE DOBITI...
Stepen iskorištenja proizvodne opreme (SKO) se dobija iz obrasca:
Utilisation level of production equipment (SKO) is obtained from the formula:
Kapacitet na osnovu planiranih i ostvarenih mašinskih časova rada (SKK) dobijamo:
The capacity is obtained on the basis of planned and actual machine operating
hours (SKK):
Kapacitet na bazi prerađenih sirovina
i materijala (SKK):
The capacity on the basis of processed
raw materials and supplies (SKK):
Kapacitet na bazi instalisane snage
elektromotora (SKK):
The capacity based on the installed
capacity of electric motors (SKK):
POKAZATELJI ISKORIŠTENOSTI
KAPACITETA
INDICATORS OF UTILISATION OF
CAPACITIES
Sve pokazatelje iskorištenosti kapaciteta možemo svrstati u više grupa:
(1) pokazatelje ekstenzivnog iskorištavanja
kapaciteta sredstava za rad, (2) pokazatelje
intenzivnog iskorištenja kapaciteta sredstava
za rad, (3) pokazatelje integralnog iskorištavanja kapaciteta sredstava za rad, (4) ostale
pokazatelje iskorištavanja kapaciteta.
All of the capacity utilization indicators can be divided into several groups:
(1) indicators of extensive capacity utilization of equipment, (2) indicators of intensive capacity utilization of equipment, (3)
indicators of integrated capacity utilization
of equipment, (4) other indicators of capacity utilization.
Pokazatelji ekstenzivnog iskorištavanja kapaciteta su:
Indicators of extensive capacity utilization are:
Koeficijent iskorištenja kapaciteta
smjene (koeficijent smjenosti - Kis)
Ratio of capacity utilization of one
working shift (working shift ratio - Kis )
pri čemu je:
Where:
Kis - koeficijent smjenosti,
Kis – working shift ratio,
Es1 - efektivno radila mašina u prvoj smjeni,
Es1 – effective operation hours in first shift
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M. Šarčević: INTERDEPENDENCY BETWEEN UTILISATION LEVEL OF PRODUCTION CAPACITIES...
Es2- efektivno radila mašina u drugoj smjeni,
Es2- effective operation hours in second shift,
Sm - ukupan broj mašnna u preduzeću.
Sm – total number of machines in the company.
Na bazi koeficijenta smjenosti (Kis)
dobijamo koeficjent rada opreme (Kro) na
sljedećn način:
On the basis of working shift ratio (Kis) the following ratio of operation of
equipment (DRC) is obtained:
pri čemu je: S – broj smjena.
Where: S – number of working shifts.
Takođe, možemo dobiti i koeficijent
iskorištenosti smjenosti režima rada opreme.
On se dobija stavljanjem u odnos koeficijenta smjenosti prema vremenu trajanja jedne
smjene:
Likewise, it is possible to obtain
the utilization ratio of equipment operation
mode per shifts. It is obtained by comparing
the working shift ratio and the duration of a
working shift:
pri čemu je: Ts - vrijeme trajanja jedne smjene.
where: Ts – duration of a working shift.
Ukoliko se koriste samo ekstenzivni
pokazatelji, moglo bi se doći do pogrešnog
zaključka. Do greške dolazi usljed nepažljive
analize koja nije uspjela da otkrije da li oprema proizvodi nekvalitetnu robu ili škart jer,
ako se to dešava, znatno je manji doprinos
opreme postizanju pozitivnog rezultata preduzeća. Iz tih razloga je neophodno koeficijente ekstenzivnog korišćenja kapaciteta dopuniti koeficijentima intenzivnog korišćenja
kapaciteta.
If only the extensive indicators are
used, one might reach the wrong conclusion.
The error occurs due to careless analysis
which fails to uncover whether the equipment
produces low-quality goods and scrap. If that
happens, the contribution of the equipment
to achieving positive results is significantly
lower. For that reason it is necessary to supplement the ratios of extensive capacity utilisation with the ratios of intensive capacity
utilization.
Koeficijent intenzivnosti kapaciteta pokazuje faktički ostvarenu proizvodnju
određenog kvaliteta i upotrebne vrijednosti u
odnosu na predviđenu, planiranu proizvodnju
u datom vremenu. Za izračunavanje tog koeficijenta koristi se model:
Capacity intensity ratio demonstrate
actual production of a certain quality and
value in comparison to the intended, planned
production within a certain time period. To
calculate this ratio the following model is
used:
pri čemu je:
where:
Kint – koeficijent intenzivnosti kapaciteta,
Kint – capacity intensity ratio
EQ – efektivno ostvarena proizvodnja u datom efektivnom vremenu,
EQ – effective actual production within a certain time period,
PLK – planirana proizvodnja u planiranom
vremenu.
PLK – planned production within the planned
time period.
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M. Šarčević: MEĐUZAVISNOST STEPENA KORIŠTENJA KAPACITETA I OSTVARENE DOBITI...
Integralno korišćenje kapaciteta obuhvata: (1) iskorišćenje proizvodne mogućnosti (kapaciteta), (2) pokazatelj doprinosa
sredstava za rad ostvarenju proizvodnje i
(3) pokazatelj ostvarene proizvodnje u odnosu na sredstva za rad.
Integrated capacity utilisation includes the following: (1) Utilization of production capacities, (2) contribution indicator
of the equipment in the production process
and (3) indicator of actual production in relation to equipment.
Integralno korišćenje se mjeri pomoću
koeficijenta integralnog korišćenja kapaciteta (Kiq). Ovaj koeficijent predstavlja sintezu
ekstenzivnosti i intenzivnosti, odnosno dobija
se umnoškom koeficijenta intenzivnog i ekstenzivnog korištenja kapaciteta.
Integrated use is measured by the ratio
of integrated capacity utilization (Kiq). This
ratio represents a synthesis of extensiveness
and intensity, i.e. it is obtained by multiplying the ratio of intensive and extensive use of
capacities.
Kao važan pokazatelj iskorištenja kapaciteta koristi se i ostvareni obim proizvodnje po jedinici vrijednosti sredstava za rad.
Ovaj pokazatelj se dobija na taj način što se
stavi u odnos ostvareni obim proizvodnje i
vrijednost sredstava za rad. U vidu formule se
izražava na sledeći način:
As an important indicator of capacity
utilization, actual volume of production per
unit of equipment value is used. Such indicator is obtained by placing generated production volume and the value of equipment
in a relation. Such relation is expressed as the
following formula:
ostvareni obim proizodnje po jedinici vrijednosti
sredstava za rad=Q/Vsr
Actual production volume per unit of value of
equipment =Q/Vsr
Povećanje udjela proizvodnje u odnosu na vrijednost opreme je, svakako, važno pitanje za svako preduzeće. Faktori koji
determinišu ovaj odnos mogu se svrstati u
sljedeće cjeline: (1) faktori koji doprinose
povećanju produktivnosti opreme, a koji su
rezultat provedene rekonstrukcije i modernizacije postojeće opreme kao i uvođenje
nove opreme; (2) faktori koji doprinose
povećanju broja smjena rada opreme; (3)
poboljšanje iskorišćenja radnog vremena
opreme; (4) ubrzanje uvođenja (zamjene
stare) nove opreme; (5) smanjenje vrijednosti opreme, uvođenjem savremenije i djelotvornije; (6) zamjena ručnog rada mašinskim itd.
Increasing the share of production in relation to the equipment value is certainly a very
important issue for any company. The factors that
determine this relationship can be divided into the
following sections: (1) Factors contributing to the
increase of equipment productivity - the result of
the reconstruction and modernization of the existing equipment as well as the installation of new
equipment; (2) Factors contributing to the increase
in the number of working shifts of equipment; (3)
improvement of equipment work time utilisation;
(4) accelerating the introduction of new (replacement of old) equipment; (5) depreciation of the
equipment by introducing more modern and more
efficient equipment; (6) replacement of manual
labour by machinery and so on.
Pokazatelj vrijednosti sredstava za rad
po jedinici rezultata je, takođe, bitan pokazatelj mjerenja kapaciteta Ovaj koeficijent se
dobija iz odnosa vrijednosti sredstava za rad i
ostvarene proizvodnje.
Indicator of the equipment value per a
unit of result is also an important indicator of
measuring the capacity. This ratio is calculated from the ratio of the equipment value and
actual production.
Cilj svakog preduzeća je da prvi pokazatelj bude što veći, odnosno da ima što
The goal of any company is to keep the
first indicator as high as possible, i.e. to ensure
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M. Šarčević: INTERDEPENDENCY BETWEEN UTILISATION LEVEL OF PRODUCTION CAPACITIES...
veću vrijednost, a da drugi bude što manji.
To podrazumijeva da svako preduzeće želi
ostvariti što je moguće veću proizvodnju
po jedinici vrijednosti sredstava za rad, što
je pokazatelj doprinosa (učinka) instalisanih sredstava za rad ostvarenom obimu
proizvodnje.
that its value is the highest possible, while the
other should be as low as possible. This implies that every company tends to achieve the
maximum amount of production per unit of
value of equipment, which is an indication of
the contribution (impact) of installed equipment for the actual production volume.
RAZVOJNI TOK TROŠKOVA I ZONE
KORIŠĆENJA KAPACITETA
DEVELOPMENT OF COSTS AND ZONES
OF CAPACITIES UTILISATION
Dinamička analiza troškova u funkciji
promjena stepena korišćenja kapaciteta pokazuje da se ovaj oblik ulaganja različito ponaša
u pojedinim slojevima – zonama – proizvodnje. Pri tome, svaka od komponenti ukupnog
iznosa troškova – proporcionalna, fiksna ili
relativno fiksna – ima specifično ponašanje
uslovljeno različitim slojevima stepena korišćenja kapaciteta.
Dynamic analysis of the cost in the
function of changes in the capacity utilization
level indicates that this form of investment
behaves differently in different layers - zones
– of production. In addition, each of the components of the total costs - proportional, fixed
or relatively fixed - has a specific behaviour
caused by different layers of the capacity utilisation level.
Pored toga, ova analiza pokazuje
specifičnosti ponašanja troškova ne samo u
ukupnom iznosu već i po jedinici proizvoda, kako za pojedine komponente tako i u
prosjeku.
In addition, this analysis shows specific behaviour of costs not only in the total
amount but also per unit of production, both
for individual components as well as for average value.
Osnovni instrument analize dinamike troškova su zone obima proizvodnje,
s obzirom na to da je struktura troškova
odraz veličine kapaciteta. Ove zone se
međusobno razlikuju po tome što uslovljavaju degresiju, progresiju ili optimalnost troškova u odnosu na proizvodnju.
Naime pri prelasku iz jedne zone obima u
drugu zonu mijenja se struktura troškova
i dinamika pojedinačnih vrsta troškova u
okviru zone.
The main instruments of cost dynamics analysis are the production volume
zones, given that the cost structure is a reflection of the capacity size. These zones
differ from each other by causing degression, progression or optimality of costs in
relation to the production. Namely, the transition from one volume zone to another volume zone changes the cost structure and the
dynamics of the individual types of costs
within the zone.
Zona degresije troškova prostire se
od nultog stepena iskorišćenosti kapaciteta do granice degresije troškova, koja se
u prosjeku nalazi na više od ¾ kapaciteta.
Zona u kojoj ukupni troškovi preduzeća
ispodproporcionalno rastu, a prosječni
troškovi opadaju, naziva se zona degresije. Na kraju zone degresije ukupni troškovi po jedinici proizvoda su najniži pa
je u toj tački i najveća ekonomičnost proizvodnje.
Degression zone covers the area from
the zero degree of capacity utilization to the
extent of cost degression, which is on average
on more than ¾ capacities. The zone in which
the total costs of a company are rising disproportionally with the drop of average costs,
is called the degression zone. At the end of
the degression zone the total cost per unit of
the product are the lowest, meaning that the
cost-effectiveness of the production at that
point is the highest.
13
M. Šarčević: MEĐUZAVISNOST STEPENA KORIŠTENJA KAPACITETA I OSTVARENE DOBITI...
Nakon zone degresije prostire se zona
optimuma. U ovoj zoni ukupni troškovi rastu
jedno vrijeme proporcionalno s povećanjem
obima proizvodnje, dok troškovi po jedinici
proizvoda ostaju konstantni i imaju karakter
proporcionalnih troškova. U ovoj zoni se postižu najniži troškovi po jedinici proizvoda.
Zona optimuma obično je veoma uzana a u
pojedinim preduzećima ona je samo jedna
tačka, odnosno jedan stepen iskorišćenosti
kapaciteta. Ova zona leži kod visokih stepena
korištenja kapaciteta, odnosno izmedju 80 i
90% iskorišćenosti kapaciteta.
Following the degression zone is the
optimum zone. Within this zone, for a certain
time, the total costs increase proportionally
with the increase in production volume, while
the cost per unit of the product remain constant and have the character of proportionate
costs. This zone provides for the lowest cost
per unit of the product. Optimum zone is usually very narrow and in some companies it is
only represented by a point or a single level of
capacity utilization. This zone is positioned in
the high level of capacity utilisation, i.e. between 80 and 90% of capacity utilization.
Kada stepen korišćenja kapaciteta
prekorači zonu optimalnosti, ukupni troškovi
preduzeća progresivno rastu. Ovo uslovljava
i porast ukupnih troškova po jedinici proizvoda. Taj nivo zaposlenosti u kojem ukupni
troškovi brže rastu od porasta obima proizvodnje predstavlja zonu progresije. U ovoj
zoni, fiksni troškovi, koji su već ionako ovdje
niski, po jedinici proizvoda opadaju sve manje i manje po proizvodu od stepena do stepena zaposlenosti, dok varijabilni troškovi sve
više rastu po jedinici proizvoda. Zona progresije leži iznad optimalne zone. Ona obuhvata
najviše stepene korišćenja kapaciteta i prostire se od zone optimalnosti do granice kapaciteta. Ukoliko se stepen korišćenja kapaciteta
više udaljava od optimalne zone u pravcu granice kapaciteta, progresija troškova biće jača.
When the capacity utilization level
exceeds the optimum zone, the total cost of
the company grows progressively. This causes an increase in the total cost per unit of the
product. Such condition in which the total
costs grow faster than the increase in production volume represents the progression zone.
Within this zone, the fixed costs, which are
already low, continue dropping per unit of
the product, while the variable costs continue
growing per unit of the product. Progression
zone lies above the optimum zone. It includes
the highest levels of capacity utilization and
extends from the optimum zone to the border zone of capacity. If the level of capacity
utilization is shifted away from the optimum
zone towards the capacity border zone, the
progression of costs will be intensified.
Sve karakteristične promjene stepena
zaposlenosti po zonama, najčešće su rezultat
organizacionih mjera pri korišćenju raspoloživih proizvodnih mogućnosti.
All the characteristic changes in the
level of engagement per zones, are mainly the
result of organizational measures in the use of
available production capacities.
U razvojnom toku ukupnih troškova i
prosječnih troškova po jedinici proizvoda razlikuje se zone: (1) zona degresije, (2) zona
optimalnosti, (2) zona progresije.
The following zones can be distinguished
in the development progress of the total cost
and average cost per unit: (1) degression zone,
(2) zone of optimality, (3) progression zone
Kada mezoekonomski sistem ima uspostavljen određeni kapacitet, čije korišćenje još nije
započelo, ukupni troškovi elemenata proizvodnje
ipak su veći od nule. Naime, i pri nultom stepenu
korišćenja kapaciteta javljaju se fiksni troškovi
koji su uslovljeni samim uspostavljanjem proizvodne mogućnosti mezoekonomskog sistema i
koji su neotklonjivi pri njenom nekorištenju.
When the mesoeconomic system has established a certain capacity, whose utilisation has
not yet been initiated, the total cost of production
elements is still higher than zero. Namely, even
in the zero level of capacity utilization there are
fixed costs that are caused thereby establishing
production capabilities of mesoeconomic system
and are unrecoverable in its non-use.
14
M. Šarčević: INTERDEPENDENCY BETWEEN UTILISATION LEVEL OF PRODUCTION CAPACITIES...
Međutim, svaka jedinica proizvoda nastala u okviru datog kapaciteta izaziva
određene troškove, povećavajući tako ukupan
iznos ovoga oblika ulaganja iznad nivoa koji
čine fiksni troškovi. Ovaj prirast troškova izazvan izradom određenog broja jedinica proizvoda obuhvata, uglavnom, troškove osnovnog i pomoćnog materijala, radne snage na
poslovima izrade, kao i troškova uslovljenih
organizacionom strukturom korištenja kapaciteta. To, drugim riječima, znači da svaka
nova količina proizvoda u okviru datog kapaciteta uslovljava pojavu proporcionalnih
troškova (Tπ) i relativno fiknih troškova (Tp)
ukoliko se uspostavlja priprema novog sloja
korištenja kapaciteta.1
However, each of the product unit
made within the capacity causes certain expenditures, thus increasing the total amount
of this form of investment above the level
formed by fixed costs. Such cost increase
caused by producing a number of units of the
product mainly includes the cost of primary
and auxiliary materials, the labour in charge
of production, as well as the costs conditioned
by the organizational structure of capacity utilization. In other words, it means that every
new product quantity within the given capacity influences the development of proportional
cost (Tπ) and relatively fixed cost (Tp) if the
preparation of a new layer of capacity utilization is established.1
S obzirom na specifičnosti djelovanja
svakog od ovih karakterističnih slojeva obima proizvodnje u korištenju uspostavljenog
kapaciteta konkretnog mezoekonomsko sistema na ponašanje ukupnih troškova i troškova
po jedinici proizvoda, u ekonomskoj teoriji
i praksi posebno se tretiraju zona degresije,
zona progresije i zona optimalnosti.
Given the specific action of each of
these characteristic layers of production volume in the utilisation of established capacity of specific mesoeconomic system onto the
behaviour of total costs and costs per unit of
production, both in economic theory and in
practice, the degression zone and optimality
zone are treated separately.
Zona degresije
Degression zone
Zona degresije se prostire od nultog
stepena zaposlenosti do granice degresije,
tj. do zone optimalnosti. U ovoj zoni troškovi imaju degresivni razvojni tok tako da
ukupni troškovi rastu ispod proporcionalno
a troškovi po jedinici proizvoda opadaju, što
je uslovljeno degresijom fiksnih troškova po
jedinici, dok proporcionalni troškovi ostaju
manje - više isti. U početku ove zone degresija troškova je veoma jaka i opadanje troškova
od jednog stepena zaposlenosti do drugog je
znatna; kako se kapacitet više upošljava dolazi se do granica degresije i razlika između
troškova po stepenima je sve manja. U ovoj
zoni je specifično da se mora dovesti u vezu
proizvodnja (brže raste ) i troškovi. Zona degresije se proteže do tačke kada se ukupni
Degression zone extends from the zero
level of engagement to the degression borderline, i.e. the optimality zone. The costs in this
zone have degressive pace so that the total costs
increase disproportionally with declining cost
per unit of production, caused by degression of
fixed costs per unit, while the proportional costs
remain more or less - the same. At the beginning
of this zone the cost degression is very intense,
with significant decline in the cost from one engagement degree to another; as the capacity is
increasingly engaged, the borderline of degression is reached reducing the difference between
the costs per degree. In this zone is characterised
by the fact that the (faster growing) production
and costs must be brought into correlation. Degression zone extends to the point where the to-
1 Uspostavljanje kapaciteta podrazumijeva globalnu pripremu proizvodnje. Međutim, da bi se započelo sa izradom
konkretneog proizvoda, preduzeće mora uspostaviti posebu
pripremu u vidu projektovanja, nabavke, istraživanja tržišta i
sl. za tu vrstu proizvoda.
1 Establishing capacity involves the preparation of global
production. However, in order to begin drafting a specific
product, the company must establish a special preparation
in the form of design, procurement, market research and the
like. for such type of product
15
M. Šarčević: MEĐUZAVISNOST STEPENA KORIŠTENJA KAPACITETA I OSTVARENE DOBITI...
troškovi počinju povećavati proporcionalno
sa povećanjem obima proizvodnje.
tal costs are beginning to increase in proportion
with the increase in production volume.
Tq
Q
Grafikon 1. Razvojni tok troškova po jedinici
proizvoda (cijene koštanja ) u funkciji dinamike proizvodnje po karakterističnim zonama
korišćenja kapaciteta.
Graph 1. Development stream of costs per
unit of production (cost) in the function of the
production dynamics per characteristic zones
of capacity utilisation.
Troškovi po jedinici opadaju od tačke
kada se izjednačavaju sa varijabilnim troškovima i prelaze u zonu optimalnosti.
The cost per unit declines from the point
where they are equalised with variable costs
and they transit into the zone of optimality.
T
Q
Grafikon 2. Razvojni tok ukupnih troškova u
funkciji dinamike proizvodnje po karakterističnim zonama korišćenja kapaciteta.
Graph 2. Development stream of the total cost
in the function of the production dynamics per
characteristic zones of capacity utilisation.
Zona optimalnosti
Optimality zone
Zona optimalnosti – predstavlja sloj
(od zone degresije do zone progresije) korišćenja kapaciteta u kome se ukupni troškovi
proporcionalno povećavaju sa promjenom
Optimality zone - a layer (from degression zone to progression zone) of capacity utilization in which the total costs increase
proportionally with the change of production
16
M. Šarčević: INTERDEPENDENCY BETWEEN UTILISATION LEVEL OF PRODUCTION CAPACITIES...
obima proizvodnje. Troškovi po jedinici proizvoda stagniraju i dostižu najmanji iznos.
Kada se nastavlja povećanje obima proizvodnje, dolazi do povećavanja troškova i prelazi
se u zonu progresije.
volume. Costs per unit of production are in
stagnation and reach the minimum amount.
When the increase in the volume of production is continued, there is an increase in the
cost, thus transiting into the progression zone.
Međutim, u ekonomskoj stvarnosti,
razvojni tok troškova ne odvija se sa tako preciznom razlikom između degresije i progresije, nego se između tih karakterističnih slojeva
javlja jedan sloj u kome cijena koštanja, odnosno iznos troškova po jedinici proizvoda,
stagnira.
However, in economic reality, the
development stream of costs does not occur
with such precise difference between degression and progression. A layer in which the
cost price and the costs per unit of production
are stagnating, appears between those two
typical layers.
Taj sloj u kome se ukupni troškovi
kreću proporcionalno promjenama obima
proizvodnje, a cijena koštanja stagnira, naziva se zona optimalnosti. Pojava zone optimalnosti umjesto jedne tačke, koja označava optimalni obim proizvodnje, rezultat
je složenosti organizacione strukture korišćenja uspostavljenog kapaciteta. Ova ekonomska pojava mijenjanja obima proizvodnje u okviru datog kapaciteta ponaša se pod
dejstvom mnogobrojnih i različitih faktora,
te se na granici između njenog jednog i drugog karakterističnog dijela ne javlja oštar
prelaz nego se stvara određeni sloj čija je
širina uslovljena kvantitativnom strukturom ukupnih troškova konkretnog mezoekonomskog sistema.
Such layer in which the total costs
move proportionally to changes in production
volume while the cost price is stagnant, is
called the zone of optimality. The occurrence
of optimality zone instead of a single point,
which indicates the optimal production volume, is a result of the complexity of the organizational structure of the established capacity utilisation. This economic phenomenon of
changing the volume of production within the
given capacity acts under the influence of numerous and various factors, without a sharp
transition of the borderlines between the two
of its distinctive parts, but rather with a layer whose width is determined by the quantitative structure of the total cost of a specific
mesoeconomic system.
Kada na određenom stepenu korišćenja kapaciteta prestane degresija troškova, pri
daljem povećanju obima proizvodnje ukupni
troškovi se povećavaju u srazmjeri sa povećanjem obima proizvodnje, a troškovi po jedinici proizvoda ostaju konstantni. Takva pojava
se može kvantitativno izraziti. Do toga dolazi jer se koeficijent promjene troškova (ΔKt
) i koeficijent promjene obima proizvodnje u
okviru datog kapaciteta (ΔKij ) međusobno
izjednačavaju:
When a cost degression ceases at a
certain level of capacity utilization, In the
case of further increase in the total volume of
production there is an increase in total costs in
proportion to the increase in production volume, with the costs per unit remaining constant. This phenomenon can be quantified. It
occurs because the coefficient of variation of
costs (ΔKt) and the coefficient of variation in
production volume within a given capacity
(ΔKij) are mutually equalised:
ΔKt = ΔKg.
Granica između zone degresije, zone
optimalnosti i zone progresije sklone su pomjeranju unutar mezoekonomskog sistema,
u vezi sa promjenom dejstva faktora koji
na poslovanje tog sistema djeluju. Tako na
The borderline between the zones of
degression, optimality and progression are
prone to movement within the mesoeconomic
system, in connection with the change of the
factors acting on the operation of such sys17
M. Šarčević: MEĐUZAVISNOST STEPENA KORIŠTENJA KAPACITETA I OSTVARENE DOBITI...
primjer, promjene na tržištu sirovina i gotovih proizvoda, izmjene ekonomske politike
društvene zajednice i sl. usloviće promjenu poslovne politike konkretnog mezoekonomskog sistema. U tom smislu doći će do
izbora novih proizvodnih programa, povećanja ili smanjenja broja serija i njihovih
veličina, izmjene asortimana proizvoda i
sl. Zato je nužno stalno povećanje svih kretanja i na toj osnovi donošenje fleksibilnih
planova poslovanja.
tem. For example, changes in the market of
raw materials and finished products, changes
of the economic policy of a community, etc,
will cause a change of business policy of the
particular mesoeconomic system. In that sense,
there will be a selection of new production programs, increase or decrease of the number of
series and their quantity, change in the range
of products, etc. Therefore, it is necessary to
continuously increase all the movements and
adopt flexible business plans on that basis.
Zona progresije
Progression zone
Obim proizvodnje, u okviru datog
kapaciteta, može da se povećava i preko
zone optimalnosti, ali tada dolazi do pojave progresije kako ukupnih troškova tako
i cijene koštanja. Taj sloj proizvodnje, od
gornje tačke zone optimalnosti do nivoa
tehničkog kapaciteta, karakteriše se intenzivnijim rastom troškova od porasta obima proizvodnje, zbog čega se naziva zona
progresije.
The volume of production, within a
given capacity, can also be increased through
the zone of optimality. However it causes the
occurrence of progression both in the total
cost and the cost price. Such production layer,
from the top level of the optimality zone to
the level of technical capacity, is characterized by intensive growth of the cost from the
increase in production volume, which is why
it is called the progression zone.
Povećanje proizvodnje iznad nivoa
zone optimalnosti uslovljava prenaprezanje
uslovljene organizacione strukture korišćenja
kapaciteta. U takvim uslovima progresivno
rastu prosječni troškovi po jedinici proizvoda,
odnosno cijena koštanja, što negativno utiče
na poslovni uspjeh.
The increase in production above the
zone of optimality caused overstressing of the
conditioned organizational structure of capacity utilisation. In such conditions, the average
cost per unit of production, or cost price, is
progressively increased, which adversely affects the business success.
Da bi preduzeće ostvarilo dobit,
mora da ostvari prihod veći od ukupnih
troškova. U protivnom, ako su troškovi
veći od prihoda, preduzeće ostvaruje gubitak, koji se može pokriti samo smanjenjem
imovine preduzeća. Ukoliko se kapacitet
preduzeća koristi u planiranim okvirima,
onda je realna pretpostavka da će prihod
koji se ostvari realizacijom planiranog kapaciteta doprinijeti da prihod bude veći od
troškova. Imajući u vidu da troškovi preduzeća imaju svoju strukturu, te se pojedini
elementi te strukture različito ponašaju, u
skladu sa dinamikom korišćenja kapaciteta
For the company to make profit, it
must achieve the revenue higher than the total
cost. Otherwise, if the costs exceed revenues,
the company makes losses, which can be covered only by reducing assets of the company. If the capacity of the company is used as
planned, it would be realistic to assume that
the revenue derived from the implementation of the planned capacity will contribute
to having revenues exceeding the costs. Bearing in mind that the costs of a company have
their own structure, and that some elements
of the structure behave differently in accordance with the rate of capacity utilization and,
Ostvarenje dobiti u preduzeću
18
Profit making of the company
M. Šarčević: INTERDEPENDENCY BETWEEN UTILISATION LEVEL OF PRODUCTION CAPACITIES...
a, prije svega, otpornost fiksne komponente da se prilagodi promjenama kapaciteta,
mnoga preduzeća može dovesti do gubitka. Uslov za ostvarenje dobiti u preduzeću
je korištenje kapaciteta u planiranim okvirima. Dajemo jedan primjer kako neostvarenje planiranih ciljeva dovodi preduzeće
u gubitak.
above all, the resistance of the fixed components to adapt to changes in capacity may result in causing losses to many companies. The
requirement for profit making in the company
is the utilization of its capacities as planned.
Here is an example of how the failure to realize the planned objectives results in a loss for
the company.
Tabela 1
Pregled iskorištenja kapaciteta i vrijednosti
proizvodnje u periodu 1. januar - 31. decembar
2004. godine.
Table 1
Summary of capacity utilization and production
value in the period 1st January – 31st December
2004.
R. br.
[No.]
Grupa proiz- Planirano za
voda
2005. god.
[Product
U fizičkim
group]
jedinicama
mjere
[Planned
for 2005.
In physical
measurement units]
Ostvareno
u 2004. god.
U fizičkim
jedinicama
mjere
[Actual
production
in 2004. In
physical
measurement units]
2
Cijena po jedinici mjere
[Price per
unit]
Vrijednost u
KM
[Value in
KM]
3
2x3
Stepen
iskorištenja
kapaciteta
ostvareno planirano
[Utilisation
level of capacities
actual planned]
1.
Proizvod 1
Product 1
52.300
43 713
5,45
238235,85
83,58
2.
Proizvod 2
Product 2
30.000
27 104
6,85
185662,40
90,34
3.
Proizvod 3
Product 3
25.000
17 881
15,75
281625,75
71,52
4.
Proizvod 4
Product 4
12.000
7 794
3,70
28837,80
64,95
5.
Proizvod 5
Product 5
150
97
70,70
6875,90
64,66
6.
Proizvod 6
Product 6
220
151
130,00
19630,00
68,86
7.
Proizvod 7
Product 7
510
411
175,00
71925,00
80,58
8.
Proizvod 8
Product 8
170
162
108,00
17469,00
95,29
9.
Proizvod 9
Product 9
90
82
360,00
29520,00
91,11
10.
Proizvod 10
Product 10
1
1
10,00
10,00
100,00
11.
Proizvod 11
Product 11
150
133
40,50
53865,00
88,66
12.
Proizvod 12
Product 12
150.000
123.759
5,00
618795,00
82,51
13.
UKUPNO
TOTAL
1552460,70
19
M. Šarčević: MEĐUZAVISNOST STEPENA KORIŠTENJA KAPACITETA I OSTVARENE DOBITI...
Tabela 2
0stvarenje plana prihoda i rashoda
preduzeća AA
R. br.
No.
Naziv
Title
1.
Prihod od realizacije proizvoda i
usluga
[Revenue from sales and services]
Prihod od usluga i zakupnina
[Revenue from services and leasehold]
Ostali prihodi
[Other revenues]
UKUPAN PRIHOD
[TOTAL REVENUE]
Direktni troškovi
[Direct expenditures]
Indirektni troškovi
[Indirect expenditures]
UKUPNI TROŠKOVI
[TOTAL EXPENDITURES]
2.
3.
13.
1.
2.
3.
Table 2
Realisation of the plan of revenues and
expenditures of the company AA
Ostvareno u КМ
Achieved in BAM
2
Planirano
Planned
3
Indeks
Index
2x3
1.817.935
18.235.400
9,97
325.200
4.250.100
7,65
412.500
2.850.000
14,47
2.555.635
25.335.500
10,70
16.556.000
24.213.000
68,38
66.126.000
84.280.000
78,46
82.681.000
108.493.000
73,42
Gubitak = ostvareni ukupan prihod –
ukupni troškovi = 2.555.635 – 82.681.000 =
- 80.125.365 KM.
Loss = total realized revenue - total
expenditures = 2.555.635 – 82.681.000 =
- 80.125.365 BAM.
Prema tome, u posmatranom periodu preduzeće je ostvarilo gubitak od 80.125.365 KM.
Therefore, in this period the company
made a loss of 80.125.365 BAM.
Iz navedene tabele se vidi da su svi
pokazatelji, izuzev prihoda od usluga, u značajnom padu, što je posljedica slabog korišćenja kapaciteta i slabe naplate za realizovane
proizvode od kupaca.
This above table shows that all indicators, except for Revenue from services, register a significant decline as a result of low
capacity utilization and low collection of payments from the customers for the products.
Preduzeće AA je, raskidom kooperantskih odnosa izgubilo značajan dio tržišta.
By terminating its cooperation relations, the company AA has lost a significant
segment of the market.
Iz navedenog primjera preduzeća AA se
jasno vidi da je, i uprkos visokom stepenu iskorišćenja kapaciteta (u konkretnom primjeru preko 70%), preduzeće zapalo u gubitak. Gubitak
je tim veći što se više koristi kapacitet a proizvodi se ne realizuju. Time se imobilišu obrtna
sredstva, a ako tome dodamo i neiskorišćene
fiksne troškove, onda je gubitak nenadoknadiv
i prestanak preduzeća sa radom je neizbježan.
Prema tome, nije samo slabo iskorišćenje kapaciteta odgovorno za gubitak, već može do gubitka dovesti i njegovo pogrešno korišćenje.
From the above example of the company AA it is clear that, despite the high degree of
capacity utilization (in this case over 70%), the
company plunged into loss. The loss is even
greater if the capacity is increasingly utilised
without the realisation of the products. This
immobilizes liquid assets, and if we add the
unused fixed costs, such loss is irreparable and
the termination of the company’s operations
is inevitable. Thus, not only the poor capacity utilization is responsible for the loss, but its
misuse can also lead to the loss.
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M. Šarčević: INTERDEPENDENCY BETWEEN UTILISATION LEVEL OF PRODUCTION CAPACITIES...
ZAKLJUČAK
CONCLUSION
Cilj i ekonomski motiv poslovanja
preduzeća je da ostvari što veće poslovne rezultate, odnosno da ostvari što veću
dobit, kao finalni izraz njegovog ekonomskog rezultata.
The objective and economic motive of
a company’s business is to achieve the highest
business results possible as well as to make
the highest profit possible, as the final expression of its economic result.
“Dobitak je motiv onog ko raspolaže
u slobodnim sredstvima, kapitalom da svoja sredstva i energiju, pamet i radnu snagu
uloži u privrednu aktivnost, i da na osnovu
uložene energije, pomoću sredstava ostvari
dobitak, koji će mu obezbeđivati željeni nivo
života, a za preduzeće opstanak i kontinuitet
poslovanja, kao i razvoj, odnosno podizanje
nivoa poslovanja i kvaliteta ekonomije na
viši nivo” (Kostić, Milojević, 2001).
“Profit is the motive of the one disposing
with the free assets - capital to invest its assets
and energy, knowhow and manpower in economic activity, and on the basis of the energy invested, obtains profit utilising the assets, which
will provide the desired living quality to him, as
well as the survival and continuation of operation
and development of the company, i.e. increasing
the level of business and the quality of the economy to a higher level” (Kostić, Milojević, 2001).
Međutim, ukoliko preduzeće svojim poslovanjem ostvaruje veće ukupne
rashode od ukupnih prihoda, kao što je slučaj sa pomenutim preduzećem, da posluje
sa gubitkom. Gubitak može biti uslovljen
većim brojem faktora: društvenim, organizacionim i sl.
However, if the company in the
course of its business registers higher total
expenditures than the total revenue, as is
the case with the aforementioned company,
to operate at a loss, such loss can be caused
by a number of factors: social, organizational, etc.
Cilj rada bio je da se prikaže kako se
troškovi i rezultati u odnosu na promjenu stepena korišćenja kapaciteta nalaze u međuzavisnosti.
The aim of the paper was to demonstrate how the costs and results in relation to
the change in the level of capacity utilization
are highly interdependent.
U slučaju kad se dešava da je stepen
korištenja kapaciteta na znatno nižem nivou,
posljedice su povećanje cijene koštanja pod
uticajem fiksnih troškova a, samim tim, i smanjenje finansijskih rezultata. Razlog je u tome
što se fiksni troškovi ne mijenjaju srazmjerno promjeni obima proizvodnje, a po jedinici
proizvoda su manji ukoliko je obim proizvodnje veći, koji opet zavisi od stepena iskorištenosti kapaciteta.
In case that the level of capacity utilization is at a considerably lower level, the consequences include the increase in cost under
the influence of fixed costs which, consequently, causes the reduction of financial results. The
reason is that fixed costs do not change in proportion to changes in production volume and
are lower per unit of production if the volume
of production is higher, which in turn depends
on the level of capacity utilization.
Bitno je naglasiti da je u interesu preduzeća da iskorištenje kapaciteta
bude na što višem nivou, ali u okviru
zone optimalnosti, jer samo tako (bez zanemarivanja drugih faktora, npr. organizacionih uslova) preduzeće obezbjeđuje
opstanak na tržištu i postiže zadovoljavajuće rezultate.
It is important to note that it is in the
interest of the company to maintain the capacity utilization at the highest level possible, but
within the optimality zone, since it is the only
way (without disregarding other factors, such
as organizational conditions) which provides
the company with survival at the market, enabling it to achieve satisfactory results.
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M. Šarčević: MEĐUZAVISNOST STEPENA KORIŠTENJA KAPACITETA I OSTVARENE DOBITI...
LITERATURA
LITERATURA
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Kostić, M., Milojević, Ž. (2001). Corporate
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Stavrić B., Anđelković R., Berberović Š.
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Stavrić B., Anđelković R., Berberović Š.
(1994). Corporate Economics.
Beograd.
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Republike Srpske.
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Stavrić, B., Berberović, R. (1990). Troškovi
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and Corporate Business Policy.
Ekonomski fakultet Banja Luka.
22
EKONOMIJA PREDUZETNIŠTVA - ENTERPRISES ECONOMY
ISTRAZIVAČKO-RAZVOJNA FUNKCIJA KAO OKOSNICA
TEHNOLOŠKIH INOVACIJA
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FUNCTIONS AS THE BACKBONE
TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS
Ognjen Zupur, dipl. ek.
Pregledni članak
doi 10.7251/OIK1301003Z, UDK 001.895:005.511
Review paper
REZIME
SUMMARY
Mada su praktično srasli u jednu cjelinu kojom čine skup aktivnosti unutar velikih
kompanija, istraživanje (Research) i razvoj
(Development) su termini koji opisuju dvije
prilično različite aktivnosti. Ukoliko se detaljnije analiziraju troškovi velikih kompanija
ustanoviće se da je većina uloženih sredstava
utrošena na razvoj, a mnogo manje na istraživanje. Rezultat osnovnih istraživanja jesu
nova naučna znanja: teoreme i teorije, koje se
predstavljaju naučnim člancima i knjigama.
Naspram toga, polazna tačka razvoja već je
ustanovljena u vidu kreiranog skupa znanja,
dok napori na osnovu rezultata inovativnih aktivnosti imaju za rezultat tehnološke inovacije
koje često mogu biti zaštićene patentima. Stoga
predmet istraživanja u ovom radu jeste upravo
sagledavanje istraživačko-razvojne djelatnosti
kao okosnice tehnoloških inovacija.
Although practically coalesced into a single unit, which consists of a set of activities within
large companies, research (Research) and Development (Development) are terms that describe two
quite different activities. If a more detailed analysis
of the costs of large companies shall be established
that most of the investment was spent on development, and much less on research. The result of
basic research are new scientific knowledge: theorems and theories, which represent the scientific
articles and books. In contrast, the starting point
of development is already established in the mind
created a set of knowledge, while efforts are based
on the results of innovative activities are the result of technological innovations that can often be
protected by patents. Therefore, the subject of this
paper is just perception research and development
activities as well as the backbone of technological
innovation.
Ključne riječi: istraživanje,
tehnologija, inovacije.
Keywords:
research,
technology, innovations.
razvoj,
development,
UVOD
INTRODUCTION
Sagledavši vrijeme iza nas, može se
konstatovati da su pojedinci u svojim profesijama postizali vrhunske rezultate, odnosno
otkrivali nepoznanice na osnovu sopstvenih
intuicija i talenta. Međutim, proces je bio
spor i veoma dug, sa mnogobrojnim promašenim eksperimentima, pri čemu bi na putokaz i kretanje od početka ukazivao upravo
neuspjeli eksperiment. U svijetu savremenog
poslovanja i neizvjesne sutrašnjice, intuicija
je zamijenjena naučnim prilazom u postizanju
After having analyzed the time behind us, it can be concluded that individuals in their professions achieved superior
results, and discovering unknowns based on
their own intuition and talent. However, the
process was slow and very long, with many
a failed experiment, wherein the at sign and
the movement from the beginning indicated
just failed experiment. In the world of modern business and an uncertain tomorrow, intuition is replaced by scientific approach to
23
O. Zupur: ISTRAŽIVAČKO-RAZVOJNA FUNKCIJA KAO OKOSNICA TEHNOLOŠKIH INOVACIJA
vrhunskih rezultata. Savremeno poslovanje i
progresivni svijet su, zahvaljujući nauci, otkrili mnogobrojne nepoznanice i kreirali tehničke, tehnološke i druge novine ne samo u
posljednjih pet decenija nego u cijeloj ljudskoj istoriji.
achieve superior results. Modern business
and the whole world thanks to science discovered many unknowns and create technical, technological and other innovations in
the past five decades, but in all of human
history.
Prenošenjem poslova na mehanizme,
čovjek je stvorio uslove da na osnovu istih
mehanizama i uz više vremena, ubrza, efektivnije inovira i razvija nauku, kao najefikasniji instrument u upoznavanju nepoznatog.
Naročito je bitno upoznavanje prirodnog
poretka i primjene zakonitosti na društveni
poredak, odnosno na organizacione sisteme.
Zbog toga se i inovativne aktivnosti povezuju
sa naukom i to sa razvojem fundamentalnih,
ali i primijenjenih nauka. Razvojem nauke,
bitno je razvijati i „kontrolisanu maštu“ sa
traženjem odgovora na postavljena pitanja. Sa
druge strane, bez obzira na to da li su u pitanju
nauka, stručna znanja ili postupci, tehnologija je ta koja je uključena u svaku aktivnost
koja stvara novu vrijednost. Osnovu razvoja
tehnologije čine prirodne nauke. Međutim,
tehnologija je velikim dijelom bazirana i na
matematici, a sve više se veže za psihologiju, sociologiju, medicinu i dr. Svakako da je
jedna od najznačajnijih i najjačih poluga savremene ekonomije međusobna povezanost,
uslovljenost i zavisnost nauke, razvoja, inovativnih aktivnosti i tehnološkog progresa,
što će se i prezentovati u ovom radu.
Transferring operations to the mechanisms, man has created conditions for the basis
of the same mechanisms and with more time,
accelerate, innovate and develop more effective
teaching, as the most effective tool in getting to
know the unknown. It is especially important
to meet the natural order and the application of
the principles of the social order, and the organizational systems. This is why the innovative
activities associated with science and the development of fundamental, and applied sciences.
Development of science, it is essential to develop “controlled imagination” to answer the following questions. On the other hand, regardless
of whether it comes to science, expertise or procedures, technology is the one that is involved in
any activity that creates new value. Based on the
development of technology make natural science. However, the technology is largely based
on mathematics, and is increasingly tied to psychology, sociology, medicine, etc. Certainly one
of the most important and most powerful lever
of modern economic interconnectivity, causality
and dependence science, development of innovative activities and technological progress, it
will be and presented in this paper.
PROCES TEHNOLOŠKIH
INOVACIJA
TECHNOLOGICAL INNOVATIONS
PROCESS
Težak izazov za većinu kompanija
je kako riječi pretvoriti u djelo koje donosi praktične rezultate u vidu narastajućih
prihoda putem konstantnog toka inovacija, a zarad izgradnje konkurentske prednosti (Skarzinski i Gibson, 2009). Tehnološke inovacije su vrsta inovacija koja može
izmijeniti konkurentski položaj preduzeća,
ali upravljanje inovativnim aktivnostima je
kompleksno, uključujući ljude, organizacione procese i planove. Tehnološke inovacije
sačinjene su od tri interfunkcionalne faze u
Difficult challenge for most companies
is to turn words into action that delivers practical
results in terms of increasing revenue through a
constant flow of innovation, and for the sake of
building a competitive advantage (Skarzinski
and Gibson, 2009). Technological innovations
are the kind of innovation that can change the
competitive position of the company, but the
management of innovative activities is complex,
including the involvement of people, process
and organizational plans. Technological innovations are made up of three stages in the self-de-
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O. Zupur: RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FUNCTIONS AS THE BACKBONE TECHNOLOGICAL...
samorazvijajućem ciklusu. Prva se odnosi na
kreaciju, odsnosno primjenjivu ideju. Druga na praktičnu primjenu, a treća na njeno
raspršivanje u društvu. Proces je zaokružen
ukoliko dođe do difuzije tehnoloških izuma
(Lajović i Vulić, 2010). Proces tehnoloških
inovacija, prema istraživanjima u svijetu u
ovoj oblasti, može trajati 20 do 30 godina,
mada za najveći broj industrijskih proizvoda
inovacije traju, od inicijalne ideje do tržišta,
3 do 8 godina.
veloped interfunctional cycle. The first relates to
the creation, or, according applicable idea. Second on the practical application, and a third on
its dispersal in society. The process is completed
when there is a diffusion of technological inventions (Lajović and Vulic, 2010). The process of
technological innovation, according to research
in the world in this area, it may take 20 to 30
years, although the largest number of industrial product innovation are long, from the initial
idea to the market 3-8 years.
Proces tehnoloških inovacija prema
Robertsu (1999) obuhvata šest „dubinskih“
faza i prikazan je na shemi 1.
The process of technological innovation by Roberts (1999) includes six “in-depth”
phase and is shown in scheme one.
Spotting an opportunity
Formulisanje ideja
Formulating ideas
Rješavanje problema
Troubleshooting
Prototip
Prototype
Komercijalni razvoj
Comercial development
T
Technology use
Shema 1. Proces tehnoloških inovacija
Scheme 1. The process of technological innovations
Može se konstatovati da su tehnološke inovacije proces sa više faza, sa
značajnim varijacijama kako u primarnom
zadatku tako i u pitanjima menadžmenta i
efektivne menadžerske prakse, ostvarene
među tim fazama. U navedenom osnovno
jeste da je svaka od faza aktivnosti „opterećena“ traženjem odgovora na različita
pitanja. Uzevši navedeno u obzir, ključno
pitanje za početnu fazu jeste: Na koji način
podstaći interes za tehnološke inovacije,
koju grupu ljudi i koje strategije primijeniti u pravcu efektivnog prikupljanja ideja
u tom cilju?
It can be concluded that the technological innovation process with several stages, with significant variations in both the primary task, as well as issues management and
effective management practices, achieved
between these stages. Primary in this, primarily, is that each of the phases of activity,
“loaded” to answer the various questions.
Taking this into consideration, the key question for the initial phase is: How to stimulate
interest in technological innovation, which is
a group of people and that the strategy applied in the direction of the effective collection of ideas to that end?
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O. Zupur: ISTRAŽIVAČKO-RAZVOJNA FUNKCIJA KAO OKOSNICA TEHNOLOŠKIH INOVACIJA
Za primjenu strategije (fokusiranje na
tehnologiju) kompanija naglašava osnovna
istraživanja i razvoj novih tehnologija, te primjenu ovih tehnologija u razvoju proizvoda
(Cvetković, 2011). Karakteristika faze „prepoznavanje prilika“ jeste što manje kontrole
sa što vise ideja, razmatranje različitih metoda, podstrekavanje konflikta, te stimuliranje
inputa. U ovoj fazi je bitno ući sa malim finansiranjem istraživačko-razvojne aktivnosti,
bez strogo propisanih pravila i procedura.
To apply the strategy (focusing on technology) company emphasizes fundamental research and development of new technologies, and
the application of these technologies through product development (Cvetkovic, 2011). Characteristic
phases “identify opportunities” is less control with
as many ideas, consideration of various methods,
instigating conflict and stimulating inputs. At this
stage it is important to enter the small funding of
research and development activities, without strictly prescribed rules and procedures.
Nasuprot njoj, u fazi komercijalnog
razvoja, na primjer, zadatak uključuje detaljnu
specifikaciju i transformaciju već redukovanih
ideja u proizvodnju prihvatljivih prototipova.
Fokus u ovoj fazi je usmjeren na stvaranje
novog proizvoda, tehnički jasno definisanog,
spremnog za proizvodnju u velikom obimu, uz prihvatljive konkurentske proizvodne troškove. To uključuje detaljnu tehničku
kontrolu, stroge finansijske kriterijume za
korišćenje resursa, čvrste formalne procedure
vrednovanja, i sl., što je suprotno prvoj fazi.
Bitno je istaći da se inovativni proces ostvaruje putem tehničko-tehnoloških napora, vodeći računa o internom organizacionom kontekstu, ali uključujući snažni uticaj eksternog
kako tehnološkog tako i tržišnog okruženja.
Sve studije efektivnih inovacija ukazuju na
značajan doprinos spoljne tehnologije, kao i
to da je uspjeh predominantno određen usklađenošću proizvoda sa zahtjevima kupaca, kao
i aktivnošću konkurencije. Prema profesoru
Hilu (Hill i Jones, 1998), u procesu izgradnje
efikasne inovativne aktivnosti bitno je: (1) razvijati istraživačke sposobnosti; (2) uspostavljati adekvatne selektivne procese za projekte;
(3) integrisati različite funkcija u preduzeću.
Opposite her, in the stage of commercial development, for example, the task involves
a detailed specification and transformation, but
the idea of reducing the production of acceptable
prototypes. The focus at this stage is focused on
the production of new products, technical clearly defined, ready for production in a large scale,
with acceptable competitive production costs. It
includes detailed technical control, strict financial
criteria for the use of resources, rigorous formal
evaluation procedures, as opposed to the first
stage. It is important to note that the innovative
process is achieved through technical and technological efforts, taking into account the internal
organizational context, but with a strong external
impact, both technological, and market environment. All studies of effective innovations indicate
a significant contribution of foreign technology,
and that success is predominantly determined by
the compliance of the product with the requirements of customers, as well as the activity of the
competition. According to Professor Hil (Hill and
Jones, 1998), in the process of building an effective innovation activities is essential: (1) develop
research skills; (2) establish adequate selective
processes for projects; (3) integrate various functions in company.
RAZVOJ ISTRAŽIVAČKE
SPOSOBNOSTI
RESEARCH ABILITIES
DEVELOPMENT
Razvojna istraživanja obuhvataju aktivnosti usmjerene na pomjeranje granica naučnih saznanja. Ta nova saznanja koja, u krajnjem slučaju, treba da rezultuju inovacijama,
posmatrana sa aspekta konkretnog preduzeća,
odnose se na područje njenih postojećih ili
Development research, as is well
known, include activities aimed at move
boundaries of scientific knowledge. These
new findings, which, in extreme cases should
result in innovation, seen as a key for a company related to the area of its existing or po-
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O. Zupur: RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FUNCTIONS AS THE BACKBONE TECHNOLOGICAL...
potencijalnih interesa. Inovacije se pojavljuju kao generatori promjena, ali u povratnoj
sprezi razvijena društva stvaraju povoljnije
uslove za razvoj inovacija, što promjene čine
sve dramatičnijim (Mirosavljević, 2008).
Otuda je i logična zainteresovanost preduzeća
za istraživanja, koja se mogu ostvarivati samostalno, ili u saradnji sa drugim privrednim
ili naučno - istraživačkim organizacijama.
Opredjeljenje preduzeća da započne i razvija
fundamentalna istraživanja samostalno, ili sa
drugim organizacijama, podrazumijeva, prije
svega, adekvatan organizacioni ambijent koji
pospješuje kreativnost.
tential interest. Innovation is seen as generators of change, but the Feedback developed
societies create favorable conditions for the
development of innovation, which are increasingly dramatic changes (Mirosavljević,
2008). Hence the logical interest of companies for research, which can be exercised
independently or in cooperation with other
economic or scientific research organizations.
Commitment of companies to start and develop basic research independently or with other
organizations, primarily entails adequate organizational environment that promotes creativity.
To podrazumijeva visoku samostalnost
istraživača, koji će raditi na istraživačkim projektima u izdvojenom ambijentu, različitom po radnom vremenu, metodu nagrađivanja, mjerljivosti
rada, modelu kontrole i sl., u odnosu na osnovnu
proizvodnu, odnosno uslužnu djelatnost preduzeća. Istraživanje, u odnosu na primijenjeno istraživanje se karakteriše još i (Šehić, 2002):
This implies a high autonomy of researchers, who will work on research projects
in the sandbox environment, different in-time,
the method of remuneration of measurability,
model control, in relation to primary production and service sector companies. The study,
in relation to the applied research is characterized by more and the next (Sehic, 2002):
1.
istraživačko područje, u pogledu svoje interdisciplinarnosti, je uže u odnosu na preostale faze istraživačko-razvojne djelatnosti;
1.
research area, in terms of its interdisciplinarity, is narrower than in other phases
of research and development activities;
2.
broj istraživača, koji radi na fundamentalnom istraživanju u okviru jednog ili više
povezanih preduzeća je najčešće mali;
2.
number of researchers working on fundamental research within one or more
associated enterprises, is usually small;
3.
kako se nova saznanja (naučna otkrića)
ne mogu planirati, ni normirati, otuda
je ovdje nepotrebna, ili, još preciznije,
štetna, normiranost u bilo kom pogledu
- vrijeme, rezultati i s1.;
3.
how new knowledge (scientific discovery) can not be planned, nor standardized, hence here is unnecessary, or even
harmful accurate, standards in any way
- the weather, the results, and s1.;
4.
u skladu sa prethodnim, nužna je tzv.
“teorijska” naklonost istraživača, odnosno otvoreni intelektualni interes za novim saznanjima itd.
4.
in accordance with the foregoing, it is
necessary so. “theoretical” liking researchers and open intellectual interest
in new ideas, etc.
S obzirom na nabrojane karakteristike
bazičnog istraživanja, proizilazi da istraživačima u ovoj oblasti organičenim konceptom
treba obezbijediti dosta samostalnosti, horizontalne komunikacije, što manje formalizma
u međusobnim odnosima itd. Primijenjena
istraživanja su usmjerena na rješavanje praktičnih problema. Ova istraživanja baziraju se
na rezultatima fundamentalnih istraživanja,
Given those characteristics, basic
research, shows that researchers in this
field limited concept should provide a lot of
independence, horizontal communication,
the less formalism in interpersonal relationships. Applied research focused on solving
practical problems. This research is based
on the results of fundamental research,
which have been reached anywhere, either
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O. Zupur: ISTRAŽIVAČKO-RAZVOJNA FUNKCIJA KAO OKOSNICA TEHNOLOŠKIH INOVACIJA
do kojih se došlo bilo gdje, ili u samom preduzeću, ili na drugom mjestu. Shodno ovome,
primijenjena istraživanja se tretiraju kao druga faza istraživačko-razvojnog ciklusa.
in the company or elsewhere. Consequently, the applied research is treated as the second phase of the research and development
cycle.
Razvojna istraživanja, u skladu sa svojom suštinom, u praksi su često neodvojiva od
primijenjenih istraživanja, te se, kao takva, posmatraju kao jedna cjelina za koju treba naći jedinstveno organizaciono rješenje. Glavna obilježja razvojnog istraživanja su (Šehić, 1990):
Development research, in accordance
with its substance, in practice they are often inseparable from applied research, and, as such,
are viewed as a whole that needs to find a unique
organizational solution. The main features of the
development research (Sehic, 1990):
1.
istraživačko područje, u pogledu svoje interdisciplinarnosti, se siri kako se
istraživačka aktivnost udaljava od fundamentalnog, a približava prelazu u razvojna istraživanja;
1.
research area, in terms of its interdisciplinarity, is spreading to the research
activity away from the fundamental and
the approaching transition to development research;
2.
u skladu sa prethodnim obilježjem, povećava se i broj istraživača;
2.
in accordance with the preceding element,
increasing the number of researchers;
3.
povezanost među istraživačima i konkretnim zadacima putem operativnih linija je daleko preciznija i intenzivnija u
odnosu na bazična istraživanja, te se kao
posljedica toga sužavaju granice samostalnosti istraživača;
3.
relationship between researchers and the
specific tasks by the operating line is far
more precise and intense compared to
basic research, and as a consequence the
narrow limits of the independence of researchers;
4.
kako istraživačka djelatnost prelazi u
vise faze istraživačko-razvojnog ciklusa, raste i mogućnost kontrole, odnosno
mjerljivosti rezultata rada, preciznije su
vremenske obaveze i s1.
4.
to research activity becomes more phases
of research and development cycles, and
increasing the ability to control and measurability of results, precisely the time
commitments.
Međufunkcionalna integracija istraživanja i razvoja, kao i proizvodnje i marketinga, izuzetno je značajna, a njome se ostvaruje
(Hill and Jones, 2000): (1) razvoj projekta-proizvoda čije karakteristike su usklađene sa potrebama kupaca; (2) dizajn novih proizvoda,
kojim se pojednostavljuje njihova proizvodnja;
(3) kontrola troškova razvoja; (4) minimalno
vrijeme pojavljivanja na tržištu.
Cross functional integration of research and development as well as production
and marketing, it is extremely important, and
it is achieved (Hill and Jones, 2000): (1) development project-products whose characteristics are consistent with the needs of customers; (2) design new products to simplify their
production; (3) control development costs;
(4) minimum time appearing on the market.
ISTRAŽIVAČKO-RAZVOJNA
FUNKCIJA I MARKETING
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
FUNCTION AND MARKETING
Istraživačko-razvojni napori, kao i
sami tehničko-tehnološki rezultati tih napora,
bez njihove tržišne verifikacije, nisu garancija
uspješnosti inovativne aktivnosti u preduzeću.
Elementaran izraz uspješnosti ove funkcije
Research and development efforts, as
well as your own technical and technological
results of these efforts, no verification of their
market are not a guarantee of success of innovative activities in the company. Elemental
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O. Zupur: RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FUNCTIONS AS THE BACKBONE TECHNOLOGICAL...
jeste tržišna provjera njenih rezultata - novih
ili poboljšanih postojećih proizvoda, odnosno
tehnoloških rješenja. Činjenica je da kompanije pokreće profit, odnosno postizanje profitabilnosti, ali je kompanijama potreban imidž
da bi bile uspješne. U tom smislu vještina
marketinga podrazumijeva „zavođenje“ ljudi
i uticaj na njih sa ciljem da kupe proizvode
ili usluge. Sama tehnologija nije više garant
uspjeha i pobjede (Olins, 2008). Nijedan laboratorijski posao ne može biti opravdan bez
visoke vjerovatnoće za komercijalni uspjeh.
Istraživačko-razvojni napori imaju svog smisla samo ako rezultate tih napora tržište prihvata. Otuda već u samoj fazi razmišljanja o
novim tehnološkim rješenjima ili proizvodima, odnosno poboljšanjima postojećih, treba
polaziti od zahtjeva i potreba onih kojima je
to i namijenjeno. Povezanost istraživačko-razvojne aktivnosti i marketinga je upravo u toj
funkciji.
term performance of this function is to market its test results - new or improved existing
products and technology solutions. The fact
is that the company runs a profit or achieve
profitability, but companies need the image
in order to be successful. In this sense, marketing skills means “seduction” of people and
influence them in order to purchase products
or services. The technology itself is no longer a guarantee of success and victory (Olins,
2008). No laboratory work can not be justified without a high probability of commercial
success. Research and development efforts
have their sense only if the results of this effort, the market acceptance. Thus already in
the stage of thinking about new technological solutions or products, or improve existing,
should be based on the demands and needs
those for whom it is intended. Connection
between research and development activities
and marketing is just such a function.
Marketing obuhvata: planiranje, koordinaciju i kontrolu svih aktivnosti preduzeća, usmjerenih na aktuelno i potencijalno
tržište, u cilju dugoročnog zadovoljavanja
potreba i zahtjeva kupaca. Razvoj i uvođenje novih konvergentnih tehnologija treba
da potakne razvoj novog marketinga koji
može efikasno povezati ponudu i tražnju
visokokvalitetnih usluga (Hatunić, 2007).
Istraživačko-razvojna aktivnost, posmatrana
u tom kontekstu, nema neke posebne, izdvojene ciljeve, te kao takva mora biti integrisana sa ostalim funkcijama u preduzeću. U suprotnom, ona će se razvijati daleko od uticaja
tržišta i postavljati sebi sopstvene ciljeve u
smjeru “idealne tehnologije”. Otuda, već u
samoj fazi formiranja strategije istraživanja
i razvoja, treba uvažavati ovu činjenicu (Šehić, 1990). Neposredna i čvrsta povezanost
između marketinga i istraživačko-razvojne
funkcije treba da omogući frekventnu međusobnu komunikaciju.
Marketing includes, as is well known,
planning, coordination and control of all activities of the company, focused on the current
and potential market, in order to meet longterm needs and requirements of customers.
The development and introduction of new convergent technologies should encourage the development of new marketing that can efficiently connect supply and demand of high-quality
services (Hatunic, 2007). Research and development activities, considered in this context,
there is a special, separate goals, and as such
must be integrated with other functions in
the company. Otherwise, it will evolve away
from the influence of the market and set themselves their own goals in the “ideal technology.” Hence, already at the stage of forming the
strategy of research and development, should
respect this fact (Sehic, 1990). Immediate and
consistent relationship between marketing and
R&D functions should allow frequent interpersonal communication.
Koordinacija između istraživača i kadrova u marketingu potrebna je već od formiranja ideja o inovativnom rješenju, kao invenciji, pa sve do njihove komercijalizacije,
kao inovacije. Nezavisno od mjesta nastan-
Coordination between researchers
and staff in marketing is needed, but at the
time of the formation of ideas about innovative solutions, such invention, to the
commercialization of such innovations. Ir29
O. Zupur: ISTRAŽIVAČKO-RAZVOJNA FUNKCIJA KAO OKOSNICA TEHNOLOŠKIH INOVACIJA
ka inovativne ideje, sve one treba da prođu
provjeru njihove tržišne vrijednosti. Tek pozitivno vrednovane ideje, koje će putem inovacionih rješenja doživjeti prvo komercijalni,
a potom i ekonomski uspjeh, stavljaju se u
inovacioni proces. Potreba provjere tržišne
valjanosti inovacije je isto tako potrebna i u
kasnijim fazama inovacionog ciklusa. Poznata opasnost da istraživači u preduzeću, u
uslovima nužne samostalnosti u svom radu,
istraživačke ciljeve stave iznad i izvan ciljeva
preduzeća, u postignutoj tijesnoj povezanosti
istraživačko-razvojne funkcije i marketinga,
se smanjuje. Ovo se postiže direktnom horizontalnom, međufunkcijskom povezanošću,
putem formiranja zajedničkih istraživačkih
timova, prostornim razmještanjem, kojim se
omogućava neposredna veza, zatim neformalnim kontaktima, slobodnim razgovorima,
druženjima i sl.
respective of the place of origin of innovative ideas, they all have to go through the
verification of their market value. Only positively evaluated ideas that will through innovation solutions to experience first commercial, then economic success, are placed
in innovation process. Checking the validity
of market needs innovation is also needed
in the later stages of the innovation cycle.
Known risk, the researchers in the company, in terms of the necessary autonomy in
their work, research goals put above and beyond the goals of the company, achieved in
close association research and development
and marketing functions, is reduced. This is
achieved by direct horizontal, cross-functional connections, through the formation
of joint research teams, deploying space,
which allows direct connection, then informal contacts, free to socialize.
ISTRAŽIVAČKO-RAZVOJNA
FUNKCIJA I PROIZVODNJA
RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT
AND PRODUCTION FUNCTIONS
Proizvodnja je glavni korisnik istraživačkih i razvojnih dostignuća. Naučna istraživanja mogu se sprovoditi i u proizvodnji,
odnosno institutima ili nekim drugim organizacionim oblicima, koji su u sistemu proizvodnih kompanija (Žugaj, Šehanović i Cingula,
2004). Inovacioni ciklus, pored istraživanja i
razvoja, kao i marketinga, obuhvata još i proizvodnju, kao tipične i nužne dijelove inovacionog procesa. Marketing i proizvodnja jesu
neraskidive karike inovacionog ciklusa, koje
svojom organizovanošću i kapacitetom uspostavljaju kvalitet i propusnu moć cjelokupne
inovacione djelatnosti. To praktično znači
da, recimo, neefikasnost proizvodnog sektora najneposrednije uslovljava u istoj mjeri i
neefikasnost istraživačko razvojne aktivnosti, odnosno inovativne djelatnosti u cjelini.
Ako novi proizvod nije dizajniran u skladu sa
proizvodnim mogućnostima sa kojima raspolaže kompanija, ponekad se sama dogradnja
tehnoloških mogućnosti može pokazati tako
teškom da je potrebno proizvod redizajnirati.
Shodno iznesenom, sasvim je jasna potreba
Manufacturing is the main beneficiary
of research and development achievements.
Scientific research can be carried out in the
production or institutes or other organizational
forms, which are in the system of production
companies (Zugaj, Sehanović and Cingula,
2004). Innovation cycle, in addition to research
and development, and marketing and includes
more production as typical and necessary parts
of the innovation process. Marketing and production are links innovation chain, to the organization and that its capacity significantly determine the quality and throughput of the overall
innovation activity. This means that, say, the
inefficiency of the manufacturing sector most
directly conditioned to the same extent and inefficiency of R&D activities and innovative activities as a whole. If a new product is designed
in accordance with the manufacturing capabilities possessed by the company, sometimes
alone upgrade technological capabilities may
prove so difficult that it is necessary to redesign
the product. Accordingly, the undersigned, it is
a clear need for connectedness research and de-
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O. Zupur: RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FUNCTIONS AS THE BACKBONE TECHNOLOGICAL...
za povezanošću istraživačko razvojne funkcije i proizvodnje već u fazi prikupljanja ideja
za inovacije, a, naročito, onih koji se odnose na tehnološke postupke. Naime, sistematično prikupljanje prijedloga za nova, ili za
poboljšanja postojećih tehnoloških rješenja,
podrazumijeva uključivanje svih radnika,
u prvom redu onih koji, u skladu sa svojim
svakodnevnim poslovima, poznaju probleme
i potrebe proizvodnje. Prirodno je da se to odnosi na sve radnike u proizvodnji, a pogotovo
na one najstručnije, koji imaju najviše znanja
i sposobnosti za inventivni i inovacioni rad.
Na ovaj način se stvaraju uslovi za široku inventivnu aktivnost (Šehić, 1990). Sve prikupljene ideje, nezavisno odakle dolaze, treba
vrednovati, pored tržišnog, i sa aspekta tehničko-tehnološke izvodljivosti, raspoloživosti
tehničkim i kadrovskim potencijalom, zatim
sa stanovišta troškova i vremena njihove transformacije u inovaciju. Samo ideje koje su zadovoljile oba stanovišta - tržišni i tehnološki,
mogu se naći u inovacionom procesu. Otuda u
cjelokupnom inovacionom lancu, počevši od
njegovih prvih faza–prikupljanja i ocjene ideja, preko prevođenja invencije u inovaciju, pa
sve do kasnije redovne proizvodnje, potrebno
je da bude uključen jedan dio istraživačkog
tima. Isprekidanost inovacionog lanca, česti
prekidi u toku probnih ispitivanja, kao i zastoji u toku redovne proizvodnje, su najčešće
posljedica nepostojanja barem jednog dijela
istraživačkog tima u svim fazama inovacione
djelatnosti. Bez obzira koju formu organizacione strukture kompanija ima, nagomilavanje
različitih problema, nastojanje da se udovolji
zahtjevima tržišta i stalne promjene zahtjeva
okruženja, nameću potrebu za brzom, kompetentnom reakcijom organizacije, na bazi interdisciplinarnih znanja, a to se može obezbjediti samo timskim radom (Suša, 2009). Zadatak
ovog stalnog dijela istraživačkog tima jeste
da prati složen proces transformacije invencije u inovaciju i da usputno otklanja probleme. Pri svemu ovome, pored ostalog, bitno
je istraživačko iskustvo, koje naročito dolazi
do izražaja u kasnijim fazama inovacionog
procesa. Istraživački timovi u proizvodnom
velopment functions of production, but in the
process of collecting ideas for innovation, especially those relating to technological processes.
Specifically, the systematic collection of proposals for new or improving existing technology solutions, implies the inclusion of all workers, primarily those who, according to their
daily needs, know the problems and needs of
production. Naturally, this applies to all workers in manufacturing, especially to those most
competent, who have the most knowledge and
ability for innovation and inventive work. In
this way, creating conditions for a broad inventive activity (Sehic, 1990). All collected ideas,
regardless where they come from, should be
evaluated, in addition to the market, and in
terms of technical and technological feasibility,
availability of technical and human potential,
then in terms of cost and time of their transformation into innovation. Only ideas that meet
both point - the market and technology, can
be found in the innovation process. Hence the
overall and innovation chain, starting from its
first phase-collection and evaluation of ideas,
through translating invention into innovation,
to the later regular production, it is necessary
to be on one part of the research team. Abruptness innovation chain, frequent interruptions
during the test trials, as well as delays in the
course of regular production, are usually the
result of the absence of at least one part of the
research team through all stages of the innovation activities. No matter what form the organizational structure of the organization has,
accumulation of different problems, the effort
to meet market demands and constant changes in demand environment, impose the need
for fast, competent response organizations, on
the basis of interdisciplinary knowledge, and
this can be provided only through teamwork
(Susa, 2009). The task of the permanent part
of the research team is to follow the complex
process of transforming inventions into innovation and casually eliminates problems. In all
of this, among other things, it is important to
research and experience, which is particularly evident in the later stages of the innovation
process. Research teams in the manufacturing
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O. Zupur: ISTRAŽIVAČKO-RAZVOJNA FUNKCIJA KAO OKOSNICA TEHNOLOŠKIH INOVACIJA
sektoru pokazali su najviši stepen efikasnosti
kada su bili sastavljeni od kadrova sa određenim istraživačkim iskustvom. Na kraju, kada
je riječ o inovativnosti, kao trećem bloku u
izgradnji konkurentske prednosti preduzeća,
može se konstatovati da se razlikuju uloge
pojedinih funkcija u postizanju uspješne inovativne aktivnosti.
sector showed the highest degree of efficiency
when they were composed of personnel with
specific research experience. Finally, when it
comes to innovation, as the third block in the
construction of competitive advantage, it can
be concluded that the different roles of different functions to achieve successful innovative
activities.
ZAKLJUČAK
CONCLUSION
Sve veća borba na tržištu i ukrupnjavanje kapitala u savremenom poslovanju
nameću svakoj kompaniji imperativ pravilnog postavljanja razvojne politike. Kreiranje
razvojne politike kompanije jeste vrlo važna
i složena aktivnost, te cilj kojem kompanije
poklanjaju punu pažnju, Savremeno orijentisana kompanija mora pratiti sve promjene na
tržištu, a najviše u pogledu razvoja tehnoloških dostignuća da bi se mogla prilagođavati
tržišnim i tehnološkim zahtjevima i novinama. Funkcija istraživanja i razvoja u kompaniji je jezgro i „mozak“ kompanije. Izlazni
rezultati u okviru ove funkcije moraju biti
osnova za sagledavanje i analizu ciljeva kompanije, usavršavanje tehnologije kompanije
i predstavljanje novih rješenja i programa, a
u skladu sa savremenim dostignućima. Od
vrste, veličine i moći kompanije zavisi i organizacija navedene funkcije, te je u okviru
nje potrebno zaposliti najkvalitetniju radnu
snagu i najsavremeniju opremu i tehnologiju
jer to mora biti najkreativniji dio kompanije.
Većina kompanija u okviru ove funkcije organizuje razvojno-istraživačke poslove vezane za istraživanje tržišta, marketing, nove
organizacione metode. Uspješnost, efikasnost
i inovativnost istraživačko-razvojne funkcije
kompanije garant je dugoročnosti, opstanka i
odgovarajuće tržišne pozicije kompanije. Rezultat ove funkcije jesu tehnološke inovacije
koje itekako mogu uticati na izgradnju konkurentnosti kompanije, međutim upravljanje
inovativnom aktivnošću je vrlo kompleksno.
I izgradnja efikasne inovativnosti mora da
se temelji na bazičnim i aplikativnim istraživanjima, adekvatnim procesima za selekciju
Increasing struggle to market and enlargement of capital in modern business impose
any company imperative proper positioning of
the development policy. Creating a development policy of the company is very important and complex task, and the goal to which
companies devote full attention, Contemporary oriented company must keep track of all
the changes in the market, especially in terms
of the development of technological advances
that could adapt to the market and technological requirements and innovations. Research
and development functions of the company’s
core and the “brain” of the company. Outputs
within this function must be the basis for understanding and analyzing the company’s goals,
development of technology companies and
introduce new solutions and programs, in line
with modern developments. The type, size and
power companies and organizations depend on
these functions, and within it is necessary to
employ the highest quality workforce and state
of the art equipment and technology, because it
has to be the most creative part of the company. Most companies within this function organized development - research activities related
to market research, marketing, new organizational methods. The effectiveness, efficiency
and innovation research - development tool
companies guarantee a long life, survival and
proper market position the company. The result
of this function are technological innovations
that can certainly affect the competitiveness
of the construction company, but the management of innovative activity is very complex. I
build an effective innovation must be based on
basic and applied research, adequate processes
32
O. Zupur: RESEARCH AND DEVELOPMENT FUNCTIONS AS THE BACKBONE TECHNOLOGICAL...
projekata, uspostavljanje visoke integracije
među različitim funkcijama u kompaniji. Od
izuzetnog značaja je usredsrijediti se na vezu
istraživačko-razvojne djelatnosti sa drugim
funkcijama u kompaniji, a, prije svega, sa
marketingom i proizvodnjom koje predstavljaju nedjeljive karike inovacionog lanca. Dobrom organizacijom i kapacitetom navedena
simbioza bitno određuju kvalitet i moć cjelokupne inovativne aktivnosti, te, kao takva,
daje kompaniji konkurentsku prednost na
način koji je različit od načina konkurenata.
for the selection of projects, the establishment
of high integration between different functions in the company. Of great importance is
usredsrijediti to link research and development
activities with other functions in the company,
primarily with marketing and manufacturing,
which are indivisible links innovation chain.
Good organization and capacity listed symbiosis significantly determine the quality and
power of all innovative activities, and as such
gives the company a competitive advantage in
a way that is different from its competitors.
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Šehić, Dž. (2002). Strateški menadžment.
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Sarajevu.
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preduzeca u funkciji osvajanja
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Savremena administracija.
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(2004). Organizacija. Varaždin: Tiva
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(2004). Organisation: Varaždin: Tiva
- Tiskara.
34
TEORIJSKA EKONOMIJA - THEORETICAL ECONOMICS
GRANICE FENOMENA GLOBALIZACIJE
THE LIMITS OF THE PHENOMENON OF GLOBALIZATION
Prof. dr Miladin Jovičić*; Dejan Gračanin, dipl. ek.
*Univerzitet u Istočnom Sarajevu, Fakultet poslovne ekonomije Bijeljina
University of East Sarajevo, Faculty of Business and Economics Bijeljina
Pregledni članak
doi 10.7251/OIK1301002J, UDK 316.32:338.124.4
Review paper
REZIME
SUMMARY
Cilj autora ovog rada jeste da dâ
kritički pogled na fenomen globalizacije,
tačnije, osvrt na njegove granice i prepreke koje nije uspio zaobići ni savladati.
Obično se on koristi kao uzrok svih pojava današnjice kako ekonomskih tako i
brojnih drugih, pa će utoliko ovaj sadržaj
biti interesantniji, jer ćemo vidjeti i jednu
drugu stranu u kojoj ovaj fenomen ne vodi
glavnu riječ, a što na direktan način utiče
na polje ekonomije.
The objective of the author of this paper
is to provide a critical overview on globalization as a phenomenon, or to be more precise,
to review its limits and obstacles that it has not
achieved to bypass nor overcome. Usually, it
is referred as the cause for all the modern day
phenomena, of economic kind as well as of
many other kinds, which will inasmuch make
this paper more interesting because we are
going to see also the other side in which this
phenomenon is not taking the main word and
which directly influences the field of economy.
Ključne riječi: globalizacija, fenomen, proces,
faktori.
Keywords: globalization, phenomenon, process, factors.
UVOD
INTRODUCTION
Gotovo da ne postoji oblast ljudskog djelovanja u kojoj se kao osnovni
uzrok promjena ne navodi fenomen globalizacije. Utoliko je definisanje ovog procesa potrebnije i neophodnije, jer ćemo upravo kroz taj dio, i kroz dio koji se odnosi na
analizu faktora koji stoje kao prepreke na
putu ovog procesa vidjeti njegovu stvarnu snagu, jačinu i moć. Da li globalizacija
ruši sve pred sobom? Koje su to granice
ovog procesa, i da li on uopšte ima granice? Da li je moguće oko sedam milijardi
stanovnika na sedam kontinenata staviti u
jedan obrazac ponašanja i djelovanja? Pitanja su brojna, odgovori različiti, često
potpuno suprotni. Zato je bavljenje ovim
pitanjem vrlo izazovno i podrazumijeva
multidisciplinarnost, tačnije, poznavanje
There is almost no sphere of human
activity in which the phenomenon of globalization is not mentioned as a main cause of change.
Making definition of this process is inasmuch
more needed and necessary because we will exactly through this part and the one related to the
analysis of the factors that stand as obstacles on
the way of this process, realize its true strength,
might and power. Is globalization demolishing everything ahead of itself? Where are the
boundaries of this process and does it have them
at all? Is it possible to fit seven billion inhabitants from seven continents into a single pattern
of behaving and operating? The questions are
numerous, the answers different, often completely opposite. Therefore, dealing with this
issue is very challenging and requires multidisciplinary approach, more precisely, it requires
35
M. Jovičić, D. Gračanin: GRANICE FENOMENA GLOBALIZACIJE
brojnih oblasti gdje će se sinhronizovanjem i konvergacijom saznanja doći do
adekvatnih odgovora.
the knowledge of numerous fields in which we
will through synchronization and convergence
of knowledge reach adequate answers.
Izlaganje se sastoji iz dva dijela. Prvi
dio govori o razvoju ovog fenomena kroz
istoriju i njegovom evolutivnom putu, nakon čega se osvrćemo na definiciju i ključne
oblasti koje su njime zahvaćene. U okviru
teorijskih koncepata vidjećemo da postoje
potpuno oprečna mišljenja o ovoj temi. Drugi dio je namijenjen kritičkom osvrtu, tačnije,
faktorima koji govore u prilog činjenici da i
ovaj proces ima svoje granice koje su često
zanemarene i stavljene u drugi plan. U vidu
tri stuba na kojima počiva ljudska stvarnost, i
to prirodnom, društvenom i kulturnom predstavljene su najveće prepreke koje ovaj proces nije uspio prevazići.
The presentation consists of two parts.
The first part is about the historical development of this phenomenon and its evolutionary way after which we turn to the definition
and key fields comprehended by it. We will
see that the conflicting opinions related to
this subject coexist within theoretical concepts. The second part is designed for the
critical review, for the factors that speak for
the fact that even this process has its limitations which are very often ignored and given less attention. The greatest obstacles that
this process has not managed to overcome
are presented as three pillars that the human
reality rests on - natural, social and cultural.
ŠTA JE TO GLOBALIZACIJA?
WHAT IS GLOBALISATION?
Istorija fenomena globalizacije
History of phenomenon of globalization
Globalizacija kao fenomen koji je
dominantan i koji je nastao u decenijama koje su za nama ima svoj evolutivni
i razvojni put. Činjenica da sve ima svoju istoriju, nameće potrebu da prije definisanja samog fenomena globalizacije
kažemo nešto više i o procesu njegovog
nastanka. Završetkom Drugog svjetskog
rata stvara se bipolarni model svjetske
privrede u kojem sa jedne strane imamo
kapitalistički model i liberalno tržište,
a sa druge strane komunistički (socijalistički) model sa centralno-planskom
privredom. U toj utakmici kapitalistički
sistem pobjeđuje, što je potvrđeno raspadom centralno-planskih privreda sa
kraja osamdesetih i početka devedesetih godina. Upravo u tim godinama dolazi do stvaranja formalno jedinstvenih
(unificiranih) pravila koja označavaju
početak procesa globalizacije. Dakle,
on počiva na liberalnom tržištu, slobodi kretanja ljudi, roba, usluga i kapitala,
privatnoj svojini i demokratskim sistemima.
Globalization as a dominant phenomenon which was created in decades
that are behind us has its own evolutionary
and developmental path. The fact that everything has its own history, imposes on us
a need that before we define the phenomenon of globalization itself, we say something about the process of its creation.
With the end of the World War ll the bipolar model of world economy occurs within
which on one side we have capitalist model and liberal market and on the other there
is a communist (socialist) model with
centrally planned economy. The capitalist
system has won in this game which is confirmed with the collapse of the centrally
planned economies in the late eighties and
early nineties. Exactly in those years, the
formally unique (unified) rules were created which altogether mark the beginning
of the process of globalization. Therefore,
it rests on the liberal market, freedom of
movement of people, goods, services and
capital, private ownership and democratic
systems.
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M. Jovičić, D. Gračanin: THE LIMITS OF THE PHENOMENON OF GLOBALIZATION
Definicija globalizacije
Definition of globalization
Jedan od kreatora termina globalizacije jeste američki ekonomista i profesor sa
Harvarda Teodor Levit. Veoma je značajan
njegov rad na popularizaciji ovog termina, a
prvu njegovu definiciju dao je u članku objavljenom 1983. godine o temi „Globalizacija tržišta“. Levit (1983) globalizaciju definiše kao
posljedicu transferbilnosti tehnologije, a naročito informacija, tj. njihove proletarizacije.
Bitno je istaći da danas ne postoji jedinstvena
definicija ovog fenomena. Mnoge od tih definicija razlikuju se u formalnom smislu, ali
sadržaj i suština ipak ostaju približni. Ovaj set
promjena odnosi se na tri osnovne kategorije,
ekonomsku, političku i kulturnu.
One of the creators of the term globalization is American economist and Harvard professor Theodore Levitt. His work on popularization
of this term is of great importance while its first
definition he gave in the article published in 1983
about the subject matter entitled “Globalization
of Markets”. Levitt (1983). defines globalization
as the consequence of the transferability of technology, especially of information and their proletarianization. It is important to emphasize that
there is not a unique definition of this phenomenon. Many of those definitions formally differ but
the content and the essence remain approximate.
This set of changes refers to three main categories: economic, political and cultural.
Ekonomska globalizacija ogleda se
u stvaranju jedinstvenog svjetskog tržišta.
Žargonski rečeno, stvaranje globalnog sela u
kojem je sve dostupno svima, i to po jednakim pravilima, najbolje opisuje činjeničnu
situaciju. Protivnici ovog procesa, sa druge
strane, tvrde da su ta pravila nametnuta od
moćnih multinacionalnih kompanija kako
bi postojećim kapitalom onemogućile rađanje konkurenata a, samim tim, i podjelu
tržišta. Brojne međunarodne ekonomske, a
prije svega finansijske organizacije pospješile su ovaj proces. Navodimo neke od njih:
(1) Svjetska trgovinska organizacija - WTO,
(2) Organizacija za ekonomsku saradnju i
razvoj - OECD, (3) Međunarodni monetarni
fond - MMF (IMF), (4) Međunarodna banka
za obnovu i razvoj - IBDR, (5) Međunarodno
udruženje za razvoj - IDA, (6) Međunarodna
finansijska korporacija - IFC, (7) Multilateralna agencija za garantovanje investicija
- MIGA, (8) Regionalne banke za razvoj Interamerička banka - IADB, Afrička banka
- AfDB i Azijska banka - AsDB, (9) Banka za
međunarodne obračune - BIS, (10) Međunarodna banka za ekonomsku saradnju - MBES,
(11) Međunarodna investiciona banka MIB, (12) Afrička finansijska zajednica
- CFA, (13) Evropska investiciona banka EIB, (14) Evropska banka za obnovu i razvoj - EBRD.
The economic globalization is reflected
in the creation of a single world market. Simply
speaking, the creation of the global village in
which everything is accessible by the same rules
to everybody describes the factual situation in
the best way. On the other hand, the opponents
to this process claim that those rules were imposed by the powerful multinational companies so that they could prevent the occurrence
of the competition and hence, the division of
the market. Numerous international economic
and above all financial organizations improved
this process. Here is the list of some of them:
(1) World Trade Organization - WTO, (2) Organization for Economic Co-operation and
Development - OECD, (3) International Monetary Fund - IMF, (4) International Bank for
Reconstruction and Developmennt - IBRD, (5)
International Development Association - IDA,
(6) International Financial Corporation - IFC,
(7) Multilateral Investment Guarantee Agency MIGA, (8) Regional development banks - Inter
- American Development Bank - IADB, African
Development Bank - AfDB and Asian Development Bank - AsDB, (9) Bank for International
Settlements - BIS, (10) International Bank for
Economic Cooperation - MBES, (11) International Investment Bank - MIB, (12) Communaute financiere africane - CFA, (13) Europen
Investment Bank - EIB, (14) Europen Bank for
Reconstruction and Development - EBRD.
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M. Jovičić, D. Gračanin: GRANICE FENOMENA GLOBALIZACIJE
Politička globalizacija je usko povezana sa ekonomskom globalizacijom. Prisutan je trend sve manjih mogućnosti država
da samostalno odlučuju o bitnim pitanjima.
Brojne nadnacionalne (naddržavne) organizacije govore u prilog tome. Najbolje to možemo vidjeti na vlastitom primjeru. Evropska
unija kao najveća svjetska integracija kreira
pravila koja se moraju poštovati. Sve države, a naročito one manje i potpuno zavisne,
su faktički nemoćne da o bilo čemu odlučuju samostalno i u okviru svojih granica. I
političku globalizaciju su pospješile brojne
organizacije nadnacionalnog karaktera, i to:
(1) Organizacija ujedinjenih nacija - OUN,
(2) Sjeverno-atlanski sporazumni savez NATO pakt (North Atlantic Treaty Organisation), (3) brojne regionalne organizacije
od kojih je najvažnija Evropska unija, kao i
mnoge druge.
The political globalization is tightly connected to the economic globalization.
There is a trend of reduced possibilities for
states to decide on important matters on their
own. Numeroustransnational organizations
speak in favor to this. It is best to showcase
it through our own example. The European
Union as the largest world integration creates rules that have to be obeyed. All countries, especially those smaller and absolutely
dependent ones, are factually powerless to
decide independently on anything and within their borders. Also, the political globalization was improved by the number of transnational organizations, such as: (1) United
Nations - UN, (2) North Atlantic Treaty Organisation - NATO, (3) Numerous regional
organizations among which the European
Union is the most important one, as well as
many others.
Kulturna globalizacija ogleda se u
tome što se usljed kreiranja jedinstvenih pravila na ekonomskom i političkom planu pretpostavlja i ujednačavanje kulturnih obrazaca.
Međutim, ovo je vrlo osjetljivo pitanje koje
ćemo posebno obraditi u dijelu koji se odnosi
na fakotre koji stoje na putu procesa globalizacije. Mnogi ovaj proces smatraju pokušajem amerikanizacije, evropeizacije ili, jednostavno, vesternizacije.
The cultural globalization is reflected
in a fact that it is assumed that parallel to the
unique rules being created for the economic and
political spheres, the cultural patterns would
also be harmonized. However, this is a very sensitive issue that we will in particular treat in the
part that refers to the factors standing on the way
to globalization. It is considered by many that
this process is an attempt of Americanization,
Europeanization, or simply, westernization.
Na kraju ovog dijela neophodno je
parafrazirati da je globalizacija proces dinamičnih, tj. neopisivo brzih promjena na
svim poljima ljudskog djelovanja, a tome su
najviše doprinijele nove tehnologije i informacije koje struje brzinom svjetlosti tokom
cijela 24 časa.
At the end of this part it is necessary
to paraphrase that globalization is a process
of dynamic, so to speak, indescribably quick
changes that take place in all fields of human
actions which is mostly contributed by the
new technologies and information that travel
day and night with the speed of light.
Teorijski koncepti procesa
globalizacije
Theoretical concepts
of the globalization process
Kada su u pitanju teorijski koncepti, uočljivo je da su oni dijametralno suprotni, preciznije, postoje hiperglobalisti,
tj. zagovornici ovog procesa koji samo u
njemu vide budućnost, dok, sa druge strane, postoje radikalni protivnici koji ovaj
In terms of the theoretical concepts, it is
obvious that they are diametrically opposite, or
to be more precise, there are hyper globalists or
advocates of this process that is the only process
they see the future in, while on the other side,
there are radical opponents who see this process
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M. Jovičić, D. Gračanin: THE LIMITS OF THE PHENOMENON OF GLOBALIZATION
proces smatraju prevarom i obmanom nametnutom od strane moćnih krugova. Slična situacija je i u pitanju nastanka ovog fenomena, gdje sa jedne strane imamo one
koji dijele mišljenje da se radi o spontanom procesu, dok sa druge imamo stavove da se radi o projektu koji je nametnut.
Dakle, mišljenja su oprečna i podijeljena.
Pitanja na koje je potrebno dati odgovor
glasila bi: Da li je globalizacija pozitivan
ili negativan fenomen, tj. da li je globalizacija spontan proces ili isplaniran projekat?
Odgovoriti ne možemo sa DA ili NE! To
je i kreiran, ali, velikim dijelom, i spontan
proces, koji ima svoje pozitivne, ali, sa
druge strane, i negativne efekte. Ono oko
čega se svi slažu jesu dinamika i brzina
promjena, kao i činjenica da niko nije potpuno imun na ove promjene. Digitalizacija
i dostupnost informacija, društvene mreže
i praktično nepostojanje neupućenih jesu
fakti koji govore u prilog tome.
as a fraud and deception imposed by the powerful circles. The situation is similar when it comes
to the emergence of this phenomenon because
on one side we have those who hold the opinion
that the process in question is spontaneous, while
on the other side we face the attitudes that it is
an imposed project. Therefore, the opinions are
contradicted and divided. The questions that need
to be answered would be: Is globalization positive or negative phenomenon, that is, whether the
globalization is a spontaneous or planned project.
We cannot provide answers simply by saying
YES or NO! It is a designed process but it is also
largely spontaneous which means that it has its
positive, but also on the other side, its negative
effects. The things that everybody agrees on are
the dynamics and the speed of changes as well
as the fact that nobody is completely immune to
these changes. Digitalization and the accessibility of information, social networks and virtually
nonexistence of the uninformed are the facts that
speak in favor of this assertion.
FAKTORI KOJI OGRANIČAVAJU
PROCES GLOBALIZACIJE
FACTORS LIMITING THE PROCESS
OF GLOBALIZATION
Prvim dijelom izlaganja željeli smo
da u kratkim crtama opišemo proces globalizacije kroz istoriju, da dotaknemo oblasti
u kojima su promjene bile najdominantnije
i najupečatljivije, kao i da prikažemo različite stavove u vezi sa ovim promjenama. To
je bio dio sadržaja koji je zastupljen u brojnim radovima, međutim, drugi dio, koji će
biti predstavljen u nastavku, crpi ključno
pitanje koje se odnosi na temu ovog rada.
Kritički osvrt na poglede koji sve procese
stavljaju pod zvono globalizacije, i samo
u njoj vide nepremostivu prepreku, jeste
osnovna razlika u pristupu. Vođeni maksimom da svi ovozemaljski procesi imaju
početak i kraj, nameće nam se kao nužan
zaključak da i globalizacija ima svoje granice. Upravo u nastavku želimo ukazati
na neke od tih granica, koje, bez obzira na
jačinu i moć fenomena globalizacije, stoje
kao tri nepomična stuba, a to su prirodni
svijet, društveni život i kulturno bivstvo-
In the first part of this paper, our objective was to describe briefly the process of globalization through history, to refer to the fields
in which the changes were the most dominant
and impressive, as well as to present different
attitudes related to these changes. It is a part of
the content that is presented through the topics
of many writings, however, while the second
part that is going to be presented from now on,
derives from the key question that paper addresses. The critical review on opinions that put
all the processes under the umbrella of globalization and only in it they see the unbridgeable
impediment, is the main difference in approach.
Guided by the maxima that all the earthly processes have their beginning and end, the conclusion that even globalization has its limits imposes itself on us. In the follow-up, we intend
to designate some of these limitations which,
regardless of the strength and powers of the globalization phenomenon, stand as three unmovable pillars and they are: natural world, social
39
M. Jovičić, D. Gračanin: GRANICE FENOMENA GLOBALIZACIJE
vanje. Šarolikost održava ovaj svijet i čini
ga interesantnim, tako da bilo koji pokušaj potpune unifikacije ima svoje granice
koje su mnogo ispod tri prethodno nabrojana stuba na kojima počiva stvarnost. Ovo
nisu strogo ekonomska pitanja, ali, imajući
u vidu da stoje na putu kako drugih tako i
ekonomskih promjena, nužno ih je poznavati i razumijevati.
life and cultural existence. Diversity maintains
this world and makes it interesting so that any
attempt of absolute unification would have its
limits much beyond the three aforementioned
pillars the reality rests on. These are not strictly
economic matters but having in mind that they
stand in the way of economic changes as well
as of others, it is essential to get to know them
and apprehend them.
Prirodno okruženje kao prepreka
procesa globalizacije
Natural environment as the obstacle
to the process of globalization
Pod pretpostavkom da globalizacija
predstavlja stvaranje jedinstvenih obrazaca
ponašanja usljed poroznosti tehnologije i brzog prenosa informacija razmotrićemo prirodu kao faktor koji stoji na putu ovom procesu.
Šarolikost prirode koja utiče na oblikovanje
i stvaranje ličnosti i društva u cjelini, a koju
kao faktor ne možemo izbjeći jer jednostavno veliki i značajan dio vremena nismo u
mogućnosti da biramo tlo pod nogama, utiče
i na šarolikost populacije. Najizraženije razlike biće ako napravimo komparaciju južne i sjeverne polulopte (odnos topli morski
- hladni planinski krajevi). Razlika nije samo
klimatska, ali njenim djelovanjem, razlike u
psihološkim tipovima pojedinaca i grupa bivaju još veće, često nepremostive. Da li je
onda moguće govoriti o globalnom obrazcu,
po kojem će preferencije biti iste? Da li je
moguće vladati čitavom zemaljskom kuglom
putem jedinstvenih pravila? Da li je moguće
ugasiti razlike koje proizilaze iz prirodnog
faktora? Svi dosadašnji pokušaji globalnog
osvajanja bili su neuspješni, pa tako i ovaj
proces ima svoje granice u tački koja je daleko ispod zone minimalnog uslova prirodne
šarolikosti. Primjer Evropske unije kao najveće svjetske integracije takođe ima izražene slične elemente usljed prirodne šarolikosti. Topli romanski i hladni germanski narodi
imaju nepremostive razlike koje su najvećim
dijelom nastale upravo kao proizvod prirodnog faktora. Razlike usljed prirodnih uslova
su velike i na nivou pojedinih država, čak i
manjih oblasti i regija.
Under the assumption that globalization
represents the creation of the unique patterns of
behavior due to the porosity of technology and
the fast transfer of information, we will consider nature as the factor that stands in the way to
this process. The diversity of nature that affects
the modeling and creation of personality and the
society as a whole, which as a factor cannot be escaped simply because most of the time we are not
in a position to choose the soil under our feet, also
influences the diversity of population. We will
make the most obvious differences if we compare
the south and north hemisphere (relation between
warm coastal and cold mountain areas). The difference is not only climatic but through its acting,
the differences in the psychological types of individuals and groups become even bigger and often unbridgeable. Is it then possible to talk about
the global pattern based on which the preferences
would be the same? Is it possible to rule the whole
planet by the unique rules? Is it possible to abolish
the differences that stem from the natural factor?
All the former attempts of the global conquest
were unsuccessful; thus even this process has its
limits within the spot which is way under the zone
of minimal precondition of natural diversity. Example of the European Union as the world’s largest integration has also expressed similar elements
as a result of natural diversity. Warm Roman and
cold German peoples have their unbridgeable differences which occurred exactly as a product of
a natural factor. The differences which appeared
due to the natural conditions are immense even at
the level of some countries, as well as at the level
of miner areas and regions.
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M. Jovičić, D. Gračanin: THE LIMITS OF THE PHENOMENON OF GLOBALIZATION
Društveno uređenje kao prepreka
procesa globalizacije
Social order as an obstacle
to the process of globalization
Kao i u slučaju prirodnog okruženja, ni društvene norme nismo uvijek u
mogućnosti birati i mijenjati. Za razliku
od prirodnih zakona na čije se polje djelovanja može minimalno uticati, društvene
norme je kreirao čovjek. Bez obzira na tu
činjenicu, mi danas imamo razlike među
grupama koje su vrlo velike. Upravo te
razlike onemogućavaju potpunu standardizaciju i identifikaciju sa tipom željene jedinke. Ako uzmemo kao primjer evropski
kontinent, za kojeg možemo reći da je na
najvišem nivou svijesti i razvoja, uočićemo
da su i tu razlike vrlo upečatljive. Primjer
Engleske, gdje je gotovo sve što je vezano
za društveni život potpuno drugačije od susjednih zemalja, najbolje ilustruje situaciju. Englezi voze desnom stranom, piju čaj
a ne kafu, imaju drugačije TV frekvencije,
uživaju u konjskim trkama itd. Uporedimo
li ove i slične primjere, recimo, sa Frnacuskom, vidjećemo koliko su te razlike velike. Primjeri su životni i obični, ali upravo
na njima možemo vidjeti kolika je šarolikost i među grupama koje smatramo sličnim, a kamoli ako u obzir uzememo neke
potpuno suprotne krajeve svijeta. Ekonomija kao oblast koja nema granice, u ovom
slučaju mora uvažiti društvene norme i prilagođavati se njima.
Just like with the case of natural environment, neither we are always in a position to
choose and change the social norms. Unlike the
natural laws whose field of activity a man can
minimally change, social norms were created by
him. Regardless of that fact, nowadays we have
differences among groups that are substantially
big. It is exactly those differences that disable absolute standardization and identification with the
type of the desired unit. If we take the European continent for example, for which we can say
that it is at the highest level of consciousness and
development, we will notice that the differences
are even here severely striking. The example of
England, in which almost everything related to
the social life is absolutely different from what
it is in the neighboring countries, best illustrates
the situation. The English drive on the right side
of road, they drink tea not coffee, have different
TV frequencies, enjoy horse races, etc. If we
compare these and similar examples with, let us
say, France, we will see how great those differences are. The examples are simple and related
to life, but exactly on them, we can see how big
this diversity is even among the groups which we
consider alike, not to mention how different they
would be if we considered some completely opposite parts of the world. The economy, being a
field with no borders, in this case has to appreciate
the social norms and adjust itself to them.
Kultura kao prepreka
procesa globalizacije
Culture as an obstacle to
the process of globalization
Treći faktor kojeg ćemo analizirati
jeste kulturni. To što je posljednji ne znači
i da je najmanje bitan, nasuprot, to je faktor koji predstavlja najveću prepreku. Brojni
kulturni obrasci i velike razlike među njima
daju jednu posebnu notu ili dimenziju šarolikostima o kojima smo već govorili. O primjeru kulturne različitosti najbolje svjedoči
religija. Najveće religijske grupe (hrišćanstvo, islam, budizam) toliko su različite da
je jedino zajedničko među njima vjera koja
The third factor that we are going to analyze is the cultural one. Last but not least. On the
contrary, it is the factor that represents the greatest obstacle. Numerous cultural models and great
differences among them give one special note or
dimension to the diversity we discussed before.
Religions are the best example of the cultural diversity. The largest religious groups (Christianity, Islam, Buddhism) are so different so that the
only thing they have in common is faith which
is the essence of everything. However, the dif41
M. Jovičić, D. Gračanin: GRANICE FENOMENA GLOBALIZACIJE
je i osnova svega. Međutim, razlike su isto
tako upečatljive u okviru pojedinih grupa,
pa je unutar hrišćanstva nastala podjela na
pravoslavce, katolike i protestante. Pošto je
tema rada ekonomska, nećemo se dalje i dublje upuštati u podjele kojih ima na stotine,
samo želimo istaći koje su to prepreke, koje
čak i jednom od najvećih svjetskih brendova Koka-koli1 ne omogućavaju da bude
podjednako zastupljena u svim državama.
Primjer većine arapskih zemalja koje zbog
određenih animoziteta izbjegavaju konzumirati ovaj proizvod najbolje oslikava uticaj
kulturnog faktora. Ono što je još bitnije jeste
to što je u pitanju zastupanje određene ideje.
Primjer vjernika koji će prije ostati bez svijesti, nego što će popiti čašu vode kako ne bi
prekršio moralne norme u sebi, je nešto što
globalizacija još uvijek ne uspijeva srušiti.
ferences within a specific group are in the same
way that much striking, so that we differentiate
the Orthodox, Catholics and Protestants within
Christianity. Since the subject of this paper is
of economic type, we would not deal with and
go further into the hundreds of subdivisions, but
rather emphasize what are the obstacles that do
not enable Coca Cola1, one of the greatest world
brands, to be equally present in all countries. The
example of most of the Arab countries which
due to certain animosity avoid the consumption
of this beverage depicts the influence of cultural
factor in the best way. What matters even more
is that representation of a certain idea is an issue.
The example of a believer who would rather lose
their consciousness than have a glass of water so
as not to violate moral norms in themselves, is
something what globalization has not managed
to overthrow.
ZAKLJUČAK
CONCLUSION
Kao što je u uvodu istaknuto, osnovni
motiv za pisanje ovog rada bio je pogled
na globalizaciju kao fenomen iz jednog
drugog, kritičkog ugla. To da je globalizacija izmijenila uslove i poglede na svijet
jeste činjenica koja je nepobitna. Posljednjih decenija mnogo toga je izmijenjeno
iz korijena, i tu polemike ne postoje. Kao
ekonomiste nas interesuje ekonomska dimenzija, ona koja ne bi trebalo da ima prepreke u bilo čemu. Međutim, postoji niz
drugih životnih oblasti koje još uvijek ne
dozvoljavaju, čak ni ekonomiji, da utiče
na oblikovanje i usmjeravanje stvarnosti
u željenom smjeru. Upravo je to bila vodilja tokom rada kako bi smo vidjeli da i
u svojoj najvećoj ekspanziji globalizacija
nije uspjela (bar ne do sada) stopiti sve
granice i razlike. Ne ulazeći u to da li je
ovo montiran ili spontan proces, pozitivan ili negativan, jer sigurno jeste i jedno
i drugo, globalizacija ipak ima svoje granice. Prelaskom na kapitalistički model
sa kraja osamdesetih i početka devedetih
As it was emphasized in the Introduction, the main motif for writing this paper was
the view of globalization as a phenomenon
from a different, critical angle. That globalization has altered the preconditions and views of
the world, is an irrefutable fact. In last decades,
many things have been altered significantly and
there is no dilemma about it. Being economists,
we are interested in economic dimension, the
one that should not have any obstacles in anything. However, there is a set of other fields of
life that do not allow even the economy to influence the shaping and directing of reality into the
desired course. Precisely that was the guideline
of this paper which enabled us to see that even in
its expansion, the globalization did not manage
(at least not until now) to merge all borders and
differences. Without analyzing whether this is a
spontaneous or constructed process, positive or
negative, because it is for sure both of it, globalization still has its limits. With the shift onto the
capitalist model in late eighties and early nineties, many thought that the differences would
disappear. But unlike the previous bipolar divi-
1 Coca-Cola bezalkoholno gazirano piće i istoimena multinacionalna
kompanija sa sjedištem u Atlanti osnovana 1892. godine, jedan je od
najpoznatijih svjetskih brendova.
1 Coca Cola, a non-alcoholic beverage and the company with headquarters in Atlanta, established in 1892, is one of the best known
world brands.
42
M. Jovičić, D. Gračanin: THE LIMITS OF THE PHENOMENON OF GLOBALIZATION
godina mnogi su smatrali da će nestati razlike, međutim, za razliku od prijašnjeg
bipolarnog danas imamo sistem u kojem
se nadmeće više polova. Iako još uvijek
dominantne SAD (Sjedinjene Američke
Države) imaju velike i jake rivale u zemljama dalekog istoka, Japanu, sve jačoj
Kini i Indiji, uloga Rusije u poslednjim
godinama takođe je značajna, Evropska
unija, iako prolazi kroz krizne etape, nikada veća i jača, Brazil kao predvodnik Južne Amerike takođe nije zanemarljiv, iako
još daleko ispod pozicije koja ugrožava
poredak. Dakle, postavlja se pitanje da li
je globalizacija ujedinila i anulirala šarolikosti, ili su one danas još veće i izraženije
nego ranih osamdesetih godina? Suština
rada jeste da razlike u vidu tri faktora koja
smo izložili još uvijek stoje kao tri stuba,
koja će i u budućem vremenu biti glavna
prepreka svima onima koji žele da prave
jedinstvene obrasce, pa makar to pokušavali učiniti i ekonomskim, a ne vojnim putem. Naime, sadržaj rada, iako obuhvata
šire polje djelovanja, konačno ima za cilj
osvrt na ekonomiju. Naravno, da bi čitalac
u potpunosti shvatio suštinu, potrebno je
razumijevanje i nekih drugih oblasti, pa je
upravo iz tog razloga istaknuto da je potrebna multidisciplinarnost kako bi cjelokupan mozaik bio bistriji i jasniji. Korišteni primjeri su odraz banalnih situacija,
s ciljem da čitaocu približe činjenično stanje i to upravo djelovanjem ekonomije.
sion, today we have system in which many poles
compete with each other. Although still very
dominant, the USA (United States of America)
has big and powerful rivals in the Far East countries such as Japan, stronger and stronger China
and India, the role of Russia was likewise significant in past years, the European Union, even
though it goes through critical periods, has never
been bigger and stronger, Brazil, being the leader of the South America is not negligible as well,
though still far beyond the position that would
jeopardize the system. Therefore, the question
arises whether globalization has united and annulled diversities or they are even bigger and
more significant today that they were in the early
eighties. The point of this paper is to say that the
differences existing in the shape of three factors
which we explained here stand as three pillars
that would in the future time be main obstacle to
all those who would wish to create unique models even if they would try to achieve it with economic not military means. Namely, even though
it comprehends much wider field of work, the
content of this paper has the objective to make a
review on economy. Certainly, in order to make
a reader absolutely comprehend the essence of
this paper, the comprehension of some other areas as well is needed so due to this argument, it is
emphasized that the multidisciplinary approach
is requested so as to make the overall mosaic
clearer and more comprehensive. The examples
used here are the reflection of banal situations;
their purpose is to explain the factual situation to
the reader through economy at work.
LITERATURA
LITERATURE
Bauman, Z. (1998). Globalization: The
human Consequences. New York:
Columbia University Press.
Bauman, Z. (1998). Globalization: The
human Consequences. New York:
Columbia University Press.
Beck, U. (2000). What is Globalization?.
Cambridge: Polity Press.
Beck, U. (2000). What is Globalization?.
Cambridge: Polity Press.
Jovanović Gavrilović, P. (2004). Međunarodno
poslovno finansiranje (deseto izdanje).
Beograd: Čugura print.
Jovanović Gavrilović, P. (2004).
International business finance (tenth
edition). Beograd: Čugura print.
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M. Jovičić, D. Gračanin: GRANICE FENOMENA GLOBALIZACIJE
Kancir, R. (2013). Međunarodni marketing
(prvo izdanje). Beograd: Štamparija
nauka i društvo.
Kancir, R. (2013). International Marketing
(first edition). Beograd: Štamparija
nauka i društvo.
Levitt, T. (1983, May-June). The
Globalization of Markets. Harvard
Business Review, No. 3., 92-102.
Levitt, T. (1983, May-June). The
Globalization of Markets. Harvard
Business Review, No. 3., 92-102.
Pelević, B. (2001). Uvod u međunarodnu
ekonomiju. Beograd: Program
štampa.
Pelević, B. (2001). Introduction to
International Economics. Beograd:
Program štampa.
Šušnjić, Đ. (2007). Metodologija (četvrto
izdanje). Beograd: Čigoja štampa.
Šušnjić, Đ. (2007). Methodology (fourth
edition). Beograd: Čigoja štampa.
44
POSLOVNE FINANSIJE I BANKARSTVO - BUSINESS FINANCE AND BANKING
RIZICI OD BITNOG UTICAJA NA KREDITNI BONITET PREDUZEĆA
RISKS OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CREDIT
WORTHINESS OF A COMPANY
Doc. dr Vitomir Starčević*
*Univerzitet u Istočnom Sarajevu, Fakultet Poslovne ekonomije Bijeljina
University of East Sarajevo, Faculty of Business and Economics Bijeljina
Pregledni članak
doi 10.7251/OIK1301005S, UDK 336.71: [005.52:65.012.123
Review paper
REZIME
SUMMARY
Kreditni bonitet preduzeća u fokusu
je stalnog interesovanja poverilaca. Posedovanjem kreditnog boniteta preduzeće stiče poverenje poverilaca da će svoje obaveze
platiti o roku. Takođe, preduzeće poseduje
sigurnost i likvidnost i u stanju je da se štiti
od prezaduženosti. Preduzeće bez minimuma
kreditnog boniteta ne poseduje te osobenosti,
a permanentno je izloženo visokim rizicima
u poslovanju. Naime, takvim preduzećima
u principu je ugrožen opstanak jer teško se
mogu održati na tržištu. Svrha istraživanja
u ovom radu i jeste otkrivanje faktora koji
izazivaju kreditni rizik i rizik ostvarenja finansijskog rezultata, koji bitno utiču na kreditni bonitet preduzeća i njegovu finansijsku
stabilnost.
Credit worthiness of a company is in
the focus of continuing interests of creditors.
Credit worthiness of a company ensures the
creditors that the company shall repay its liabilities on time. In addition, it provides the
company with security and liquidity, enabling
it to protect itself against over-indebtedness.
The company with no minimum credit worthiness does not possess such characteristics, and
is constantly exposed to high business risks. In
fact, the existence of such companies is generally threatened, since it is very difficult for
them to sustain in the market. The purpose of
this study is to detect the factors that generate
credit risk and risk of achieving the financial
result, which significantly affect the credit worthiness of a company and its financial stability.
Ključne reči: kreditni bonitet, preduzeće, kapital,
likvidnost, rizici.
Keywords: credit worthiness, company, capital,
liquidity, risks.
UVOD
INTRODUCTION
Koncept tržišne privrede podrazumeva slobodno delovanje ekonomskih zakona u
domenu ponude i tražnje roba, usluga, radne
snage, novca i novčanih hartija od vrednosti
u okviru jedne domicilne privrede. U savremenim tržišnim privredama razvijenih zemalja isti tržišni mehanizam deluje i kada je u
pitanju ponuda i tražnja radne snage, novca ili
hartija od vrednosti, respektujući pri tom specifične propise pojedinih zemalja. U takvim
uslovima niko nema stopostotnu sigurnost
da će uspeti prodati svu svoju proizvedenu
The concept of market economy implies the free operation of economic laws in
the domain of supply and demand of commodities, services, labour, money and securities
within a national economy. In modern market
economies of developed countries, the very
same market mechanism is applicable when
it comes to the supply and demand of labour,
money or securities, thereby respecting the
specific requirements of individual countries.
In such circumstances, not a single company is
one hundred per cent certain that it should be
45
V. Starčević: RIZICI OD BITNOG UTICAJA NA KREDITNI BONITET PREDUZEĆA
količinu proizvoda, ili prodati odgovarajuću
raspoloživu ‘’količinu’’ usluga, po odgovarajućim povoljnim cenama. Dakle, sam čin proizvodnje i prodaje roba i usluga nepoznatom
kupcu u tržišnoj privredi uvek nosi sa sobom
određeni stepen poslovnog rizika.
able to sell all of its produced quantities or a
particular available quantity of services, at the
appropriate affordable prices. Thus, the alone
act of producing and selling goods and services
to an unknown buyer in a market economy always brings a certain level of business risk.
Svakako, da se, kao neminovnost, postojanje rizika u poslovanju preduzeća odražava na njegov kreditni bonitet. Kada je reč
o rizicima koji bitno utiču na kreditni bonitet
preduzeća i njegovu finansijsku stabilnost,
treba istaći sledeća dva - kreditni rizik i rizik
ostvarenja finansijskog rezultata.
Certainly, the existence of risk in a company’s business is reflected onto its credit worthiness. When referring to the risks that significantly affect the credit worthiness of a company
and its financial stability, the following two risks
should be particularly noted - credit risk and risk
of achieving the financial result.
KREDITNI RIZIK
CREDIT RISK
Kreditni rizik se definiše kao rizik neizvršenja obaveza po osnovu nastalog duga, tj. neplaćanja glavnice i kamate
od strane dužnika (Đukić, Bjelica, Ristić,
2004). On izražava trajnu (usled stečaja)
ili privremenu nemogućnost dužnika (usled
nelikvidnosti) da u ugovorenom roku ispuni
obavezu ili je u tom roku samo delimično
ispuni.
Credit risk is defined as the risk of default on the debt incurred, that is, payment of
principal and interest by the debtor (Đukić,
Bjelica, Ristić, 2004). It expresses a permanent inability (due to bankruptcy) or a temporary inability of the debtor (due to insolvency)
to perform his obligation towards the bank
within the contracted period or within that period only partially fulfilled.
Kreditni rizik je oblik rizika koji
je više od svih uslovljen neizvesnim okolnostima vezanim za poslovanje preduzeća i
zbog toga ima za posledicu kontrole velikog
broja parametara kako kod preduzeća (potencijalnog dužnika) tako i u banci. Mada
neće posebno analizirati rizike sa kojima
se susreću dužnici, banka mora imati predstavu rizika sa kojima se dužnik redovno
susreće u svom poslovanju, pri tome imajući u vidu karakter njegovog poslovanja,
kao i ekonomsko okruženje u kome posluje.
Kreditni rizik se može odnositi kako na zajmove tako i na druge kreditne istrumente
(hartije od vrednosti). Rizičnost pojedinih
finansijskih operacija zavisi od razvijenosti
finansijskog tržišta zemlje, broja i strukture
finansijskih posrednika kao i od zakonske
regulative.
Credit risk is a form of risk that is,
more than any other, determined by uncertain
circumstances related to the company’s operations and therefore results in controlling a
large number of parameters both in companies (potential debtors) and in the bank. Although the bank will not particularly analyse
the risks faced by the debtors, it shall form
an opinion on the risks the borrower encounters regularly in its business, while bearing
in mind the nature of its business and the
economic environment in which it operates.
Credit risk can be related both to loans and
to other credit instruments (securities). Risk
level of certain financial operations depends
on the level of development of the country’s
financial market, the number and structure of
financial intermediaries as well as the legislation.
Osnovni razlog za izradu kreditne
analize poslovanja zajmotražioca je merenje
rizika ili neplaćanja, odnosno nevraćanja kre-
The main reason for making a credit
analysis of the debtor’s business is the measurement of risk or non-payment, i.e. failure
46
V. Starčević: RISKS OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CREDIT WORTHINESS OF A COMPANY
dita koji treba da mu se odobri. Mnogi faktori
mogu uticati da poslovanje zajmotražioca u
budućnosti bude nedovoljno rentabilno ili
čak nerentabilno i da zajmotražilac ostvari
gubitak. Analiza kreditnog boniteta prvenstveno ima za cilj utvrđivanje spremnosti i
sposobnosti zajmotražioca da vrati kredit pod
ugovorenim uslovima. Sposobnost se shvata
kao objektivno svojstvo preduzeća (zajmotražioca), dok se spremnost isključivo vezuje
za subjektivno svojstvo njegove uprave. Oba
svojstva proizilaze iz njegovog kreditnog boniteta.
to repay the loan which is to be approved to
the debtor. Many factors could affect the future operations of the debtor and cause it to be
insufficiently profitable or even unprofitable,
thus causing loss to the debtor. Analysis of
credit rating is primarily aimed at determining the willingness and ability of the debtor to
repay the loan under the terms of the contract.
The ability is perceived as a realistic capacity
of a company (debtor), while the willingness
is exclusively related to the subjective status
of its administration. Both properties are derived from its credit worthiness.
Koncepcija same analize kreditnog
boniteta preduzeća poznata je u literaturi
kao pravilo ”5C” (five Cs of credit). Suština ove analize svodi se na dobijanje što
preciznijih odgovora na pitanja: (1) Da li
zajmotražilac može na vreme isplaćivati dospele obaveze? (2) Da li su realna i
likvidna njegova potraživanja i zalihe?
(3) Da li zajmotražilac ostvaruje realnu stopu prinosa? (4) Do koje granice se
može smanjivati profitna stopa zajmotražioca, a da to ne dovede u pitanje njegovu
mogućnost isplate kamata, renti, glavnice
kredita i slično? (5) Koliko će se smanjiti
vrednost njegove aktive u trenutku bankrotstva u odnosu na bilansiranu vrednost
u trenutku kada kreditori počnu snositi gubitak po osnovu datog kredita? (6) Da li je
finansijsko stanje zajmotražioca stabilno,
nestabilno ili nešto između?
The concept of the analysis of a company’s credit worthiness is known in the literature as the rule of “5C” (five Cs of credit).
The essence of this analysis is to obtain as
precise answers as possible to the following
questions: (1) Whether the debtor can repay
its obligations in due time? (2) Are its assets
and supplies realistic and liquid? (3) Whether the debtor manages to achieve a real rate
of return? (4) To what extent can the debtor’s
rate of profit be reduced, without affecting or
questioning its ability to repay the interests,
rents, principals of loans and the like? (5) To
what extent will the value of its assets at the
time of bankruptcy be reduced, with respect
to balanced value at the time when the creditors begin to bear losses on loans given?
(6) Whether the financial status of the debtor is stable, unstable, or somewhere in between?
U datu kreditnu analizu nužno je uneti i vremensku komponentu, u zavisnosti od
toga da li se radi o kratkoročnom, srednjoročnom ili dugoročnom kreditu.
The provided credit analysis shall
include a time component, depending on
whether it is a short, medium or a long-term
loan.
Već je napomenuto da se pri donošenju
odluke o davanju kredita, za potrebe kreditne
analize, koriste faktori poznati pod nazivom
“5C”. To su: (1) karakteristike zajmotražioca
(character), (2) kapital zajmotražioca (capital), (3) kapacitet zajmotražioca (capacity),
(4) uslovi obezbeđenja kapitala (collateral),
(5) uslovi poslovanja zajmotražioca (conditions), a kako je prikazano na shemi 1.
It has already been mentioned that in the
process of making a decision on granting loans,
the factors known as “5C” are used for credit
analysis. Those factors are as follows: (1) characteristics of the debtor (character), (2) debtor’s
equity (capital), (3) capacity of the debtor (capacity), (4) conditions of securing the equity
(collateral), (5) operating conditions of the debtor (conditions), as illustrated in Scheme 1.
47
V. Starčević: RIZICI OD BITNOG UTICAJA NA KREDITNI BONITET PREDUZEĆA
Kapacitet
Capacity
Karakter
Character
Kreditni rizik
Credit risk
Kapital
Capital
Zaloga
Collateral
Kondicija
Conditions
Shema 1. Faktori kreditnog rizika
Scheme 1. Credit risk factors
Kapacitet (capacity) izražava subjektivnu procenu proizvodne i prodajne sposobnosti zajmotražioca. To je polazni i najvažniji
faktor, jer determiniše sposobnost preduzeća
(koje se zadužuje) da otplati dug u ugovorenom roku.
Capacity denotes subjective assessment of production and sales ability of the
debtor. It is the basic and most important factor, because it determines the ability of the
company (applying for a loan) to repay the
debt within the agreed timeframe.
On predstavlja izraz poslovne efikasnosti, a analiza ovog faktora kreditnog rizika
polazi od procene likvidnosti i solventnosti
dužnika u budućem periodu.
It is an expression of business efficiency, and the analysis of this credit risk factor is based on the assessment of liquidity and
solvency of the debtor in the future period.
Karakter (character) izražava verovatnoću da će zajmotražilac u budućnosti odgovoriti preuzetoj obavezi, odnosno
spremnost menadžmenta preduzeća da o
roku otplaćuje dug. Sud o karakteru donosi
se na osnovu njegove likvidnosti, rentabilnosti i akumulativnosti. Valjanost ovog faktora je početni uslov za preduzeće da dobije
kredit od poverioca.
Character (character) denotes the
probability that the debtor is to repay its obligations in the future or willingness of the
company’s management to settle the debt in
due time. The character is evaluated on the
basis of its liquidity, profitability and accumulation. The validity of this factor is the initial
requirement for approving a loan to a company by the creditor.
Kapital (capital) je, u stvari, neto imovina vlasnika (preduzeća) i kao garantni kapital predstavlja rezervu solventnosti, gornju
granicu visine kredita i oslonac sigurnosti
vraćanja kredita. On je odraz opšteg finansijskog stanja zajmotražioca koje se meri brojnim koeficijentima. Kapital predstavlja njegova raspoloživa sredstva i on je najpoželjniji
uslov za odobravanje kredita.
Capital (capital) denotes, in fact, the net
assets of the owner (company) and as a guarantee capital it represents a solvency reserve, upper limit of the loan and the basis of security to
repay the loan. It is a reflection of general financial condition of the debtor, which is measured
by a number of coefficients. The capital represents its available resources, and is the most
desirable condition for the loan approval.
Pokriće (collateral) predstavlja sredstva obezbeđenja koja su zaloga za vraćanje
kredita. To je, u stvari, raspolaganje realnom
imovinom koja je uslov za dobijanje kredita
i čini njegovo pokriće sve do otplate kredi-
Collateral represents forms of security
that are the guarantee for the loan repayment.
It is a pledge of an asset to the debtor as a condition for granting the loan and is the guarantee against the debtors’ default until the loan
48
V. Starčević: RISKS OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CREDIT WORTHINESS OF A COMPANY
ta. Svrha kolaterala je pokriće slabih tačaka
preduzeća sa minimumom kreditnog boniteta
ili preduzeća koja nisu dovoljno poznata poveriocima.
has been repaid. The purpose of collateral is
covering the weak points of companies with
minimal credit worthiness or companies that
are not well known to the creditors.
Kondicija (conditions) predstavlja
opšte uslove poslovanja kao što su uticaj konjukturnih kretanja i ostalih ekonomskih trendova na privredni subjekt da odgovori svojim
obavezama. Ovo se prvenstveno odnosi na
makroekonomske i institucionalne promene
koje bitnije utiču na poslovnu efikasnost i
efikasnost preduzeća i sposobnost otplate kredita. Poznavanje tih uslova pruža izvesnost
suzbijanja previsokih margina nastupanja
kreditnih rizika. Ovaj faktor kreditnog rizika
je uglavnom stabilan u stabilnim privredama.
Međutim, u privredama u tranziciji, značaj
ovog faktora je veoma izražen.
Conditions denote general business
terms such as the impact of conjuncture trends
and other economic trends onto the economic
entity to meet its obligations. This is primarily related to macroeconomic and institutional changes that significantly affect business
efficiency, company’s effectiveness and loan
repayment ability. Understanding such conditions provides certainty of suppressing the occurrence of excessive margins of credit risks.
This factor of credit risk is generally stable
in stable economies. However, in transition
economies, this factor is of extreme importance.
Smatra se da su najbitnija prva tri faktora, dok preostala dva samo upotpunjuju i
proširuju analizu ekonomskog ambijenta zajmotražioca i ukazuju na mogućnost osiguranja
datog kredita. Treba napomenuti da je ova analiza nekada obuhvatala samo prva tri “C”, a danas se proširuje sa šestim “C” koje predstavlja
faktor rizika zemlje (contury).
It is believed that the first three factors are
the most important ones, while the other two simply complement and extend the analysis of economic environment of the debtor and indicate the
insurance possibility of the given loan. It should
be noted that this analysis used to include only
the first three ”C”s. Today it is extended with the
sixth ‘’C’’ which is a risk factor for the country.
RIZIK OSTVARENJA FINANSIJSKOG
REZULTATA
RISK OF ACHIEVING THE FINANCIAL
RESULT
Poznato je da koncept tržišne privrede
podrazumeva slobodno delovanje ekonomskih zakona u domenu ponude i tražnje roba u
okviru jedne nacionalne privrede. U savremenim tržišnim privredama tržišni mehanizam
isto deluje kada je u pitanju ponuda i tražnja
radne snage, novca ili hartija od vrednosti.
Naime, sam čin proizvodnje i prodaje roba i
usluga nepoznatom kupcu u tržišnoj privredi
uvek nosi sa sobom određeni stepen poslovnog rizika. Poslovni rizik odražava stalno
prisutnu neizvesnost u pogledu očekivanog
poslovnog dobitka, kao prinosa na ukupna
poslovna sredstva. Okosnicu dejstva tog rizika čine fiksni troškovi poslovanja koji su
neelastični na kratkoročne oscilacije u obimu
aktivnosti.
It is well known that the concept of
market economy implies the free operation of
economic laws in the domain of supply and
demand of commodities within a national
economy. In modern market economies, market mechanism operates in the same manner
when it comes to the supply and demand of labour, money or securities. Namely, the act of
producing and selling commodities and services to the unknown buyer in a market economy always involves a certain level of business risk. Business risk reflects the constant
uncertainty regarding the expected trading
profit, as the return on total business assets.
Basic effects of such risk are fixed business
expenses that are inelastic to short-term fluctuations in the scope of activities.
49
V. Starčević: RIZICI OD BITNOG UTICAJA NA KREDITNI BONITET PREDUZEĆA
Finansijski rizik je determinisan neizvesnošću ostvarenja budućeg neto dobitka, kao
prinosa na sopstvena poslovna sredstva. Njegovo dejstvo opredeljeno je prisustvom fiksnih
rashoda finansiranja koji se ne mogu prilagoditi
kratkoročnim fluktuacijama poslovnog dobitka.
Financial risk is determined by the uncertainty of realization of the future net profit
as return on own business assets. Its effect is
allocated by the presence of fixed financing
expenses that cannot be adapted to short-term
fluctuations in trading profit.
Ukoliko su u preduzeću zastupljeni i poslovni i finansijski rashodi, tada je ono izloženo
dejstvu dvostrukog rizika, poslovnog i finansijskog, odnosno složenom (totalnom) riziku. Taj
složeni rizik ispoljava se kroz neizvesnost očekivanog neto dobitka zbog mogućih fluktuacija
nivoa aktivnosti, odnosno obima i prihoda od
prodaje proizvoda i usluga. Ovome treba dodati
i to da ovi rizici, samim tim što utiču na ostvarenje finansijskog rezultata preduzeća, imaju i
direktan uticaj na njegov kreditni bonitet.
If both business and financial expenses
are present in the company, then such company is exposed to double risk (leverage), both
business and finance risk, i.e. compound (total)
risk. Such compound risk arises from the uncertainty of the expected net profit due to possible
fluctuations in the activity level, or volume and
revenue from sales of products and services. It
should be added that such risks, by affecting the
financial performance of a company, have a direct impact on its creditworthiness.
Poslovni rizik (leverage)
Business risk (leverage)
Poslovni rizik se definiše kao neizvesnost
ostvarenja poslovnog dobitka kao prinosa na uložena sredstva (kapital). Faktori od kojih ta neizvesnost
može zavisiti su: (1) varijabilnost tražnje (količinski
izražene), (2) varijabilnost prodajnih cena, (3) varijabilnost nabavnih cena, (4) sposobnosti prilagođavanja prodajnih cena promenama u nabavnim cenama,
(5) učešće fiksnih troškova u ukupnim troškovima
poslovanja.
Business risk is defined as the uncertainty of achieving trading profit as a return on
invested funds (capital). Such uncertainty may
depend on the following factors: (1) Demand
variability (expressed in quantity), (2) Variability in sales prices, (3) Variability of supply prices,
(4) Ability to adapt selling prices to changes in
the purchase prices, (5) Share of fixed costs in
total business costs.
Prvo, ako je prodaja preduzeća stabilnija uz ostale nepromenjene uslove, onda je i
poslovni rizik manji. Drugo, preduzeća čiji se
proizvodi na tržištu prodaju sa znatnim stepenom nestabilnosti su izloženija većem poslovnom riziku od onih preduzeća kod kojih su
prodajne cene relativno stabilne. Treće, visok
stepen neizvesnosti nivoa nabavnih cena takođe deluje na povećanje stepena poslovnog rizika. Četvrto, što je sposobnost prilagođavanja
prodajnih cena promenama u nabavnim cenama veća, preduzeće je manje izloženo poslovnom riziku i, obrnuto, s tim što je ova sposobnost od posebne važnosti u uslovima inflacije.
I najzad, peto, što je učešće fiksnih troškova
koji se ne smanjuju sa opadanjem tražnje veće,
u tom slučaju preduzeće je izloženo većem stepenu poslovnog rizika.
Firstly, if the company’s sale is stable
with other conditions unchanged, it means
that the business risk is lower. Secondly, the
companies whose products are sold with a
significant degree of instability in the market
are exposed to greater business risk than those
companies whose selling prices are relatively stable. Thirdly, high level of uncertainty of
purchase prices also affects the increase of the
business risk level. Apart from that, the higher
the ability to adapt the sales prices to changes in the purchase prices, the company is less
exposed to business risk, and vice versa, provided that this ability is of great importance
during inflation. Finally, the higher is the share
of fixed costs which do not decrease with the
decrease of demand, the higher is the level
of business risk the company is exposed to.
50
V. Starčević: RISKS OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CREDIT WORTHINESS OF A COMPANY
Poslovni dobitak (poslovni rezultat)
kao prinos na uložena sredstva predstavlja razliku između marže pokrića i rashoda perioda,
ali bez kamata.
Trading profit (business result) as a return on invested assets represents the difference
between the coverage margins and costs incurred
in the period, but without interest.
Poslovni dobitak čine: (1) rashodi finansiranja (kamate), (2) porezi iz bruto dobitka, (3) neto dobitak.
Trading profit consists of: (1) Financing costs (interest), (2) taxes from gross income, (3) net gain.
Princip rentabilnosti koji proizilazi iz
cilja preduzeća ukazuje da ukupno uloženi
kapital treba da produkuje neki poslovni dobitak u preduzeću. Maksimiziranje prinosa na
ukupno uloženi kapital, odnosno maksimiziranje poslovnog dobitka je osnovni zadatak i
želja svakog ulagača kapitala.
The principle of cost-effectiveness derived from the company’s objective indicates
that total invested capital should result in an
trading profit of the company. Maximizing
the return on total invested capital, i.e. maximizing the business profit is the primary task
and desire of every investor of capital.
Međutim, ulaganje kapitala sa sobom nosi i određeni procenat rizika ostvarenja poslovnog dobitka, jer nastaju fiksni
troškovi, bez obzira da li je uloženi kapital
aktiviran ili ne i sa kojim intenzitetom će se
koristiti. Ta vrsta troškova se naziva rashodima perioda, a to su amortizacija i fiksni
troškovi koji su vezani za organizaciju preduzeća. To znači da su troškovi amortizacije i troškovi organizacije fiksnog karaktera,
i oni se moraju pokriti kako bi se izbegle
posledice stvaranja poslovnog gubitka koji
bi predstavljao negativnu razliku između
marže pokrića i fiksnih i pretežno fiksnih
rashoda.
However, capital investment implies a
certain percentage of risk of achieving business profit due to incurred fixed costs, regardless of whether the equity has been activated
or not, and regardless of the intensity of its
use. Such type of cost is called the expenditure of the period, more specifically, amortization and fixed costs related to the organization of the company. This means that the costs
of amortization and the organisation costs are
of a fixed type, and they must be covered in
order to avoid the consequences of creating
an operating loss that would represent a negative difference between the coverage margin,
fixed and largely fixed expenditures.
Preduzeća koja za svoje finansiranje koriste sopstveni i pozajmljeni kapital
kako bi održala prostu reprodukciju, moraju
supstituisati pozajmljeni kapital sopstvenim
kapitalom, a to je jedino moguće ukoliko
se sopstveni kapital uvećava iz finansijskog
rezultata. U toku vremena, kada preduzeće
otplaćuje pozajmljeni kapital, supstitucija
mora da bude najmanje u visini razlike između dospele glavnice za otplatu pozajmljenog
kapitala i amortizacije. Tako bi preduzeće
obezbedilo opstanak, jer prostu reprodukciju
finansira iz sopstvenog kapitala. Ako bi preduzeće za finansiranje proste reprodukcije
koristilo pozajmljeni kapital, to bi značilo
novo zaduživanje, a, istovremeno, bi izazvalo nepoverenje kod poverilaca u rentabilnost
preduzeća, zbog toga što preduzeće nije u
Companies which use their own and
borrowed capital to maintain simple reproduction, must substitute the borrowed assets
with their own assets, which is possible only
if the equity is increased from the financial
result. During the period of time while the
company is repaying borrowed assets, the
substitution shall be at least equal to the difference between the principal due for repayment of debt and amortization. This would
ensure the company’s survival, since the
simple reproduction is financed by its own
assets. If the company would use borrowed
assets for financing simple reproduction, it
would mean new indebtedness, while causing mistrust in the company’s profitability
among the creditors at the same time, since
the company is unable to finance simple re51
V. Starčević: RIZICI OD BITNOG UTICAJA NA KREDITNI BONITET PREDUZEĆA
stanju da prostu reprodukciju finansira sopstvenim kapitalom. Cilj svakog preduzeća,
osim finansiranja proste reprodukcije sopstvenim kapitalom, je i finansiranje makar
jednog dela proširene reprodukcije iz sopstvenog kapitala za što je neophodan preduslov i to da prirast sopstvenog kapitala iz
finansijskog rezultata mora biti veći od nivoa
supstitucije pozajmljenog kapitala. Dakle, finansiranjem jednog dela proširene reprodukcije iz sopstvenog kapitala za preduzeće je
značajno, jer obezbeđuje svoj rast, a time se
jača i položaj preduzeća na tržištu kao i njegova konkurentnost.
production utilising its own assets. The goal
of every company, other than financing simple reproduction by their own capital, is financing of at least one segment of expanded reproduction utilising their own capital.
A necessary prerequisite for such action is
that the growth of a company’s own equity
is higher than the substitution level of borrowed equity. Therefore, funding a portion of
expanded reproduction from the company’s
own equity is important because it ensures
the company’s growth, thus reinforcing the
position of the company in the market and its
competitiveness.
Prema tome, preduzeće ne samo da
mora pokrivati rashode perioda već se mora
usmeriti i na maksimiranje poslovnog dobitka.
Ukoliko preduzeće ne želi da njegovi rezultati
budu loši, ono mora voditi računa o tome kakav je odnos između sopstvenog i pozajmljenog kapitala, jer će od toga, u velikoj meri, zavisiti i rizik i prinos koji će preduzeće ostvariti.
Therefore, the company’s task is not
only to cover the expenses for the period but
it must focus on maximizing trading profit.
If the company requires favourable results, it
must consider the ratio between its own and
borrowed equity, since it greatly determines
the risk and income that the company will accomplish.
Međutim, izloženost preduzeća poslovnom riziku zahteva neophodnost pronalaženja adekvatnih metoda za njegovo merenje i kvantitativno izražavanje. Jedna od tih
metoda je svakako i finansijski leverage koji
procenjuje efekte privređivanja u odnosu na
fiksne troškove poslovanja. Za preduzeće se
kaže da ima visok stepen poslovnog leverage-a ako je veći deo od ukupnih troškova preduzeća fiksnog karaktera. Naime, u poslovnoj
terminologiji visok stepen poslovnog leverage-a znači da relativno male promene u prodaji mogu rezultirati značajnim promenama u
poslovnom dobitku, a time i u stopi prinosa na
uložena sredstva.
However, the company’s exposure
to business risk requires the necessity of
identifying appropriate methods for its
measurement and quantitative definition.
One of these methods is certainly the financial leverage which evaluates the economic
effects in relation to fixed operating costs.
A company is said to have a high level of
business leverage if a larger share of total
costs is of a fixed type. Namely, in business
terminology, a high level of business leverage implies that a relatively small change
in sales can result in significant changes in
trading profit and hence in the rate of return
on invested funds.
Mehanizam poslovnog leverage-a da
se najlakše objasniti i shvatiti u kontekstu grafikona rentabiliteta koji odražava efekat date
kombinacije obima prodaje, asortimana proizvoda, prodajnih cena, varijabilnih i fiksnih
troškova, na poslovni dobitak koji preduzeće
ostvaruje iz svoje redovne aktivnosti. Za pretpostavljenu kombinaciju ovih faktora, grafikon rentabiliteta bi se mogao konstruisati na
sledeći način (Krasulja, Ivanišević, 2000):
A business leverage mechanism is
easily explained and understood in the context of the profitability graph that reflects the
effect of a given combination of sales volume, product range, sales prices, variable
and fixed costs, onto trading profit that a
company makes from its regular activities.
For the assumed combination of these factors, a profitability chart could be drawn as
follows (Krasulja, Ivanišević, 2000):
52
V. Starčević: RISKS OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CREDIT WORTHINESS OF A COMPANY
1000
zona dobitka
Troškovi i prihodi (u 000 jed.)
Costs and revenues (in 000 units)
900
800
700
600
donja granica rentabilnosti
zona gubitka
loss zone
oškovi
ukupni tr enses
total exp
500
400
varijabilni troškovi
variable expenses
cije
iza e
l
a
re
om
200
od n inc
d
o
o
ti
ih
100 pr ealisa
r
300
10
20
30
40
50
60
70
Obim realizacije (u 000 jed.)
Realisation volume (in 000 units)
80
90
100
Grafikon 1. Grafikon rentabilnosti
Graph 1. Profitability chart
Dakle, iz grafičkog prikaza sledi da
se pozitivna razlika između prihoda i troškova sve više sužava kako obim prodaje pada
da bi na kraju bila negativna, što pokazuje
prerastanje dobitka u poslovni gubitak, ali
sve to uz pretpostavku da se dejstvo ostalih
faktora učini konstantnim. Treba zapaziti da
bi preduzeće prodajom 53.333 jedinice proizvoda po prodajnoj ceni od $100, varijabilnim troškovima po jedinici od $39,999625 i
ukupnim fiksnim troškovima za posmatrani
period od $3.200.000 ostvarilo donju granicu rentabilnosti na kojoj bi se ukupni troškovi izjednačili sa prihodima od prodaje, a,
u tom slučaju, preduzeće ne bi ostvarilo poslovni dobitak, jer bi on bio jednak nuli. Tu
konstataciju, potvrđuje i obračun poslovnog dobitka prezentiran u tabeli 1.
Thus, the chart shows that the positive difference between revenues and costs
is narrowed as the sales volume drops, ultimately ending as negative, indicating the
transformation of profit into operational loss,
but also with the assumption that the effect of
other factors remains constant. It should be
noted that simply by selling 53,333 units of
a product at the sale price of $100, with variable costs per unit of $39.999625 and total
fixed costs of $3.2 million for the concerned
period, a company would reach a profitability threshold at which the total cost would be
equated with the sales income, and, in that
case, the company would not achieve trading profit, since it would be equal to zero.
Such finding is confirmed by the calculation
of trading profit presented in Table 1.
53
V. Starčević: RIZICI OD BITNOG UTICAJA NA KREDITNI BONITET PREDUZEĆA
Tabela 1
Obračun poslovnog dobitka
Table 1
Calculation of trading profit
Obračun poslovnog dobitka
Calculation of trading profit
Redni broj
No.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
Elementi
Elements
Prihodi od prodaje (53.333 x 100)
Sales income (53.333 x 100)
Varijabilni troškovi (53.333 x 39,999625)
Variable cost (53.333 x 39,999625)
Marginal benefit
Marginal benefit
Fiksni troškovi
Fixed cost
Poslovni dobitak
Trading profit
Iznos ($)
Amount ($)
%
5.333.300
100
2.133.300
40
3.200.000
60
3.200.000
60
0
Zaključujemo da što su obim i prihodi od prodaje veći, opterećenost fiksnim troškovima je manja, a poslovni dobitak je veći i
obrnuto.
It can be concluded that if the higher the
sales volume and income are, the lower is the
burden of fixed costs, with higher trading profit
and vice versa.
Takođe, treba konstatovati da za bilo
koji obim prodaje teorijski je moguće utvrditi
stepen dejstva poslovnog leverage-a pomoću
faktora poslovnog leverage-a, koji se može
izračunati stavljanjem u odnos marže pokrića
i poslovnog dobitka. Mada, poznavanje dejstva finansijskog leverage-a je veoma bitno
sa stanovišta komponovanja ciljne strukture
kapitala svakog konkretnog preduzeća. Komponovanje strukture kapitala neposredno je
uslovljeno intenzitetom dejstva poslovnog leverage-a kao i pozicijom donje granice rentabilnosti. Zbog toga se i smatra da je poslovni
rizik najznačajniji faktor strukture kapitala, i,
što god je veći poslovni rizik preduzeća, to se
optimalna struktura kapitala sve više pomera
ka sopstvenom kapitalu, a manje prema pozajmljenom kapitalu i obrnuto.
Likewise, it should also be noted that
for any sales volume it is theoretically possible
to determine the magnitude of business leverage by a business leverage factor, which can be
calculated by comparing coverage margin and
trading profit. Although, being familiar with
the effects of financial leverage is very important from the point of view of composing the
target capital structure of each specific company. Composing capital structure is directly
conditioned by the intensity of effects of business leverage as well as by the position of profitability threshold. That is why business risk is
regarded as the most important factor of capital
structure, and, as the business risk of the company is increased, the optimal capital structure
is shifted towards own capital and less towards
debt capital and vice versa.
Finansijski rizik (leverage)
Financial risk (leverage)
Finansijski rizik (leverage) predstavlja rizik ostvarenja bruto dobitka u preduzeću. Bruto dobitak predstavlja razliku između
poslovnog dobitka i neto rashoda finansiranja
(kamata) (Vunjak, 2005). Slično fiksnim troškovima poslovanja koji determinišu stepen po-
Financial risk (leverage) represents a
risk of achieving gross profit in the company.
Gross profit is the difference between trading
profit and net financing cost (interest) (Vunjak, 2005). Similar to fixed operating costs
that determine the degree of business risk and
54
V. Starčević: RISKS OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CREDIT WORTHINESS OF A COMPANY
slovnog rizika i dovode do dejstva poslovnog
leverage-a, fiksni finansijski rashodi prouzrokuju finansijski rizik i aktiviraju dejstvo finansijskog leverage-a. Naime, ukoliko se poslovna
sredstva finansiraju delimično iz dugova, koji
imaju limitirani prinos (ugovorenu cenu), tada
se stopa prinosa na vlastita sredstva mora razlikovati od stope prinosa na ukupna sredstva.
lead to the effects of business leverage, fixed
financial costs cause the financial risk and activate the effect of financial leverage. Namely,
if the business assets are financed partly from
the debts which have limited income (contract price), then the rate of return on own
funds must differ from the rate of return on
total assets.
Razlog tome je nastojanje da stopa
prinosa na ukupna poslovna sredstva bude
veća od cene pozajmljenih sredstava (prosečne kamatne stope), koju preduzeće treba da
plati za korištenje pozajmljenih izvora finansiranja. Stopa prinosa na vlastita sredstva će
zavisiti kako od rentabilnosti ukupnih poslovnih ulaganja tako i od razlike prosečne cene
duga i stope prinosa na ukupna sredstva koja
bi trebalo da budu pozitivna. Međutim, dešava se da ova stopa bude i negativna. Prema
tome, intenzitet dejstva finansijskog leverage-a zavisi od stepena kojim su fiksni rashodi
na ime kamate pokriveni iz poslovnog dobitka, tj. dobitka pre kamate i oporezivanja.
The main reason is the tendency to ensure that the rate of return on total business
assets is higher than the cost of borrowed
funds (average interest rate), that the company should repay for the use of borrowed funds.
The rate of return on own funds will depend
both on the profitability of the total business
investment and the difference between the
average debt cost and the rate of return on total assets, which should be positive. However, such rate is occasionally negative. Thus,
the intensity of financial leverage effects is
dependant on the extent to which the fixed
expenses are covered by trading profit, i.e.
Profit prior to applying interest and taxation.
Za finansijske rashode u preduzeću karakteristično je da utiču na finansijski rizik i izazivaju finansijski leverage. Dakle, smanjenjem
finansijskih sredstava u preduzeću, smanjuje se
finansijski leverage. Obim troškova po osnovu
kamate (rashodi finansiranja) direktno zavisi od
(Vunjak, 2005): (1) strukture kapitala (dominantan tuđi kapital povlači za sobom i veće troškove
finansiranja); (2) obima autonomnih izvora (veći
izvori povlače za sobom manje troškove finansiranja); (3) racionalnog upravljanja osnovnim
i obrtnim sredstvima (smanjeno ulaganje u osnovna sredstva povlači za sobom smanjene dane
vezivanja obrtnih sredstava kao i manje troškove
finansiranja); (4) visine i vrste kamatnih stopa
(manja kamatna stopa povlači za sobom manje
troškove finansiranja) i sl.
Financial expenses of a company affect the financial risk, thus causing financial
leverage. Therefore, the reduction of financial assets in the company reduces financial
leverage. Costs arising from the interest
(cost of financing) are directly dependent on
(Vunjak, 2005): (1) equity structure (dominant loan capital entails higher costs of financing); (2) scope of autonomous sources (greater sources entail a lower cost of financing);
(3) rational management of primary and
working assets (reduced investment in primary assets implies a reduced cash conversion cycle of working assets as well as lower
financing cost); (4) level and type of interest
rate (lower interest rate implies lower financing cost) etc.
Rizik ostvarenja bruto dobitka može
se kvantitativno iskazati faktorom finansijskog leverage-a. On predstavlja količnik između poslovnog dobitka i bruto dobitka.
Risk of achieving gross profit can be
quantitatively expressed by a financial leverage factor. It represents the ratio between
trading profit and gross profit.
Svako preduzeće treba da nastoji
eliminisati dejstvo finansijskog rizika na ostvarenje bruto dobitka. Ono to može ostvariti
Every company should strive to eliminate the effect of financial risk onto the
achievement of gross profit. It can only be ac55
V. Starčević: RIZICI OD BITNOG UTICAJA NA KREDITNI BONITET PREDUZEĆA
samo pod uslovom da se finansira iz sopstvenog kapitala, kao i iz autonomnih izvora. Jer,
samo angažovanjem sopstvenog kapitala u
poslovnom procesu i izmirivanjem obaveza
o roku dospeća, preduzeće će ostvariti takve troškove finansiranja, pri čemu će njegov
bruto dobitak biti jednak poslovnom dobitku
(marža pokrića minus rashodi perioda bez
kamata).
complished if it is financed from a company’s
own equity, as well as from the autonomous
sources. Only by engaging its own equity in
the business process and the payment of liabilities in due time, the company shall achieve
such financing costs, while its gross profit will
be equal to the trading profit (coverage margin minus the expenses of the periods without
the interests).
Mehanizam dejstva finansijskog leverage-a prezentiran je u tabeli 2. Iz navedenog primera se vidi da u preduzeću nema
finansijskog rizika, zato što je poslovni dobitak jednak bruto dobitku ( 500.000 $). To
dalje znači da menadžment posmatranog
preduzeća neto rashode finansiranja svodi
na nulu, odnosno sa ostvarenom kamatom
iz potraživanja u celini pokriva nastale kamate po obavezama za pozajmljena sredstva (aktivne kamate jednake su pasivnim
kamatama).
The mechanism of financial leverage
effect is presented in Table 2. The following
example shows the absence of a financial
risk in the company, because the trading
profit is equal to gross profit ($500,000).
This also implies that the management of
the company observed reduces net financing expenses to zero, i.e. the interest earned
from the claims completely covers the interest incurred on obligations for borrowed
funds (active interests are equal to passive
interest).
Tabela 2
Utvrđivanje finansijskog leverage-a
(Vunjak, 2005)
Table 2
Determining financial leverage
(Vunjak, 2005)
Utvrđivanje finansijskog leverage-a
Determining financial leverage
Redni broj
No.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
7.
8.
9.
10.
56
Elementi
Elements
Prihodi od prodaje
Sales income
Varijabilni rashodi
Variable expenses
Marža pokrića (1-2)
Coverage margin (1-2)
Rashodi perioda (Am+Ft) bez kamata
Expenses for the periods without interests
Neto rashodi finansiranja (kamate)
Net financing expenses (interests)
Porezi na dobit preduzeća
Income taxes of a company
Poslovni dobitak (3-4)
Trading profit (3-4)
Bruto dobitak ( 7-5)
Gross profit ( 7-5)
Neto dobitak (8-6)
Net profit (8-6)
Finansijski leverage (7:8)
Financial leverage (7:8)
Iznos u 000 $
Amount in 000 $
4.000
2.500
1.500
1.000
0
200
500
500
300
1
V. Starčević: RISKS OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CREDIT WORTHINESS OF A COMPANY
U praksi je izuzetno teško izbeći neto
rashode finansiranja, pa je stoga težnja svakog
menadžmenta u preduzeću da ih svede na minimum i time umanji faktor finansijskog rizika
(leverage-a). Povećanjem poslovnog dobitka,
smanjuje se rizik ostvarenja bruto dobitka, a,
da bi preduzeće povećalo svoj poslovni dobitak, neophodno je povećati maržu pokrića, uz
smanjenje rashoda perioda bez kamate. Dakle,
preduzeće treba da, s jedne strane, utiče na povećanje prihoda od prodaje, uz smanjenje varijabilnih rashoda, a, sa druge strane, da utiče na
smanjenje fiksnih troškova, relativno fiksnih
troškova koji su sadržani u prodatim proizvodima, kao i samih troškova prodaje.
In practice, it is extremely difficult to
avoid net financing expenses. Therefore, the
aspiration of a company’s management is to
minimize them, thus reducing financial risk
factor (leverage). Increasing business profits reduces the risk of achieving gross profit,
and increase the company’s trading profit, it
is necessary to increase the coverage margin,
while reducing expenses of the periods with
no interest. Therefore, the company should,
on increase sales profit while reducing variable expenses, and, on the other hand, reduce
fixed costs, relatively fixed costs that are included in products sold, as well as the sheer
cost of sales.
Na kraju se može zaključiti da, ukoliko je struktura sredstava preduzeća takva da
dominiraju osnovna sredstva, tada su u njemu
prisutni visoki fiksni rashodi (rashodi perioda
bez kamate); zbog visoke amortizacije, ostvaren je nizak poslovni dobitak i izražen finansijski rizik. Finansijski rizik (leverage) je u
tom slučaju moguće umanjiti samo pomeranjem strukture kapitala u korist sopstvenog,
čime bi se smanjila kamata na pozajmljeni kapital, odnosno troškovi finansiranja, a, samim
tim, bi se približio nivo bruto dobitka poslovnom dobitku.
Finally, it can be concluded that if
the structure of company’s assets is such that
the fixed assets are dominant, then high fixed
costs (expenses for the periods without interest) are present within such company; due to
high amortization, there has been a low trading profit and severe financial risk. In such
case, financial risk (leverage) can be reduced
only by changing the structure of the capital
in favour of a company’s own capital, which
would reduce the interest on borrowed capital
and the cost of funding, thus bringing the level of gross profit closer to trading profit.
Složeni rizik (leverage)
Compound risk (leverage)
Na osnovu prethodno izloženog, da
se zaključiti da poslovni i finansijski leverage
imaju isti pravac delovanja. Dok poslovni leverage determiniše odnos procentualnog povećanja poslovnog dobitka prema procentualnom povećanju obima prodaje, to finansijski
leverage opredeljuje odnos procentualnog
povećanja neto dobitka prema procentualnom
povećanju poslovnog dobitka, ‘’očigledno je
da se dejstvo jednog i drugog reflektuje, u
krajnjoj instanci, na stopu prinosa na sopstvena sredstva s obzirom da ona rezultira iz relativnog odnosa neto dobitka prema sopstvenom kapitalu’’(Krasulja, Ivanišević, 2000).
On the basis of the above, it can be
concluded that the business and financial
leverage have the same course of action.
While business leverage determines the ratio
of the percentage increase in trading profit to
the percentage of increase in sales volume,
the financial leverage determines the ratio between the percentage increase in net income
and the percentage of increase in trading profit. ‘’It is obvious that the effect of both is ultimately reflected, onto the rate of return on
own assets since such rate results from the
relative ratio of net income to own equity’’
(Krasulja, Ivanišević, 2000).
S obzirom na to da se dejstvo ova dva
leverage-a kumulira, dobija se složeni ili kom-
Since the effect of these two leverages
is accumulated, it results in a compound or
57
V. Starčević: RIZICI OD BITNOG UTICAJA NA KREDITNI BONITET PREDUZEĆA
binovani leverage koji odražava izloženost
preduzeća ukupnom ili totalnom riziku, čime
se neizvesnost ostvarenja budućih neto dobitaka i prinosa na sopstvena sredstva dovodi
u direktnu međuzavisnost sa mogućim variranjem obima i prihoda od prodaje. Svakako
treba istaći da se dejstvo složenog leverage-a
treba posmatrati i analizirati u granicama očekivanih oscilacija prema donjoj granici rentabiliteta. To, pogotovo, kod preduzeća koja
imaju izraženo visoko učešće fiksnih troškova
u ukupnim troškovima poslovanja i u kojima
visok faktor poslovnog leverage-a obezbeđuje srazmerno velike promene poslovnog
dobitka na bazi relativno malih oscilacija u
obimu prodaje.
combined leverage that reflects the company’s exposure to overall or total risk, which
puts the uncertainty of future net profits’ realization and return on own equity in a direct
correlation with possible variation of both
sales volume and sales income. It should be
pointed out that the effect of compound leverage should be viewed and analysed within the
expected fluctuations towards the profitability threshold, particularly in companies that
have a high proportion of fixed costs in the
total cost of business operations and in which
a high factor of business leverage provides for
proportionally large changes in trading profit
based on a relatively small fluctuations in the
sales volume.
Uslovi povećane dinamike poslovnog rezultata, stimuliraju preduzeća da daljim povećanjem obima utiču na nesrazmerno povećanje poslovnog dobitka, da pri tome
ne zaziru od daljeg pozajmljivanja sredstava,
usled nedostatka sopstvenih, čime intenziviraju finansijski rizik i dejstvo finansijskog
leverage-a na neto dobitak i stopu prinosa na
sopstvena sredstva. Zbog toga je neophodno
rešiti problem maksimiranja rentabilnosti, sa
jedne strane, a da pri tome preduzeće ostane u
granicama zdrave likvidnosti i solventnosti,
sa druge strane.
Increased dynamics’ conditions of
the business results, stimulate companies to
further increase the volume, thus influencing
the disproportionate increase in trading profit,
while not hesitating from further borrowing
of funds due to lack of their own, thereby intensifying the financial risk and the effect of
financial leverage onto net profit and return
rate on their own funds. Therefore, it is necessary to resolve the problem of maximizing
the profitability while at the same time keeping the company within the limits of healthy
liquidity and solvency.
Rizik od insolventnosti nalaže veliku
opreznost i veštinu prilikom kombinovanja dejstva poslovnog i finansijskog leverage-a. Jer,
ukoliko je donja granica rentabilnosti locirana
visoko i bliža gornjoj granici fizičkog kapaciteta preduzeća, a pri tome je područje poslovnog
dobitka relativno usko, dok obim poslovne aktivnosti ispoljava osetne znake nestabilnosti, iz
različitih razloga, tada nije baš preporučljivo pri
visokom faktoru poslovnog leverage-a igrati na
visok faktor finansijskog leverage-a.
The insolvency risk requires great care
and skill in combining the effects of business
and financial leverage. Because, if the profitability threshold is located higher and closer
to the upper limit of the physical capacity of
the company, with the area of business profit
relatively narrow, while the volume of business activity manifests considerable signs of
instability, for various reasons, it is not recommended to rely at a high level of financial
leverage at a high level of business leverage.
Kako složeni rizik (leverage) predstavlja
neizvesnost pri ostvarivanju bruto dobitka, neto
dobitka, kao i prinosa na sopstveni kapital, za
izračunavanje faktora složenog leverage-a neophodno je imati podatke o visini marže pokrića,
poslovnog dobitka, bruto dobitka, faktora poslovnog leverage-a i faktora finansijskog leverage-a.
Since compound risk (leverage) represents
the uncertainty in the realization of gross profit, net
profit and return on own equity, it is necessary to
have the information on the level of coverage margin, trading profit, gross profit, business leverage
factors and financial leverage factors in order to
calculate the compound leverage factor.
58
V. Starčević: RISKS OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CREDIT WORTHINESS OF A COMPANY
Da bismo izračunali faktor finansijskog
leverage-a, potrebno je, primera radi, posmatrati
dva preduzeća “X” i “Y”, sa različitim planskim
bilansima uspeha, a kao što se vidi u tabeli 3.
To calculate the financial leverage factor, for example, it is possible to observe two
companies “X” and “Y”, with various income
statements, as shown in Table 3
Tabela 3
Utvrđivanje složenog leverage-a
(Vunjak, 2005)
Table 3
Determining compound leverage
(Vunjak, 2005)
Utvrđivanje složenog leverage-a
Determining compound leverage
Redni broj
No.
1.
2.
3.
4.
5.
6.
Preduzeće ( u 000 $)
Company (in $ 000)
“X”
“Y”
Elementi
Marža pokrića (prihodi od prodaje minus varijabilni rashodi, ili Pp-Vr)
Coverage margin (sales income minus variable expenses)
Poslovni dobitak (marža pokrića minus rashodi perioda bez kamata, ili
Mp-Rpk)
Trading profit (coverage margin minus Expenses for the periods without interests)
Bruto dobitak (poslovni dobitak minus neto rashodi finansiranja, ili
Pdb-Nrf)
Gross profit (trading profit minus net financing expenses)
Faktor poslovnog leverage-a (1/2 ili Mp/Pdb)
Business leverage factor (1/2)
Faktor finansijskog leverage-a ( 2/3 ili Pdb/Bdp)
Financial leverage factor (2/3)
Faktor složenog leverage-a (1/3 ili Pl x Fl) (4x5)
Compound leverage factor (1/3) (4x5)
480
600
240
150
80
100
2,0
4,0
3,0
1,5
6,0
6,0
Iz prezentiranog primera se vidi da
prvo preduzeće “X” ima nizak faktor poslovnog leverage-a, jer mu je struktura sredstava
pomerena ka obrtnim sredstvima, a što je uzrokovalo nisku amortizaciju, niske rashode perioda, kao i mogućnost pomeranja strukture kapitala ka pozajmljenim izvorima i prisustva u
većem stepenu faktora finansijskog leverage-a.
The aforementioned examples demonstrate that the first company ‘’X’’ has a low factor
of business leverage, because the structure of its
assets is shifted towards working capital, which
caused low level amortization, low expenses for
the periods, as well as the ability to shift the capital structure towards the borrowed sources and the
greater presence of the financial leverage factor.
Preduzeće “Y” ima izražen faktor poslovnog leverage-a, jer mu u strukturi sredstava dominiraju osnovna sredstva praćena
visokom amortizacijom, kao i rashodima perioda. Ovo preduzeće bi trebalo smanjiti rashode finansiranja pomeranjem strukture kapitala u korist sopstvenog kapitala. Nizak nivo
finansijskog leverage-a, kod ovog preduzeća,
kompenzira visok nivo poslovnog leverage-a.
The company “Y” is characterised by a
distinguished business leverage factor, since its
structure of assets is dominated by primary assets
associated with high amortization as well as with
expenses for the periods. This company should
reduce financing expenses by shifting the capital
structure in favour of its own equity. Low level of
financial leverage with this company is compensated by a high level of business leverage.
Menadžment preduzeća često pravi
greške kada strategiju finansiranja postavlja
na temeljima privremenog povećanja prihoda
Management of companies often make
mistakes when basing their financing strategy
on the basis of temporary increase in sales prof59
V. Starčević: RIZICI OD BITNOG UTICAJA NA KREDITNI BONITET PREDUZEĆA
od prodaje u uslovima nepromenjenih pariteta
između prodajnih i nabavnih cena. Povećanje
prihoda od prodaje značajno povećava bruto
dobit preduzeća, stopu prinosa na sopstveni
kapital i stimuliše preduzeća da pomera strukturu kapitala ka tuđem kapitalu. Dovoljno je
da se u relativno malom procentu smanje prihodi od prodaje pa da preduzeće uđe u zonu
gubitka, uz nemogućnost brzog supstituisanja
tuđeg (pozajmljenog) u sopstveni kapital.
it in terms of unchanged parities between sales
and purchase prices. Increase of sales profit significantly increases gross profit of a company,
the rate of return on its own equity and encourages companies to shift the structure of capital
towards external capital. A relatively small percentage reduction of sales income is sufficient
for the company to enter the loss zone, with the
inability of rapidly substituting someone else’s
(borrowed) equity into its own equity.
Umanjenjem kreditnog boniteta preduzeće gubi dosadašnje poverioce (koji teže
naplatiti svoje potraživanje), preduzeće veoma teško pozajmljuje novi tuđi kapital radi
saniranja stanja nelikvidnosti. Napred izneti argumenti ukazuju da je za menadžment
preduzeća najbolje da teži zadržati faktor
složenog leverage-a na što nižem nivou
(Vunjak, 2005).
Reducing the credit rating of a company
causes the company to lose its current creditors
(which tend to collect their claims) and it is very
difficult for such company to borrow a new loan
capital in order to repair the conditions of insolvency. The aforementioned arguments suggest that the
best option for the management of a company is to
strive to maintain the compound leverage factor on
the lowest level possible (Vunjak, 2005).
ZAKLJUČAK
CONCLUSION
Spoznaja o kreditnom bonitetu preduzeća interesovanje je poslovne prakse,
jer tržišna ekonomija ima za imenantnost
favorizovanje preduzeća sa dobrim kreditnim bonitetom. Posebno se daje značaj oceni kreditne sposobnosti preduzeća, odnosno
oceni njegove sposobnosti i spremnosti da
vrati kredit pod uslovima utvrđenim u ugovoru sa bankom. Oba navedena svojstva
upravo i proističu iz njegovog kreditnog
boniteta. Zbog toga, svrha ocene kreditne
sposobnosti preduzeća jeste otkrivanje faktora kreditnog rizika, merenje rizika ili neplaćanja, odnosno nevraćanja kredita koji
treba da mu se odobri. U tu svrhu najčešće
se koristi tzv. metoda 5C koja je obrađena
u radu, a ona uključuje analizu pet ključnih
faktora kreditnog rizika (kapacitet, karakter, kapital, zalogu, kondiciju) koji mogu
značajno uticati da poslovanje preduzeća u
budućnosti bude nedovoljno rentabilno ili
nerentabilno.
Knowledge of the credit worthiness
of a company’s represents the interest of a
business practice, since the market economy
favours companies with solid credit worthiness. Particular importance is given to assessing the credit worthiness of a company and
assessing their ability and willingness to repay the loan under the conditions specified
in the contract with the bank. Both of these
properties exactly arise from the company’s
credit worthiness. Therefore, the purpose of
credit scoring of companies is to determine
the credit risk factors, measure such risk or
default, i.e. non-repayment of the loan which
has to be approved. For that purpose, the most
commonly used method is so-called 5C method, already covered in this paper, and which
includes the analysis of five key credit risk
factors (capacity, character, capital, collateral,
conditions) which may significantly affect the
operations of a company in the future, making
it unprofitable or not profitable enough.
Takođe, ocena kreditnog boniteta često se kombinuje sa različitim tehnikama i
modelima predviđanja radi utvrđivanja finan-
Likewise, credit worthiness score is often combined with a variety of techniques and
prediction models to determine financial diffi-
60
V. Starčević: RISKS OF SIGNIFICANT IMPACT ON THE CREDIT WORTHINESS OF A COMPANY
sijskih teškoća preduzeća, razmere kreditnog
rizika i identifikacije rizika koji imaju direktan uticaj na kreditni bonitet preduzeća.
culties of a company, the extent of credit risk
and the identification of risks that have a direct
impact on the credit worthiness of a company.
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62
POSLOVNE FINANSIJE I BANKARSTVO - BUSINESS FINANCE AND BANKING
MJERENJE RIZIKA KREDITNOG PORTFOLIJA
MEASUREMENT OF LOAN PORTFOLIO RISK
Doc. dr Slobodan Subotić*
*Univerzitet u Istočnom Sarajevu, Saobraćajni fakultet Doboj
University of East Sarajevo, Faculty of Transport and Traffic Engineering Doboj
Pregledni članak
doi 10.7251/OIK1301006S, UDK 336.71: [005.52:005.334
Review paper
REZIME
SUMMARY
Razlozi lošeg poslovanja neke banke
mogu biti mnogobrojni. Ključni razlog ozbiljnih
problema nalazi se u loše postavljenim kreditnim standardima pri ocjeni kreditne sposobnosti budućih dužnika, lošem upravljanju kreditnim portfolijom, kao i drugim okolnostima koje
dovode do pogoršanja kreditnog rejtinga komitenta. Dakle, ključni razlog lošeg poslovanja
banke jeste loše upravljanje kreditnim rizikom.
Cilj upravljanja kreditnim rizikom jeste maksimiziranje rizikom korigovane stope prinosa na
kapital, a da pri tome izloženost kreditnom riziku ostane u prihvatljivim granicama. Sredinom
90-ih godina prošlog vijeka komercijalne i investicione banke počinju primjenjivati VaR metodologiju za mjerenje kreditnog rizika. U radu su
u kratkim crtama objašnjeni VaR koncept i VaR
modeli koji se primjenjuju pri mjerenju (kvantifikovanju) rizika kreditnog portfolija. Posebna pažnja je posvećena CreditMetrics modelu,
ukazano je na njegove osnovne karakteristike,
te na konkretnom primjeru prezentiran i objašnjen način vrednovanja kreditnog portfolija primjenom ovog modela.
The reasons for a bank’s poor performance may be various. The key reason
of serious problems lies in poorly set credit
standards related to the assessment of future
debtors’ credit rating, poor loan portfolio
management, as well as other circumstances
leading to the deterioration of the customer’s
credit rating. Therefore, the key reason for
poor performance of a bank is its poor risk
management. The goal of credit risk management is to maximize risk-adjusted return on
capital, while simultaneously maintaining the
exposure to credit risk within acceptable limits. In the mid 90s of the 20th century, commercial and investment banks began to implement VaR methodology in order to measure
credit risk. This paper briefly explains the
VaR concept and VaR models applied in the
measurement (quantification) of loan portfolio risk. Special attention was paid to CreditMetrics model, indicating its main features,
while presenting and explaining the evaluation of a loan portfolio by applying this model
on a specific example.
Ključne riječi: rizik kreditnog portfolija, VaR
koncept, CaR koncept, CreditMetrics model,
tranziciona matrica.
Keywords: Loan portfolio risk, VaR concept,
CaR concept, CreditMetrics model, Transition
matrix.
UVOD
INTRODUCTION
Upravljanje bankarskim rizicima ima
za cilj optimiziranje odnosa rizika i prinosa. U
fokusu bankarskih rizika jeste upravljanje kreditnim i tržišnim rizicima. Ovi rizici presudno
utiču na solventnost bankarskih institucija, po-
Management of bank risks aims to
optimize risk and income. The focus of the
bank risk is to manage credit risks and market
risks. These risks have a crucial impact on the
solvency of banking institutions, particularly
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S. Subotić: MJERENJE RIZIKA KREDITNOG PORTFOLIJA
sebno u uslovima pojačane konkurencije kako
na novčanom tržištu tako i na tržištu kapitala.
“Kreditni rizik nastaje u uslovima kada potraživanja ne mogu biti relizovana na dan njihovog
dospijeća, po punoj knjigovodstvenoj vrijednosti. Kreditni rizik pokazuje trajnu ili trenutnu
nelikvidnost dužnika i njegovu nesposobnost da
u dogovorenom roku izmiri obaveze. Kreditni
rizik kao oblik rizika uslovljen je, u prvom redu,
neizvjesnim okolnostima vezanim za poslovanje
klijenta banke. Kreditni rizik predstavlja osnovni bankarski rizik i odnosi se na kreditne transakcije ili investicije u obveznice koje neće biti
isplaćene o roku njihovog dospijeća” (Vunjak,
2006). U širem smislu, kreditni rizik se odnosi i
na rizik pada kreditnog rejtinga dužnika, što sa
sobom nosi pad tržišne vrijednosti potraživanja
i, po tom osnovu, gubitak za kreditora. Za veliki
broj banaka krediti su najveći i najznačajni vid
plasmana sredstava a, samim tim, i veliki izvor
rizičnog poslovanja.
in terms of increased competition, both in the
money market and the capital market. “Credit
risk appears when the claims cannot be collected in their full value, on their due date.
Credit risk demonstrates the ongoing or current insolvency of the debtor and its inability
to repay its liabilities within the agreed time.
In the first place, credit risk was established
as one of the risk forms, by uncertain circumstances with regards to the bank’s client and
its business. Credit risk is the basic banking
risk, and it is related to credit transactions or
investments into bonds that will not be paid on
their due date’’ (Vunjak , 2006). In a broader
sense, credit risk refers to the risk of debtor’s
credit rating decrease, which entails lower
market value of claims, thus resulting in loss
to the creditor. For many banks, loans are the
largest and most important form of placement
of funds, and therefore represent a vast source
of risk assets.
Upravljanje kreditnim rizikom zahtijeva nezavisnu i neprekidnu provjeru procedura i politike, te identifikaciju, mjerenje,
praćenje i kontrolu rizika. Mjerenje kreditnog
rizika je izračunavanje visine gubitka koji nastaje djelovanjem neizvjesnih i nepovoljnih
budućih događaja. Praćenje kreditnog rizika
obuhvata aktivnosti kojima se nadzire kretanje visine rizika, dok se kontrolom provjerava
usaglašavanje poslovne prakse sa usvojenom
politikom, strategijom i definisanim limitima
za preuzimanje rizika. Mjerenjem kreditnog
rizika, kao jednom od funkcija upravljanja,
određuje se kvalitet svake pojedinačne transakcije, kao i cjelokupnog kreditnog portfolija banke, te vjerovatnoća i iznos gubitaka
koji mogu nastati zbog neizvršenja obaveza
dužnika.
Credit risk management requires constant and independent verification of procedures and policies, as well as identification,
measurement, monitoring and control of
risks. Credit risk measurement represents calculating the amount of loss caused by adverse
and uncertain future events. Credit risk monitoring includes activities used for monitoring
movement of risk level, whereas the control
is used to check the alignment of business
practice with the adopted policy, strategy and
defined limits for risk taking. Credit risk measurement, as one of the management functions, determines not only the quality of each
individual transaction, but of the entire loan
portfolio of a bank, as well as the probability
and the amount of loss that may arise due to
failure of the debtor to perform its duties.
Najveća opasnost po banke leži u
gubicima koji nastaju u slučaju difolta (eng.
default), odnosno neizvršenja kreditnih obaveza dužnika. Maksimalni iznos gubitka za
banku, determinišu tri faktora: (1) visina izloženosti, (2) vrijednost standardne devijacije,
(3) izabrani nivo tolerancije. Mjerenje kreditnog rizika može biti kvalitativno i kvantitativno. Kvantitativno sagledavanje kredit-
The greatest danger to the banks lies
in the losses incurring in the event of default,
or failure of the debtor to repay its liabilities.
The maximum amount of loss to the bank is
determined by the following three factors:
(1) level of loss exposure, (2) value of standard deviation, (3) selected tolerance level.
Credit risk measurement can be performed
both in qualitative and quantitative terms.
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S. Subotić: MEASUREMENT OF LOAN PORTFOLIO RISK
nih rizika ima sve veću primjenu, a sastoji se
u izračunavanju prosječnog iznosa gubitka i
stope disperzije gubitka oko srednje vrijednosti. Osnovno statističko mjerilo disperzije oko
srednje vrijednosti jeste standardna devijacija1
kao mjerilo volatilnosti2.
Quantitative measurement of credit risk has been
increasingly used and consists of calculating the
average amount of loss and the rate of loss dispersion around the mean. The basic statistical measure of dispersion around the mean is the standard deviation1 used as a measure of volatility2.
VaR MODELI KREDITNOG PORTFOLIJA
VaR MODEL OF CREDIT PORTFOLIO
Pod pojmom kreditnog portfolija
banke treba podrazumijevati grupu kredita ili sve kredite u aktivi banke koje je menadžment banke klasifikovao (struktuirao).
Primjera radi, krediti mogu biti: komercijalni,
investicioni, hipotekarni, agrarni, stambeni,
potrošački, exportno-importni i sl. Kreditni
portfolio banke se može posmatrati i sa šireg
aspekta (kompleksni portfolio), pri čemu on
obuhvata ne samo kredite već i ostale izvore sredstava u pasivi bilansa stanja banke. Na
ovaj način se uspostavlja ravnoteža između
kredita (plasmana) i izvora sredstava banke.
Ključni ciljevi kreditnog portfolija odnose se
na: (1) obim portfolija, (2) strukturu portfolija, (3) kreditne usluge, (4) naplatu kredita,
(5) cijenu kredita, (6) ostvareni profit (dobit)
(Vunjak, 2008).
The term bank loan portfolio includes
a group of loans or all the loans in bank assets
that the bank’s management has classified
(structured). For example, the type of loans
may vary: commercial, investment, mortgage, agricultural, residential, consumer, export-import, etc. Bank’s loan portfolio can be
viewed from a broader point of view (complex
portfolio), in which case it includes not only
loans, but also other sources of funding in the
liabilities of a bank’s balance sheet. That way,
a balance between loans (investments) and
sources of bank funds is established. The key
objectives of the loan portfolio are as follows:
(1) scope of the portfolio, (2) structure of the
portfolio, (3) credit services, (4) loan payment, (5) loan cost, (6) earned profit (gain)
(Vunjak, 2008).
Sredinom 80-ih godina prošlog vijeka razvijaju se modeli zasnovani na konceptu
raspodjele vjerovatnoće gubitka, odnosno promjene vrijednosti portfolija. Iako su prvenstveno razvijeni za potrebe mjerenja tržišnog
rizika, ovi modeli su se počeli sredinom 90-ih
godina koristiti za mjerenje kreditnog rizika.
Razvijen je VaR (eng. Value at Risk) koncept
kao opšta mjera ekonomoskog gubitka koji
može odgovarati riziku pojedinačnih pozicija i ukupnom riziku portfolija. Ovaj koncept,
kao takav, i danas dominira u oblasti mjerenja
svih vrsta rizika velikih svjetskih banaka. Mjerenje rizika primjenom VaR metodologije koriste najčešće komercijalne i investicione banke
Models based on the concept of
probability distribution of the loss or the
change of the portfolio value appeared in
the mid-80s of the 20th century. Although
primarily developed for measuring market risk, these models began to be used for
credit risk measurement in the mid 90’s.
VaR (Value at Risk) concept was developed
as a general measure of economic loss that
may correspond to the risk of individual
positions and overall portfolio risk. This
concept, as such, continues to dominate the
field of all-risk measurement of large global
banks. Measuring risk using VaR methodology is most used by commercial and invest-
1 Srednja vrijednsot neke stohastičke varijable (х) se izračunava po formuli: Е(х)=( хi)/n , pri čemu je Е(х) očekivana (srednja) vrijednost stohastičke varijable.Varijansa ( ²) za
seriju vrijednosti (x) dobija se po formuli: ²=[ хi–Е(х)]²/n,
dok je standardna devijacija jednaka kvadratnom korijenu
varijanse: = ².
2 Volatilnost se može definisati kao kolebljivost cijena kredita i hartija od vrijednosti.
1 Mean value between a stochastic variable (x) is calculated by the formula: Е(х)=( хi)/n, where E(x) is the expected (mean) value of the stochastic variable. Variance
( ²) for a series of values (x) is obtained by the formula:
²=[ хi–Е(х)]²/n, while the standard deviation equals the
square root of the variance: = ².
2 Volatility can be defined as: the volatility (hesitance) of
the loans cost and securities.
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S. Subotić: MJERENJE RIZIKA KREDITNOG PORTFOLIJA
kako zbog konceptualne jednostavnosti tako i
činjenice da VaR sintetiše u jednoj vrijednosti
moguće gubitke koji se mogu dogoditi sa definisanom vjerovatnoćom. VaR se može definisati kao “maksimalni očekivani gubitak, tokom
datog vremenskog perioda posmatranja, pod
normalnim tržišnim uslovima, uz definisani
nivo pouzdanosti” (Vujnović, 2007).
ment banks, mainly owing to the conceptual
simplicity, and the fact that VaR synthesizes
potential losses that can occur with a defined probability in a single value. VaR can
be defined as: “the maximum expected loss
over a given period of observation, under
normal market conditions, with a defined
level of reliability”. (Vujnović, 2007)
Vrijednost pod rizikom (VaR) bismo
mogli definisati i kao maksimalni mogući gubitak pri datom nivou tolerancije.3 Ovako izračunata vrijednost VaR-a podrazumijeva da bi,
u slučaju nivoa tolerancije od 2%, izračunata
vrijednost pod rizikom važila u 98% slučajeva, dok bi u 2% slučajeva, po računu vjerovatnoće, ta vrijednost bila probijena. Banka
bi u principu trebalo da sama odluči da li želi
da upravlja rizicima na bazi određenog praga
tolerancije, čija vrijednost može varirati. Međutim, nivo tolerancije je regulisan od strane
regulatornih vlasti u skladu sa prudencionom
kontrolom i supervizijom internacionalizacije poslovanja finansijskih institucija.4
Value at risk (VaR) can be defined as
the maximum possible loss at a certain tolerance level.3 Such calculated value of VaR
implies that in case of a 2% tolerance level,
the calculated value at risk would be valid in
98% of the cases, while in 2% of the cases, on
the basis of probability calculation, that value
would be exceeded. The bank should, in principle, decide for itself whether it wishes to
manage risks based on a certain threshold of
tolerance, which may vary. However, the level of tolerance is regulated by the regulatory
authorities in accordance with the prudential
control and supervision of internationalization of financial institutions business.4
Smisao kvantitativnog određenja VaR
(eng.Value at Risk) jeste da se obezbijedi adekvatan kvantitativni nivo trajnog kapitala banke, odnosno kapitala pod rizikom CaR (eng.
Capital at Rsik). Kako se CaR tretira kao krajnja
zaštita banke od nesolventnosti, suština upravljanja bankarskim rizicima svodi se na izračunavanje visine VaR-a da bi se na toj osnovi odredila adekvatna visina CaR-a. Banka ipak može
biti dovedena u stanje nesolventnosti ukoliko se
dogodi katastrofalni ili stresni gubitak koji CaR
ne može pokriti, jer je došlo do probijanja nivoa tolerancije. S obzirom na to da kapital pod
rizikom (CaR) obuhvata sve tipove rizika banke, treba ga kvantifikovati i posmatrati na nivou
banke kao cjeline, odnosno na portfolio nivou.
The purpose of quantitative determination of VaR (Value at Risk) is to provide
adequate quantitative level of a bank’s permanent capital, or Capital at Risk (CaR). As
the CaR is treated as the ultimate protection
of a bank from insolvency, the essence of
bank risk management is reduced onto calculating the amount of VaR, which is later to
be used for determining the appropriate CaR
level. The bank may still become insolvent,
in the case of a catastrophic or a stressful loss,
which CaR cannot cover since the tolerance
level has been breached. Given that Capital
at Risk (CaR) includes all types of bank risk,
it should be quantified and considered at the
level of a bank as a whole, or on a portfolio
3 Pod nivoom tolerancije se podrazumijeva vjerovatnoća da gubici probijaju matematički projektovanu granicu.
4 Bazelski komitet je 1988. propisao Bazel I sporazumom da je visina adekvatnog nivoa kapitala 8% za riziko ponderisanu aktivu.
Kasnijim revidiranjem ovog sporazuma 2004. godine plasiran je
Novi sporazum, odnosno Bazel II sporazum, kojim je propisano
da visina obaveznog kapitala bude u skladu sa rizikom dužnika na
mikro nivou.Tako su dužnici svrstani u odgovarajuće kategorije
rizika po rejting skali (rejting klase) na bazi pondera rizika.Visina
kreditnog rizika se dobije množenjem kreditne izloženosti (nominalni iznos zajma) sa ponderima rizika.
3 Tolerance level implies the probability that the losses exceed
the projected mathematical limit.
4 In 1988, Basel Committee defined Basel I Agreement stating that
the adequate level of equity is 8% for risk-weighted assets. Subsequent revision of th Agreement in 2004, resulted in the launch of a
new, Basel II Agreement, which stipulates that the amount of regulatory capital shall be in line with the debtor risk at a micro level.
That way, the debtors have been classified in the appropriate risk
categories on the basis of a rating scale (rating class), based on the
risk weight. Credit risk level is obtained by multiplying the credit
exposure (nominal amount of the loan) with the risk weights.
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S. Subotić: MEASUREMENT OF LOAN PORTFOLIO RISK
Da bi banka mogla nesmetano funkcinisati,
neophodno je međusobno uskladiti vrijednosti
VaR-a i CaR-a. Odnosno, ukoliko dođe do povećanja rizika (VaR), neophodno je i povećanje
kapitala pod rizikom (CaR) i obrnuto.
basis. In order for the bank to operate safely
it is necessary to mutually adjust the value of
both VaR and CaR. That is, if there is an increase in risk (VaR), it is necessary to increase
capital at risk (CaR) and vice versa.
Modeli kreditnog rizika koriste pretpostavke i finansijske teorije u cilju procjene
parametara gubitaka na osnovu male količine
posmatranih podataka. Pristupi koji se koriste
kao baza svih praktičnih modela kreditnog rizika su: model kovarijanse, model zasnovan
na aktuarskom pristupu i modeli zasnovani
na simulaciji. Osnovna razlika između ovih
modela je pristup karakterizaciji korelacija.
Svaki od ovih modela je integrisan u softverski paket kreiran u različitim kompanijama
(Vujnović, 2007). Iako se po pristupu razlikuju, VaR modeli imaju određeni broj istih
prednosti i ograničenja. Svaki pristup uzima
u obzir širok spektar faktora rizika (kamatne
stope, devizni kursevi, terminske cijene i dr.).
Nedostatak svakog od pristupa je u tome što
pretpostavlja da će istorijski odnosi između
faktora rizika biti ponovljeni u budućnosti.
Zajedničko za sve modele kreditnog rizika
jeste da koriste pretpostavke i finansijske teorije u cilju procjene parametara gubitaka na
osnovu male količine raspoloživih podataka.
VaR modeli kreditnog portfolija primjenjivi u
praksi su: (1) Model kovarijansi, (2) CreditMetrics model, (3) McKinsey model, (4) CreditRisk metodologija.
Credit risk models utilize assumptions
and financial theories in order to estimate the
parameters of losses based on a minor amount
of observed data. The approaches used as the
base for all practical models of credit risk are as
follows: covariance model, actuarial approach
based model and simulation-based model. The
main difference between these models is the
approach to the characterization of correlations. Each of these models has been integrated into a software package created in different
companies (Vujnović, 2007). Although different in their approach, VaR models share a
certain number of advantages and limitations.
Each approach takes into account a wide range
of risk factors (interest rates, foreign exchange
rates, forward prices, etc.). The lack of each
of the approaches is that they assume that the
historical relationship between the risk factors
shall be repeated in the future. Typical to all
models of credit risk is to use assumptions and
financial theories in order to estimate the loss
parameters based on a limited amount of data
available. VaR Credit portfolio models applicable in practice are as follows: (1) Covariance
model, (2) CreditMetrics model, (3) McKinsey
model, (4) CreditRisk methodology.
Model kovarijansi, poznat i kao “Markovitz” model, je model kod koga su korelacije definisane kao korelacije neizvršenja obaveza. S obzirom na to da se primjenjuje pri
izračunavanju visine kreditnog rizika, potrebno je izračunati i rezultate srednje vrijednosti.
Koristi se za sve vrste kreditne izloženosti i
formuliše se u četiri koraka: (1) definisanje
očekivanog gubitka (EL) i neočekivanog gubitka (UL) portfolija, (2) procjena korelacije
neizvršenja obaveza, (3) procjena sveobuhvatne distribucije vjerovatnoća portfolija na
osnovu definisanih vrijednosti (EL) i (UL),
(4) alokacija kapitala cjelokupnog portfolija
na individualne kredite koristeći koncept doprinosa neočekivanih gubitaka (UL).
Covariance model, also known as
“Markowitz’’ model, is a model in which the
correlations are defined as default correlations. Since it is applied in the calculation of
the amount of credit risk, the results of the
mean value should be calculated as well. It
is used for all types of credit exposure and is
formulated with four steps: (1) Defining the
expected loss (EL) and unexpected loss (UL)
of portfolio, (2) Evaluation of the default correlation, (3) Evaluation of a comprehensive
probability distribution of portfolio based on
defined values (EL) and (UL), (4) Allocation
of the overall portfolio capital onto individual
loans using the concept of unexpected losses
(UL) contribution.
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S. Subotić: MJERENJE RIZIKA KREDITNOG PORTFOLIJA
CreditMetrics model je prvi put publikovan aprila 1997. godine kao model na osnovu kojeg se može mjeriti kreditni rizik širokog
niza finansijskih instrumenata i njihovih portfolija, polazeći pri tome od portfolio teorije i VaR
metodologije. Ovaj model je publikovala banka
J.P. Morgan, a u saradnji sa Bank of America,
BZW, Deutsche Morgan Grenfell, Swiss bank
Corporation, Union bank of Switzerland i KMW
Corporation. Iako se zasniva na modelu koji je
J.P. Morgan razvio za mjerenje, upravljanje i
kontrolu tržišnog rizika, CreditMetrics model
se znatno razlikuje od ovog modela. Naime,
ovaj model predstavlja dobru metodologiju za
mjerenje rizika neizvršenja obaveza. Za razliku od tržišnih rizika, koji na osnovu podataka
o dnevnim cijenama omogućavaju neposrednu
kalkulaciju VaR-a, ova metodologija konstruiše
hipotetičku tržišnu vrijednost i volatilnost vrijednosti na osnovu promjene kreditnog rejtinga koji se ne mogu direktno posmatrati. Treba
istaći, da su modeli za kvantitativno mjerenje
tržišnih vrijednosti bankarskih kredita nastali
znatno kasnije od modela za mjerenje vrijednosti tržišnih finansijskih instrumenata (npr.
obveznica). Razlog ovome je što bankarski krediti ne predstavljaju tržišne instrumente, osim u
izuzetnim slučajevima. Ovaj problem je rješen
na način da su bankarski krediti graduirani na
skali kreditnih rejtinga od strane poznatih rejting agencija. U pitanju su rejtinzi kompanija,
uključujući promjene kreditnih rejtinga bilo po
osnovu emitovanih obveznica, ili kredita koje
su kompanije dobile od banaka.
CreditMetrics model was first published in April in 1997, as a model which can
be used for measurement of the credit risk of a
wide range of financial instruments and their
portfolios, thereby starting with portfolio theory and VaR methodology. This model was
published by the J.P. Morgan bank, in collaboration with Bank of America, BZW, Deutsche
Morgan Grenfell, Swiss Bank Corporation,
Union Bank of Switzerland and KMW Corporation. Although based on a model which J.P.
Morgan developed to measure, manage and
control the market risk, CreditMetrics model
differs significantly from such model. In fact,
this model represents a good methodology
for measuring the risk of default. Contrary to
market risks, which allow direct calculation
of VaR on the basis of the data on daily prices, this methodology constructs a hypothetical market value and volatility of value based
on changes in credit ratings that cannot be
directly observed. It should be noted that the
models for quantitative measurement of the
bank loans’ market value incurred much later
than the models for measuring the market value of financial instruments (e.g. bonds). The
main reason is that bank loans are not market-based instruments, apart from exceptional
cases. Such problem was solved by grading
bank loans on a credit rating scale by wellknown rating agencies, with regards to ratings
of companies, including credit ratings changes, either on the basis of issued bonds or loans
that companies received from banks.
McKinsey model je komplementaran sa
CreditMetrics metodologijom, a osnovni koncept je tranziciona matrica za pojedinu zemlju.
Ovaj model je multifaktorski, a koristi se za
simulaciju zajedničke uslovne distribucije neizvršenja obaveza i vjerovatnoće migracije za
različite rejting klase kako u različitim privrednim granama tako i za svaku zemlju. Pri tome
se uzima u obzir vrijednost makroekonomskih
faktora. S obzirom na to da je ekonomija pod
velikim uticajem makroekonomskih faktora,
McKinsey model je sredstvo za povezivanje
svih makroekonomskih faktora sa neizvršenjem obaveza i promjenjivim vjerovatnoćama.
McKinsey model is complementary
to the CreditMetrics methodology, with the
basic concept being the transition matrix for
a country. This model is multifactorial and
is used to simulate joint conditional distribution of default and migration probability for
different rating classes, both in a variety of
industries and for each country. At the same
time, the value of macroeconomic factors is
taken into account. Given that the economy is
heavily influenced by macroeconomic factors,
McKinsey model is an instrument to connect
all the macroeconomic factors with default
and variable probabilities. During operation-
68
S. Subotić: MEASUREMENT OF LOAN PORTFOLIO RISK
Prilikom operacionalizacije, ovaj model koristi
makroekonomske pokazatelje kao što su: stopa
nezaposlenosti, stopa rasta bruto domaćeg proizvoda, nivo dugoročnih kamatnih stopa, devizni kursevi, visina kamatnih stopa na štednju i
sl. Ukoliko se raspolaže navedenim podacima,
ovaj model se može, bez izuzetka, primijeniti
na svaku zemlju, sektor ili klasu dužnika, koji
reaguju različito kroz poslovne cikluse.
alization, this model uses macro-economic
indicators such as: unemployment rate, gross
domestic product growth rate, level of longterm interest rates, foreign exchange rates,
level of interest rates on savings accounts, etc.
If such data is available, the model can be applied without exception to any country, sector
or class of debtors, who respond differently
throughout business cycles.
CreditRisk metodologija operiše samo
sa rizikom neizvršenja obaveza, dok zanemaruje rizik promjene kreditnog rejtinga. Model
polazi od pretpostavke da je vjerovatnoća neizvršenja obaveza (PD) u posmatranom periodu ista kao u svakom drugom periodu, te da
je (PD) po jednom dužniku mala, a broj neizvršenja obaveza u jednom periodu nije u bilo
kakvoj vezi sa brojem neizvršenja obaveza u
drugom periodu. Takođe, ne pravi pretpostavke oko razloga neizvršenja obaveza.
CreditRisk methodology operates
only with the risk of default, while neglecting the credit rating change risk. The Model
assumes that the Probability of Default (PD)
in a certain period is the same as in any other period, and that (PD) by a debtor is low,
with the number of defaults in one period
not being in any way related to the number
of defaults in the other period. Likewise, it
does not make assumptions about the causes
of default.
INDIKATOR VJEROVATNOĆE
PROMJENE KREDITNOG REJTINGA
(TRANZICIONA MATRICA)
PROBABILITY INDICATOR OF
CREDIT RATING CHANGE
(TRANSITION MATRIX)
VaR koncept je u svojoj prvobitnoj
namjeni služio za mjerenje tržišnog rizika,
dok se sredinom 90-ih godina prošlog vijeka počeo primjenjivati pri mjerenju kreditnog rizika. Osnovna razlika VaR koncepta za
mjerenje kreditnog rizika u odnosu na mjerenje tržišnog rizika jeste u izboru egzogenih varijabli koje utiču na vrijednost
portfolija. Kod tržišnih rizika kao egzogene
varijable uzimaju se: (1) tržišne cijene akcija, (2) tržišne cijene roba, (3) kamatne stope i
(4) devizni kursevi. Dok se pri mjerenju
kreditnog rizika, kao egzogene varijable,
pojavljuju: (1) kreditni rejting dužnika5,
(2) tranziciona matrica kreditnog rejtinga
i (3) korelacija kretanja kreditnog rejtinga
dužnika. Interni (kreditni) rejting je zapravo
ocjena kreditne sposobnosti dužnika izražena
putem određene rejting skale. Promjene vri-
VaR concept initially served its intended
purpose of measuring the market risk, while in
the mid-90s of the 20th century it began to be applied in credit risk measurement. The main difference between the use of VaR concept for credit
risk measurement in relation to the measurement
of market risk is the selection of exogenous variables that affect the portfolio value. With the
market risk, the following items are used as exogenous variables: (1) market price of shares,
(2) market price of commodities, (3) interest rates
and (4) foreign currency exchange rates. On the
other hand, the following items occur as exogenous variables in the process of measuring credit risk: (1) credit rating of the debtor5, (2) credit
rating transition matrix, and (3) the correlation of
debtor’s credit rating movement. Internal (credit) rating is actually a credit score of the debtor
expressed through a specific rating scale. Value
5 Kreditni rejting se definiše kao ocjena kreditne sposobnosti
komitenta izražena određenom ordinalnom skalom. Rejtinzi
se obično obilježavaju slovnim oznakama koje određuju rang
kvaliteta neke firme ili hartije od vrijednosti.
5 Credit rating is defined as client’s credit standing score
expressed using a specific ordinal scale. Ratings are often
marked by letters determining the ranking quality of a company or securities.
69
S. Subotić: MJERENJE RIZIKA KREDITNOG PORTFOLIJA
jednosti kreditnog portfolija banke se dešavaju kao posljedica promjene internog rejtinga
dužnika koji se nalaze u portfoliju.
change of a bank’s loan portfolio occurs as a result of changes in the internal rating of the debtors
within the portfolio.
Treba istaći da se rejtinzi svake kompanije mijenjaju tokom vremena i, samim tim,
utiču na vrijednost portfolija banke. Pri mjerenju kreditnog rizika primjenom VaR metodologije, najbitnija je izrada tranzicione matrice kao najefikasnijeg načina za prikazivanje
vjerovatnoće promjene kreditnog rejtinga.
Tranziciona matrica ukazuje na vjerovatnoću
promjene rejtinga u određenom vremenskom
periodu, koji se najčešće odnosi na jednu godinu dana. Jednogodišnji period se uzima zato
što se svi finansijski i drugi izvještaji o poslovanju kompanija objavljuju jednom godišnje.
It should be noted that the ratings of
each company vary over time, therefore affecting the value of the bank’s portfolio. In
the process of Credit risk measurement using VaR methodology the most important
aspect is the preparation of transition matrix
as the most effective method to demonstrate
the change probability in credit ratings. The
transition matrix indicates the probability of
a rating change within a certain period, which
is usually one year. One year period is used
mainly because all the financial and other reports of the companies are published annually.
Tabela 1
Tranziciona matrica
(Standard&Poor’s, 1996)
Table 1
Credit rating change Matrix
(Standard&Poor’s, 1996)
Inicijalni rejting
Initial rating
AAA
AA
A
BBB
BB
B
C
AAA
90,81
0,70
0,09
0,02
0,03
0,00
0,22
AA
8,33
90,65
2,27
0,33
0,14
0,11
0,00
Rejting na kraju godine (%)
Year-end rating (%)
A
BBB
BB
B
0,68
0,06
0,12
0,00
7,79
0,54
0,06
0,14
90,05
5,52
0,74
0,26
5,95
86,93
5,30
1,17
0,67
7,73
80,53
8,84
0,24
0,43
6,48
83,46
0,22
1,30
2,38
11,24
Tabela 1 prikazuje izgled jedne tranzicione matrice. Zbir svih vjerovatnoća u tranzicionoj matrici mora biti 100 u svakom od
redova, dok svaki red polazi od inicijalnog
rejtinga. Ukoliko se želi provjeriti vjerovatnoća kompanije koja danas rangira AA, a na
kraju godine BBB, iz tranzicione matrice se
vidi da je njena vrijednost 0,54. Takođe se
može primijetiti da su najveće vjerovatnoće
po dijagonali tranzicione matrice, što ukazuje
na činjenicu da većina kompanija ne mijenja
rejting u toku godine. Pojedine vjerovatnoće u
tranzicionoj matrici su jednake nuli (B, C, D),
a što navodi na zaključak da je vjerovatnoća
ravna nuli da neka kompanija iz ranga AAA
bankrotira.
70
C
0,00
0,02
0,01
0,12
1,00
4,07
64,86
D
0,00
0,00
0,06
0,18
1,06
5,20
19,79
Table 1 demonstrates the appearance of
a transition matrix. The sum of all probabilities
within a transitional matrix must be 100 in each
row, with each row starting with the initial rating. If the purpose is to check the credit rating
change probability of a company that is currently ranked as AA, while having the rating of
BBB at the end of the year, the transition matrix
shows that its value is 0.54. It may also be noted that the highest probability levels are set on
the transition matrix diagonal, which indicates
that most companies do not change their rating
within a year. Some of the probabilities within
the transitional matrix are equal to zero (B, C,
D), which suggests that the probability of AAA
ranked company going bankrupt equals zero.
S. Subotić: MEASUREMENT OF LOAN PORTFOLIO RISK
Tranzicione matrice se izrađuju na
osnovu istorijskih podataka o kretanju rejtinga svih dužnika koji čine portfolio. Pomoću
tranzicionih matrica i metoda istorijske tabulacije6 promjena kreditnog rejtinga svih dužnika iz kreditnog portfolija, tokom određenog
broja godina, moguće je utvrditi vjerovatnoću
promjene kreditnog rejtinga svakog dužnika.
Gotove tranzicione matrice se mogu preuzeti
od više eksternih rejting agencija. Pojedine
banke i same izrađuju tranzicione matrice na
osnovu sopstvenih vremenskih serija promjena kreditnog rejtinga svojih komitenata.
Transition matrices are made on the
basis of historical data on the rating movement of all the debtors forming a portfolio.
Using the transition matrices and the method of historical tabulation6 of credit ratings
changes of debtors in the loan portfolio over
a certain period of years, it is possible to determine the probability of credit rating change
of each debtor. Completed transition matrices
can be obtained from several external rating
agencies. Some banks prepare the transition
matrices themselves, based on their own time
series of its customers’ credit rating changes.
Prilikom izrade tranzicione matrice
treba voditi računa o četiri osnovna pravila vezana za vjerovatnoće promjene kreditnog rejtinga: (1) bolji kreditni rejtinzi nikad
ne smiju imati veću vjerovatnoću difolta od
lošijih; (2) vjerovatnoća promjene rejtinga je
manja što je rejting kategorija više udaljena;
(3) vjerovatnoća promjene rejtinga u određenu rejting kategoriju treba da bude veća za
rejting kategorije koje su bliže datoj rejting
kategoriji; (4) vjerovatnoća difolta je veća što
je duži vremenski period posmatranja
In the process of making the transition
matrix, four basic rules regarding the probability of changes in credit ratings should be taken
into account: (1) A superior credit rating should
never have a higher default probability than
the inferior one; (2) The further the rating category is, the lower is the probability of a rating
change; (3) Probability of a rating change into a
particular rating category should be higher for
rating categories closer to the given rating category; (4) The probability of default is higher the
longer the period of observation is.
Da bi se shvatila suština navedenog,
ova pravila je potrebno pojasniti. Prvo, što je
veći kreditni rejting nekog dužnika, to je manja
vjerovatnoća njegovog bankrota. Tako je manja vjerovatnoća da neki dužnik iz kategorije
AA bankrotira, od vjerovatnoće za dužnika iz
kategorije BBB. Drugo, manja je vjerovatnoća
da se promijeni rejting za dvije ili tri katagorije, nego za jednu (BB u A, nego BBB). Treće,
veća je vjerovatnoća da neka kompanija pređe
u određenu rejting kategoriju ukoliko je njen
rejting bliži toj kategoriji. Odnosno, veća je
vjerovatnoća da neko iz kategorije BB pređe u
A, nego iz kategorije C. Četvrto, postoji veća
vjerovatnoća da kompanija bankrotira u dužem
vremenskom periodu, nego u kraćem vremenskom periodu. To znači da kumulativne vjerovatnoće difolta moraju biti veće od vjerovatnoće difolta za godinu dana.
In order to understand the essence of the
above, these rules need clarification. Firstly, the higher the credit rating of a debtor, the lower the probability of its bankruptcy is. Thus, the probability that a
debtor from the AA category goes bankrupt is lower
than the probability that a debtor from the BBB category goes bankrupt. Secondly, the possibility of a rating change for two or even three categories is lower
than for just one (more likely for BB to directly go
into BBB than into A). Thirdly, the probability that
a company moves to a particular rating category is
higher if its rating is closer to that category. That is,
it is more likely that a company from the BB category moves to A category, than a company from the C
category. Finally, there is a greater probability that a
company goes bankrupt in the long run, than in the
short period of time. That implies that the cumulative
probability of default must be higher than the annual
probability of default.
6 Metod istorijske tabulacije pretpostavlja da je za sve dužnike kreditni rejting određen pravilno i korektno. Odnosno,
da su svi dužnici obilježeni istim slovima za rejting istog
kvaliteta.
6 Historical tabulation method assumes that the credit rating
for all of the debtors has been determined properly and fairly.
That is, that all the debtors have been marked with the same
letter for the same quality rating.
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S. Subotić: MJERENJE RIZIKA KREDITNOG PORTFOLIJA
Tabela 2
Matrica promjene kreditnog rejtinga
(Stojanovski, 2006)
Inicijalni rejting
Initial rating
AAA
AA
A
BBB
BB
B
C
Total
Table 2
Credit rating change Matrix
(Stojanovski, 2006)
Rejting na kraju godine (%)
Year-end rating (%)
AAA
AA
A
BBB
BB
B
C
D
1800
35
140
5
3
1
1
1.985
170
4.500
340
75
12
5
0
5.102
15
390
13.640
1.500
70
10
2
15.627
12
30
740
21.750
775
20
16
23.343
3
20
80
1.300
8.120
185
22
9.730
0
15
30
275
882
2.140
77
3.419
0
10
25
85
125
124
357
726
0
0
5
10
13
15
25
68
Ukupno
Total
2.000
5.000
15.000
25.000
10.000
2.500
500
60.000
Ukoliko bismo htjeli izraditi tranzicionu matricu primjenom metoda istorijske tabulacije, potrebno je najmanje pet godina pratiti
kretanje kreditnog rejtinga (npr. hiljadu kompanija) koje čine portfolio. Tako bi se dobila
baza podataka od 60 hiljada kompanija-mjeseci (1000x5x12), koja predstavlja matricu promjene kreditnog rejtinga prikazanu u tabeli 2.
Dobijena matrica promjene kreditnog rejtinga
se prevodi u tranzicionu matricu tako što se računaju vjerovatnoće promjene. Primjera radi,
da kompanija iz kategorije A na kraju godine
završi u kategoriji BBB, vjerovatnoća promjene kreditnog rejtinga se izračunava kao količnik
740/15000=0,0493 ili 4,93%. Vjerovatnoća da
kompanija iz BBB ostane u BBB se izračunava kao količnik 21750/25000=0,87, ili 87%. Na
ovaj način se formira tranziciona matrica za vjerovatnoće promjene kreditnog rejtinga koja je
slična tranzicionoj matrici prikazanoj u tabeli 1.
In order to prepare a transition matrix
using methods of historical tabulations, at least
five years period is required to track the movement of credit rating (e.g. of a thousand companies) comprising the portfolio. Thus, a database of 60 thousands companies-months would
be generated (1000x5x12), which represents a
Credit rating change matrix shown in Table 2.
The resulting Credit rating change matrix is
converted into transition matrix by calculating
the probability of change. For example, for a
company from the category A to move into
the category BBB, the probability of the credit rating change is calculated as the quotient of
740/15000=0.0493 or 4.93%. The probability
that a company from BBB remains in BBB is
calculated as the ratio of 21750/25000=0.87 or
87%. That way, a transition matrix for the possibility of credit rating change is formed, which is
similar to the transition matrix shown in Table 1.
VREDNOVANJE KREDITNOG
PORTFOLIJA
EVALUATION OF CREDIT
PORTFOLIO
Moguće promjene kvaliteta kredita u
portfoliju kredita banke moguće je ilustrovati
primjenom CreditMetrics modela. CreditMetrics model procjenjuje individualne i portfolio
vrijednosti pod rizikom (VaR), a da pri tome
najprije određuje profil izloženosti riziku svake
od pozicija u kreditnom portfoliju. Nakon toga
Possible credit quality changes in the
loan portfolio of banks can be illustrated using
the CreditMetrics model. CreditMetrics model assesses individual and portfolio values at
risk (VaR), while first determining the risk exposure profile of each of the positions in the
portfolio, followed by the calculation of vol-
72
S. Subotić: MEASUREMENT OF LOAN PORTFOLIO RISK
se izračunava volatilnost svake pozicije nastale
povećanjem ili smanjenjem kreditnog rejtinga
kompanija, odnosno neotplaćenih kredita. Svaka promjena rejtinga se konvertuje u promjenu
tržišne vrijednosti kredita kompanija, dok se
agregiranjem volatilnosti individualnih kredita
dobija volatilnost portfolija.
atility of each position resulting from an increase or decrease in the credit rating of companies, or unpaid loans. Each rating change is
converted into the market value change of the
companies’ loans, while aggregation of the
individual loans’ volatility results in portfolio
volatility.
Suština CreditMetrics modela je u tome
da daje kvantitativni okvir za sagledavanje promjene kreditnih rejtinga i neplaćanje kreditnih
obaveza, odnosno difolta (default). Nasuprot
tradicionalnim modelima (kao što je npr. Z-score model), koji izračunavaju samo vjerovatnoću
izvršenja i neizvršenja kreditnih obaveza dužnika, CreditMetrics model kao ulazni podatak
uzima bilo koju procjenu vjerovatnoće neizvršenja obaveza (Probability of Default-PD)7, te
procjenjuje rizik portfolija usljed promjene u
vrijednosti duga, koje su izazvane promjenama
u kreditnom kvalitetu dužnika. Važno je naglasiti da ovaj model procjenjuje rizike u okviru
cjelokupnog portfolija, pri čemu uzima u obzir
korelaciju među dužnicima.
The essence of the CreditMetrics model is that it provides a quantitative framework
for understanding the credit rating changes
and loan liabilities or default. In contrast to
traditional models, such as Z-score model that
calculates only a probability of enforcement
and non-enforcement of loan liabilities of the
debtor, CreditMetrics model uses any assessment of the Probability of Default (PD)7, and
estimates the portfolio risk due to changes
in the debt value, caused by the changes in
the debtor’s credit quality. It is important to
emphasize that this model predicts the risks
within the entire portfolio, simultaneously
taking into account the correlation among the
debtors.
Na sljedećem primjeru je ilustrovana
primjena CreditMetrics modela u izračunavanju vrijednosti kreditnog portfolija.
The following example illustrates the
application of CreditMetrics model in calculating the loan portfolio value.
Tabela 3
Moguće promjene kvaliteta kredita u
portfoliju (Marcia, M. C., Antony, S., 1999)
Table 3
Possible changes in credit quality within a
portfolio (Marcia, M. C., Antony, S., 1999)
Budući kreditni rejting Vjerovatnoće promjene kreditnog rejtinga (%) Buduća vrijednost zajma (u 000 $)
Future credit rating
Probability of credit rating change (%)
Future loan value (in 000 $)
AAA
0,02
4.375
AA
0,33
4.368
A
5,95
4.364
BBB
86,93
4.300
BB
5,30
4.081
B
1,17
3.924
CCC
0,12
3.346
Default
0,18
2.125
7 Banke koje, prema Bazel II sporazumu koriste osnovni ili napredni IRB pristup pri određivanju kreditne sposobnosti dužnika, primjenjuju IRB metodologiju koja obuhvata četiri bazične komponente
rizika: (1) vjerovatnoću neizvršenja dužničkih obaveza PD (Probability of Default), (2) veličinu mogućeg gubitka LGD (Loss Given
Default), (3) visinu izloženosti u momentu neizvršenja obaveza
EAD (Exposure At Default), (4) ročnost M (Maturity).
7 Banks which, according to Basel II, use basic or advanced
IRB approach in determining creditworthiness, utilise the IRB
methodology which includes four basic components of risk:
(1) Probability of Default of debt liabilities (PD), (2) Amount
of a potential loss (Loss Given Default - LGD), (3) Amount of
exposure at the time of default (Exposure at Default - EAD),
(4) Maturity (M).
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S. Subotić: MJERENJE RIZIKA KREDITNOG PORTFOLIJA
Pretpostavka je da kreditni portfolio
ima kreditni rejting BBB i tržišnu vrijednost od
4,300.000,00$. U tabeli 3 je vidljivo da će portfolio zadržati postojeći kreditni rejting BBB,
sa vjerovatnoćom 86,93%, čime bi njegova
tržišna vrijednost ostala nepromijenjena. Ukoliko se uzme u obzir da ponderisana buduća
vrijednost ovog portfolija, poslije godinu dana,
ima srednju vrijednost od 4,281.911,00 $8,
dok vrijednost standardne devijacije ( ) iznosi
116.698,00$9. Tada, apsolutna vrijednost standardne devijacije iznosi +116.698,00$ u odnosu
na srednju vrijednost portfolija od 4,281.911,00
$. S obzirom na to da pri normalnoj distribuciji rizika postoji vjerovatnoća od 1% (nivo
tolerancije) da će portfolio vrijednost pasti za
2,33 10, mogući gubitak banke bi u tom slučaju iznosio 271.906,00$ (2,33x116.698$). Time
bi vrijednost portfolija pala na 4,010.005,00 $
(4,281.911$ - 271.906$). To znači, da uz nivo
tolerancije od 1%, izračunata vrijednost pod rizikom važi u 99% slučajeva, dok u 1% slučajeva može biti probijena. Ukoliko bi se desilo
da kreditni rejting portfolija padne sa BBB na
B, uz moguću vjerovatnoću od svega 1,17%
(vrijednost iz tabele br. 3.), banka bi tada imala gubitak od 357.911,00$, dok bi vrijednost
portfolija iznosila 3,924.000,00$ (4,281.911$
- 357.911$) (Millon, Saunders, 1999).
The initial assumption is that the credit portfolio has a credit rating of BBB and a
market value of $4,300.000,00. The table no.3
clearly specifies that the portfolio is likely to
retain the existing credit rating BBB, with the
probability of 86.93%, which would leave its
market value unchanged. If we take into account that the weighted future value of the
portfolio, after one year, has a mean value of
$4.281.911,008 while the standard deviation (
) is $116,698.009. Then, the absolute value of
standard deviation is $116,698.00 compared
to the portfolio mean value of $4,281.911,00.
Given that with the normal distribution of risk,
there is a 1% probability (tolerance level) that
the portfolio value will drop by 2.33 10, potential bank loss in that case would amount
to $271,906.00 (2.33x$116,698). This would
reduce the portfolio value to $4,010.005,00
($4,281.911 - $271,906). It means that with the
tolerance level of 1%, the calculated value at
risk is applicable in 99% of cases, while in 1%
of the cases it can be exceeded. If the portfolio credit rating would drop from BBB to B, of
which the probability is only 1.17% (the value
from the Table 3.), The bank would suffer a loss
of $357,911.00, while the value of the portfolio
would amount to $3,924.000,00 ($4,281.911 $357,911) (Millon, Saunders, 1999).
Ukoliko kreditni rejting neke kompanije, koja je dobila bankarski zajam, bude snižen,
onda bi ta kompanija trebalo da plati povećanu kamatnu stopu (tzv. spred) zbog toga što je
ušla u klasu povećanog rizika. Međutim, kako
je kompanija već dobila bankarski zajam po
fiksnoj kamatnoj stopi, onda bi tekući prinos
(yield) trebalo da se reflektuje u višoj diskontnoj stopi koja se primjenjuje na novčane tokove dok zajam ne bude vraćen. Kada se na
nominalne novčane tokove zajma primijeni
viša diskontna stopa, dobija se smanjena tržišna vrijednost zajma u sadašnjem momentu. I
If the credit rating of a company,
which received a bank loan, is reduced, then
the company should pay an increased interest rate (the spread) because it has entered
a higher risk category. However, since the
company has already obtained a bank loan
at a fixed interest rate, then the current yield
should be reflected in a higher discount rate
applied to the cash flows until the loan is repaid. Applying a higher discount rate onto
nominal cash flows of the loan, results in a
reduced market value of the loan at the present time. Likewise, if a company is awarded
8 Vrijednost dobijena po formuli: Е(х)= pixi, gdje su (p) vrijednosti, a (x) vjerovatnoće.
9 Vrijednost dobijena po formuli: = ², gdje je standardna
devijacija jednaka kvadratnom korijenu varijanse. Navedene
vrijednosti su dobijene složenim računskim operacijama
koje su ovdje izostavljene.
10 Standardna vrijednost za 1. percentil normalne raspodjele je 2,33
8 The value obtained using the following formula: Е(х)= pixi
where (p) is the value, and (x) is the probability.
9 The value obtained by the formula: = ², with standard
deviation equal to the square root of the variance. Values
specified are obtained by complex calculations not specified
in the paper.
10 The default value of 1 percentile of the normal distribution is 2.33.
74
S. Subotić: MEASUREMENT OF LOAN PORTFOLIO RISK
obrnuto, ako kompanija dobije poboljšan kreditni rejting, tržišna vrijednost njenog zajma se
u ovom trenutku povećava (Ćirović, 2006).
an improved credit rating, the market value
of its loan is increased at the current moment
(Ćirović, 2006).
CreditMetrics model može se primijeniti, na prezentirani način, za izračunavanje
vrijednosti portfolija kredita samo pod uslovom da kompanije koje koriste kredite imaju verifikovane kreditne rejtinge od strane
priznatih rejting agencija. Tabela 4 prikazuje
uporedni pregled rejting sistema poznatih
svjetskih rejting agencija.
CreditMetrics model can be applied
to the above presented method for calculating the value of the credit portfolio only under the condition that the companies using the
loans have their credit ratings verified by a
recognized rating agency. Table 4 shows the
comparison of the rating system by renowned
international rating agencies.
Tabela 4
Uporedni pregled rejting sistema
(Bjelica, 2001)
Table 4
Comparison of rating scale
(Bjelica, 2001)
Moody’s
Standard & Poor’s
Bank Watch
Aaa
AAA
A
Aa
AA
A/B
A
A
B
Baa
BBB
B/C
Ba
BB
C
B
B
C/D
Caa
CCC
D
Ca
CC
D/E
C
C
E
D
Ukoliko dotične kompanije imaju i
emitovane obveznice na finansijskom tržištu,
tada je moguće uporediti tržišne cijene obveznica sa rejtinzima priznatih agencija. Problem
nastaje kod bankarskih zajmova koji nemaju ni
tržišne cijene obveznice, ni rejting profesionalnih rejting institucija. Prema odredbama Bazel
II sporazuma, banke mogu koristiti dva pristupa određivanju kreditne sposobnosti dužnika:
standardizovani pristup i pristup internog rej-
Kvalitet
Quality
Najveći
Highest grade
Visok
High grade
Viši srednji
Upper medium grade
Srednji
Medium grade
Niži srednji
Lower medium grade
Špekulativni
Highly Speculative
Loš
Substantial risks
Visoko špek.
Extremely speculative
Vrlo loš
Very poor
Rizičan
In default
If the concerned companies have issued bonds in the financial markets, it is
possible to compare the market prices of the
bonds with the ratings of recognized agencies. The problem arises with bank loans that
have neither a market price of a bond, nor a
rating established by professional rating institutions. Under the provisions of Basel II,
banks can use two approaches to determine
creditworthiness: the standardized approach
75
S. Subotić: MJERENJE RIZIKA KREDITNOG PORTFOLIJA
tinga (IRB-Internal Ratings Based Approach).
Ukoliko banka koristi standardizovani pristup,
tada na svaku klasu rizika mora primijeniti pondere rizika, koje određuje supervizorska institucija, na bazi procjene kreditnih rizika od
strane neke priznate rejting agencije. Međutim,
pri primjeni IRB pristupa, sofisticirane banke
koriste svoje interne metodologije, pod uslovom da su verifikovane od strane odgovarajuće
supervizorske institucije.
and Internal Ratings Based Approach (IRB).
If a bank uses the standardized approach, the
risk weights must be applied to each of the
risk classes, as determined by a supervisory
institution, based on the credit risk assessment by a recognized rating agency. However, when applying the IRB approach, sophisticated banks utilise their own methodology,
provided that they have been certified by the
appropriate supervisory institutions.
ZAKLJUČAK
CONCLUSION
Sredinom 90-ih godina prošlog vijeka razvijen je VaR (Value at Risk) koncept
koji je danas dominantan u oblasti mjerenja
svih vrsta rizika u velikim svjetskim bankama.
Finansijske institucije su razvile VaR koncept
kao opštu mjeru ekonomoskog gubitka, koji
može odgovarati riziku pojedinačnih pozicija i ukupnom riziku portfolija. Zajedničko
za sve VaR modele kreditnog portfolija jeste
da koriste pretpostavke i finansijske teorije u
cilju procjene parametara gubitaka na osnovu
male količine raspoloživih podataka. Najbitnija stvar kod mjerenja kreditnog rizika VaR
modelima jeste izrada tranzicione matrice, kao
pokazatelja vjerovatnoće promjene kreditnog
rejtinga kompanije u određenom vremenskom
periodu. Jedan od VaR modela vrednovanja
kreditnog portfolija jeste CreditMetrics model. CreditMetrics model, prvi put publikovan
1997. godine, je model na osnovu kojeg se
može mjeriti kreditni rizik širokog niza instrumenata i njihovih portfolija, pri tome polazeći
od portfolio teorije i VaR metodologije. Nasuprot tradicionalnim modelima, koji izračunavaju samo vjerovatnoću izvršenja i neizvršenja
kreditnih obaveza dužnika, CreditMetrics model kao ulazni podatak uzima bilo koju procjenu vjerovatnoće neizvršenja obaveza (PD), te
procjenjuje rizik portfolija usljed promjene u
vrijednosti duga, koje su izazvane promjenama
u kreditnom kvalitetu dužnika. Takođe, procjenjuje rizike u okviru cjelokupnog portfolija,
pri čemu uzima u obzir korelaciju među dužnicima. CreditMetrics model može se primijeniti
za izračunavanje vrijednosti portfolija kredita
In the mid-90s of the 20th century, the
VaR (Value at Risk) concept was developed.
The concept is now dominant in the field of
measurement of all types of risk in large global banks. Financial institutions have developed the VaR concept as a general measure of
an economic loss, which may correspond to
individual positions risk and overall portfolio
risk. Common to all of the VaR credit portfolio models is to use assumptions and financial
theories in order to estimate the parameters of
losses based on a little amount of data available. The most important aspect in measuring
credit risk by VaR model is preparing the transition matrix as an indicator of the probability of a company’s credit rating change over a
certain period of time. One of the VaR models for evaluating the loan portfolio is CreditMetrics model. CreditMetrics model, first
published in 1997, is a model on the basis of
which a credit risk of a wide range of instruments and their portfolios can be measured,
while starting from portfolio theory and VaR
methodology. In contrast to the traditional
models, which calculate only the probability
of enforcement and non-enforcement of loan
liabilities of the debtor, CreditMetrics model
uses any assessment of the Probability of Default (PD) as input, and it estimates the risk
of the portfolio due to changes in the value
of debt, caused by the changes in the debtor’s creditworthiness. Likewise, it estimates
the risks in the overall portfolio, taking into
account the correlation among the debtors.
CreditMetrics model can be applied to calcu-
76
S. Subotić: MEASUREMENT OF LOAN PORTFOLIO RISK
samo pod uslovom da kompanije imaju verifikovane kreditne rejtinge od strane priznatih
rejting agencija ili banaka.
late the value of the loan portfolio only if the
companies have had their credit ratings verified by recognized rating agencies or banks.
LITERATURA
LITERATURA
Bazelski odbor za nadzor banaka. (2004).
Međunarodni sporazum o mjerenju
kapitala i standardima kapitala.
Zagreb: Potekon.
Bazelski odbor za nadzor banaka. (2004).
International Convergence of Capital
Measurement and Capital Standards.
Zagreb: Potekon.
Bjelica, V. (2001). Bankarstvo teorija i
praksa. Novi Sad: Stylos.
Bjelica, V. (2001). Banking: Theory and
Practice. Novi Sad: Stylos.
Ćirović, M. (2006). Bankarstvo. Beograd:
Ekonomski fakultet.
Ćirović, M. (2006). Banking. Beograd:
Ekonomski fakultet.
Đukić, Đ. (2004). Bankarstvo. Beograd:
Ekonomski fakultet.
Đukić, Đ. (2004). Banking. Beograd:
Ekonomski fakultet.
Jorrion, P. (2001). Value at Risk: The Naw
Benchmark for Controlling Market
Risk. Boston: Irwin/ Mc Graw-Hill.
Jorrion, P. (2001). Value at Risk: The Naw
Benchmark for Controlling Market
Risk. Boston: Irwin/ Mc Graw-Hill.
Marcia, M. C., Antony, S. (1999).
Fundamentals of Financial
Institutions Management. Boston:
Irwin/ McGraw-Hill.
Marcia, M. C., Antony, S. (1999).
Fundamentals of Financial
Institutions Management. Boston:
Irwin/McGraw-Hill.
Standard&Poor’s (1996). CreditWeek.
Standard&Poor’s (1996). CreditWeek.
Stojanovski, Đ. (2006). Interni modeli za
mjerenje kreditnog rizika –VaR
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Stojanovski, Đ. (2006). Interni modeli za
mjerenje kreditnog rizika –VaR
Model. Ekonomski fakultet Beograd.
Subotić, S. (2007). Bankarski rizici u svjetlu
odredbi Bazel II sporazuma. Finrar
br.10. Banja Luka.
Subotić, S. (2007). Banking Risks in Terms
of Basel II Convergence Provisions.
Finrar br.10. Banja Luka.
Subotić, S. (2007). Kreditni rizik-upravljanje
i mjrenje. Finrar, br. 12. Banja Luka.
Subotić, S. (2007). Credit risk-management and
measurement. Finrar, br. 12. Banja Luka.
Vujnović, M. (2007). VaR analiza kreditnog
portfolija banke. Beograd: Trag.
Vujnović, M. (2007). VaR Analysis of a Bank’s
Loan Portfolio. Beograd: Trag.
Vunjak, N. (2006). Bankarstvo-Bankarski
menadžment. Subotica: Ekonomski
fakultet. Bečej: Proleter a.d.
Vunjak, N. (2006). Banking Business-Banking
Management. Subotica: Ekonomski
fakultet. Bečej: Proleter a.d.
Vunjak, N. (2008). Korporativno i
investiciono bankarstvo. Subotica:
Ekonomski fakultet. Bečej: Proleter
a.d. Banja Luka: BLC Colege.
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Investment Banking. Subotica:
Ekonomski fakultet. Bečej: Proleter
a.d. Banja Luka: BLC Colege.
77
78
POSLOVNE FINANSIJE I BANKARSTVO - BUSINESS FINANCE AND BANKING
METODE MJERENJA KAMATNOG RIZIKA U BANKAMA
METHODS OF MEASURING INTEREST RATE RISK IN BANKS
Boriša Stevanović, dipl. ek.
Stručni članak
doi 10.7251/OIK1301007S, UDK 336.71:[005.52:005.334
Professional paper
REZIME
SUMMARY
Predmet analize u radu je problematika mjerenja izloženosti banke kamatnom
riziku. Imajući u vidu da je kamatni rizik izloženost finansijskog položaja banke promjenjivim kretanjima kamatnih stopa, prihvatanje
tog rizika je uobičajen dio bankarskog poslovanja i može biti važan izvor profitabilnosti i
vrijednosti preduzeća za dioničare. Međutim,
prekomjeran kamatni rizik može predstavljati
značajniju prijetnju zaradi i kapitalnoj osnovi
banke. Na raspolaganju su raznovrsni modeli
i metode mjerenja izloženosti banke kamatnom riziku, na osnovu kojih se može identifikovati nivo izloženosti kamatnom riziku određene banke, što u krajnjem služi za kvalitetno
upravljanje kamatnim rizikom u banci.
Subject of this text is the measurement
of a bank’s exposure to interest rate risk. Bearing in mind that the interest rate risk exposure of the financial position of the bank variable interest rate, acceptance that risk is a
normal part of banking and can be an important source of profitability and company value
for shareholders. However, excessive interest
rate risk can pose a significant threat to earnings and capital base of the bank. There are
various models and methods of measuring a
bank’s exposure to interest rate risk on the
basis of which one can identify the level of
interest rate risk exposure of a certain bank,
which ultimately serves for the good management of interest rate risk in the bank.
Ključne riječi: kamatni rizik, banka, kamatnoosjetljiva aktiva, kamatno-osijetljiva pasiva.
Keywords: interest rate risk, the bank, interestsensitive assets, interest-sensitive liabilities.
UVOD
INTRODUCTION
Postoje različiti izvori finansijskih rizika, a kamatna stopa je važan sastavni dio.
Kamatni rizik predstavlja jedan od ključnih
finansijskih (tržišnih) rizika za banku. Kako
se banka ne može izolovati od uticaja kretanja
kamatne stope, uprava mora spoznati izvore
i oblike kamatnog rizika. Spoznajom oblika
kamatnog rizika u bankarstvu, banke mogu
preduzeti određene mehanizme zaštite. Uticaj
kamatnog rizika na finansijsko stanje banke posmatra se putem uticaja na ekonomsku
vrijednost i tržišnu vrijednost banke. Obavljajući svoje dvije osnovne funkcije, banka prikuplja depozite, izvore sredstava te ih
usmjerava u kreditne plasmane, vrijednosne
papire (investicije) i druge oblike pozajmica,
There are different sources of financial risk and the interest rate is an important
component. Interest rate risk is a key financial (market) risk for the bank. As the bank
can not be isolated from the impact of interest
rate movements, the administration must recognize the sources and forms of interest rate
risk. Cognition of the form of interest rate risk
in the banking system, banks can take certain
safeguards. The impact of interest rate risk on
the financial condition of the bank is viewed
through the impact on the economic value and
the market value of the bank. In performing
its two main functions, the bank collects deposits, sources of funds and directs them to
a credit lending, securities (investment) and
79
B. Stevanović: METODE MJERENJA KAMATNOG RIZIKA U BANKAMA
čime se suočava s jednim od osnovnih rizika bankarskog poslovanja, rizikom kamatne
stope. Za banku je kamatni rizik jedan od
najznačajnijih oblika tržišnog rizika kojem
se banka izlaže zahvaljujući funkciji finansijskog posrednika. Poslovanje banke stalno je
izloženo kamatnom riziku, stoga je nemoguće
banku izolovati od uticaja promjena kamatnih
stopa. Kada kamatne stope rastu, prihodi banke mogu padati kada ona svoje obaveze otplaćuje po višim kamatnim stopama nego što su
one koje naplaćuje na svoju aktivu. Za upravu
banke je bitno razumijevanje uzročno-posljedične veze između kamatnog rizika i drugih
rizika koji se pojavljuju u poslovanju banaka.
other forms of borrowing, which is facing one
of the main risks of the banking business, the
interest-rate risk. For the bank’s interest rate
risk is one of the most important forms of market risk to which the bank is exposed thanks
to the financial intermediary. Business Bank is
constantly exposed to interest rate risk, so it is
impossible to isolate the impact of bank interest rates. When interest rates rise, the revenue
banks can fall when it repays its obligations at
higher interest rates than those charged to their
assets. Management of the Bank is substantially the understanding of cause-and-effect
relationship between the interest rate and other
risks that arise in the banking business.
ZNAČAJ MJERENЈA KAMATNOG
RIZIKA U BANKAMA
SIGNIFICANCE OF MEASURING
THE INTEREST RATE RISK IN BANKS
Rizik kamatne stope u banci se definiše kao mogućnost promjene kamatne stope u
budućnosti, koja će prouzrokovati ostvarenje
ekonomskog gubitka, koji banka nije očekivala. Veoma je važno da se naglasi da rizik nastaje zbog mogućnosti da se kamatne stope mogu
kretati različito od onoga što menadžment banke očekuje, što rezultira u manjem kamatnom
prihodu ili većim kamatnim troškovima od anticipiranih. Rezultirajući gubitak se reflektuje
na nižu kamatnu maržu, manju vrijednost aktive, ili na oboje. Dakle, rizik kamatne stope
se manifestuju kao smanjenje prihoda banke
usljed promjena nivoa kamatnih stopa. Nijedan bankar ne može usljed potpunosti izbjeći
jedan od najneugodnijih oblika rizika s kojim
se banka mora suočiti – rizik kamatne stope.
Rouz (Rose, 2003) ukazuje na to da, kada se
kamatne stope na finansijskom tržištu promjene, promjene utiču na najvažniji izvor prihoda
banke – prihod od kamata po kreditima i vrijednosnim papirima – i najvažniji izvor troškova – trošak kamata na depozite i ostala sredstva koja je banka posudila. Promjena kamatne
stope takođe mijenja tržišnu vrijednost aktive i
pasive banke mijenjajući tako i neto vrijednost
banke, tj. vrijednost vlasničkih uloga u banku.
Interest rate risk in the bank is defined as the ability to change interest rates in
the future, which will result in the achievement of economic loss, which the bank is not
expected. It is important to emphasize that
the risk is the possibility that interest rates
may move differently than what the bank’s
management is expected, resulting in lower
interest income and higher interest costs than
anticipated. The resulting loss is reflected in
a lower interest margin, lower asset value, or
both. Thus, the interest rate risk is manifested as a reduction of earnings due to changes
in the level of interest rates. No banker can
not completely avoid one of the most awkward of the risk to which the bank has to face
- the interest rate risk. Rose (2003) indicates
that when the interest rates on the financial
market changes, changes affecting the most
important source of income for banks - interest income on loans and securities - the most
important source of costs - interest expense
on deposits and other assets that the bank
lent. Changing interest rates also changes the
market value of the assets and liabilities of
the bank and make the net worth of the bank,
that is. value of equity in the banks.
Bazelski odbor za superviziju banaka (The Basel Committee on Banking Su-
The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (2004) states that it is important for
80
B. Stevanović: METHODS OF MEASURING INTEREST RATE RISK IN BANKS
pervision, 2004) navodi da je vrlo važno
da banke imaju sisteme za mjerenje kamatnog rizika kojim se obuhvataju svi značajni
izvori kamatnog rizika i procjenjuju učinci
promjena kamatnih stopa na profitabilnost
banke. Uprava banke i osobe odgovorne za
upravljanje rizicima moraju dobro razumjeti
pretpostavke na kojima se temelji određeni
sistem. Uopšteno, nevezano za složenost i
opseg aktivnosti pojedine banke, banke moraju imati sisteme za mjerenje kamatnog rizika kojim se procjenjuju učinci promjena
kamatnih stopa na zaradu i na ekonomsku
vrijednost. Ti sistemi treba da pruže razumljive pokazatelje trenutnog nivoa izloženosti banke kamatnom riziku i moraju biti
sposobni identifikovati svaku eventualnu
prekomjernu izloženost. Sistemi za mjerenje
moraju: (1) procijeniti sve značajne kamatne
rizike povezane sa imovinom, obavezama i
vanbilansnim pozicijama banke, (2) koristiti
se opšte prihvaćenim finansijskim pojmovima i tehnikama mjerenja rizika, i imati dobro
dokumentovane pretpostavke i parametre.
banks to have systems in place to measure the
interest rate risk, which include all significant
sources of interest rate risk and assess the effects of changes in interest rates on the bank’s
profitability. The bank’s management and
those responsible for risk management must
be able to understand the assumptions underlying the particular system. In general, not related to the complexity and scope of the activities of individual banks, banks must have a
system for measuring interest rate risk, which
estimates the effects of interest rate changes
on earnings and economic value. These systems should provide comprehensible indicators of the current level of the bank’s exposure
to interest rate risk and must be able to identify any possible over-exposure. Measurement
systems must: (1) assess any significant interest rate risk associated with the assets, liabilities and off-balance sheet positions of banks,
(2) use the generally accepted financial concepts and risk measurement techniques, and
have a well-documented assumptions and parameters.
Kao opšte pravilo, poželjno je da
svaki sistem za mjerenje uključuje izloženosti kamatnom riziku koje proizilaze iz punog
opsega aktivnosti banke, uključujući izvore
iz aktivnosti trgovanja i aktivnosti koje nisu
aktivnosti trgovanja. To ne znači da se za pojedine aktivnosti ne mogu koristiti drugi sistemi za mjerenje i pristupi upravljanju rizicima,
međutim, rukovodstvo mora imati integrisani
pregled nad kamatnim rizikom svih proizvoda i poslovnih linija. Sistem za mjerenje kamatnog rizika treba uzeti u obzir sve značajne
izvore kamatnog rizika uključujući rizik ročne
neusklađenosti, rizik krive prinosa, rizik osnovice i rizik opcije. U mnogo slučajeva karakteristike kamatnih stopa najvećih udjela banke
definisaće njen ukupan profil rizičnosti. Bazelski odbor za superviziju banaka (The Basel
Committee on Banking Supervision, 2004) sugeriše da sistemi za mjerenje kamatnog rizika
treba da osiguraju posebno strog tretman onih
instrumenata koji bi mogli značajno uticati na
ukupnu poziciju banke, čak i ako oni ne predstavljaju veliku koncentraciju. Posebnu pažnju
As a general rule, it is desirable that
each system includes measurement of interest
rate risk arising from a full range of banking
activities, including sources from trading activities and activities that are not trading activities. This does not mean that the individual events can not be used by other measuring
systems and approaches to risk management,
but management should have an integrated
view of the interest rate risk of the product
and business lines. The system for measuring
interest rate risk should take into account all
significant sources of interest rate risk, including the risk of maturity mismatch risk, yield
curve risk, basis risk, and options. In many
cases, the interest rate characteristics of the
major share of the bank will define its overall
risk profile. The Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (2004) suggests that systems
for measuring interest rate risk should also
provide particularly harsh treatment of those
instruments that could significantly affect the
overall position of the bank, even if they are
not a large concentration. Particular attention
81
B. Stevanović: METODE MJERENJA KAMATNOG RIZIKA U BANKAMA
treba posvetiti instrumentima sa značajnim
ugrađenim ili eksplicitnim svojstvima opcija.
should be paid to instruments with significant
embedded or explicit option characteristics.
METODE MJERENЈA KAMATNOG
RIZIKA U BANKAMA
METHODS OF MEASUREMENT OF
INTEREST RATE RISK IN BANKS
Postoji određeni broj tehnika za mjerenje
izloženosti kamatnom riziku zarade i ekonomske
vrijednosti. Nivo njihove složenosti kreće se od
jednostavnih kalkulacija do statičkih simulacija
na temelju trenutnih udjela, te naprednih tehnika
dinamičkog modeliranja koje odražavaju potencijalne buduće poslovne aktivnosti. Osnovna metodologija mjerenja rizika kamatnih stopa polazi
od redefinisanja i pregrupisavanja aktive u blokove sa fiksnim i promjenljivim kamatnim stopama
i rokovima dospijeća i reugovaranja ili automatske promjene kamatne stope. Naravno, u uslovima nestabilnih kamatnih stopa, banka će nastojati
da ima relativno veći udio pozicija sa promjenljivim kamatnim stopama i kraćim rokovim dospijeća pozicija u pogledu promjena kamatnih stopa.
Ćurčić i Barjaktarović (2010) konstatuju da osjetljivost zarade banke na promjene kamatnih stopa
zavisi od strukure dospijeća u bilansu banke. Pri
tome treba imati u vidu da banka uvijek ima kontrolu nad bilansom, ali skoro da nema kontrole
nad kamatnim stopama.
There are a number of techniques for
the measurement of interest rate risk earnings
and economic value. Their level of complexity ranges from simple calculations to static
simulations based on current investments and
advanced techniques of dynamic modeling
to reflect potential future business. The basic
methodology for measuring interest rate risk
starts to redefining and regrouping of assets
into blocks with fixed and variable interest
rates and maturities and automatic changes
in interest rates. Of course, in terms of volatile interest rates, the bank will try to have a
relatively higher proportion of positions with
varying interest rates and shorter maturities
position in terms of interest rates. Curcic and
Barjaktarovic (2010) note that the sensitivity
of bank profits to changes in interest rates depends on the maturity structures of the bank’s
balance sheet. It should be borne in mind that
the bank still has control over the balance, but
there is almost no control over interest rates.
Kompjuterski modeli simulacije
Computer simulation models
Kompjuterski modeli simulacije su
napredniji sistemi za mjerenje kamatnog rizika, koje obično upotrebljavaju banke koje se
koriste kompleksnim finansijskim instrumentima ili koje imaju složene profile rizičnosti.
Ove tehnike simulacije obično uključuju detaljne procjene mogućih učinaka promjena
kamatnih stopa na zaradu i ekonomsku vrijednost simulacijom budućeg kretanja kamatnih
stopa i njihovog učinka na novčane tokove. U
statičnim simulacijama se procjenjuju novčani tokovi koji proizilaze isključivo iz bilansnih i vanbilansnih pozicija banke. U pristupu
dinamičnih simulacija, simulacija se temelji
na detaljnim pretpostavkama o budućem toku
kamatnih stopa i očekivanim promjenama u
poslovnoj aktivnosti banke tokom tog vreme-
Computer simulation models have advanced systems for the measurement of interest rate risk, which is usually used by banks,
which used complex financial instruments,
or with complex risk profiles. These simulation techniques typically involve detailed
assessment of the possible effects of interest
rate changes on earnings and economic value
simulation of future interest rate movements
and their impact on cash flows. In static simulations to estimate cash flows arising solely
from the balance sheet and off-balance sheet
position of banks. In the dynamic simulation
approach, the simulation is based on detailed
assumptions about the future course of interest rates and expected changes in the business
activities of the bank during this time. These
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na. Te naprednije tehnike omogućavaju dinamičnu interakciju platnih tokova i kamatnih
stopa i bolje obuhvaćaju učinak ugrađenih ili
eksplicitnih opcija.
advanced techniques allow dynamic interaction of payments streams and interest rates
and better include the effect of embedded or
explicit options.
Kompjuterski simulacioni modeli
prognoziraju buduće prihode banke na bazi
izvjesnosti pretpostavki o budućnosti ekonomskog okruženja i specifičnosti implementiranih odluka o sredstvima i obavezama
banke. Neki bankarski modeli zahtijevaju
prognozu optimalne veličine i kompozicije
bilansa banke. Osjetljivost bilansa banke na
promjenu kamatne stope može biti redukovana, možda čak i eliminisana, uspostavljanjem
ravnoteže dospijeća na suprotnim stranama
bilansa banke. Međutim, ako su očekivanja
uvjerljiva da će se kamatna stopa kretati u
određenom posebnom pravcu, banka može
loše usmjeriti svoj bilans u namjeri da ostvari
profit iz takvog razvoja situacije. Zbog toga
je projektovanje kamatne stope centralna važnost upravljanja odnosom aktiva - pasiva.
Computer simulation models predict
future revenues based Bank of certainty assumptions about future economic environment and the specifics of implemented decisions on assets and liabilities of the bank.
Some models require the bank forecast the
optimal size and composition of its balance
sheet. Sensitivity of the bank’s balance sheet
to interest rate can be reduced, if not eliminated, by establishing a balance of maturity on
opposite sides of bank balance sheets. However, if the expectations are convincing, that
the interest rate will be specified in a particular direction, poor grandma can direct your
balance in order to make a profit from this
development. Therefore, the design of the interest rate the central importance of managing
the assets-liabilities ratio.
Kompjuterska simulacija i sofisticirana analiza sa matricom odlučivanja omogućavaju razumijevanje menadžment politike rizika kamatne stope. Pri tome treba imati u vidu
da simulaciona kompjuterska tehnika nije bez
troškova (investicije u hardver, zatim u softver i navike odgovornih lica na novu tehnologiju). Međutim, kad se u banci shvati korist
od kompjuterske simulacije, nema banke koja
će se vratiti na ranije korišćene ekstenzivne
metode.
Computer simulation and sophisticated analysis of the decision matrix enables
understanding of the management of interest
rate policy. However, it should be borne in
mind that a computer simulation technique is
not without costs (investments in hardware,
software, and then the habits of responsible
persons to the new technology). However,
when the bank realizes the benefits of computer simulations, no bank will return to the
previously used extensive methods.
GAP analiza osjetljivosti banke
na kamatni rizik
GAP analysis of the bank’s sensitivity
to interest rate risk
Vunjak (2006) navodi da, ukoliko ne
postoji ravnoteža između kamatno osjetljive
aktive i pasive koja je podložna promjenama
kamatne stope, kao rezultanta se pojavljuje jaz
osjetljiv na kamatnu stopu. Jaz je dio bilansa
koji je pogođen kamatnim rizikom. GAP analiza je tradicionalno sredstvo upravljanja rizikom kamatne stope. Upravljanje GAP pozicijom banke podrazumijeva upravljanje kamatno
osjetljivom aktivom i kamatno osjetljivom pa-
Vunjak (2006) according to if there is
a balance between interest rate sensitive assets and liabilities that are subject to interest
rate changes, as well as the resultant gap appears sensitive to the interest rate. The gap is
part of the balance that is affected by interest
rate risk. GAP Analysis is a traditional means
of managing interest rate risk. GAP management position of a bank means of interest rate
sensitive assets and interest-bearing liabilities
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B. Stevanović: METODE MJERENJA KAMATNOG RIZIKA U BANKAMA
sivom u cilju ostvarivanja zadovoljavajućeg
neto kamatnog prihoda. Neto kamatni prihod
i neto kamatna margina su simptomi za upravljanje odnosima aktiva - pasiva. Važno je saznati šta stoji iza tih simptoma koji prouzrokuju „dobre“ i “loše“ performanse. Kamatne
stope predstavljaju ključne determinante neto
kamatnog prihoda i neto kamatne margine.
Menadžment „tim“ banke ima obavezu da vrši
kontrolu „GAP“-a bilansa banke, kao odnosa
između njene kamatno osjetljive aktive i njene
kamatno osjetljive pasive.
in order to achieve a satisfactory net interest
income. Net interest income and net interest
margin are the symptoms of relationship management assets - liabilities. It is important to
find out what’s behind these symptoms that
cause “good” and “bad” performance. Interest rates are key determinants of net interest
income and net interest margin. Management
“team” of the bank is required to control the
“GAP” a bank’s balance sheet, as well as the
relationship between its interest-sensitive assets and its interest-sensitive liabilities.
GAP sredstava u bilansu banke se
mjere pomoću sljedeće jednačine:
GAP assets in the bank’s balance sheet
are measured by the following equation:
GAP=ISA–ISL
pri čemu su: GAP - gep, razmak, jaz, raskorak; ISA - kamatno osjetljiva ili senzitivna
aktiva („interest-sensitive assets“); ISL - kamatno osjetljiva ili senzitivna pasiva („interest - sensitive liabilities“).
where: GAP gap, gap, gap, gap; ISA interest-sensitive or sensitive assets (“interest-sensitive assets”); ISL - sensitive or interest
- sensitive liabilities (“interest - sensitive liabilities”).
Kada se banka nalazi u nultoj GAP poziciji, nema opasnosti da će banka biti izložena riziku promjene kamatne stope. Međutim,
ova pozicija je više teorijskog karaktera, pošto se u praksi teško može ostvariti. Zato su,
sa aspekta bankarske prakse, važnije pozitivna i negativna GAP pozicija. GAP osjetljivost
banke na promjenu kamatne stope predstavlja
razliku između vrijednosti kamatno osjetljive
aktive i kamatno osjetljive pasive banke.
When a bank is in position zero GAP,
there is no risk that the bank will be exposed
to changes in interest rates. However, this
position is more theoretical, since in practice
it is difficult to achieve. Therefore, from the
aspect of banking practice important positive and negative GAP position. GAP of the
Bank’s interest rate is the difference between
the value of interest-sensitive assets and interest sensitive liabilities.
Ako u svakom planiranom periodu
(dnevno, sedmično, mjesečno, kvartalno itd.)
iznos aktive osjetljive na kamatu premašuje
iznos pasive osjetljive na kamatu, a koja podliježe ponovnom formiranju cijene, smatra se
da takva institucija ima pozitivan jaz i da je
osjetljiva na aktivu. Ukoliko dođe do porasta
kamatnih stopa, neto kamatna marža (net - interest margin) banke će se povećati zbog toga
što će se prihodi od kamata koje je generisala
aktiva banke povećati više nego što će se povećati troškovi posuđenih sredstava. Ako su
sve ostale stavke jednake, banka će doživjeti povećanje svog neto prihoda od kamata. S
druge strane, ako kamatne stope padnu u periodu kada je banka osjetljiva na aktivu, tada
If each planning period (daily, weekly,
monthly, quarterly, etc.)., The amount of interest rate sensitive assets exceeds the amount
of liabilities sensitive to interest rate, which
is subject to re-pricing, it is considered that
such an institution has a positive gap and is
sensitive to the assets . If there is a rise in interest rates, the net interest margin (net interest margin) of the bank will increase because
there will be interest income generated by the
assets of the bank increased more than it will
increase the cost of borrowed funds. If all
other items being equal, the bank will experience increasing its net interest income. On
the other hand, if interest rates fall at a time
when the bank is sensitive to the assets, then
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B. Stevanović: METHODS OF MEASURING INTEREST RATE RISK IN BANKS
će se neto kamatna marža banke smanjiti jer
prihodi od kamata na aktivu padaju više nego
što padaju troškovi vezani uz pasivu. Obrnuto, ako u svakom planiranom periodu (dnevno, sedmično, mjesečno, kvartalno itd.), iznos
pasive osjetljive na kamatu premašuje iznos
aktive osjetljive na kamatu koja podliježe ponovnom formiranju cijene, smatra se da takva
institucija ima negativan jaz i da je osjetljiva
na pasivu. Drugim riječima, GAP je negativan
ako promjene kamatnih stopa u većoj mjeri
utiču na pasivu, što se odražava u većoj mjeri
na obaveze nego na plasmane i manifestuje se
kao rizik u slučaju rasta kamatne stope.
the net interest margin for banks to reduce
interest income on assets fall more than falling costs related liabilities. Conversely, if in
each planning period (daily, weekly, monthly, quarterly, etc.), the amount of liabilities
sensitive to interest rate sensitive assets exceeds the amount of interest that is subject to
re-pricing, it is considered that such an institution has a negative gap and is vulnerable to
passive. In other words, the GAP is negative
if the interest rate to a greater extent affect the
liabilities, as reflected by a greater extent than
the obligations on loans and manifests itself
as a risk in the event of a rise in interest rates.
Negativan jaz implicira sljedeću situaciju: rastuće kamatne stope će smanjiti neto
kamatnu maržu banke zato što će rast troškova koji se odnose na pasivu osjetljivu na
kamatu biti veći od rasta prihoda od kamate
koji se odnose na aktivu osjetljivu na kamatu.
Opadanje kamatnih stopa će dovesti do povećanja neto kamatne marže i prihoda zato što
će se troškovi zaduživanja smanjiti više nego
prihodi od kamata. U poziciji kada je GAP
jednak nuli, odnosno kada ga nema u bilansu, banka nije izložena riziku kamatne stope.
Ipak, to je više teorijski moguće, nego što je u
praksi zastupljeno. Moguće je utvrditi i koeficijent relativnog IS GAP-a:
A negative gap implies the following situation: rising interest rates will reduce
the bank’s net interest margin, because the
increase in costs related to interest-sensitive
liabilities exceed the rate of interest income
related to interest-sensitive assets. The decline in interest rates will lead to an increase
in net interest margin and income, because it
will reduce the cost of borrowing more than
interest income. The position where the GAP
is zero, ie when it is not in balance, the bank
is not exposed to interest rate risk. However,
it is more theoretically possible, but which in
practice is represented. It is possible to determine the coefficient of relative IS GAP:
Relativni IS GAP = IS GAP / ukupna
veličina banke
Relative GAP IS = IS GAP / total size
of banks
pri čemu se veličina banke mjeri iznosom
ukupne aktive. Relativni IS GAP veći od nule
znači da je institucija osjetljiva na aktivu, dok
negativni relativni IS GAP ukazuje na osjetljivost finansijske institucije na pasivu. Ukoliko
su nam dostupni podaci o ukupnom iznosu
kamatno osjetljive aktive i podaci o veličini
pasive osjetljive na kamatu, možemo izračunati i pokazatelj kamatne osjetljivosti (koeficijent rizika kamatne stope). Stoga, GAP se
može izraziti i koeficijentom rizika kamatne
stope, koji se izračunava pomoću sljedeće
jednačine:
with the size of the bank measured the amount
of total assets. Relative GAP IS greater than
zero means that the institution is sensitive assets, while negative relative GAP IS indicates
the sensitivity of the liabilities of financial
institutions. If we have data available on the
total amount of interest rate sensitive assets
and liabilities of the data on the size of the interest-sensitive, we can calculate an indicator
of the interest sensitivity (ratio of interest rate
risk). Therefore, the GAP can be expressed
and the coefficient of interest rate risk, which
is calculated by the following equation:
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B. Stevanović: METODE MJERENJA KAMATNOG RIZIKA U BANKAMA
gdje je: i = koeficijent rizika kamatne stope,
RSL = kamatno osjetljiva aktiva, RSL = kamatno osjetljiva pasiva. U slučaju da je “i” manji
od 1, radi se o finansijskoj instituciji osjetljivoj
na pasivu, dok “i” veći od 1, označava finansijsku instituciju osjetljivu na aktivu.
where: i = coefficient of interest rate risk,
RSL = interest-bearing assets, RSL = interest-bearing liabilities. If the “and” is less than
1 it is a financial institution sensitive to the liabilities, while “and” greater than 1 indicates
a financial institution-sensitive assets.
U praksi, nulti jaz ne otklanja cjelokupni kamatni rizik, budući da kamatne stope koje se odnose na aktivu i pasivu, u realnim okolnostima, nisu u savršenoj korelaciji.
Na primjer, kamatne stope na kredite imaju
tendenciju zaostajanja za kamatnim stopama koje su zaračunate na izvore sredstava.
Tako prihodi banke koje produkuju kamatne
stope opadaju brže od troškova tokom ekonomske ekspanzije, dok se kamatni troškovi
brže smanjuju od prihoda tokom ekonomskih
kretanja prema nižim nivoima cijena. Metode
određivanja jaza zahtijevaju od uprave banke
donošenje važnih odluka: (1) izbor perioda
tokom kojeg će se upravljati neto kamatnom
maržom banke i određivanje subperioda na
koje se planirani period treba podijeliti, (2)
odabir ciljnog nivoa za neto kamatne marže,
što znači da li treba zamrznuti maržu na nivou
na kojem se trenutno nalazi ili je želi uvećati,
(3) ukoliko želi uvećati postojeći nivo neto
kamatne marže, mora precizno predvidjeti
kretanje kamatnih stopa, ili pronaći način za
ponovnu alokaciju prihodonosne aktive i pasive da bi se povećala razlika između prihoda od kamata i kamatnih troškova, (4) mora
utvrditi novčani volumen aktive osjetljive na
kamatu i pasive osjetljive na kamatu.
In practice, the zero gap does not eliminate the overall interest rate risk, as the interest rates that apply to assets and liabilities,
in the real world, are not perfectly correlated.
For example, interest rates on loans tend to lag
behind the interest rates which are invoiced to
the sources of funds. Thus, income-producing
bank interest rates are falling faster than costs
during the economic boom, while interest expenses decreased faster than revenues during
the economic trends to lower price levels.
Methods for determination of the demand
gap of the bank making important decisions:
(1) the choice of time during which the managed net interest margin and bank subperioda
determination that the planned period should
be divided, (2) selecting the target level of
net interest margin, which means whether to
freeze the margin at a level that is currently
or wishes to increase, and (3) if it is to increase the current level of net interest margin,
must accurately predict the movement of interest rates, or find a way to re-allocation of
assets and liabilities, income-to increase the
difference between interest income and interest expense, (4) must determine the volume of
cash in interest-sensitive assets and liabilities
sensitive to interest.
Ukoliko želimo odrediti ukupnu izloženost banke riziku kamatne stope, kao korisnu mjeru primjenjujemo kumulativni jaz.
Kumulativni jaz je ukupna razlika u novčanim iznosima između aktive i pasive banke
kojima se tokom određenog perioda može
promijeniti cijena.
If we want to determine the total bank
exposure to interest rate risk as a useful measure apply the cumulative gap. Cumulative
gap is the total difference in the amount between the assets and liabilities of the bank
which over a period of time can change the
price.
Koncept kumulativnog jaza omogućava da, uz bilo koju promjenu tržišnih kamatnih stopa, možemo izračunati približno
na koji način će ta promjena uticati na neto
prihod banke od kamata. Odnos se izračunava
na sljedeći način:
The concept of cumulative gap to
obtain, with any changes in market interest
rates, we can calculate approximately how
the change will affect the net interest income
of the bank. The ratio is calculated as follows:
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B. Stevanović: METHODS OF MEASURING INTEREST RATE RISK IN BANKS
Promjena neto prihoda banke od kamata = Ukupna promjena kamatnih stopa u
postotnim bodovima / Veličina kumulativnog
jaza u novčanim jedinicama.
Change in net interest income of the
bank = Total change in interest rates in percentage points / cumulative size of the gap in
monetary units
Da bi se zaštitila od porasta kamatnih
stopa i eliminisala prijeteći gubitak u prihodima, banka vrši razmješta dio aktive i dio
pasive kako bi se smanjila veličina kumulativnog jaza, ili koristi instrumente za hedžiranje. Banke koje imaju negativan kumulativni
jaz, koristiće opadanje kamatnih stopa, što će
opet rezultirati smanjivanjem neto prihoda od
kamata kada kamate porastu. Banke sa pozitivnim kumulativnim jazom iskoristiće rast
kamatnih stopa, ali njihov se neto prihod smanjuje ako su podložne padu kamatnih stopa.
Neke banke svjesno manipulišu svojim kamatno osjetljivim jazom, tako da su ili osjetljive na aktivu ili pasivu, što zavisi od stepena
povjerenja u sopstvena predviđanja kretanja
kamatnih stopa. Takvo djelovanje se često naziva agresivno upravljanje jazom.
In order to protect against rising interest rates and eliminate the threatening loss of
income, the bank carries out the deployment
share of assets and some liabilities to reduce
the size of the cumulative gap, or instruments
used for hedging. Banks with a negative cumulative gap will use decline in interest rates
which in turn will result in a reduction in
net interest income when interest rates rise.
Banks with positive cumulative gap will use
higher interest rates, but their net income is
reduced if they are subject to lower interest
rates. Some banks deliberately manipulate
their interest sensitive gap, so that they are
either sensitive to the assets or liabilities, depending on the degree of confidence in their
own predictions of interest rates. Such action
is often called aggressive management gap.
Duration model mjerenja
kamatnog rizika
Duration model for measuring
interest rate risk
Prethodno se govorilo o jazu osjetljivom na kamatu koji izlaže banke mogućnosti
gubitka u odnosu na maržu neto kamate banke, kao i mogućnosti smanjenja marže uslijed
promjena u tržišnim kamatnim stopama. Promjenljive kamatne stope takođe mogu ugroziti
još jedan aspekt poslovanja banke – njenu neto
vrijednost, vrijednost investicija vlasnika kapitala banke. Kada je marža neto kamate zaštićena od kamatnog rizika, to ne znači da je i neto
vrijednost banke zaštićena od gubitka. Da bi se
i to postiglo, treba primijeniti još jedan metod
upravljanja rizikom kamatne stope – upravljanje jazom trajanja. Trajanje je vrijednosna i
vremenska mjera dospijeća koja podrazumijeva vremenski aspekt svih priliva gotovine od
prihodovne aktive, kao i svih odliva gotovine
vezanih za pasivu. Trajanje je i mjera prosjeka dospijeća očekivanih budućih gotovinskih
plaćanja. Ćurčić (2010) definiše trajanje kao
mjeru prosječnog vremena koje je potrebno za
naplatu sredstava uloženih u jednu investiciju.
Previously discussed were sensitive to
interest rate gap that exposes the bank possibilities of loss to the bank net interest margins,
as well as opportunities to reduce margins due
to changes in market interest rates. Variable
interest rates may also undermine another aspect of the bank – its net worth, the value of
shareholders investment bank. When the net
interest margin is being protected from interest rate risk does not mean that the net value
of the bank is protected from loss. In order to
achieve this and, should apply another method
of managing interest rate risk - management
gap duration. Duration is a value measure of
maturity and time that includes the time aspect of the cash inflows from revenue assets,
as well as all cash outflows related liabilities.
Duration is a measure of the average maturity
of the expected future cash payments. Curcic
(2010) defined as the measure of the average
length of time required for the collection of
funds invested in a single investment. Life cy87
B. Stevanović: METODE MJERENJA KAMATNOG RIZIKA U BANKAMA
Model životnog vijeka bilansnih pozicija ili
duration model se zasniva na analizi ponderisanih prosječnih rokova dospijeća plasmana i
obaveza banke. Pri tome je važno istaći da je
za analizu rizika kamatne stope najvažnije to
što životni vijek ima inverznu linearnu vezu sa
osjetljivošću cijena na promjene kamatne stope. To nije slučaj sa rokom dospijeća. Vunjak
(2006) konstatuje da duži životni vijek znači
veću osjetljivost cijene plasmana na promjene kamatne stope i obrnuto, kraći životni vijek znači da promjene kamatne stope u manjoj
mjeri utiču na cijenu plasmana.
cle model of balance sheet items or duration
model is based on an analysis of weighted
average maturities of assets and liabilities of
the bank. It is important to emphasize that the
analysis of interest rate risk important, the life
expectancy has an inverse linear relationship
with price sensitivity to changes in interest
rates. Not so with maturity. Vunjak (2006)
notes that longer life expectancy means greater sensitivity of loans to changes in interest
rates and, conversely, a shorter life expectancy means that the interest rate changes to a
lesser extent, affect the price of loans.
Analiza životnog vijeka koristi se za
mjerenje izloženosti banke riziku kamatne
stope. Postupak se svodi na to da se izračunava životni vijek svih bilansnih pozicija u
aktivi i pasivi banke da bi se sagledao uticaj
promjena kamatne stope na njihove vrijednosti. Pri tome treba imati u vidu da je vrijednost
bilansnih pozicija banke obrnuto proporcionalna njihovom životnom vijeku i promjenama kamatnih stopa i da je za sve bilansne
pozicije banke koje karakteriše veći broj plaćanja životni vijek kraći od roka dospjeća.
Vunjak (2006) objašnjava da GAP osjetljivost
banke na promjene kamatne stope se dobija
kao razlika „životnog vijeka“ aktive i „životnog vijeka“ pasive banke. I kod ovog modela
GAP može biti pozitivan (aktiva banke ima
duži životni vijek od pasive banke), tj. kada je
aktiva banke osjetljivija od pasive na promjene kamatne stope. U obrnutom slučaju, negativan GAP će imati banka sa dužim „životnim vijekom“ pasive. Up2
slučaju da je „životni
vijek“ aktive i pasive banke jednak, GAP je
jednak nuli. Standardna formula za izračunavanje trajanja pojedinačnog finansijskog
instrumenta, kao što su depozit, kredit, vrijednosni papir ili nedepozitna zaduživanja glasi:
Life cycle analysis is used to measure
the bank’s exposure to interest rate risk. The
procedure is tantamount to calculating the
lifetime of balance sheet positions in assets
and liabilities grandmother, to gauge the impact of changes in interest rates on their values. It should be noted that the value of the
balance sheet position of banks is inversely proportional to their lifetime and interest
rate and the balance sheet positions of all the
banks that are characterized by a number of
payment service life is shorter than maturity. Vunjak (2006) explains that GAP of the
Bank’s interest rate is obtained as the difference between “life” of assets and “life” liabilities. And in this model, GAP can be positive
(the bank’s assets have a longer life expectancy of the liabilities of the bank), ie. when the
bank’s assets than liabilities sensitive to interest rate changes. Conversely, a negative GAP
will have a bank with a longer “life span” of
liabilities. In the event that the “lifetime” of
assets and liabilities of the bank equal, GAP
is equal to zero. The standard formula for calculating the duration of a single financial instrument, such as deposits, loans, securities or
non-deposit borrowings as follows:
gdje „D“ predstavlja trajanje određenog instrumenta po godinama, „t“ predstavlja vremenski
period u kojem treba ostvariti tok gotovine po
where “D” is the length of an instrument
for years, “t” represents the time period in
which to achieve cash flow for a financial
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B. Stevanović: METHODS OF MEASURING INTEREST RATE RISK IN BANKS
nekom finansijskom instrumentu, „E(CFt)“
predstavlja obim svake očekivane gotovine u
svakom vremenskom periodu (t), a „YTM“ je
tekući prinos do dospijeća određenog instrumenta. Ova formula se može pojednostaviti:
instrument, “E(CFt)” represents the volume
of each expected cash each time period (t),
and “YTM “the current yield to maturity of
an instrument. This formula can be simplified:
gdje je: TCt - tekuća tržišna cijena. Poznato je
da vrijedi K=A–L , tj. da neto vrijednost nekog preduzeća označava razliku njegove aktive i pasive. Sa promjenom tržišnih kamatnih
stopa dolazi do promjene aktive i pasive banaka, što dovodi do promjena neto vrijednosti
∆K=∆A-∆L. Portfolio teorija u finansijama
znači:
where: TCt-current market price. It is known
that k=A-L, ie. the net value of a company
means the difference of its assets and liabilities. With the change in market interest
rates, a change of assets and liabilities of
banks, leading to changes in the net value ΔK=Aa-ΔL. Portfolio theory in finance
means:
1.
porast tržišnih kamatnih stopa uzrokuje
opadanje tržišne vrijednosti aktive i pasive koje imaju fiksnu stopu,
1.
an increase in market interest rates caused
the decline of the market value of assets
and liabilities that have a fixed rate,
2.
što je dalje dospijeće aktive i pasive banke, veća je mogućnost opadanja tržišne
vrijednosti aktive i pasive sa rastom tržišnih kamatnih stopa.
2.
as far as the maturity of assets and liabilities
of the bank, the greater the possibility of decreasing the market value of assets and liabilities, with the rise in market interest rates.
Promjena u neto vrijednosti će uslijed
promjenljivih kamatnih stopa varirati u zavisnosti od odgovarajućih dospijeća aktive i pasive banke. Analiza trajanja može se koristiti
radi stabilizovanja, imunizacije tržišne vrijednosti neto vrijednosti banke (K).
Change in net worth due to changing
interest rates vary depending on the respective maturities of assets and liabilities of the
bank. Analysis of duration may be used to stabilize, immunization market value of the net
value of the bank (K).
ARBL model mjerenja kamatnog rizika
ARBL model for measuring interest rate risk
ARBL od „asset repriced before liabilities“ je model mjerenja kamatnog rizika kod kojeg je ključni elemenat kategorizacija svih bilansnih pozicija banke prema
vremenu do određivanja novih kamatnih
stopa, što se uvijek ne podudara sa rokom
dospijeća pojedinih blokova aktive i pasive. Izuzetak su samo bilansne pozicije sa
ugovorenim (fiksnim) kamatnim stopama.
Za svaku kategoriju u bilansu se izračunava neto bilans, kao razlika između plasmana i obaveza. Ovi neto bilansi mogu biti
pozitivni, negativni i jednaki nuli. Pozitivan GAP je kad je razlika u korist aktive,
ARBL of “asset repriced before liabilities” is the interest rate risk measurement
model in which a key element of the categorization of all balance sheet position of banks on
time to determine the new interest rate, which
does not always coincide with the maturity
of individual blocks of assets and liabilities.
The only exception are the balance sheet to
the contractual position (fixed) interest rates.
For each category in the statement of net income is calculated as the difference between
assets and liabilities. These net balances can
be positive, negative and zero. GAP is positive when the difference in favor of assets,
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B. Stevanović: METODE MJERENJA KAMATNOG RIZIKA U BANKAMA
negativan kad su razlike u korist pasive i
nulti kad razlike nema.
negative when the difference in the liabilities
and zero when there is no difference.
Vunjak (2006) navodi da je model
korisna analitička kategorija, ali ima i svoje nedostatke. Polazi od pretpostavke da
se aktivne i pasivne kamatne stope kreću
ravnomjerno, što nije realno, a i ne daje bilansno sintetičku ocjenu izloženosti banke
riziku kamatne stope. Radi jasnoće, predstavićemo primjer primjene ARBL modela na jednom hipotetičnom bilansu banke,
koji je podijeljen na 10 kategorija (korpi)
sredstava. Broj kategorija, odnosno korpi
određuje menadžment tim banke rukovodeći se prioritetima planskog horizonta.
Pri tome su najvažniji periodi do godinu
dana, za koje je moguće dati realnije i preciznije projekcije kretanja visine kamatnih
stopa. Menadžment tim banke je bilans
banke podijelio na 10 kategorija sredstava i izvora sredstava: od 1 mjesec, od 2
mjeseca, od 3 mjeseca, od 4 do 6 mjeseci,
od 7 do 12 mjeseci, od 18 mjeseci, od 2
godine, od 3 godine, od 5 godina i preko
10 godina. Banka ima negativan neto bilans u: četvrtoj, petoj, sedmoj, osmoj, devetoj i desetoj kategoriji. U tim kategorijama kamatne stope će se mijenjati za veći
dio pasive nego aktive. S obzirom na to da
se radi o dužim rokovima dospijeća (od
4 do 6 mj., od 7 do 12 mj., od 2 god.,od
3 god., od 5 god., preko 10 god.), banci
bi odgovarao rast kamatnih stopa. Razlog
tome je u činjenici da će se sredstva (zbog
kraćih rokova dospijeća) brže replasirati po višim kamatnim stopama, dok će se
obaveze (u kojima dominiraju duži rokovi mijenjanja kamatnih stopa) sporije
obnavljati po višim kamatnim stopama.
Vunjak (2006) according to the
model is a useful analytical category, but
it has its drawbacks. Based on the assumption that active and passive interest rates
moving uniformly, which is not realistic,
and not giving a synthetic evaluation of
on-balance sheet exposures to interest rate
risk. For clarity, prestavićemo ARBL model
example of the application of a hypothetical bank’s balance sheet, which is divided
into 10 categories (bins) funds. The number of categories, or bins determines the
management team of the Bank is guided by
the priorities of the planning horizon. At
the same time the most important periods
of the year, for which it is possible to give
a more realistic and accurate projections
of interest rates. The management team of
the bank is the bank balance of 10 categories divided the assets and resources: 1
month, 2 months, 3 months, 4 to 6 months
7 to 12 months, 18 months, 2 years, 3 years
, 5 years, and over 10 years. The bank has
a negative net income in the fourth, fifth,
seventh, eighth, ninth and tenth category.
In those categories, the interest rate will
be changed for the better part of liabilities
than assets. Since this is a longer maturities
(from 4 to 6 months., From 7 to 12 months.,
2 yrs., From 3 years., Of 5 years., Over 10
yrs.), Bank to match the growth of interest
rate. The reason for this is the fact that the
funds (due to shorter maturities) replasirati
faster at higher interest rates, while the liabilities (dominated by longer periods altering interest rates) slowly renewed at higher
interest rates.
ZAKLJUČAK
CONCLUSION
Banke moraju imati sisteme za mjerenje kamatnog rizika kojim se obuhvataju
svi značajni izvori kamatnog rizika i procjenjuju učinci promjena kamatnih stopa
u skladu s obimom aktivnosti banaka. Ti
sistemi treba da pruže razumljive poka-
Banks should have a system for
measuring interest rate risk which include
all significant sources of interest rate risk
and assess the effects of changes in interest
rates in line with the scope of banks’ activities. These systems should provide com-
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B. Stevanović: METHODS OF MEASURING INTEREST RATE RISK IN BANKS
zatelje trenutnog nivoa izloženosti banke
kamatnom riziku i moraju biti sposobni da
identifikuju svaku eventualnu prekomjernu
izloženost. U radu su objašnjena nekoliko
modela mjerenja izloženosti kamatnom
riziku: kompjuterske simulacije, analiza
GAP-a, analiza jaza vijeka trajanja i ARBL
model. Kompjuterski modeli simulacije su
napredniji modeli za mjerenje kamatnog
rizika i budućnost mjerenja kamatnog rizika. Koristi od njih što se politika banke
može bazirati na prihvatljivoj varijanti nivoa rizika kamatne stope i što alternativne solucije problema rizika kamatne stope
mogu biti evaluirane korišćenjem modela
matrice za donošenje odluke o izboru strategije upravljanja rizikom kamatne stope.
Osnovni destimulišući faktor koji odbija
banke od primjene ovog modela su visoki
troškovi i ulaganja u hardver, softver i navike odgovornih lica na novu tehnologiju.
Model GAP osjetljivosti banke na kamatni rizik je jednostavan metod mjerenja kamatnog rizika jer se njime izražava razlika
između visine kamatno osjetljive aktive i
kamatno osjetljive pasive za jedan određeni vremenski period, koji se fokusira na uticaj tog jaza na neto kamatnu maržu banke
bez detaljnijih analiza implikacija na neto
vrijednost banke. Da bi se nadomjestio taj
nedostatak, primjenjuje se duration model
mjerenja kamatnog rizika, koji se zasniva
na analizi ponderisanih prosječnih rokova
dospijeća plasmana i obaveza banke. Postupak se svodi na to da se izračunava životni vijek svih bilansnih pozicija u aktivi
i pasivi banke da bi se sagledao uticaj promjena kamatne stope na njihove vrijednosti. ARBL model mjerenja kamatnog rizika
je jedna vrsta mjerenja GAP osjetljivosti
na kamatni rizik i predstavlja kategorizaciju svih bilansnih pozicija banke prema
vremenu do određivanja novih kamatnih
stopa. Nedostatak mu je što polazi od pretpostavke da se aktivne i pasivne kamatne
stope kreću ravnomjerno, što je nerealno, a
i ne daje bilansno sintetičku ocjenu izloženosti banke riziku kamatne stope.
prehensible indicators of the current level
of the bank’s exposure to interest rate risk
and must be able to identify any possible
over-exposure. The paper presents several models of measurement of interest rate
risk: computer simulation analysis of GAP,
gap analysis and life ARBL model. Computer simulation models are more advanced
models for the measurement of interest rate
risk and future measurement of interest rate
risk. Use of them as the bank’s policy to be
based on an acceptable version levels of
interest rate risk and the alternative solutions the problem of interest rate risk can
be evaluated using the model matrix for deciding on the strategy for managing interest
rate risk. The main deterrent factor that the
bank refuses the application of this model
is the high cost and investment in hardware,
software, and habits of responsible persons
to the new technology. GAP model of the
Bank’s interest rate risk is a simple method
of measuring interest rate risk because it expresses the difference between the amount
of interest rate sensitive assets and interest
sensitive liabilities for a specified period
of time, focusing on the impact of this gap
on the net interest margin banks without
detailed analysis of the implications of net
value of the bank. To compensate for the
lack of applicable duration model for measuring interest rate risk, which is based on
an analysis of weighted average maturities
of assets and liabilities of the bank. The
procedure is tantamount to calculating the
lifetime of balance sheet positions in assets
and liabilities grandmother, to gauge the
impact of changes in interest rates on their
values. ARBL model for measuring interest
rate risk is a type of measurement GAP sensitivity to interest rate risk and the categorization of all balance sheet position of banks
on time to determine the new interest rate.
The lack of it is that based on the assumption that active and passive interest rates
moving steadily, which is unrealistic, and
not giving a synthetic evaluation of on-balance sheet exposures to interest rate risk.
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B. Stevanović: METODE MJERENJA KAMATNOG RIZIKA U BANKAMA
LITERATURA
LITERATURE
Bazelski odbor za superviziju banaka (2004).
Načela za upravljanje i nadzor nad
kamatnim rizikom. Bazel: Banka za
međunarodna poravnanja.
Basel Committee on Banking Supervision (2004).
Principles for the management and
supervision of interest rate risk. Basel:
Bank for International Settlements
Ćurčić, U. (2010). Upravljanje aktivom
i pasivom banaka. Sarajevo:
Ekonomski fakultet.
Ćurčić, U. (2010). Asset and liability
management of banks. Sarajevo:
Ekonomski fakultet.
Ćurčić, U. (2010). Upravljanje sredstvima
i obavezama banke. Sarajevo:
Ekonomski fakultet
Curcic, U. (2010). Asset and liability
management of banks. Sarajevo:
Ekonomski fakultet.
Ćurčić, U. (2002). Bankarski portfolio
menadžment (drugo prošireno i
prerađeno izdanje). Novi Sad: Feljton.
Ćurčić, U. (2002). The banking portfolio
management (expanded and revised
second edition). Novi Sad: Feljton.
Jović, S. (1990). Bankarstvo. Beograd:
Naučna knjiga.
Jović, S. (1990). Banking. Belgrade:
Beograd: Naučna knjiga.
Krstić, B. (2003). Bankarstvo. Niš:
Ekonomski fakultet.
Krstić, B. (2003). Banking. Niš: Ekonomski
fakultet.
Rose, S. P. (2005). Menadžment
komercijalnih banaka. Zagreb: Mate.
Rose, S., P. (2005). Management of
Commercial Banks. Zagreb: Mate
Rodić, J. (1991). Poslovne finansije.
Beograd: Ekonomika.
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Ekonomika.
Vasiljević, B. (1990). Rizici u bankarstvu.
Beograd: Fokus.
Vasiljević, B. (1990) Risks in the banking
industry. Beograd: Fokus.
Vunjak, N., Kovačević, L. (2006).
Bankarstvo - Bankarski menađžment.
Subotica.
Vunjak, N., Kovačević, L. (2006).
Bankarstvo - Bankarski menađžment
Subotica
Vunjak, N., Kovačević, L. (2009).
Finansijska tržišta i berze. Subotica:
Ekonomski fakultet.
Vunjak, N., Kovačević, L. (2009). Financial
markets and stock exchanges.
Subotica: Ekonomski fakultet.
92
MEĐUNARODNA EKONOMIJA - INTERNATIONAL ECONOMICS
“MADE IN” ILI “MADE BY” U GLOBALNOJ EKONOMIJI - ŠTA JE RJEŠENJE ZA
NACIONALNU EKONOMIJU I IZVOZNO BRENDIRANJE?
“MADE IN” OR “MADE BY” IN GLOBAL ECONOMY - WHAT IS SOLUTION FOR
NATIONAL ECONOMY AND EXPORT BRANDING?
Dr Vladan Nastić*
Alumil Alpro Vlasenica
Izvorni naučni članak
doi 10.7251/OIK1301008N, UDK 339.564:[659.127.8:336.71 Original scientific paper
REZIME
SUMMARY
Proces globalizacije je otvorio čitav
niz pitanja u modernoj ekonomskoj nauci i
praksi. Otvorena pitanja zahtijevaju jasne odgovore i odgovarajuće akcije kako bi se mogli
prilagoditi novom okruženju koje je određeno
globalizacijom. Cilj ovog rada je da da odgovore na pitanja: Koliko ima smisla nacionalno brendiranje u uslovima globalizacije i međunarodne vertikalne proizvodne integracije?
Na osnovu istraživanja nameće se potreba za
pažljivijim vođenjem spoljnotrgovinske politike od strane vlade, a, posebno, u kreiranju
nacionalnih brendova i podršci pri izvoznom
brendiranju. Novo okruženje zahtijeva novi
pristup u upravljanju nacionalnim brendovima. Pažljivom kombinacijom dva koncepta
(“Made in” i “Made by”) obezbjeđuje se dovoljno prostora za izvozno brendiranje. Glavni problem je kako podržati sektor prerađivačke industrije i kako kombinovati privatne i
nacionalne brendove?
Process of globalization opened a
large number of issues in modern economic
science and practice. Opened questions require clear answers and appropriate response
in order to be able to adapt to the new environment defined by globalization. The aim
of this paper is to provide an answer to the
question: How much is the national branding meaningful in terms of globalization and
international vertical integration of production? From the results of research performed
is a need for careful management of foreign
trade policy of the government, and especially in creating and supporting of national export branding. New environment requires a
new approach to managing national brands.
Careful combination of two concepts (“Made
in” and “Made by”) provides enough space
for export branding. Main problem is how to
support manufacturing sector, how to combine private and national brands?
Ključne riječi: nacionalni brendovi, izvozno
brendiranje, globalizacija, trgovinska politika.
Keywords: national brands, export branding,
globalization, trade policy
UVOD
INTRODUCTION
Koliko putа smo kupili proizvod o
kome smo imаli nedovoljno informаcijа
sаmo zbog oznаke made in, ili koliko putа
smo odustаli od kupovine zbog pomenutih
oznаkа, а sve nа bаzi nаšeg subjektivnog
stаvа o zemlji porijeklа proizvodа. Situacija
je slična i kod privatnih brendova, a, naročito, kod proizvoda koje kupujemo prvi put. U
How many times have we bought a
product that we do not have enough information about only on basis label “Made in”,
or how many times we gave up buying because of these labels, all based on our subjective view on the country of origin of the
product. The situation is similar for private
labels, especially for products that we buy
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V. Nastić: “MADE IN” ILI “MADE BY” U GLOBALNOJ EKONOMIJI-ŠTA JE RJEŠENJE ZA NACIONALNU...
većini slučajeva ćemo se opredijeliti za proizvode sa brendom za koji imamo formiran
stav ne ulazeći u pažljviju analizu ponude.
Kombinovanjem privatnog i nacionalnog
brenda naše opredjeljenje za određeni proizvod postaje jače. Odlukа o kupovini nije
donijetа nа osnovu nаše objektivne spoznаje
o bitnim kаrаkteristikаmа proizvodа, već nа
osnovu nаšeg subjektivnog stаvа premа zemlji porijeklа ili pak stava o privatnom brendu. Naravno, naše opredjeljenje za određeni
brend može biti zasnovano i na prethodnom
pozitivnom ili negativnom iskustvu sa proizvodima. U daljoj analizi problema fokus
ćemo primarno zadržati na nacionalnim
brendovima.
for the first time. In most cases, we will opt
for products with the brand for which we
have a position on the issue without going
to analyze offer carefully. By combining
private and national brands our commitment for specific product gets stronger. The
decision to buy is made on the basis of our
objective knowledge of the essential characteristics of the product, but based on our
subjective attitude towards the country of
origin or the attitude of the private brand.
Of course, our commitment to a brand can
be based on the previous positive or negative experience with the products. For further analysis of the problem we will primarily keep focus on the national brands.
Kako bismo ilustrovali suštinu problema,
poslužićemo se sa nekoliko hipotetičkih primjera:
To illustrate the essence of the problem we will use a few hypothetical examples:
1.
Odlučili smo se za kupovinu feta sira. Pošto se radi o proizvodu sa zaštićemnim
geografskim porijeklom, mogli smo da
kupimo feta sir nekog grčkog proizvođača,
ili njegovu kopiju od proizvođača iz drugih zemalja pod drugim nazivom, ali naše
opredjeljenje je da kupimo fetu. Da li je ta
feta grčka? Evidentno je da je proizvedena
u Grčkoj, pošto se radi o zaštićenom geografskom porijeklu. U kontekstu globalne
ekonomije, moguće je da je sir proizveden
od mlijeka u prahu koje je uvezeno iz Danske. Ako tome dodamo i činjenicu da je navedeni sir proizveden u pogonima multinacionalne kompanije „MEGGLE“, onda se
postavlja pitanje u kojoj mjeri taj sir može
nositi oznaku „made in Greece“? Možemo
zaključiti da je taj sir grčki samo onim dijelom kolika je proporcionalna vrijendost
angažovanog grčkog rada u vrijednosti
finalnog proizvoda. Najrealnije bi bilo da
kupljena feta može da nosi oznaku „made
by Meggle“ ili „made by x capital“. Ko ima
najveću korist od upotrebe brenda feta?
1.
We decided to buy Feta cheese. Since
it is a product with protected geographical origin we could buy Feta cheese
from Greek producers, or copy of the
manufacturers of other countries under
different name, but our commitment
is to buy Feta. Is Feta Greek? There is
evident that it is produced in Greece,
as protected geographical origin. In
the context of the global economy, it
is possible that cheese is made from
milk powder that was imported from
Denmark. If we add the fact that the
aforementioned cheese is produced in
the plants of multinational companies
“MEGGLE,” then the question is to
what extent the cheese can be labeled
“made in Greece”? We can conclude
it is Greek cheese only in level of value engaged work in final product. The
most realistic would be Feta cheese can
be labeled “made by Meggle” or “made
by x capital”. Who has the greatest benefit from the use of brand Feta?
2.
Kupujemo deterdžent za pranje rublja i
naša odluka je Henkelov „Persil“. Takvu
odluku smo donijeli na osnovu našeg
uvjerenja da Henkel obezbjeđuje vrhunski kvalitet. Oznaka zemlje porijekla,
2.
We bought laundry detergent and
our decision was Henkel “Persil”.
We made such decision based on
our belief that Henkel provides superior quality. Label the country of
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V. Nastić: “MADE IN” OR “MADE BY” IN GLOBAL ECONOMY-WHAT IS SOLUTION FOR NATIONAL...
tj. „made in Serbia“ nam nije bila ni od
kakve važnosti pošto je naše povjerenje
u Henkel potpuno. U ovom primjeru
imamo da je privatni brend, tj. „Henkel“
mnogo jači od nacionalnog označavanja,
tj. u ovakvom slučaju nacionalno označavanje nema nikakav smisao u kontekstu podrške privatnom brendu. „Persil“ je
proizveden u Srbiji uz upotrebu sirovina
iz Henkelovih postrojenja širom svijeta.
Takođe, znanje ugrađeno u „Persil“ nije
rezultat srpskog razvoja, nego njemačkog. Najzačajniji proizvodni faktor kapital nije srpskog porijekla. Sumirajući ove
činjenice, ne možemo reći da je „Persil“
proizveden u Henkelovim pogonima u
Srbiji, srpski proizvod. „Persil“ je „made
by Henkel“.
origin ie. “Made in Serbia” has not
been of no importance because our
confidence in the Henkel brand. In
this example, we have a brand that
is private. The national mark has no
any importance in the context of supporting the private brand. “Persil” is
made in Serbia, with the use of raw
materials from Henkel plants worldwide. Also, the knowledge embedded
in the “Persil” is not the result of Serbian development, but German. The
most significant factor of production
is capital that is not Serbian. Summarizing these facts, we cannot say
that “Persil” is produced by Henkel
in Serbia, Serbian product. “Persil” is
“made by Henkel.”
3.
Donijeli smo odluku da kupimo računar
IBM kupujući američki kvalitet i prestižnu tehnologiju, a ne računar sa brendom kineske kompanije, mada drugi ima
značajno nižu cijenu i raspolaže sa boljim performansama. Međutim, i jedan
i drugi računar nose oznaku „made in
China“. Ako detaljnije analiziramo ovu
situaciju, onda ćemo uvidjeti da su oba
računara razvijena u silikonskoj dolini
u USA, sklapaju se u istim proizvodnim
postrojenjima u Kini, uz korištenje uvoznih komponenti od istih proizvođača iz
Japana, Južne Koreje i Tajvana. Razlika
između ova dva računara je u tržišnoj
vrijednosti privatnog Brenda, a što se reflektuje na maloprodajnu cijenu. Koji je
od ova dva računara više kineski ili više
američki?
3.
We made decision to buy IBM PC buying American quality and prestigious
technology and not a computer brand
with Chinese companies, while the other has much lower price and has better
performance. However, both computers
are labeled “made in China”. If we analyze further this situation, we will see
that both computers were developed in
Silicon Valley in the USA, assembled
in the same manufacturing facilities in
China, with use of imported components
from the same manufacturer from Japan,
South Korea and Taiwan. The difference
between two computers in the market is
value of pri-vate brands, and that is reflected in the retail price. Which of these
two com-puters are more Chinese or
more American?
4.
Opredijelili smo se za ljetovanje u Turskoj u hotelu sa vrhunskom uslugom.
Naravno, hotel je lociran u Turskoj na
truskim plažama, ali je vlasnik hotela
francuska kompanija. U hotelu se služe
hrana i piće čije je porijeklo iz evropskih
država i to primarno iz zemalja EU. Njaveći dio opreme u hotelu je evropskog
porijekla. Kupili smo tursku destinaciju
za odmor, ali smo u maloj mjeri dobili
tursku uslugu.
4.
We are committed to holidays in Turkey
at the hotel with top service. Of course,
the hotel is located at Turkey beaches,
but the owner of the hotel is French company. The hotel serves food and drink,
which originate from European countries and particularly from the EU. Most
of the equipment in hotel is European origin. We bought Turkish holiday destination, but we got small degree of Turkish
service.
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Ovakvih kontroverznih primjera bismo mogli navesti još monogo, ali je cilj bio
da se ilustruje kompleksnost problema sa
kojim se suočavamo u nacionalnom brendiranju. Nacionalni brend je višedimenzionalna kategorija koja se ne ograničava samo na
izvoz proizvoda i usluga. Poznato je da se on
kreira i koristi u svrhu promovisanja zemlje
kao investicione destinacije, ali i za promovisanje nacionalne kulture. Vrlo često se kreiraju privatni brendovi koji svojim semantičkim
izrazom ukazuju na zemlju porijekla, stvarajući logičku vezu između proizvoda i imidža
zemlje. Zabilježeni su slučajevi da su kompanije van Italije koristile italijanske nazive
kako bi kupca asocirali na prestižan italijanski dizajn, mada u suštini nemaju nikakvu
vezu sa Italijom. Takođe, postoje slučajevi
asociranja na Japan (savremena elektronska
tehnologija), na Njemačku (visok nivo kvaliteta), itd. Prije nego što pristupimo daljnoj
analizi, dajemo nekoliko osnovnih napomena
o brendu, nacionalnom brendu i nacionalnom
imidžu. Domen našeg razmatranja je nacionalno brendiranje u kontekstu promocije
izvoza proizvoda i usluga. U prethodnim hipotetičkim primjerima poistovjećeno je nacionalno označavanje sa nacionalnim brendiranjem, a ovakav pristup je zadržan i u daljem
tekstu. Razlog positovjećivanja je u tome što
nacionalno brendiranje razmatramo u kontekstu promovisanja izvoza. Nacionalno označavanje je dobrovoljna aktivnost i ono nam daje
jasnu informaciju o porijeklu robe. Označavanjem se jasno ukazuje na nacionalno porijeklo robe, a, istovremeno, se uspostavlja veza
sa nacionalnim brendom ili brendovima.
Such controversial examples might
indicate there is still much, but the goal was
to illustrate the complexity of the problems
we face in the national branding. National
brand is multidimensional category, which
is not limited to the export of products and
services. It is known that it is created and
used for the purpose of promoting the country as an investment destination, but also for
the promotion of national culture. Very often
we meet with created private brands whose
semantic expression indicates the country of
origin, creating a logical connection between
the product and the image of the country.
There have been cases of companies outside
Italy using Italian names for customers associated to the prestigious Italian design, but in
fact, they have nothing to do with Italy. There
are also cases of association of Japan (modern electronic technology), of Germany (high
quality), and so on. Before we move on further analysis we give some basic note of the
brand, a national brand and national image.
Domain of our consideration is a national
branding in the context of the promotion of
exports of goods and services. In the previous hypothetical examples we identified the
national labeling with national branding, and
this approach has been retained in the text below. Reason for identification is that national
branding discussed in the context of promoting exports. The national designation is a voluntary activity, and it gives us a clear statement of origin. The labeling clearly indicates
the national origin of goods, while simultaneously establishes the connection with national
brand or brands.
NACIONALNI IMIDŽ I NACIONALNI
BREND
NATIONAL IMAGE AND NATIONAL
BRAND
Imidž zemlje je kompleksnа kаtegorijа čijа аdekvаtnа izgrаdnjа zаhtijevа dobro
plаnirаne, osmišljene i koordinisаne аktivnosti. Problem mjerenja imidža zemlje se rješava rangiranjem, tako da danas imamo nekoliko ranglisti koje daju različite rezultate u
rejtingu zemlje. Pomenućemo dvije rangliste:
Image of the country is a complex category with adequate building requires well
planned, designed and coordinated activities.
The problem of measurement of national image is solved by country ranking, so now we
have several rankings which give different
results in the rating of the country. We shall
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Anholtov National Brand Index (NBI) i EastWest Golbal Index 200. Ovа dvа indeksа su
rаzličito struktuirаnа i koriste rаzličite ulаzne
informаcije tаko dа dаju i rаzličite rezultаte u
rаngirаnju zemаljа.
mention two rankings: Anholtov National
Brand Index (NBI) and the East-West Golbal
Index 200. These two indices are structured
differently and use different inputs which
give different results in ranking of countries.
Mаrtin i Eroglu (1993) pod imidžom
zemlje smаtrаju skup svih opisnih i informаcionih vjerovаnjа koje pojedinаc imа o
određenoj zemlji. Thаkor i Kаtsаnis (1997)
imidž zemlje definišu kаo skup znаnjа o аsocijаcijаmа rаzličite kompleksnosti i snаge o
određenoj zemlji. Ove аsocijаcije podrаzumijevаju i izgrаđene stereotipe o zemlji koji
su sveobuhvаtni i doprinose širenju određenih vjerovаnjа i stаvovа o zemlji. Nаcionаlni
imidž obuhvаtа: vrijednost zemlje i nemаterijаlnu imovinu vezаnu zа zemlju. Vrijednost
zemlje predstаvljа udio potrošаčeve sklonosti kа brendu ili proizvodu koji je izveden
iz grupe proizvodа vezаnih zа određenu zemlju. Nemаterijаlnа imovinа podrаzumijevа
аsocijаciju nа zemlju kojа odrаžаvа sud o
dimenzijаmа kvаlitetа koje zemljа verifikuje
putem izvoza. Nаime, nemаterijаlnа imovinа
nаcionаlnog imidžа je ekvivаlentnа stаvu
potrošаčа o rаzlici u vrijednosti koju dobijа
opredjeljenjem zа određeni nаcionаlni brend.
Dvа su osnovnа efektа imidžа zemlje: „Hаlo“
efekаt i sumаrni efekаt. „Hаlo“ efekаt je prisutаn kаdа potrošаč formirа svoj stаv o proizvodu prije njegove kupovine. Sumаrni efekаt
predstаvljа shvаtаnje zemlje nа bаzi аkomulirаnih iskustаvа sа proizvodimа i brendovimа
iz određene zemlje. Ovа dvа efektа nаcionаlnog imidžа su u interаkciji i doprinose boljem
prihvаtаnju proizvodа sа nаcionаlnim predznаkom. Nаcionаlni imidž je dinаmičnа kаtegorijа kojа je podložnа stаlnim nаmjernim i
nenаmjernim promjenаmа. U izgrаdnji nаcionаlnog imidžа učestvuje čitаv skup nаcionаlnih institucijа, bаveći se imidžom zemlje
svаkа iz svog аpsektа.
Martin and Eroglu (1993), under the
image of the country consider the set of all descriptive information and belief that an individual has about a particular country. Thakor and
Katsanis (1997) define the country’s image as
a collection of knowledge on associations of
varying complexity and strength of a country.
These associations imply constructed stereotypes of the country that are comprehensive and
contribute to the spread of certain beliefs and
attitudes about the country. National image includes: value of country and intangible assets
related to the country. The value of country’s
share of the consumer’s preference for brand or
product that is derived from a group of products
related to a specific country. Intangible asset entail the association of a country that reflects the
judgment of the level of quality that verifies the
country through exports. The intangible asset of
the national image is equivalent to the attitude
of consumers in the difference between values
received by the commitment to a national brand.
There are two main effects of the country’s
image, “halo” effect and the summary effect.
“Halo” effect is present when consumers form
their opinion about the product before they buy
it. The summary effect is the comprehension
of country based on accu-mulated experiences
with products and brands in a specific country.
These two effects of national image interact and
contribute to better acceptance of the product
with a national prefix. National image is a dynamic category that is subject to constant intentional and unintentional changes. The building
of national image involves a group of national
institutions dealing with the image of the country, each with its aspects.
Ishodište аktivnosti nа promovisаnju zemlje i izgrаdnji nаcionаlnog imidžа je
izgrаdnjа nаcionаlnog brendа. U literаturi
postoje rаzličite definicije brendа tаko dа se
brend (mаrkа) definiše kаo holističkа sumа
svih podаtаkа o proizvodimа ili grupаmа
Goal of activities in promotion of the
country and building a national image is building a national brand. In the literature there are
different definitions of the brand so that the
brand is defined as the sum of holistic information about the products or product groups
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proizvodа rаdi poboljšаnjа vjerodostojnosti
i rejtingа orgаnizаcije, ili brend predstаvljа prepoznаtljivu oznаku ili ime određenog proizvodа, stvаrаjući snаžаn i trаjаn
identitet proizvodа ili usluge i predstаvljа
posebnost kompаnije i podstiče osjećаje
povjerenjа, korisnosti i sigurnosti. Bitnа
kаrаkteristikа je što on diferencirа proizvod, uslugu ili kompаniju od ostаlih konkurenаtа nа tržištu. Funkcijа brendа je dа
svojim identitetom prenese određenu poruku potrošаčimа i dа stvori određenu sliku
u potrošаčevom doživljаvаnju brendа. Ističemo dvа vаžnа аspektа brendа: (1) iskustveni, koji predstаvljа skup svih dodirnih
tаčаkа sа brendom; (2) psihološki, simboličkа konstrukcijа kreirаnа u mišljenju ljudi
i sаdrži sve informаcije i očekivаnjа kojа
аsocirаju nа proizvod ili uslugu.
in order to improve the credibility and rating
organization, or a recognizable brand name or
label of a product, creating a strong and lasting
identity of the product or service and a special company and encourages feelings of trust,
usefulness and safety. An important feature
is that it differentiates the product, service or
company from other competitors in the market. The function of a brand is to communicate
its identity through a certain message to consumers and to create a specific image in the
consumer’s perception of the brand. We point
out two important aspects of the brand: (1) Experiential aspect, which is the set of all points
of contact with the brand. (2) Psychological
aspect, which is symbolic structures created in
the opinion of the people and contains all the
information and expectations associated with a
product or service.
Ne ulаzeći u detаljniju klаsifikаciju brendovа, mi ćemo nаvesti dvije osnovne
grupe brendovа: krovni ili grupni brendovi
i pojedinаčni brendovi. Krovni brendovi se
odnose nа grupu proizvodа ili nа čitаvu kompаniju ili određenu privrednu grаnu ili pаk nа
određeni geogrаfski prostor. Nаcionаlni brend
svrstаvаmo u ovu grupu. Pojedinаčni brendovi
se vezuju sа po-jedinаčnim proizvodimа ili sа
pojedinаčnim kompаnijаmа prisutnim u jednoj
uskoj privrednoj grаni. Imidž zemlje je u jаkoj
interаkciji sа nаcionаlnim brendom tаko dа postoji njihovа velikа međuzаvisnost, povezаnost
i međusobno djelovаnje. Postoji velikа rаzlikа
u izgrаdnji nаcionаlnog brendа i pojedinаčnog
brendа. Nаime, specifičnost izgrаdnje nаcionаlnog brendа je sаdržаnа u sljedećem:
Without going into a detailed classification of the brands we listed two main
groups of brands: roof or group brands and
individual brands. Group brand is related with
a group of products or the entire company or
a specific economic sector or a particular geographic area. National brand is classified in
this group. Individual brands are associated
with individual products or individual companies present in a particular sector. Image
of the country is in a strong interaction with
national brand, so there is their big interdependence, connectivity and interoperability.
There is a big difference between building a
national brand and individual brand, the specificity construction of the national brand is
contained in the following:
1.
Pri kreirаnju pojedinаčnih brendovа, moguće je sprovesti bilo koju аktivnost kojа
podrаzumijevа i povlаčenje proizvodа sа
tržištа, unаprijediti i modifikovаti brend,
ukinuti postojeći i uvesti novi brend. Sve
ove аktivnosti nije moguće sprovesti pri
kreirаnju nаcionаlnog brendа.
1.
When creating individual brands, it is
possible to carry out any activity that involves withdrawal from the market, enhance and modify the brand, to abolish
existing and introduce new brand. All
of these activities cannot be performed
when creating a national brand.
2.
Kod nаcionаlnih brendovа postoji problem mjerenjа efikаsnosti. Zbog rаzličitih interesа, pojedini аspekti brendа nemаju istu relаtivnu vrijednost zа
2.
For national brands there is a problem
of measuring efficiency. Due to different interests, aspects of the brand have
not the same relative value for different
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rаzličite institucije, tаko dа postoji problem u definisаnju kriterijumа zа ocjenu
efikаsnosti.
institutions so that there is a problem in
defining the criteria for assessing the effectiveness.
3.
Nаcionаlno brendirаnje podrаzumijevа
superviziju i koordinаciju jedne institu-cije tаko dа onа direktno diktirа аkti-vnosti učesnikа procesа.
3.
National branding asked supervision and
coordination from the one institu-tion so
that it directly dictates the activ-ities of
institutions involved in the process.
4.
Mаrketаri imаju mаnju mogućnost kontrolisаnjа nаcionаlnog brendа u odnosu
nа pojedinаčni brend. Nаcionаlni brend
ima problem nekontrolisаnih informаcijа o brendu, što nije slučаj kod pojedinаčnog brendа.
4.
Marketers have less ability to control the
national brand in relation to a particular
brand. As the national brand is a problem of uncontrolled information on the
brand, which is not the case of single
brand.
Dаnаs se kаo lideri u sistemаtskom
i plаnskom uspostаvljаnju i vođenju nаcionаlnog brendа ističu: Novi Zelаnd, Singаpur
i Jаpаn. U primjeru Novog Zelаndа nosilаc
аktivnosti nа izgrаdnji nаcionаlnog brendа
je Odbor zа rаzvoj trgovine. Slogаn novozelаndskog nаcionаlnog brendа je The New
Zealand Way NZW. Nаcionаlni brend kаo
krovni brend doprinosi smаnjenju rizikа pri
uvođenju novih proizvodа nа tržište i poboljšаvа stаv o kvаlitetu i kаrаkteristikаmа
novih proizvodа. Krovni brend prenosi svoje
kаrаkteristike nа sve proizvode koji se nаlаze
pod njegovim okriljem, pojаčаvа pojedinаčne
brendove mаnje vrijednosti, а, s druge strаne,
i pojedinаčni brendovi imаju uticаj nа poboljšаnje nаcionаlnog brendа.
Today, as leaders in a systematic and
planned establishment and management of
national brand stand out: New Zealand, Singapore and Japan. In the case of New Zealand, the Board of Trade Development is
responsible for activities to build national
brand. The slogan of the New Zealand national brand is: “The New Zealand Way”, NZW.
National brand as an umbrella brand helps to
reduce the risk of introducing new products to
market and improve the position of the qualities and characteristics of new products. Umbrella brand conveys its own characteristics
on all products that are found on its auspices,
enhances individual brands inferiority; on the
other hand, individual brands have an impact
on the improvement of the national brand.
Doprinos teorijskim i praktičnim
osnovama nacionalnog brendiranja dali su
Simon Anholt, Wally Olins, Philip Kothler i
drugi.
Contribution to the theoretical and
practical basis of national branding gave Simon Anholt, Wally Olins, Philip Kothler and
others.
PROMJENA U OKRUŽENJU ZA
NACIONALNO BRENDIRANJE
CHANGES IN ENVIRONMENT FOR
NATIONAL BRANDING
U posljednje dvije decenije proces
ekonomske globalizacije je poprimio neslućene razmjere, a rezultat je velika povezanost i
međuzavisnost nacionalnih ekonomija. Opšte
smanjenje barijera za kretanje roba i kapitala
dovelo je do veoma pogodnog okruženja za
ekspanziju multi-nacionalnih kompanija. Veliki rast svjetske trgovine nije rezultat samo rasta
In the last two decades, economic globalization has assumed great dimension, the
result is a connection and interdependence of
national economies. General reduction of barriers to the movement of goods and capital,
has led to a very favorable environment for
the expansion of multinational companies. A
large increase in world trade is not only the
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finalne potrošnje, već je to u značajnoj mjeri
rezultat rasta trgovine intermedijarnim proizvodima, a što je posljedica kretanja kapitala
koje je iniciralo rast intrakompanijske razmjene. U nastojanju kompanija da minimiziraju
troškove poslovanja i maksimiziraju profit,
investicije su se kretale ka destinacijama koje
obezbjeđuju niže troškove poslovanja (radna
snaga, transport, porezi,…). Takođe, kompanije neprestano tragaju za jeftinijim izvorima
intermedijarnih proizvoda i usluga. Sve ovo za
rezultat ima smanjenje nivoa nacionalnog sadržaja u finalnim proizvodima i uslugama. Imajući u vidu prethodnu činjenicu, suočavamo se
sa pitanjem koliko ostvareni izvoz realno doprinosi rastu BDP? Rast nacionalnog izvoza ne
znači i rast neto izvoza (ukupan izvoz - uvozne komponente i usluge sadržane u izvezenim proizvodima i uslugama). Ako nacionalno
brendiranje prihvatimo kao instrument za podršku izvozu, uz značajnu finansijsku podršku
države, onda se otvara pitanje: Čiji izvoz podržavamo novcem poreskih obveznika?
result of final consumption, but this is largely a result of the growth of trade intermediate
products, and as a result of capital movements
which initiated the growth intra company
trade. The company’s efforts to minimize costs
and maximize profits, and investments were
moving towards destinations that provide
lower operating costs (labor, transportation,
taxes, etc.). Also, the company is constantly
looking for cheaper sources of intermediate
goods and services. All these trends re-sulted in reduction of level of national content in
export products and services. Bearing in mind
the fact we are faced with the question of how
export performance contributes to the growth
of real GDP? National export growth does not
mean the growth of net exports (total exports
- imports components and services embodied
in exported goods and services). If you accept
national branding as a tool to support exports,
with substantial financial support from the
government, then the question arises: Whose
export is supported by taxpayers’ money?
Najnovija istraživanja ukazuju na problem međunarodne vertikalne integracije proizvodnje, što za rezultat ima smanjenje domaćeg sadržaja u izvoznim proizvodima. Takav
proizvod (usluga) gubi na svom nacionalnom
identitetu. Prema istraživanju R.Cappariello
(2012), u izvozu italijanske prerađivačke industrije strani sadržaj je u periodu 2000-2007. porastao sa 32,5% na 38,3%. Za Francusku i Njemačku podaci su slični, tako da za Francusku
imamo da je strani sadržaj porastao sa 33,6%
na 36%, a kod Njemačke je sa 29,9% na 34,5%.
U italijanskoj prerađivačkoj industriji, domaći
sadržaj je najniži kod rafinisanih proizvoda
nafte i nuklearnog goriva 22,4%, kancelarijskih mašina i računara 39,8%, hemikalija i hemijskih proizvoda 47%, najveći kod duvanskih
proizvoda 93,8%, štampanih izdanja i drugih
medija 76,3%, hrane i pića 74,8%, proizvoda
od drveta 69,8% itd. Slično istraživanje je rađeno i za Kinu. Na bazi input-output analize R.
Koopman, Z. Wang i S. Wei (2008.) su došli do
sljedećih rezultata: domaći sadržaj u izvoznim
proizvodima kineske prerađivačke industrije je
u periodu 1997-2007 pao sa 82,4% na 71,3%.
Recent research suggests the problem of
international vertical integration of production
results in reduction of domestic content in exports. Such product (service) loosed its national
identity. According to research of R.Cappariello
(2012), the export of Italian manufacturing sector foreign content in the period of 2000-2007,
increased from 32.5% to 38.3%. In France and
Germany data are similar, so in France we have
increase of foreign content from 33.6% to 36%,
while in Germany it rose from 29.9% to 34.5%.
In Italian manufacturing industry, local content
is the lowest in refined petroleum products and
nuclear fuels 22.4%, office machinery and computers 39.8%, chemicals and chemical products
47%, the highest in tobacco products 93.8%,
and other printed publications media 76.3%,
food and beverages 74.8%, wood products
69.8%, etc.. Similar research has been done for
China. On the basis of the input-output analysis of R.Koopman, Z.Wang and S.Wei (2008),
found following: Domestic content in exports of
Chinese manufacturing industry in the period of
1997-2007 fell from 82.4% to 71.3%. In 2007,
the minimum local content value was recorded
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U 2007. godini najniži sadržaj domaće vrijednosti imale su elektornske komponente 32,3%,
audiovizeulni aparati 32,6%, računari 33,9%, a
najveći cementi, obloge i malteri 88,4%, vatrostalni materijali 84,7%, tkanine 83,9%.
as 32.3% approaches electronic components,
audio and video equipment 32.6%, 33.9% for
computers, and most cements, coatings and
plasters 88.4%, 84.7% refractory materials, fabrics 83.9%.
Šta se dešava u svijetu? Kakva je pozicija zemalja u razvoju? Prema podacima
UNCTAD, u 2010. godini, svjetski prosjek
za strani sadržaj u izvoznim proizvodima je
28%. Za razvijene zemlje prosjek stranog
sadržaja je 31%, s tim što je za EU strani
sadržaj 39%, a za SAD 11%. Kod zemalja u
razvoju strani sadržaj je 25%, i to kod azijskih zemalja 27%, kod zemalja Latinske
Amerike 21%, a kod tranzicionih zemalja
13%. OECD i WTO su formirali bazu podataka TiVA (Trade in Value Added) koja
prati kretanje svjetske trgovine sa aspekta
izvora dodatne vrijednosti sadržane u proizvodima. Trenutno baza podataka pokriva
zemlje članice OECD, Rusiju, Brazil, Kinu,
Indiju, Indoneziju i Južnu Afriku. Za 2009.
godinu imamo podatke da je u izvozu Mađarske strani sadržaj iznosio 40,75%, Turske
21,07%, Slovenije 30,56%, Danske 30,5%,
a u zemaljama koje nisu obuhvaćene TiVA
32,05%. Trend povećanja stranog sadržaja u
izvozu je evidentan, tako da je potrebno pažljivije kreirati program državne podrške u
kreiranju nacionalnih brendova.
What is going on in the world? What
is the position of the developing countries?
According to the UNCTAD, during 2010,
the world average for the foreign content of
exports is 28%. For developed countries the
average of foreign content is 31%, in the EU
foreign content is 39% and 11% is for the
USA. In developing countries foreign content
is 25%, in Asian countries 27%, the countries
of Latin America 21%, in transition countries
13%. OECD and WTO have formed a database TiVA (Trade in Value Added), which follow the movement of world trade in terms of
sources of value added contained in products.
Currently the database covers OECD countries, Russia, Brazil, China, India, Indonesia,
and South Africa. For 2009 we have data that
foreign content in export from Hungary was
40.75%, 21.07% in Turkey, 30.56% in Slovenia, in Denmark 30.5%, and in countries that
are not included in TiVA 32.05%. The trend
of increasing foreign content in exports is evident, so there is need to carefully develop a
program of state support in creation of national brands.
Sljedeći problem proističe iz hipotetičkog primjera 1. Proizvod dominantno sadrži domaće intermedijarne proizvode, ali je proizveden
upotrebom stranih faktora proizvodnje (strani kapital). Čuvena automobilska marka „Mini“ je u
vlasništvu njemačke korporacije BMW. Bez obzira na to što je postojala jaka asocijacija brenda
„Mini“ sa britanskom tehnologijom, dizajnom i
kvalitetom, to je danas njemački brend. Po preuzimanju brenda „Mini“ od strane BMW, u te
automobile je ugrađena BMW tehnologija, tako
da ne možemo govoriti o britanskom brendu.
Kod automobila „Mini“ imamo i značajno korištenje njemačkog znanja koje je opredmećeno u
naprednoj tehnologiji ugrađenoj u automobil. Državna podrška u kreiranju brendova pod kontrolom stranog kapitala je problematična, pošto takva situacija omogućuje da se upotrebom novca
The next problem is derived from
hypothetical examples 1. The product
contains predominantly domestic intermediate goods, but is manufactured using foreign factors of production (foreign capital). The famous car brand
“Mini” is owned by German corporation
BMW. Regardless of the fact that there
was a strong association of the brand
“Mini” with British technology, design
and quality, it is German brand. After
taking over the brand “Mini” by BMW,
the car is built by BMW technology, so
we cannot talk about British brand. We
have significant use of German knowledge in “Mini” cars that is materialized
in the advanced technology built into the
car. State support in brand creation un101
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poreskih obveznika na indirektan način povećava
prinos na strani kapital. Mehanizmom transfernih cijena lako se obezbjeđuje lociranje profita u
skladu sa interesima vlasnika kapitala. Podrška
ovakvim brendovima (njihovo stavljanje u nacionalni kontekst) ne mora da ima pozitivan efekat
na BDP, a pogotovo ne na BNP. Proces globalizacije je omogućio olakšan protok kapitala, a što za
rezultat ima viši nivo stranog kapitala u domaćoj
ekonomiji i izvozu.
der the control of foreign capital is problematic, as the situation allows the use
of taxpayer money to indirectly increase
the return on foreign capital. Transfer
pricing mechanism ensures easy locating
profits in accordance with the interests
of shareholders. Support for these brands
(putting them in the national context)
does not have a positive effect on GDP,
and certainly not to the BNP.
Kvalitetnije domaće kompanije teže
ka internacionalizaciji poslovanja, a, posebno, one čija su domicilna tržišta mala i
ne obezbjeđuju dovoljno prostora za rast.
Prethodno smo naveli da je globalizacija
olakšala kretanje kapitala, tako da domaće
kompanije u izboru strategija internacionalizacije mogu da se opredijele za varijantu
uspostavljanja proizvodnje u inostranstvu.
Proizvodnjom u insotranstvu pozitivno se
utiče na BNP, ali i na BDP, jer će se, vjerovatno, koristiti domaći intermedijarni proizvodi, koji se inače korsite u domicilnoj
zemlji. Proizvodi proizvedeni u inostranstvu na ovaj način nemaju više odrednicu
„Made in USA, Russia, Germany“, ali imaju odrednicu „Made by USA, Russian, German capital or knowelge“.
Domestic companies with higher quality of business operations tend towards in-ternationalization, especially those that operate on
the small domestic markets that do not provide
enough space for growth. Previously, we have
stated that globalization facilitates movement
of capital, because of that local companies in
the selection of strategy of internationalization
can pursue variant of establishing production
abroad. Production abroad by national capital
had a positive impact on GNP, and on GDP
in case that the company abroad use domestic
intermediate products that usually use in the
home country. The products manufac-tured
abroad in this way no longer categorized as
“Made in the USA, Russia, Germany,” but
have the designation of “Made by USA, Russian, German or knowledge capital.”
U cilju preovladavanja problema nivoa
nacionalnog sadržaja u izvoznim proizvodima,
pokrenuta je inicijativa za nadnacionalno označavanje “Made in World”, koja treba da pospješi
međunarodnu trgovinu. Ovakvom inicijativom se
prevazilazi značaj nacionalnog označavanja i nacionalnog brendiranja i onemogućuje se diferenciranje proizvoda na osnovu nacionalnog brendiranja.
For prevalence of the problem of the
level of national content in export products
there established initiative for a supranational
mark “Made in World”. Such initiatives are
beyond the importance of national identification and national branding, and make impossible to differentiate products on the basis of
national branding.
KOJA JE RAZLIKA IZMEĐU
“MADE IN” I “MADE BY”?
WHAT IS DIFERENCE BETWEEN
“MADE IN” AND “MADE BY”?
“Made in” označava proizvode koji imaju nacionalni identitet, tj. proizvedeni su prevolađujućom upotrebom nacionalnih inputa u naznačenoj zemlji (Shema 1). Nacionalna oznaka je u
tijesnoj vezi sa nacionalnim brendom ili brendovima, nacionalna oznaka uspostavlja jasnu i nedvosmislenu vezu sa nacionalnim brendom.
“Made in” means products that have
national identity, it means that they produced
by mainly usage of domestic inputs in specified country (Scheme 1). National label is
closely related to the national brand, national
labeling establishes clear and unambiguous
link with national brand.
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A
Nacionalna teritorija
National territory
B
C
E
Proizvodnja sa upotrebom nacionalnih inputa
Production with national inputs
C Proizvodnja sa upotrebom stranog kapitala
Production with foreign capital
D
E
D
Production with mainly foreign inputs
Production with mainly national inputs
Shema 1. “Made in”
Scheme 1. “Made in”
S druge strane, “Made by” ćemo definisati kao označavanje koje implicira na
proizvode koji su proizvedeni upotrebom
nacionalnog kapitala i znanja, a, djelimično,
i nacionalnih inputa (Shema 2). Takav proizvod nije nužno proizveden u zemlji, ali možemo reći da je proizveden pod kontrolom
nacionalnih faktora.
On the other hand, “Made by” will
be defined as labeling implies that products are manufactured using national capital
and knowledge, and partly national inputs
(Scheme 2). Such product is not necessarily
produced in the country, but we can say that it
is produced under the control of national production factors.
A
Nacionalna teritorija i inostranstvo
National territory and abroad
B
C
E
D
Proizvodnja sa upotrebom nacionalnih inputa
Production with national inputs
C Proizvodnja sa upotrebom stranog kapitala
Production with foreign capital
D
E
Production with mainly foreign inputs
Production with mainly national inputs
Shema 2. “Made by”
Scheme 2. “Made by”
Suštinska razlika između ova dva
koncepta je u tome što se kod prvog težište
stavlja na proizvodnju u zemlji, upotrebom
nacionalnih inputa, dok se kod drugog težište
stavlja na upotrebu nacionalnih faktora, bez
obzira na lokaciju proizvodnje. Drugi koncept
uvažava globalno okruženje i korištenje prednosti koje takvo okruženje donosi. Istovremeno, promoviše se efikasna upotreba nacio-
The essential difference between two
concepts is that the first focuses on the production inside of the country, the use of national
inputs, while the second focuses on the use of
national factors, regardless of the location of
production. The second concept takes into account the global environment and taking advantage that such an environment brings. At
the same time, concept “Made by” promotes
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nalnih faktora i korištenje efekata ekonomije
obima, kao i potreba za kompleksnijim oblicima internacionalizacije poslovanja kompanija. Koncept “Made by” je kompatibilan sa
industrijama zasnovanim na znanju, mada se
može primijeniti i na druge industrije. “Made
by” obezbjeđuje veću mogućnost za interakciju i sinergetske efekte između privatnih i
nacionalnih brendova. Dok “Made in” na indirektan način promoviše reindustrijalizaciju
nacionalne ekonomije, “Made by” to nema
u svom primarnom cilju. “Made in” je koncept koji je u skladu sa obračunom BDP-a, a
“Made by” je u skladu sa obračunom BNP-a.
I jedan i drugi omogućavaju diferencijaciju
na osnovu nacionalnog identifikovanja, ali sa
drugačijim pristupom u identifikaciji nacionalne pripadnosti.
the efficient use of national factors and the use
of the effects of economies of scale and need
for more complex forms of internationalization of companies. The concept “Made by” is
compatible with knowledge-based industries,
although it can be applied to other industries.
“Made by” provide greater op-portunity for
interaction and synergy effects between private and national brands. While “Made in”
indirectly promotes the reindustrialization of
the national economy, “Made by” is not in its
primary goal. “Made in” is a concept that is
consistent with the calculation of GDP, and
“Made by” is consistent with the calculation
of GDP. Both allow differentiation on the basis of national identification, but with a different approach to the identification of national
frame.
ŠTA JE RJEŠENJE ZA KREIRANJE
I PODRŠKU NACIONALNIM
BRENDOVIMA?
WHAT IS SOLUTION FOR CREATING
AND SUPPORTING NATIONAL
BRANDS?
Na osnovu prethodno izloženih činjenica, jasno je da se nacionalnom brendiranju treba pristupiti sa velikom pažnjom uz
prethodno jasno definisan stav države o nacionalnom brendiranju. Spoljnotrgovinskom
politikom, u segmentu podsticaja izvoza, država treba da definiše stav prema konceptima
“Made in” i “Made by”. Problem je komplikovaniji u malim ekonomijama koje imaju visok stepen otvorenosti ili teže ka višem nivou
međunarodnog ekonomskog povezivanja.
Takođe, nerazvijene ekonomije i ekonomije
u razvoju imaju problem nižeg nivoa razvoja
pratećih sektora koji proizvode intermedijarne proizvode. Rezultat je nedostupnost određenih intermedijarnih proizvoda dobijenih u
zemlji, ili njihova visoka cijena, ili niži nivo
kvaliteta, ili njihova tehnička neusaglašenost.
Based on the facts set forth above,
it is clear that national branding should be
ap-proached with great care with previously
clearly defined position of the state in national
branding. By foreign trade policy in the area
of export incentives, the state should define
attitude towards the concepts of “Made in”
and “Made by”. The problem is complicated
for small economies that have high level of
openness or aspire to higher level of international economic links. Also, underdeveloped
economies and developing economies have
the problem with low levels of development
related sectors producing intermediate goods.
The result is the unavailability of certain intermediate products obtained in the country,
or their high price, or a lower level of quality
or a technical noncompliance.
Imajući u vidu trendove u međunarodnoj vertikalnoj integraciji proizvodnje, očekuje
se da će doći do daljeg smanjenja nacionalnog
sadržaja u izvoznim proizvodima. Takođe,
postoji razlika u nivou nacionalnog sadržaja
u različitim sektorima. Sektori kao što su pre-
Given trends in international vertical
integration of production expect that there
will be further reduction of national content
in the export product. Also, there is a difference in the level of national content in different sectors. Sectors such as the food industry
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hrambena industrija i industrije zasnovane na
preradi sirovina lokalno raspoloživih, imaju
veoma visok nivo domaćeg sadržaja, dok sektori sa naprednijim tehnologijama i višim nivoima prerade, imaju značajno niži udio domaćeg
sadržaja. Globalno okruženje nameće potrebu
za preispitivanjem državne spoljnotrgovinske
politike u obalsti podsticaja izvoza (nacionalno brendiranje). Isključivo opredjeljenje za
koncept “Made in” otvara problem prihvatljivog minimalnog nivoa domaćeg sadržaja. Kod
ostalih programa podsticaja izvoza (podrška u
finansiranju izvoznih poslova) uobičajeno je
da minimalni nivo domaćeg sadržaja iznosi
51% i da se pruža podrška shodno utvrđenom
nivou domaćeg sadržaja. Nacionalno brendiranje nije moguće dijeliti proporcionalno domaćem sadržaju, tako da je neophodno donijeti
odluku koji je nivo domaćeg sadržaja prihvatljiv za nacionalno brendiranje. Koncept “Made
in” otvara pitanje nacionalnog brendiranja
proizvoda proizvedenih u kompanijama koje
su u većinskom stranom vlasništvu. Koliko je
opravdano novcem poreskih obveznika podržavati strani Kapital? S druge strane, koncept
“Made by” kako smo ga prethodno definisali,
otvara pitanje zašto podržavati komapnije koje
su izvezle Kapital u druge zemlje i na taj način
doprinose razvoju drugih ekonomija. Ne treba
ispustiti iz vida značaj nacionalnog brendiranja
na domaćem tržištu, posebno u velikim ekonomijama sa znatnim potrošačkim potencijalom
domaćeg tržišta.
and processing industries based on locally
available raw materials, have very high level
of domestic content, while those with more
advanced technologies and higher levels of
processing, have significantly lower share of
domestic content. Global environment imposes the need for revision of the state of foreign
trade policy in export incentives (national
branding). Only commitment to the concept
of “Made in” raises the issue of an acceptable minimum level of domestic content. In
other programs, export incentives (support in
export financing) common minimum level of
domestic content is 51%, and provides support in accordance with the established level
of domestic content. National branding can
not be shared in proportion to the domestic
content, so it is necessary to decide which level of domestic content acceptable for national branding. The concept of “Made in” raises
the question of national branding of products
manufactured by companies that are majority foreignowned. How valid is the taxpayers’
money spent to support foreign capital? On
the other hand, the concept of “made by” as
we have defined it, raises the question of why
should we support companies that exported
capital to other countries, thus contributing
to the development of other economies. We
should not loose sight of the importance of
national branding on the domestic market, especially in large economies with potential of
domestic market.
Kanda je preduzela određene aktivnosti
u nacionalnom označavanju kako bi odgovorila na promijenjene uslove globalne ekonomije.
Kanadski biro za konkurentnost je 2009. godine izdao vodič za označavanje proizvoda sa
„Made in Canada“ i „Product of Canada“, koji
je zamijenio uputstvo koje je bilo na snazi od
početka 2002. godine. Do 2009. godine u Kanadi je egzistirala samo oznaka „Made in Canada“, a novom regulativom je definisana oznaka
„Product of Canada“. U skladu sa novom regulativom, sa „Made in Canada“ mogu se označavati samo oni proizvodi koji imaju najmanje
51% kanadskog sadržaja (rad + materijali), a
proizvedeni su u Kanadi. Sa oznakom „Product
Canada has taken specific actions in
the national labeling, in order to respond to
the changed conditions of global economy.
The Canadian Competition Bureau’s 2009
issued a guide for marking products with
“Made in Canada” and “Product of Canada”, which replaced the manual that has
been in effect since early 2002. Until 2009,
in Canada there was only the label “Made
in Canada”, new regulation defined new label “Product of Canada”. In accordance with
the new legislation, the “Made in Canada”
can mean only those products that have at
least 51% Canadian content (materials + labor) and are manufactured in Can-ada. La105
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of Canada“ se označavaju proizvodi koji imaju
najmanje 98% kanadskog sadržaja, a proizvedeni su u Kanadi. I kod jednog i kod drugog
označavanja obavezan uslov je da su materijali
i komponente uvoznog porijekla promijenile
svoj oblik, i mogu se smatrati potpuno drugim
proizvodom. Kanada se opredijelila za koncept
koji promoviše proizvodnju u Kanadi, a koja
primarno koristi kanadske inpute. Zakonska
regulativa Kanade strogo zabranjuje upotrebu bilo koje oznake (slika, kombinacija slova
ili riječi, kombinacija znakova, slika i slova)
koja upućuje na kanadsko porijeklo, a da nisu
ispunjeni uslovi za nacionalno označavanje. Iz
ovakvog regulisanja nacionalnog označavanja
u Kanadi, jasno je da država nastoji da zaštiti
izgrađeni nacionalni brend.
beled “Product of Canada” denotes products
that have at least 98% Canadian content, and
are manufactured in Canada. In both cases
the mandatory labeling requirement is that
the materials and components imported origin changed its shape, and can be considered as completely different product. Canada is committed to the concept that promotes
the production in Canada, which primarily
benefit the Canadian inputs. Legislation of
Canada strictly prohibits the use of any label (picture, letter combinations or words,
combination of signs, pictures and letters)
that refers to the Canadian origin, and that
the conditions for national labeling did not
full filed. There is clear that Canada try to
protect built national brand.
Uz slične principe, ali sa komplikovanijim pravilima, SAD su regulisale nacionalno označavanje. U SAD nacionalno označavanje ima veliku važnost na domaćem tržištu,
zbog jake konkurencije roba iz drugih zemalja. Američka automobilska industrija, nekada nacionalni ponos, doživjela je potpuni kolaps u nadmetanju sa japanskom, korejskom i
evropskom konkurencijom. Nacionalno označavanje u SAD ima sasvim drugačiju dimenziju u odnosu na ostale zemlje.
With similar principles, but with more
complicated rules, the USA regulated national labeling. In the USA national labeling
has great importance on the domestic market
due to strong competition from goods of other countries. The USA auto industry, once a
national pride, has experienced a complete
collapse in competition with the Japanese,
Korean and European competition. National
designation in the USA has completely different dimension compared to other countries.
ZAKLJUČAK
CONCLUSION
Ovdje dajemo moguće rješenje za
koji koncept treba da se opredijeli država
kod nacionalnog brendiranja. Opredjeljenje države treba da bude kombinacija podrške privatnim i nacionalnim brendovima
i brendiranju, uz izbalansirano prihvatanje i
koncepata „Made in“ i „Made by“. Sektorska
analiza, kao i nacionalne razvojne strategije,
treba da daju odgovor o dostignutom nivou
razvoja sektora kao i ciljanom nivou razvoja pojedinačnih sektora. Prema tome, treba
da bude koncipirana strategija razvoja privatnih i nacionalnih brendova. Sektori kod
kojih postoji resursna osnova i mogućnost
vertikalne proizvodne integracije i diverzifikacije, su obavezno predmet podrške u
nacionalnom brendiranju. Ovakvi sektori
In conclusion we give a possible solution to the concept that should be dedicated
to the state in national branding. Policy of the
state should be a combination of support to private and national brands and branding, with a
balanced acceptance concepts “Made in” and
“Made by”. Sector analysis, as well as the national development strategy should give an
answer to the progress in the development of
the sector as well as the targeted level of development of individual sectors. Therefore, there
should be designed strategy of development of
private and national brands. The sectors which
have a resource base and the possibility of vertical integration and diversification are subject
to mandatory support through national branding. These sectors with high level of domestic
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Nacionalna teritorija
National territory
content, in addition to support through national
branding should be supported, supporting the
development of private brands, but only those
that are under the control of domestic (national) capital. The development of private brands
achieved a positive effect on the national
brand. In sectors with higher technologies we
have fact that is lower level of domestic content in products. If we adhere to the concept of
“Made in” these sectors would not be suitable
to support branding and national branding,
which would be eliminated in sectors that provide significant development of the national
economy. The solution takes into account the
interests of the national economy are given in
the form of a matrix (Scheme 3). Grayed fields
are marked variations suitable for public support in branding.
Inostranstvo
Abroad
nacionalni kapital
national capital
strani kapital
foreign capital
nacionalni kapital
national capital
strani kapital
foreign capital
privatni brend
private brands
nacionalni brend
national brands
Proizvodnja sa
Production with
zbog visokog nivoa domaćeg sadržaja, uz
podršku kroz nacionalno brendiranje, treba
da budu podržani i kroz podršku razvoju privatnih brendova ali samo onih koji su pod
kontrolom domaćeg (nacionalnog) kapitala. Razvojem privatnih brendova ostvaruje
se pozitivan efekat i na nacionalni brend. U
sektoru sa višim tehnologijama manji je nivo
domaćeg sadržaja u proizvodima. Ako bismo
se pridržavali koncepta „Made in“, ovi sektori ne bi bili podesni za podršku u brendiranju
i nacionalnom brendiranju, čime bi bili eliminisani sektori koji omogućuju značajniji
razvoj nacionalne ekonomije. Rješenje koje
uvažava interese nacionalne ekonomije dajemo u obliku matrice (Shema 3). Potamnjenim poljima su označene varijante podesne za
državnu podršku u brendiranju.
strani inputi
strani inputi
domaci inputi
domaci inputi
domestic inputs foreign inputs domestic inputs foreign inputs
Shema 3. Solucije za podršku izvoza brenda
LITERATURA
Scheme 3. Solution for support of export branding
LITERATURE
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European Economies. Frankfurt an
Main: NCB Experts Meeting “Assessing Competitiveness“ at ECB.
Cappariello, R. (2012). Domestic ValueAdded Content of Exports: A CrossCoun-try Comparison for the Major
European Economies. Frankfurt an
Main: NCB Experts Meeting “Assessing Competitiveness“ at ECB.
Clifton, R., & Simmons, J. (2003). Brands
and Branding. London: The
Economist.
Clifton, R., & Simmons, J. (2003). Brands
and Branding. London: The
Economist.
Cheung, G. (2009). Made in China vs. made by
Chinese: Global Identities of Chinese
Business: An Introduction. Journal of
Contemporary China, 18(58), 1-5.
Cheung, G. (2009). Made in China vs. made by
Chinese: Global Identities of Chinese
Business: An Introduction. Journal of
Contemporary China, 18(58), 1-5.
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Fan, Y. (2006). Branding the Nation: What is
Being Branded?. Journal of Vaca-tion
Marketing, 12:1, 5-14.
Fan, Y. (2006). Branding the Nation: What is
Being Branded?. Journal of Vaca-tion
Marketing, 12:1, 5-14.
Kaneva, N. (2011). Nation Branding:
Toward an Agenda for Critical
Research. International Journal of
Communications, 5 (2011), 117-141.
Kaneva, N. (2011). Nation Branding:
Toward an Agenda for Critical
Research. International Journal of
Communications, 5 (2011), 117-141.
Kopman, R., Wang, Y., Wei, S. (2008). How
Much of Chinese Exports is Really
Made in China? Assessing Domestic
Value-Added When Processing Trade
is Prevasive. Cambridge: NBER
Working Paper.
Kopman, R., Wang, Y., Wei, S. (2008). How
Much of Chinese Exports is Really
Made in China? Assessing Domestic
Value-Added When Processing Trade
is Prevasive. Cambridge: NBER
Working Paper.
Martin, M. Ingrid, Sevgin Eroglu (1993).
Measuring a Multi-Dimensional
Construct: Country Image. Journal of
Business Research, 28(3), 191-210.
Martin, M. Ingrid, Sevgin Eroglu (1993).
Measuring a Multi-Dimensional
Construct: Country Image. Journal of
Business Research, 28(3), 191-210.
Olins, W. (2002). Branding the Nation the
historical context. The Journal of
Brand Management. April, Vol. 9.
Olins, W. (2002). Branding the Nation the
historical context. The Journal of
Brand Management. April, Vol. 9.
Thakor, M. V., Katsanis, L. P. (1997). A
Model of Brand and Country Ef-fects
on Quality Dimensions: Issues and
Implications. Journal of International
Consumer Marketing, 9(3), 79-100.
Thakor, M. V., Katsanis, L. P. (1997). A
Model of Brand and Country Ef-fects
on Quality Dimensions: Issues and
Implications. Journal of International
Consumer Marketing, 9(3), 79-100.
UNCTAD, (2013). Global Value Chains and
Development: Investment and ValueAdded Trade in Global Economy.
New York – Geneva.
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Development: Investment and ValueAdded Trade in Global Economy.
New York – Geneva.
108
FISKALNA EKONOMIJA - FISCAL ECONOMY
UTICAJ FISKALNE POLITIKE NA EKONOMSKE TOKOVE U BOSNI I HERCEGOVINI
FISCAL POLICY EFFECTS ON ECONOMIC TRENDS IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
Mr Biljana Stanivuk*
*Univerzitet u Istočnom Sarajevu, Fakultet Poslovne ekonomije Bijeljina
University of East Sarajevo, Faculty of Business and Economics Bijeljina
Stručni članak
doi 10.7251/OIK1301009S, UDK 338.23:336.22+336.127(497.6)
Professional paper
REZIME
SUMMARY
Poreska struktura pojedinih država
se može posmatrati putem uticaja pojedinih
oblika poreza u ukupnim javnim prihodima.
Fiskalni sistem modernih država čini kombinacija većeg broja poreza koji su koncipirani
tako da pogoduju datim ekonomskim i socijalnim ciljevima, odnosno predstavljaju ostvarivanje ciljeva fiskalne politike zemlje. Poreski
sistemi су drugačiji prvenstveno zbog toga
što države imaju različitu potrebu za sredstvima kojima finansiraju javne rashode. Jedan
od najznačajnijih pokazatelja koji se pripisuje javnom sektoru je visina poreskog opterećenja pojedinih poreskih prihoda u ukupnom
bruto društvenom proizvodu.
The tax structure of individual countries can be seen in the influence of certain
forms of taxes in total government revenues.
The fiscal system of modern states is a combination of a number of taxes that are designed to favor the given economic and social objectives, and represent the objectives
of the fiscal policy of the country. Tax systems are different primarily because countries have different requirements for funds
which finance public expenditure. One of
the most important indicators that the public
sector is attributed to the amount of the tax
burden of certain tax revenues to gross domestic product.
Ključne riječi: Fiskalna politika, poreska
struktura, ekonomski ciljevi, direkni porezi,
indirektni porezi, BDP.
Keywords: fiscal policy, tax structure,
economic objectives, Direct taxes, indirect
taxes, GDP
UVOD
INTRODUCTION
Primjenjujući fiskalnu politiku, država
pomaže izvršavanju svojih ekonomskih ciljeva.
Fiskalna politika predstavlja moćan instrument
kojim se mogu usmjeravati privredni tokovi i
privredne aktivnosti. Osnovna funkcija poreza
je prikupljanje javnih prihoda. Međutim, porezi
imaju i dodatne funkcije koje se ogledaju u alokaciji društvenih sredstava, preraspodjeli nacionalnog dohotka, stabilizaciji privrednih kretanja
i slično. Kreiranjem odgovarajuće poreske strukture i izborom poreskih stopa, država može da
utiče na uravnoteženje cijena, investicije, zaposlenost, štednju, trgovinske tokove, povećanje izvoza, smanjenje uvoza, socijalne probleme.
The government helps the performance
of their economic goals applying the fiscal
policy. The fiscal policy is a powerful tool for
economic flows and economic activity . The
main function of the tax is revenue collection.
However, taxes additional features are reflected in the allocation of social resources, redistribution of national income, the stabilization of
economic trends and the like. The government
can influence the balance of price, investment,
employment, savings, trade flows, increase exports, reduce imports and social problems by
creating an appropriate tax structure and the
choice of tax rates.
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B. Stanivuk: UTICAJ FISKALNE POLITIKE NA EKONOMSKE TOKOVE U BOSNI I HERCEGOVINI
FISKALNA POLITIKA I EKONOMSKI
TOKOVI
FISCAL POLICY AND ECONOMIC
TRENDS
Ristić (2010) navodi da se problematika
fiskalnog djelovanja na privredni razvoj ogleda
u mobilizaciji akumulacionog potencijala, sektorskoj orijentaciji investicija, u stimulisanju tehničko-tehnološkog progresa, primjeni rezultata
naučnoistraživačkog rada, u formiranju kadrova
i znanja, u izgradnji objekata ekonomske infrastrukture, u promovisanju privrednog rasta i to
posredstvom diferencijalnog ili diferenciranog
oporezivanja, fiskalnih dedukcija i beneficija, poreskih oslobađanja i olakšica, ubrzane amortizacije i niza drugih instrumenata fiskalne politike.
Ristić (2010) found that the issue of
fiscal actions on economic development is
to mobilize the potential of the reservoir, the
sectoral orientation of investment stimulating
technological progress, the formation of human resources and knowledge, building the
economic infrastructure, promoting economic
growth and through differential or differentiated taxation, fiscal deductions and benefits,
tax exemptions and incentives, accelerated
depreciation and a number of other instruments of fiscal policy.
Selektivno usmjeravanje pojedinih fiskalnih instrumenata dovodi do harmonizacije rasta
na makroekonomskom planu, odnosno, ima za
cilj povećanje produktivnosti rada, tehnički progres, racionalno korišćenje kapaciteta, optimalnu
alokaciju investicionih resursa, veću mobilnost resursa, supstituciju proizvodnih faktora i povećanje
zaposlenosti na mikroplanu. Na primjer, porez na
dodatu vrijednost favorizuje izvoz više nego druge
vrste poreza i smatra se da je upravo ovaj poreski
oblik zaslužan za popravljanje platnog bilansa sa
inostranstvom. Isto tako, porez na dodatu vrijednost stimuliše investicije obezbjeđujući refundaciju plaćenog poreza na ime investicionih troškova
i nabavke kapitalne opreme i na taj način investiranje postaje jeftinije i privlačnije, povećavaju se
zaposlenost i ukupan razvoj. O uticaju poreza na
dodatu vrijednost na ove i ostale ekonomske kategorije biće više riječi u nastavku rada.
It should be added that very selectively targeting specific fiscal instruments
lead to the harmonization of macro-economic growth, aims to increase labor productivit,
technical progress, the rational utilization of
capacity, the optimal allocation of investment
resources, greater mobility of resources, substitution of factors of production and increase
employment in micro level. For example, the
value added tax favors export more than other
types of taxes, and considered that it was this
form of tax credit for improving the balance
of payments with foreign countries. Similarly,
the value added tax encourages investment by
providing a refund of tax paid on behalf of the
investment cost and the procurement of capital equipment and thus investment becomes
cheaper and more attractive, increasing employment and overall development.
Značajno je da, pored fiskalnih efekata,
izbor odgovarajuće poreske strukture ima i nefiskalne efetke koji su izuzetno važni za ekonomske tokove. Primjena poreske politike ogleda se
u: (1) alokativnim efektima, (2) redistributivnim
efektima i (3) stabilizacionim efektima.
The choice of the appropriate tax structure has a non-fiscal effect which are extremely
important for the economy. The application of
tax policy is reflected through: (1) allocative
effects, (2) redistributive effects and (3) stabilizing effects.
Alokativni efekti ogledaju se u optimalnoj alokaciji resursa u cilju unapređivanja ekonomskih aktivnosti, povećanju domaće proizvodnje, usmjeravanju kapitala i slično. U ovom
slučaju, postavlja se pitanje poreske neutralnosti, odnosno da li država ima pravo da stimuliše/
destimuliše pojedine privredne aktivnosti.
Allocative effects are reflected in the
optimal allocation of resources in order to promote economic activity , increased domestic
production, directing capital and the like. In
this case, the question of tax neutrality, whether the state has the right to encourage/discourage certain economic activities.
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Uloga države u usmjeravanju privrednih kretanja trebalo bi da bude takva da ne
utiče na smanjivanje inicijative, motivisanosti
za proizvodnju i privredni razvoj ekonomskih
subjekata. Proizvodi i usluge koji se pojavljuju kao dobra od opšteg društvenog značaja
neminovno zahtijevaju intervenciju države,
zbog čega se ne mogu prepustiti tržišnom mehanizmu. Aktivnosti koje doprinose opštem
društvenom razvoju, kao, na primjer, obrazovanje, kultura i nauka, djeluju na privredni
rast i, samim tim, su oslobođeni oporezivanja.
The role of the state in directing economic trends should not affect the reduction initiative, motivation for production and
economic development of economic agents.
Products and services that appear as good of
general public importance will inevitably require the intervention of the state, which can
not be left to the market mechanism. Activities that contribute to the overall social development, such as education, culture and science, work on economic growth and therefore
are exempt from taxation.
Uvođenje poreza na dodatu vrijednost i određivanje njegovih osnovnih
karakteristika (izbor stope, osnovice, obveznika, oslobađanja) izuzetno utiče na
alokaciju pojedinih privrednih aktivnosti.
Već je navedeno da ovaj poreski oblik podstiče izvoz, investicije, a, samim tim, alocira privrednu aktivnost u cilju povećanja
produktivnosti, rasta zaposlenosti, ravnotežnog platnog bilansa i slično.
The introduction of value added
tax and determine its basic characteristics
(selection rate base, the taxpayers of release) highly affects the allocation of certain economic activities. It has already been
stated that this form of taxation encourages exports, investment, and thus allocate
economic activity in order to increase productivity, employment growth, balance of
payments deficit and the like.
Stabilizacioni efekti fiskalane politike imaju za cilj razvoj i stabilnost privredne aktivnosti. Održavanje agregatne ponude i tražnje na određenom nivou moguće je
primjenom instrumenata fiskalne politike,
odnosno odgovarajućom fiskalnom strategijom. Ukoliko bi se porezima uticalo na
povećanje cijena, to bi izazvalo povećanje
troškova života, a, samim tim, i veće plate i
tako bi se inflatorna spirala širila u nedogled.
Postavlja se pitanje koja to visina i struktura
poreza omogućava stabilnost privrede. Izuzetno je izražen skepticizam kada je u pitanju uvođenje poreza na dodatu vrijednost i
njegov uticaj na porast cijena.
Stabilization effects of fiscal policy
aimed at the development and stability of
economic activity. Maintenance of aggregate supply and demand at a certain level
it is possible using the instruments of fiscal
policy and appropriate fiscal strategy. If the
tax effect of the price increase, it would have
caused an increase in the cost of living, and
therefore higher wages and thus to an inflationary spiral spread indefinitely. The question is what is the amount and structure of
taxes to economic stability. It is expressed
skepticism when it comes to the introduction
of value added tax and its impact on the price
increase.
Značajno je navesti da, prema mišljenju istaknutog ekonomiste iz oblasti poreza,
a naročito poreza na dodatu vrijednost, Alana
Tait-a, porez na dodatu vrijednost ne izaziva
porast opšteg nivoa cijena, kao ni inflaciju. To
se ne može reći za male i nestabilne privrede koje već imaju inflaciju i koje u uslovima
opšte nestabilnosti navode ovaj poreski oblik
kao jedan od osnovnih razloga porasta inflatornih efekata.
It is important to mention that, according to prominent economists in the field
of taxation, particularly value added tax, Alan
Tait, the value added tax does not cause a rise
in the general price level, or inflation. It can
not be said for the small and vulnerable economies that already have inflation and that in
terms of the general instability of the state tax
form as one of the main reasons for the increased inflationary effects.
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Redistributivni efekti poreza na dodatu
vrijednost imaju izuzetan uticaj prilikom uvođenja ovog poreskog oblika. Iako je osnovni cilj
poreza na dodatu vrijednost oporezivanje dodate
vrijednosti prilikom prodaje roba i usluga, bitno
je naglasiti da ovaj porez ne identifikuje potrošače po njihovoj ekonomskoj snazi, već jednako
pogađa i siromašne i bogate slojeve stanovništva. U principu to znači da više tereti siromašne
slojeve, jer je njihova potrošnja u odnosu na dohodak mnogo veća od potrošnje bogatih slojeva.
S obzirom da to su prehrambeni proizvodi nužni
i da imaju neelastičnu tražnju (njihovo učešće
u dohotku se smanjuje porastom dohotka), primjena ovog kriterijuma dovela bi do toga da su
siromašni slojevi više pogođeni porezom.
Redistributive effects of taxes on added value of having a great influence in the
introduction of this tax. Although the main
purpose of value added tax on sale of goods
and services, it is important to note that this
tax does not identify consumers by their economic power, but equally affects both rich
and poor segments of the population. In principle, this means that more charges the poor,
because their consumption relative to income
is much higher than the consumption of the
rich layers. Becouse food products are necessary and have inelastic demand ( their share in
income reduces income increases ), the application of this criterion would lead to the fact
that the poor are more affected by the tax.
Poreska struktura sastoji se od niza
drugih poreskih oblika koji imaju za cilj da kao
cjelina, omoguće što efikasnije rezultate. Pored
efekata poreske politke, smatra se da je učešće
javnih prihoda u bruto društvenom proizvodu
(BDP) osnovni pokazatelj za uspješno koncipiranu fiskalnu politiku, odnosno za uspješno
vođenje fiskalne politike. Povećanje BDP je
pretpostavka za povećanje javnih prihoda i
rashoda, kao i za poboljšanje društvenog standarda. Mjerama ekonomske politike nastoji se
ostvariti optimalna stopa rasta, a to je slučaj
kada se korišćenjem faktora proizvodnje vodi
računa i o drugim ciljevima. Ekonomski rast
se može podstaći mjerama poreske politike
putem olakšica, oslobađanja, boljeg korišćenja
svih resursa i povećanja produktivnosti rada.
Poželjno je da je visina udjela javnog sektora preko 40% BDP. S obzirom na to da država
svojom fiskalnom politikom utiče na privredne
tokove i ima za cilj stabilan privredni sistem
bez velikih oscilacija, neophodno je da upravlja agregatnom ponudom i tražnjom, odnosno
da vodi anticikličnu fiskalnu politiku.
The tax structure consists also of a
number of other tax forms that are intended
to provide the most efficient results. In addition to the effects of tax policy, it is considered that the share of public revenues to
gross domestic product (GDP ) is indicators
of successful conceived fiscal policy and
the successful conduct of fiscal policy. GDP
growth is a prerequisite for increasing public
revenues and expenditures, as well as for the
improvement of social standards. Measures
of economic policy aims to achieve optimal
growth, which is the case when using the factors of production takes into account the other
goals. Economic growth can be encouraged
through tax policy measures, incentives, exemptions, better use of resources and increase
productivity. It is desirable that the amount of
the share of the public sector is over 40% of
GDP. The state applying the fiscal policy and
affects economic trends toward to stable economic system without large fluctuations. It is
necessary to manage aggregate demand and
supply and to lead anti-cyclical fiscal policy.
Marić (2007) navodi da se promjene u
vrsti i visini javnih prihoda provode, po pravilu, primjenom: (1) automatski ugrađenog
stabilizatora, (2) formule elastičnosti i (3) diskrecionih mjera.
Marić (2007) found that changes in
the type and amount of public revenue shall
be carried out, as a rule, the application:
(1) built-in automatic stabilizers, (2) formula
of elasticity and (3) discretionary measures.
Status automatskih stabilizatora imaju
oni porezi koji, bez državne intervencije, samo-
Status of automatic stabilizers have
those taxes without state intervention , inde-
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stalno reaguju na ciklične oscilacije privrednih
aktivnosti i povećavaju ili smanjuju agregatnu
tražnju. Smatra se da je najznačajniji regulator
porez na dohodak sa progresivnim stopama.
U situacijama rasta privrednih aktivnosti, raste dohodak, raste tražnja, pa se progresivnim
oporezivanjem dohotka zahvata veći iznos javnih prihoda. Na taj način smanjuje se privredna aktivnost ekonomskih subjekata i sprečava
prevelika količina novca u opticaju koja bi vodila inflaciji. U slučajevima recesivnih privrednih aktivnosti, država može da finansira svoje
potrebe sredstvima koja je prikupila u uzlaznoj
fazi privredne aktivnosti. Na taj način se utiče
na porast tražnje (jer privredni subjekti dolaze
do sredstava). Automatski stabilizator, dakle,
omogućava da se održi ravnoteža privrednih tokova, reguliše količina novca u opticaju i omogućava nesmetano funkcionisanje privrede.
pendently respond to cyclical fluctuations in
economic activity and the increase or decrease
aggregate demand. The most important regulator of the income tax is progressive rates.
If the economic activity growth it will rising
incomes, increasing demand, and progressive
taxation of income covers a larger amount of
public revenue. This contributes to the reduction of economic activity of economic entities
and prevents excessive amount of money that
leads to inflation. In cases of recessive economic activities, the government can finance
its needs funds collected by the upswing in
economic activity. Thus affecting the growth
of demand (for commercial entities come up
with the funds ). Automatic stabilizers, therefore, maintain the balance of economic processes, regulates the money supply and allows the smooth functioning of the economy .
Formula elastičnosti, takođe, ima za cilj
da reguliše privredne aktivnosti, odnosno da
otkloni negativne efekte privrednih oscilacija.
U ovom slučaju se unaprijed utvrđuju propisi
koji će se primjenjivati shodno promjenama u
ekonomskim tokovima. Pri utvrđivanju formule
elastičnosti mogu se primijeniti dva pristupa:
Elasticity formula also aims to regulate economic activity and remove the negative effects of economic fluctuations. In this
case, the pre - established rules that will be
applied in line with changes in the economy.
In determining the elasticity formula can be
applied two approaches:
1.
prvi, u slučaju da u privredi dođe do negativnih promjena, preduzimaju se mjere koje su naprijed propisane i
1.
First, if the economy comes to negative
changes, measures are being taken forward by the prescribed and
2.
drugi, tek nakon utvrđivanja postojanja
negativnih trendova u privredi, nadležna
tijela moraju propisati mjere koje treba
preduzeti u pravcu usporavanja i zaustavljanja tih kretanja.
2.
Second, after determining the existence
of negative trends in the economy, the
competent authority shall prescribe the
measures to be taken in the direction of
slowing and stopping the movement.
Diskrecione mjere smatraju se najznačajnijim mjerama za ostvarivanje stabilizacione politike. Međutim, ove mjere se primjenjuju
ad hoc, što znači da u momentu kada se neka
promjena desi, nadležna tijela donose odluku
o primjeni odgovarajućih mjera za uravnoteženje negativnih efekata. Ovo, naravno, nije dobro, jer se u ovom slučaju negativna aktivnost
desila i ne postoji konstantna politika koja će
stihijski dovesti do uravnoteženja, nego se primjenom trenutnih i naglih mjera situacija još
više može pogoršati. Suština je da se poreskim
mjerama svakako može doprinijeti unapređe-
Discretionary measures are considered
to be the most important measure for achieving
stabilization policy . However, these measures
are implemented ad hoc, which means that at
the moment when a change occurs, the competent authorities shall take their decision on the
implementation of appropriate measures to balance the negative effects . This, of course, is not
good, because in this case the negative activity
occurred and there is a constant policy that will
lead to a spontaneous equilibrium, but the application of current, severe measures can further
aggravate the situation . The bottom line is that
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nju ekonomske efikasnosti, jer raznim podsticajima, oslobađanjima i finansiranjima država
može doprinijeti tehnološkom napretku, povećanju zaposlenosti, novim investicijama, povećanju produktivnosti i slično.
the tax measures can certainly help improve the
economic efficiency because various incentives,
exemptions and financing, the state can contribute to technological progress, increased employment, new investment, increased productivity.
Poreske reforme koje su izvršene u
našoj zemlji objašnjene su već u prethodnom
dijelu rada. Sada je značajno da vidimo ekonomske efekte tih poreskih reformi da bismo
znali da li je naša fiskalna politika donijela
očekivane rezultate. Ekonomski efekti poreskih reformi (direktnih i indirektnih poreza)
imaju svoje učešće u BDP. Da bismo sagledali uticaj poreza na dodatu vrijednost na
ekonomske tokove u Bosni i Hercegovini, neophodno je da analiziramo učešće ove vrste
poreza u BDP.
Tax reforms applied in our country
have already explained in the previous paragraphs. It is important to see the economic
effects of the tax reform in order to know
whether our fiscal policy to deliver the expected results. Economic effects of tax reforms (direct and indirect taxes) have their
share in GDP. In order to study the impact of
value added tax on economic developments
in Bosnia and Herzegovina, it is necessary to
analyze the percentage of this type of tax to
GDP ratio.
Učešće javnih prihoda u BDP-u je
između 37% i 43%. To ujedno ukazuje na
ogroman značaj koji fiskalna politika ima u
privrednom životu naše zemlje. Ukoliko imamo u vidu da najveći iznos javnih prihoda čini
porez na dodatu vrijednost (između 63% i
70% ukupnih indirektnih poreza i preko 40%
svih javnih prihoda), jasno se može izvesti zaključak da je ovaj poreski oblik dominantan u
BDP-u. Centralna banka Bosne i Hercegovine
i Direkcija za ekonomsko planiranje u okviru
Vijeća ministara izveli su odgovarajuće zaključke vezane za učešće i strukturu poreskih
prihoda u BDP-u u odnosu na EU.
The share of public revenues in GDP
is between 37% and 43 % . It also indicates
the tremendous importance of fiscal policy is
the economic situation of our country. If we
consider that the greatest amount of public
revenue have the value added tax ( between
63 % and 70 % of total indirect taxes and
over 40 % of all revenues ), it can be inferred
that the dominant form of taxation to GDP .
Central Bank of Bosnia and Herzegovina and
Economic Planning in the Council of Ministers took the appropriate conclusions for the
participation and the structure of tax revenues
to GDP than the EU.
14
12
10
8
6
EU-27
4
2
PDV
VAT
Akcize
Taxes on product
Grafikon 1. Struktura i učešće poreskih prihoda
u BDP
114
Graph 1. The structure and share of tax revenue
in GDP
B. Stanivuk: FISCAL POLICY EFFECTS ON ECONOMIC TRENDS IN BOSNIA AND HERZEGOVINA
Iz grafikona 1 jasno se vidi da učešće indirektnih poreza (samim tim i poreza na dodatu
vrijednost) u našoj zemlji prevazilazi tu kategoriju u zemljama Evropske unije. Razlog je to što
smo zemlja u razvoju i potrošnja predstavlja dominantno ekonomsko ponašanje privrednih subjekata. Razvijene zemlje Evropske unije imaju
većinsko učešće direktnih poreza u BDP. Kalkulacija učešća pojedinih poreskih prihoda u BDP
omogućava upoređivanje fiskalnog opterećenja
i strukure oporezivanja. Indirektni porezi su harmonizovani na nivou države tek 2006. godine, pa
se tek od tog perioda može mjeriti njihov uticaj.
It is clear that the share of indirect taxes (and hence value added tax ) in our country
exceeds the same category in the European
Union. The reason is that we are a developing
country and spending a dominant economic
behavior of economic entities. The developed
countries of the European Union have the majority share of direct taxes in GDP . Calculation share of certain tax revenues to GDP
to compare the fiscal burden and structures of
taxation. Indirect taxes are harmonized at the
national level in 2006. years , and only in that
period can measure their impact.
Grafikon 2. Poreski prihodi EU27 i BiH
% BDP)
(u
Graph 2. Tax revenues EU27 and Bosnia and
Herzegovina (% of GDP )
Treba istaći da je naša zemlja reformom direktnih poreza napravila značajan korak ka širenju tržišta rada i povećanju najnižih
neto dohodaka, čime se stvaraju preduslovi za
rast doprinosa. Isto tako, rast direktnih poreza
može se očekivati samo povećanjem privrednih aktivnosti.
It should be noted that our country reform of direct taxes has made a significant step
towards the expansion of the labor market and
the increase of the lowest net income , thus creating the conditions for growth contributions.
Similarly, the increase in direct taxes can be
expected only by increasing economic activity.
ZAKLJUČAK
CONCLUSION
Značaj navedene strukture javnih prihoda u BDP nesumnjivo dovodi do zaključka
da poreska politika predstavlja izuzetno moćan instrument. Sve poreske mjere, sistemom
The importance of these structures in
public revenues in GDP undoubtedly leads to
the conclusion that tax policy is a very powerful tool . All tax measures , the system of
115
B. Stanivuk: UTICAJ FISKALNE POLITIKE NA EKONOMSKE TOKOVE U BOSNI I HERCEGOVINI
poreskog zahvatanja ili oslobađanja, dovode
do izmjena privredne strukture i ponašanja
ukupne privredne dinamike. Međutim, kada
je u pitanju naša zemlja, ne treba zaboraviti
efekte prevaljivanja, koji su u stanju da, putem razvijenih oblika indirektnih poreza, dovedu do veće poreske presije, čiji teret snose
krajnji potrošači. Možemo izvesti zaključak
da je fiskalna politika zapravo jedini instrument u rukama vlade kojim se direktno utiče
na ekonomska kretanja u kratkom roku, obzirom na to da automatizam „currency board-a“
skoro u potpunosti upravlja monetarnom politikom. Zapravo, fiskalna održivost, takođe,
predstavlja jedan od preduslova za održivost
samog „currency board-a“ u BiH. Konačno,
fiskalna održivost predstavlja osnovni preduslov implementacije infrastrukturnih i drugih
razvojnih programa zemlje.
tax exemptions or abstractions , leading to
changes in economic structure and behavior
of the overall economic dynamics. However ,
when it comes to our country , we should not
forget the effect of shifting , which are able to
, the developed forms of indirect taxes lead to
greater repression whose tax burden borne by
the final consumers. We conclude that fiscal
policy is actually the only tool in the hands
of the government which directly affects the
economic trends in the near term, given that
automatism “ currency board “ almost entirely by monetary policy. In fact , fiscal sustainability is also represents a prerequisite for
the sustainability of the “ currency board “ in
Bosnia. Finally , fiscal sustainability is a fundamental prerequisite for the implementation
of infrastructure and other development programs of the country.
LITERATURA
LITERATURE
Marić, Lj. (2007). Utjecaj poreske politike
na ekonomski rast (str. 72). Neum:
VIII međunarodni simpozij, Reforme
BIH put ka EU integracijama.
Marić, Lj. (2007). The impact of tax policy
on economic growth (p. 72). Neum:
VIII međunarodni simpozij, Reforme
BIH put ka EU integracijama.
Ristić, Ž. (2010). Fiskalna strategija,
strategijski menadžment javnih
finansija. Beograd.
Ristić, Ž. (2010) Fiscal strategy, strategic
management of public finance (p.
278). Beograd.
Vjeće ministara (2011). Ekonomski trendovi
2011. Dostupno na: http://www.dep.
gov.ba/dep_publikacije/ekonomski_
trendovi/Archive.aspx?langTag=bsBA&template_id=140&pageIndex=1
Vjeće ministara (2011). Economic trends
2011. Available at: http://www.dep.
gov.ba/dep_publikacije/ekonomski_
trendovi/Archive.aspx?langTag=bsBA&template_id=140&pageIndex=1
Odjeljenje za makroekonomsku analizu.
OMA bilteni. Dostupno na: http://
www.oma.uino.gov.ba/04_oma_
bilten.asp?l=h
Odjeljenje za makroekonomsku analizu.
OMA biltens. Available at: http://
www.oma.uino.gov.ba/04_oma_
bilten.asp?l=h
116
DIGITALNA EKONOMIJA - DIGITAL ECONOMY
POSLOVNA INTELIGENCIJA
BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE
Cvijetin Maletić, dipl. ek.
Stručni članak
doi 10.7251/OIK1301010M, UDK 007:005.51]:004
Professional paper
REZIME
SUMMARY
Poslovna inteligencija obuhvata procese, tehnologije i alate koji nam pomažu pri
transformaciji podatka u informacije, informacija u znanje i znanja u planove za vođenje
organizacije.
Business intelligence includes the
processes, technologies and tools that help
in transforming data into informations, informations into knowledge and knowledge into
plans for management of the organization.
BI (Business Intelligence) sistemi pomažu pri ispitivanju i analizama (ad hoc izvještavanje, alati za analizu), izvještavanju (kontrolne table, analiza trenda), planu, budžetu i
prognozama (plan – ostvareno); menadžmentu
učinaka (pokazatelji). Ovi sistemi omogućavaju jedinstven pristup informacijama, blagovremeni odgovor na poslovna pitanja i korišćenje
BI sistema u svim dijelovima organizacije.
Business Intelligence (BI) systems
help t: testing and analysis (ad-hoc reporting,
analysis tools), reporting (dashboards, trend
analysis) to plan, budget and forecast (plan achieved) performance management (indicators). These systems provide a unique access
to informations, response to business issues,
and the use of BI systems throughout the organization.
Osnovna ograničenja BI softvera su
visoka cijena i dug vremenski period implementacije ovakvog sistema.
The main limitations of BI software
are high cost and long period of implementation of such a system.
Bitan pojam vezan za primjenu ovih
softvera poslovne inteligencije je Data Mininga (rudarenje). Rudarenje podataka (eng.
data mining) možemo definisati kao pronalaženje zakonitosti u podacima. Područja u
kojima se rudarenje podataka može uspješno
primjenjivati su raznolika, na primjer, poslovanje preduzeća, ekonomija, mehanika, medicina, genetika itd.
An important concept related to the
application of the business intelligence software is a Data Mining (mining). Data mining
(Eng. Data Mining) can be defined as finding
regularities in data. The areas in which Data
Mining can be successfully applied are varied, for example, the company’s operations,
economics, mechanics, medicine, and genetics and so on.
Ključne riječi: poslovna inteligencija, BI,
OLAP, data mining.
Keywords: business intelligence, BI, OLAP,
Data Mining.
UVOD
INTRODUCTION
Svaka organizacija koja se bavi proizvodnom funkcijom, i profitom kao krajnjim
ciljem, predstavlja zapravo jedan dinamički
sistem, koji karakteriše njegovo trenutno stanje kao i stanja u koja sistem može da pređe
Any organization that deals with the
production function, and profit as the ultimate goal, is actually a dynamic system,
which is characterized by its current state
and the state in which the system can move
117
C. Maletić: POSLOVNA INTELIGENCIJA
u budućnosti. Ova stanja predstavljena su
pomoću mnoštva podataka, koji se bilježe
u različitim vrstama informacionih sistema,
dokumentima i nekim drugim nosiocima
informacija. Obrada ovih podataka, pronalaženje uzročno–posledičnih veza (korelacija) između njih i njihova transformacija
u informacije predstavlja značajan razvojni
potencijal. Informacije su ključni faktor za
donošenje odluka na bilo kom nivou od operativnog, preko srednjeg do strateškog nivoa
odlučivanja. Stoga njihovo adekvatno generisanje i interpretacija u značajnoj mjeri utiču
na izbor modela upravljačkih akcija, koje će
menadžment preduzeća koristiti. Elektronski način poslovanja postaje nezaobilazan i
dominantan u odnosu na dosadašnje metode
poslovanja (dosta sporije i manje efikasne),
a osnovni pokazatelji uspješnosti poslovanja
(efikasnost, efektivnost, produktivnost i rentabilnost) u direktnoj su vezi sa kvalitetom
i stepenom implementacije informacionih
tehnologija koje se koriste u te svrhe.
to the future. These states are represented
by a large amount of data, which is recorded in various types of information systems,
document and other sources of information.
The processing of these data, find the causal relationship (correlation) between them
and their transformation into information is
a significant potential for growth. Information is a key factor in decision-making at any
level of operating through the middle to the
strategic level of decision making. Therefore, their proper interpretation and generate
significantly influence the choice of model management actions, which will use the
company’s management. Electronic mode of
operation becomes inevitable and dominant
compared to current methods of doing business (slower and less efficient), and the main
performance indicators (efficiency, effectiveness, productivity, and profitability), are
directly related to the quality and degree of
implementation of information technologies
used for this purpose.
Informacione tehnologije čine infrastrukturnu osnovu za odvijanje procesa u
jednom savremenom poslovnom sistemu. Poslovna inteligencija (Business Intelligence) je
dio informacionog sistema organizacije koji
je namjenski razvijen da omogući upravljanje
performansama organizacije. Poslovna inteligencija je oblast u okviru informacionih tehnologija, čiji je cilj da ukupne informacione
potencijale preduzeća stavi u funkciju donošenja najkvalitetnijih odluka kako bi se ostvarili utvrđeni strateški ciljevi preduzeća. To je
vrlo kompleksna oblast koja uključuje razne
vrste tehnologija i pristupa iz oblasti informacionih tehnologija, menadžmenta, statistike i
matematike. Osnovno pitanje koje se nameće
kada se govori o ovim još uvijek inovativnim
softverskim rješenjima u svijetu modernog
biznisa jeste „Da li koristiti sistem poslovne
inteligencije ili ne?“ –”To BI or not to BI?”
Information technology infrastructure
are the basis for the process in a modern business system. Business Intelligence Business
Intelligence (BI) is part of the information
system of organization that is dedicated developed to enable performance management
organization. Business intelligence is an area
in the field of information technology, which
aims to overall enterprise information resources put to use making the best decisions
to achieve the strategic goals established companies. It is a very complex area that includes
various types of technologies and approaches
in the field of information technology, management, statistics and mathematics. The basic question that comes to mind when talking
about this yet innovative software solutions in
the world of modern business is”Do you use a
business intelligence system or not?”-”To BI
or not to BI?”
ŠTA JE POSLOVNA INTELIGENCIJA?
WHAT IS BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE?
Da bismo znali što je u stvari, poslovna inteligencija, ili Business Intelligence, po-
In order to know what is actually a
business intelligence or business intelligence,
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C. Maletić: BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE
trebno je prvo definisati pojam kako bismo
znali na koji način, u kojim slučajevima upotrebljavati termin i što se zapravo misli kada
se kaže Business Intelligence. Poslovna inteligencija kao disciplina osmišljena je sedamdesetih godina dvadesetog vijeka, a jedna od
mnogobrojnih definicija glasi:
first we must define the term in order to know
in what way, in which case use the term and
what is actually meant by Business Intelligence. Business Intelligence as a discipline
designed in the seventies of the twentieth
century, and one of the many definitions as
follows:
Business Intelligence (BI) je korišćenje kolektivnog znanja organizacije, s ciljem
postizanja konkurentskih prednosti.
Business Intelligence (BI) is use the
collective knowledge of the organization, in
order to achieve a competitive advantage.
Poslovna inteligencija obuhvata
procese, tehnologije i alate koji nam pomažu pri transformaciji podatka u informacije, informacija u znanje i znanja u planove
za vođenje organizacije. Pojam poslovne
inteligencije (eng. Business Intelligence,
BI) objedinjava metodologije, tehnologije
i platforme za skladištenje podataka (Data
Warehousing), mrežnu analitičku obradu
podataka (OLAP Online Analytical Processing) i rudarenje podataka (Data Mining)
koje omogućavaju poslovnim organizacijama kreiranje korisnih upravljačkih informacija iz podataka o poslovanju koji se nalaze
disperzovani na različitim transakcijskim
sistemima i dolaze iz različitih internih i
eksternih izvora. Ovako predstavljene informacije se koriste za efikasnije strateške,
taktičke i operativne preglede i donošenje
odluka. Na osnovu toga izvodi se zaključak
da je poslovna inteligencija zapravo tehnika poslovnog izvještavanja, koja omogućava pronalaženje informacija potrebnih za
lakše, brže i tačnije donošenje poslovnih
odluka. Poslovna inteligencija je nastala,
odnosno evoluirala iz sistema za podršku
odlučivanju koji se koristio u američkim
kompanijama šezdesetih godina 20. veka.
Pojam Business Intelligence se u srpskom
jeziku prevodi kao poslovna inteligencija.
Međutim, u engleskom jeziku riječ Intelligence ima dva značenja: sposobnost učenja, razumijevanja, logičkog razmišljanja,
sposobnost da se te stvari rade dobro; tajna
informacija sakupljena o stranoj zemlji, naročito neprijateljskoj, osobe koje sakupljaju te informacije. Osnov za razumijevanje
pojma BI jesu tri stavke (načela): (1) etičan
Business intelligence includes the
processes, technologies and tools that
help in transforming data into information, information into knowledge and
knowledge into plans for management of
the organization. The term Business Intelligence (Business Intelligence, BI) combines methodologies, technologies and
platforms for data storage (Data Warehousing), network analytical processing
(OLAP Online Analytical Processing) and
Data Mining that enable enterprise organizations to create useful management information from the data on the operations
that are dispersed in different transaction
systems and come from a variety of internal and external sources. Such information is presented for the efficient use
of strategic and tactical and operational
audits and making decisions. Based on
this it can be concluded that the business
intelligence actually a technique that lets
you find the information needed to make
it easier, faster and more accurate decision making. Business intelligence is created or evolved from a decision support
system used in the U.S. companies sixties of the 20th century. The concept of
Business Intelligence in the Serbian language translates as business intelligence.
But, in the English language the word
intelligence has two meanings: the ability to learn, understand, logical thinking,
an ability to do things well; secret information collected about a foreign country,
especially a hostile, people collecting the
information. The basis for understanding
the concept of BI are three items (prin119
C. Maletić: POSLOVNA INTELIGENCIJA
proces prikupljanja informacija, koje nakon
adekvatne obrade postaju znanje; (2) proces
usmjeren na informacije na osnovu kojih se
planiraju budući događaji; i (3) instrument
koji ima potpunu ulogu u procesu donošenja odluka.
ciples): (1) ethical process of gathering
information, which, after appropriate processing becomes knowledge; (2) the focus on information that is planning future
events; and (3) the instrument that has a
full role in the decision-making process.
ZAŠTO POSLOVNA INTELIGENCIJA?
WHY BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE?
Jedno od osnovnih pitanja koje
često postavljaju sebi organizacije, odnosno njihov menadžment jeste upravo
to zašto su nam neophodni i šta će to
unaprediti uvođenje ovih, napomenimo,
nimalo jeftinih sistema. Osnovni razlozi
uvođenja sistema poslovne inteligencije
su slјedeći:
One of the main questions that is
often asked by the organization itself,
and its management is exactly why we
needed and what will promote the introduction of these, we note, no cheap system. The main reasons for the introduction of business intelligence systems are
as follows:
1.
Okolina nije više statična. Ponuda proizvoda i usluga je ogromna, konkurencija
je velika. Istraživanja pokazuju da danas
ponuda roba i usluga barem 30% nadmašuje potražnju (tržišta su zasićena).
Nove okolnosti traže nova rješenja, novi
izazovi nove napore. Prošla su vremena
kada je bilo dovoljno proizvesti robu ili
uslugu.
1.
2.
Globalizacijom tržišta, razvojem distribucionih kanala,”uplitanjem” interneta
u poslovanje, stvari su se promijenile.
Sada su kupac i prodavac na udaljenosti
jednog klika mišem. Danas su preduzeća pretrpana podacima, dok, s druge
strane, postoji nedostatak korisnih informacija. Da bi se smanjio raskorak
između količine raspoloživih podataka i informacija, potrebno je definisati
procese prikupljanja podataka i njihovu”preradu” u informacije. Vrijeme reakcije na okolinu treba skratiti, po mogućnosti do real time.
2. Globalization of markets, the development of distribution channels,”interference” in the internet business, things have
changed. Now the buyer and seller are at
the distance of a click of the mouse. Today, the company are overloaded with
data. On the other hand, there is a lack of
useful information. To minimize the gap
between the amount of available data and
information necessary to define the processes of data collection and their”processing” in the information. The response
time to the environment should be reduced, preferably to real time.
3.
Resursi su uvijek ograničeni. Vrijeme
kao najvažniji faktor gotovo uvijek je
presudno. Stoga treba znati gdje postaviti polugu da bi se pomjerio veliki
kamen. Kako treba djelovati da bismo
s najmanje napora riješili najveće probleme?
3.
120
Environment is no longer static. Offered
products and services are huge, the competition is high. Research shows that
present supply of goods and services at
least 30% exceeds demand (markets are
saturated). New circumstances require
new solutions, new challenges of the
new effort. Just production of goods and
services is now a past.
Resources are always limited. Time as
the most important factor is almost always essential. Therefore, you should
know where to set the lever to move a
large rock. How to act in order with a
minimum of fuss resolve most problems?
C. Maletić: BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE
4.
Dekompozicija lanca vrijednosti (nabavka, skladištenje, proizvodnja, prodaja, postprodajne aktivnosti) omogućava
pravilnu upotrebu efekta poluge. Osim
toga, ona nam omogućava pronalaženje
fundamentalnih rješenja za postojeće
probleme, a ne ublažavanje simptoma.
Obično je efekat poluge najveći u prodaji.
4.
Decomposition of the value chain (procurement, storage, production, sales,
after-sales activities) to the proper use
of a lever effect. In addition, it allows
us to find fundamental solutions to
existing problems, not the symptom.
Usually the effect is greatest leverage
in sales.
5.
Nalaženje novih kupaca je deset puta
skuplje nego zadržavanje postojećih.
Ako preduzeće uspije smanjiti odlazak
kupaca konkurenciji za 5%, velika je
vjerovatnoća da time može udvostručiti
svoju zaradu.
5. Finding new customers is ten times
more expensive than retaining existing
ones. If the company fails to reduce the
exodus of buyers competing for 5%, it
is very likely that this may double their
earnings.
6.
Velika opasnost preduzeću prijeti od
skrivenog nezadovoljstva kupaca.
Samo 4% nezadovoljnih kupaca se žali
na loš kvalitet proizvoda ili usluga.
90% kupaca koji nisu zadovoljni kvalitetom proizvoda, izbjegavaće taj proizvod. Svaki od nezadovoljnih kupaca
obavijestiće drugih deset do dvadeset
osoba.
6. A great danger threatens the enterprise
of hidden customer dissatisfaction. Only
4% of dissatisfied customers complain
about the poor quality of products or
services. 90% of customers who are not
satisfied with the quality of the product,
will avoid the product. Each of dissatisfied customers will inform the other ten
to twenty people.
7. Kupci odlaze jer su nezadovoljni,
iako se nikada nisu žalili. Kupac
koji kompaniju napusti, više se ne
vraća.
7. Customers are leaving because they are
unhappy, though they never complained.
A buyer who leave a company, it cannot
return.
8.
Kupci (uz zaposlene i njihovo znanje) predstavljaju najveću vrijednost
koju preduzeće posjeduje. Kako ih
zadržati? Stabilni odnosi s kupcima
ključ su dugoročne uspješnosti preduzeća.
8.
9.
Osiguranje i održavanje likvidnosti operativni je upravljački problem.
Rješenja ovog problema izravno utiču
na upravljanje poslovnim rezultatom.
Da bi se ovladalo ovim operativnim
problemima, treba poznavati svoje kupce, dobavljače, procese i veze
među njima.
9. Maintenance of operational liquidity management is the problem. Solutions to this problem directly affect
performance of management. In order
to master these operational problems,
company should be familiar with their
customers, suppliers, processes, and
connections between them.
10. Da bi cijeli ciklus operativnog kontrolinga (prikupljanje podataka, planiranje, analiza i kontrola te upravljanje)
u preduzeću funkcionisao, treba imati
informacionu infrastrukturu.
10. To keep the cycle Operating Controlling
(data collection, planning, analysis and
control, and management) in the company to work, to have the information infrastructure.
Customers (with employees and their
knowledge) is the largest value that the
company owns. How to keep them?
Stable relationships with customers
are the key to long-term success of the
company.
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C. Maletić: POSLOVNA INTELIGENCIJA
Prošlost
Past
Sadašnjost
Present
What happened?
What’s happening?
Why did something happen?
What’s going to happen?
Future
What we want to happen?
Shema 1. Zašto koristiti BI sistem?
(Dattatreysindol, 2013)
Sheme 1. Why should we use BI system?
(Dattatreysindol, 2013)
BI sistemi pomažu pri: (1) ispitivanju
i analizi (ad hoc izještavanje, alati za analizu);
(2) izvještavanju (kontrolne table, analiza trenda); (3) izradi plana, budžeta i prognoze (plan
– ostvareno); i (4) upravljanju učincima (pokazateljima).
BI systems help to: (1) testing and
analysis (ad-hoc reporting, analysis tools);
(2) reporting (dashboards, trend analysis);
(3) preparation of plans, budgets and forecasts (plan - achieved); and (4) performance
management (indicators).
BI omogućuje organizacijama sistemsko promovisanje kulture razumijevanja i
preduzimanje akcija putem: (1) donošenja
odluka baziranih na činjenicama; (2) kvalitetu
informacija; (3) smislenosti oblika informacija; (4) kvantiteta informacija; i (5) dijeljenja
informacija.
BI enables organizations to systematically promote cultural understanding and
taking action through: (1) making decisions
based on facts; (2) the quality of information;
(3) coherence forms of information; (4) the
quantity of information; and (5) sharing of information.
Ko koristi BI sistem?
Who uses BI system?
BI sistem je izvorno bio namijenjen
donosiocima odluka, odnosno ljudima koji
donose poslovne odluke. U savremenim poduzećima odluke donose svi. Ne moraju svi
odlučivati, ali mogu svi predlagati. To nije
povratak u samoupravljanje, već pružanje prilike svima koji mogu dati doprinos očuvanju
vitalnosti poduzeća. Informacije i znanje potrebni su svima.
BI system was originally designed for
decision makers and the people who make
business decisions. Today, corporate decisions are made by everyone. Not all decisions,
but all we can suggest. It’s not a return to the
self-management, but to provide opportunities
for all those who can contribute to the preservation of the vitality of enterprises. Information and knowledge are needed by everyone.
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PODJELA SISTEMA
POSLOVNE INTELIGENCIJE
DIVISION AND DEVELOPMENT
OF BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE SYSTEM
Komponente sistema poslovne
inteligencije
Components of a business intelligence
system
Više je različitih vrsta podjela komponenti koje, načelno, ne predstavljaju preveliku važnost u osnovnom definisanju i razumijevanju poslovne inteligencije. Jedina podjela
koja na ovom nivou jeste važna je ona osnovna, koja obuhvata:
There are several different types of
the components that, in general, are not too
important in the basic definition and understanding of business intelligence. The only
division that at this level is important to basic,
includes:
1.infrastrukturu - baza za skladištenje podataka, ETL alati (služe za prikupljanje
podataka iz više različitih izvora, nezavisno od tehnološkog rješenja), operativno
skladištenje podataka;
1.
infrastructure - database for data warehousing, ETL tools (used to collect data
from multiple sources, regardless of the
technological solutions), the operational
data storage;
2.
funkcionalnost - data Mining (obrađeno
zasebno u nastavku), BI platforme, aplikacije (operativne, strateške i analitičke), ad-hoc izvještavanje;
2.
functionality - Data Mining (treated separately below), BI platforms, applications (operational, strategic and analytical), ad- hoc reporting;
3.
organizacija - mjerenje performansi,
informaciona/korporativna kultura, BI
metodologija, BI centralizacija (objedinjavanje znanja i vještina);
3.
organization - performance Measurement, Information/corporate culture, BI
methodology, centralized BI (integration
of knowledge and skills);
4.
poslovanje - ključni pokazatelji uspiješnosti, transparentnost, trendovi.
4.
management - the key indicators of the performance of external transparency, trends.
Razvoj sistema poslovne
inteligencije
Development of a business
intelligence system
Intenzivan razvoj BI-a direktno se vezuje za period kada su preduzeća počela masovno da automatizuju svoje poslovne procese, kroz implementaciju različitih sistema, te
time stvorila mogućnost generisanja velikih
količina podataka. Došlo je do eksplozije
podataka, koja se ogledala u eksponencijalnom rastu njihovih količina. Rastao je i broj
baza u koje su se podaci smještali, ali automatizam pretrage ili nije postojao, ili je bio
vrlo nerazvijen. Praktično, posjedovale su se
brojni podaci koji su bili neupotrebljivi, zato
što im je bilo teško pristupiti. Paralelno sa
tim, razvijala se i svijest da ti podaci mogu
biti od velike koristi u rukama menadžmenta.
Intensive development of BI is directly linked to the period when the company began to automate their business processes through the implementation of various
systems, and thus create the possibility of
generating large amounts of data. There has
been an explosion of data, which is reflected in the exponential growth of their quantity. Increased the number of bases that have
placed the data, but automatism search did
not exist or were very underdeveloped. Practically, they possessed a large amount of
data that were unusable because they were
difficult to access. In parallel, there was the
awareness that these data can be very useful
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Menadžment, međutim, ne radi sa podacima,
već sa informacijama, a kako su informacije =
obrađeni podaci, jasno je da je cilj bio razviti
sistem koji će obrađivati podatke. Na temelju
podataka koje je objavio Nigel Pendse (2008)
mogu se vidjeti razvoj BI tržišta kroz period
od 14 godina, kao i prognoze njegova rasta,
gdje se može zapaziti kako je postepeno u periodu od 1994. godine do 2007. godine rasla
vrijednost BI tržišta, iskazana u milijardama
dolara, sa vrijednosti od 0,5 milijardi američkih dolara (koliko je iznosila vrijednost tržišta u 1994. godini), do iznosa od 6,9 milijardi
američkih dolara (koliko je iznosila vrijednost
ovog tržišta 2008. godine.
in the hands of management. Management,
however, does not work with data, but the
information and how the information = data
analyzed, it is clear that the aim was to develop a system that will process the data. Based
on the data presented by Nigel Pendse (2008)
can see the development of the BI market
over a period of 14 years, and forecasts of
its growth, which can be seen as gradually
in the period since 1994th until 2007th. The
rising value of the BI market, expressed in
billions of dollars, with a value of $ 0.5 billion (which was the market value in 1994.),
up to 5.5 billion U.S. dollars (which was the
value of this market 2007a. year.
Tabela 1
Rast OLAP tržišta
(Ariiproject, 2008)
Table 1
The growth of OLAP market Source
(Ariiproject, 2008)
Godina
Year
1994.
1996.
1998.
2000.
2001.
2002.
2003.
2004.
2005.
2006.
2007.
2008.
Najvažnije je naglasiti da se u ovom
sistemu, redom, uočavaju sistemi za upravljanje sadržajem, ETL alati, BI alati, analitički
sistemi i korisnici (menadžeri) na samom kraju.
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Vrijednost u milijardama $
Value in billions $
0,5
0,95
2,05
3
3,3
3,5
3,7
4,3
4,8
5,5
6,4
6,9
The most important thing is to emphasize that in this system, respectively, it should
be noted content management systems, ETL
tools, BI tools, analytical systems and users
(managers) at the end.
C. Maletić: BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE
Shema 2. Infrastrukture BI (Passionned Group, 2013)
Scheme 2. BI infrastructure (Passionned Group, 2013)
KARAKTERISTIKE POSLOVNE
INTELIGENCIJE
CHARACTERISTICS OF BUSINESS
INTELLIGENCE
Osnovne karakteristike sistema poslovne inteligencije (eng. Business Intelligence) su: (1) jedinstven pristup informacijama;
(2) blagovremeni odgovori na poslovna pitanja; i (3) korišćenje BI sistema u svim dijelovima organizacije.
Main features of Business Intelligence
(Business Intelligence), are the following:
(1) unified access to information; (2) answers
to business questions, at the time and (3) the
use of BI systems throughout the in every part
of organization.
Ove tri osnovne karakteristike sistema
ujedno su i tri osnovne prednosti koje implementacija i uvođenje ovog sistema u poslovni
proces donosi.
These are the three basic characteristics
of the system, which is also referred to as the three
primary advantages of introduction and implementation of this system in the business process brings.
Prednosti sistema poslovne inteligencije
The benefits of Business Intelligence
Kao osnovne prednosti korišćenja
sistema poslovne inrteligencije navode se
sljedeće karakteristike koje ovaj sistem pruža: (1) poboljšanje operativne efikasnosti;
(2) eliminacija zaostalih izvještaja i kašnjenja; (3)pronalaženje uzroka problema i preduzimanje mjera u skladu sa tim; (4) bolja
komunikacija sa kupcima i dobavljačima;
As the primary advantages of using
systems Business Intelligence, provides
the following characteristics of the system:
(1) improve operational efficiency; (2) the
elimination of the backlog of reports and
delays; (3) finding the cause of the problem
and take measures accordingly; (4) better
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(5) identifikacija „rasipanja resursa“ i smanjenje troškova zaliha; (6) prodaja informacija
klijentima, partnerima i dobavljačima; (7) poboljšanje strategije sa boljom marketinškom
analizom; (8) davanje korisnicima sredstava da donose bolje odluke; i (9) suočavanje
pretpostavki sa činjenicama. (Izbačena stavka
koja je glasila Iskoristite vašu investiciju u
ERP ili skladište podataka).
ers; (5) identification of” waste of resources” and reducing inventory costs; (6) sales
information to customers, partners and suppliers; (7) improving strategies with better marketing analysis; (8) gives users the
means to make better decisions; (9) dealing assumptions with facts. (Dropped item
which said Take your investment in ERP or
data warehouse).
Ograničenja sistema
poslovne inteligencije
The limitations of business
intelligence systems
Osnovni nedostaci, odnosno i ograničenja koja prate, sisteme poslovne inteligencije su: (1) visoka cijena softvera; (2)
skupa i vremenski duga obuka za korišćenje;
(3) zahtjeva široku paletu različitih stručnjaka
iz oblasti tehnologije; (4) miješanje podataka
koji potiču iz različitih izvora; (5) slanje zahtjeva za dobijanje potrebnih informacija od
sistema poslovne inteligencije može biti mučno i dugotrajno sa aspekta korisnika sistema.
The main disadvantages, and we can
say restrictions that accompany such systems, like business intelligence systems are:
(1) the high cost of software; (2) expensive and
long time training to use; (3) requires a large
range of experts in the field of technology; (4)
mixing data from different sources; (5) send
requests to retrieve data from business intelligence systems can be tedious and time-consuming, with aspect of the system users.
IMPLEMENTACIJA
I PRIMJENA
IMPLEMENTATIONS AND
APPLICATIONS
Uvođenje BI sistema je proces kome,
praktično, nema kraja. U vrijeme nestabilne
okoline, hiperkonkurencije koja postaje sve
agresivnija, a, time, i neizvjesne budućnosti,
poslovna inteligencija mora neprestano da se
razvija, jer zahtjevi analize i prognoze postaju sve složeniji, naročito kada se doda potreba za velikom brzinom obrade i izvršavanja
(real time kao ključni pojam informisanja
danas).
The introduction of BI systems is a
process which is practically endless. At the
time of the unstable environment that is becoming hyper aggressive, and therefore an
uncertain future, business intelligence must
constantly evolve as requirements analysis
and forecasts become more complex, especially when added to the need for high speed
processing and performance (real-time as a
key notion of information now).
Gdje kupiti BI sistem
i koja je njegova cijena?
Where to buy a BI system
and how much it cost?
Postavlja se pitanje cijene ovakvih
sistema i troškova informacija. U 21. vijeku, vijeku informacija i znanja, cijena informacije jednaka je cijeni opstanka na tržištu.
Uvođenje sistema za upravljanje poslovnim
informacijama je isplativa investicija. Knji-
Raises the question of the price of such
systems and cost information. In the 21 Ages,
Ages of information and knowledge, price of
information is equal to the price of survival in
the market. Establishment of a system for management of business information is a profitable
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govodstvo ne bilježi oportunitetne troškove
loših poslovnih odluka na osnovi nedostatka
informacija. Takve promašaje bilježe berza
i konkurencija. Ta dva”mjerna instrumenta”
nepogrešivo znaju kazniti slabosti poslovanja. BI sistem ne postoji kao gotov proizvod,
postoje proizvođači koji nude tehnološke
platforme i znanja za implementaciju. Nema
rješenja s police. Razlog tome jest činjenica
da modeli odlučivanja jesu slični, ali strategija, segmentacija tržišta i proizvoda, procesi i veze među njima su različite. Heterogeni
su takođe izvori podataka koji ”hrane” ove
sisteme.
investment. Accounting does not record opportunity costs of bad business decisions based on
lack of information. Such failures are recorded
stock market and competition. These two”gauges” unmistakably know penalize weaknesses of
business. BI system does not exist as a finished
product, there are manufacturers that offer technology platforms and knowledge to implement.
There are no off the shelf solutions. The reason
for this is the fact that the decision models are
similar, but the strategy, market segmentation
and product, processes and relationships between them are different. Are also heterogeneous data sources that”food” these systems.
Veliki dobavljači proizvođači se ugrubo dijele u dvije grupe baza podataka - IBM,
Oracle i Microsoft - čije baze služe kao temelj
za izgradnju skladišta podataka. Tu platformu
oni koriste kao osnovicu. Klijentima takođe
nude i front-end alate za krajnjeg korisnika
kao i implementaciju i poslovne modele.
Big manufacturers are roughly divided into two groups of databases - IBM, Oracle and Microsoft - whose bases are used as
a basis for building a data warehouse. That
platform they use as a base. Clients also offer
front-end tools for end users, implementation
and business models.
Izvorni BI dobavljači, od kojih treba
izdvojiti četiri velika koji imaju značajnu prisutnost i na našem regionalnom tržištu – SAS,
Cognos, Business Objects i Micro Strategy.
Njihov glavni fokus su front-end alati za krajnje korisnike koji se mogu vezati na bilo koju
od platformi za bazu podataka. Oni su, izuzev
SAS-a koji je prisutan s lokalnim kancelarijima u zemljama našeg regiona, prisutni preko
ovlaštenih distributera.
Original manufacturers, and from
which need to allocate the four great that have
a significant presence on the regional market
- SAS, Cognos, Business Objects and Micro
Strategy. Their main focus is the front-end
tools for end users that can be connected to
any of the platforms for the database. They
are, except for the SAS which is present with
subsidiaries in the countries of our region,
present through authorized distributors.
Primjena
Application
Mnoge velike i srednje firme aktivno pristupaju pojmu poslovne inteligencije,
razvijaju i implementiraju takve sisteme i
koriste ih u svom elektronskom poslovanju.
Firme uspijevaju pretvoriti informacije u poslovnu inteligenciju, poslovnu inteligenciju
u korporativno znanje, a kolektivno znanje u
povećani profit. U skladu sa ranije rečenim,
može se navesti nekoliko oblasti u kojima je
pogodna primjena sistema poslovne inteligencije: (1) smanjenje operativnih troškova,
realizacija ciljeva prodaje, unapređenje sistema nabavke; (2) korišćenje OLAP-a (OnLine
Many large and medium-sized companies active approach to the notion of business intelligence, development and implementation of these systems and use them in
your e-business. Companies thrive to turn
information into business intelligence, business intelligence in corporate knowledge and
collective knowledge to increase profits. According to the previous description, can be
specified several areas in which suitable application of business intelligence: (1) reduction in operating costs, the realization of sales
targets, improving the procurement system;
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Analitical Processing) za smanjivanje troškova IT sektora, otkrivanje novih mogućnosti za
dobit, unapređenje upravljanja troškovima;
(3) korišćenje Data Mininga za pronalaženje
ključnih parametara vezanih za određeni segment kupaca.
(2) Using OLAP (OnLine Analytical Processing) to reduce the cost of IT sector, discover new opportunities for profit improvement
cost management; (3) using Data Mining to
find the key parameters related to a specific
customer segment.
Sve navedene primjene moguće su
samo uz korišćenje sofisticiranih alata i aplikacija, ukoliko su podaci pripremljeni u formatima pogodnim za razne vrste analiza. Za poslovne korisnike je od važnosti da imaju alate i
aplikacije kojima će biti u stanju da analiziraju
podatke, dok je za IT osobe važno da posjeduju aplikacije i alate za stvaranje i upravljanje okruženjem za poslovnu inteligenciju. U
tu svrhu koriste se različiti alati kao što su: (1)
namjenske aplikacije; (2) alati za izvršavanje
upita; (3) OLAP alati; (4) alati za statističku
analizu; i (5) alati za Data Mining i dr.
All these applications are only possible with the use of sophisticated tools and
applications, if the data are prepared in a format suitable for various types of analysis. For
business users it is important to have the tools
and applications you will be able to analyze
the data, and the IT people important to have
the applications and tools to create and manage the environment for business intelligence.
For this purpose, various tools such as: (1)
dedicated applications; (2) tools for querying;
(3) OLAP tools; (4) tools for statistical analysis; (5) tools for Data Mining and others.
Tehnike integracije
poslovne inteligencije
Techniques of integration
of business intelligence
Pitanje integracije u postojeće poslovne procese je jedno od osnovnih pitanja na
početku primjene bilo kog sistema. Odgovor
je identifikacija uloge BI-a u svakom od procesa, zatim integracija u te procese i primjena
u okviru postojećih informacionih sistema.
Bitno je razumijeti da su ljudi ti koji sprovode
procese, a aplikacije samo alati kojima se oni
služe. Poslovna inteligencija se može integrisati u poslovne procese preduzeća na nekoliko načina:
The issue of integration into existing
business processes is one of the fundamental
questions at the beginning of implementation of
any system. The answer is to identify the role of
BI in each process, then the integration of these
processes and the application of the existing information systems. It is important to understand
that the people who carry out these processes,
and applications just tools they used. Business
intelligence can be integrated into the business
processes of the company in several ways:
1.
integracijom analitičkih aplikacija sa operativnim aplikacijama korišćenjem”enterprise” portala da bi podacima mogli pristupiti i interni i eksterni korisnici;
1.
2.
ugrađivanjem analitičkih metoda u operativne aplikacije u procesu razvoja aplikacija;
2. incorporating analytical methods in operational applications in the development of applications;
3.
uvođenjem web servisa koji će dinamički integrisati analitičke metode internim
ili partnerskim operativnim aplikacijama
radi podrške zajedničkom poslovanju.
3. the introduction of web services to dynamically integrate analytical methods
of internal operational or partner applications, to support joint operations.
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integration of analytic applications with
operational applications using the” enterprise” data portal to gain access to
internal and external customers;
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POJAM I ZNAČAJ
DATA MININGA
THE CONCEPT AND IMPORTANCE
OF DATA MINING
Za bolje razumijevanje istraživanja i
samog područja rudarenja podataka prvo je
potrebno objasniti njegovo značenje. Analogija s rudarstvom je očigledna. U potrazi
za rudom koja je sakrivena negdje u planini,
neophodno je duboko kopati, izbaciti velike
količine zemlje i kamena (jalovine, u našem
slučaju nepotrebnih podataka), a, kada se
jednom naiđe na žilu, neophodno je pratiti
je cijelom dužinom. Rudarenje podataka je
prirodna evolucija tehnologije, a koja upotrebljava koncepte, metode i tehnike različitih
disciplina kao što su baze podataka, statistika
i vještačka inteligencija. Tehnologija baza podataka se razvila iz primitivnih u sofisticirane
i moćne sisteme baza podataka kakve danas
poznajemo. Taj razvoj omogućio je bilježenje i sakupljanje ogromnih količina podataka,
što je neizbježno dovelo i do potrebe obrade i
analize tih podataka, a sve u svrhu dobijanja
korisnih informacija i znanja. Same tehnike
rudarenja podataka rezultat su dugog procesa
istraživanja i razvoja statističkih algoritama.
Ova evolucija je započela još kad su poslovni podaci prvi put uskladišteni u kompjutere,
a nastavlja se kontinuirano s unapređenjem
pristupa podacima i u posljednje vrijeme, generisanjem tehnologija koje omogućuju korisnicima navigaciju kroz podatke u realnom
vremenu. Proces rudarenja podataka danas je
moguće provoditi zato što je potpomognut s
tri tehnologije koje su sada dovoljno sazrele:
(1) moćnom multiprocesorskom računarskom
tehnologijom; (2) tehnologijom za masivno
prikupljanje podataka; i (3) algoritamskim
tehnikama za rudarenje podataka.
For a better understanding the research areas of Data Mining is first necessary to explain its meaning. The analogy
with mining is obvious. Looking for a truck
that is hidden somewhere in the mountains,
it is deep to dig out large amounts of soil
and rock (overburden, in our case, unnecessary data), and once it finds a vein, it is necessary to follow the entire length. Data mining is the natural evolution of technology,
which uses the concepts, methods and techniques of different disciplines such as databases, statistics and artificial intelligence.
Database technology evolved from primitive to sophisticated and powerful database
systems as we know them. This development has enabled the recording and collecting huge amounts of data that inevitably led
to the need for processing and analysis of
these data, with the purpose of getting useful information and knowledge. Same Data
Mining techniques are the result of a long
process of research and development of statistical algorithms. This evolution started
in the business when the first data stored in
computers, and continues with the continuous improvement of data access in recent
times, generating technologies that allow
users to navigate through the data in real
time. The process of Data Mining is now
possible to implement because it is supported by the three technologies that are now
sufficiently mature: (1) powerful multiprocessor computer technology, (2) technology
for mass data collection and (3) algorithmic
techniques for Data Mining.
U evoluciji od poslovnih podataka do
poslovnih informacija i znanja, svaki novi
korak građen je na prethodnom. Zahvaljujući
Data Mining-u, moguće je predvidjeti trend
tržišta ili ponašanje konzumenata i na taj način obezbijediti uspijeh firme ili proizvoda.
To se postiže analizom podataka iz raznih
perspektiva i pronalaženjem veza i odnosa
između naizgled nepovezanih informacija.
In the evolution from business data
to business information and knowledge, each
new step is built on the previous one. Thanks to
Data Mining, it is possible to predict the trend
of the market or the behavior of consumers
and thus ensure the success of the company
or product. This is achieved by analyzing data
from different perspectives and finding connections and relationships between seemingly
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Na primjer, dinamični pristup podacima je
kritična tačka za svrdlanje (eng. drill-through) u aplikacijama za navigaciju podacima,
a osposobljenost za skladištenje ogromnih
baza podataka je kritična za proces rudarenja podataka. Proces Data Mininga neraskidivo je vezan za računare. Uz pomoć posebnog softvera, sistemi analiziraju podatke iz
različitih uglova, pronalaze hipoteze, isprobavaju ih i uče na prethodnim iskustvima.
Treba uvijek imati u vidu da je softver samo
alatka i da je i dalje potrebno ljudsko prisustvo, koje će dati posljednju riječ. Ali, u
prvoj fazi obrade kompjuterski sistemi su
nezamjenjivi zbog svoje brzine. Za razliku
od čoveka, kome bi neka očigledna veza
između dva podatka promakla, kompjuteru
takva greška ne može da se dogodi (uslovno
rečeno).
unrelated information. For example, dynamic data access is a critical point for svrdlanje
(Eng. drill -through) in applications for navigation data and the ability to store huge data
base is critical for the process of Data Mining.
The process of Data Mining is closely related
to computers. With the help of special software, systems analyze data from many different angles, find a hypothesis, experiment with
them and learn from previous experiences. It
should always be borne in mind that the software is only a tool and that it is still necessary to human presence, which will give the
last word. But, in the first stage of processing
computer systems are indispensable, because
of its speed. Unlike men, who would let an
obvious connection between the two data
missed, such a computer error can not happen
(so to speak).
Primjer 1: Lanac supermarketa. Lanac supermarketa u Americi je, koristeći
Oracle-ov softver za analizu podataka, otkrio
da su muškarci koji su kupovali pelene četvrtkom i subotom najčešće kupovali i paket
piva. Dublja analiza otkrila je da su ovi kupci
sedmičnu kupovinu obavljali subotom. Četvrtkom su kupovali samo nekoliko proizvoda, a pivo su kupovali kako bi im se našlo za
dolazeći vikend.
Example 1: Supermarket chain. The
chain of supermarkets in the United States,
using Oracle software to analyze the data, BI
found that the men who had bought diapers
on Thursdays and Saturdays usually buy a
package of beer. Closer analysis revealed that
these customers purchase performed weekly
on Saturdays. Thursdays bought only several
products, and beer are bought in order to be
found for the coming weekend.
Zahvaljujući ovoj informaciji, lanac
supermarketa je povećao prihode tako što je
vitrinu sa pivom pomjerio bliže polici sa pelenama. Jasno je da bi svakom ljudskom ekspertu veza između muškaraca, pelena, piva
i određenih dana u nedelji promakla, ali ne i
nepristrasnoj logici kompjutera.
Due to this information, the supermarket chain has increased its revenues by a glass
case of beer moved closer to the shelf with
the diapers. Clearly, the expert in every human relationship between men, diapers, beer
and certain days of the week missed, but not
the impartial logic of computers.
Primjer 2: Poštanska aplikacija Pošte Crne Gore. Poštanska aplikacija za Poštu
Crne Gore se bazira na prikupljanju i čuvanju
trenutnih, odnosno dnevnih, podataka o poštanskim transakcijama obavljenim na teritoriji cijele Crne Gore.
Example 2: Mail application Montenegro Post. Postal applications for the Post
of Montenegro is based on the collection and
preservation of the current, that is, daily, data
on postal transactions conducted on the territory of Montenegro.
Jedan dio tih podataka se transformiše
u korisne informacije i skladišti da bi se kasnije iskoristili u različitim analizama za potrebe menadžmenta.
Some of the data is transformed
into useful information and stores it for
later use in various analyzes for management.
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C. Maletić: BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE
Tabela 2
Prikaz četiri revolucionarna koraka koja su
pružila mogućnost brzih i preciznih odgovora
kakve danas zahtijeva savremeno poslovanje
(Panian, Klepac, 2003)
Period
1960-te
1960-th
Evolucijski koraci
Evolutionary steps
Prikupljanje podataka
Data Collection
1980-te
1980-th
Pristup podacima
Access to data
1990-te
1990-th
Skladištenje podataka
i sistemi za podršku
odlučivanju
[Data warehousing
and decision support
systems]
Danas
Today
Rudarenje podataka
Data Mining
Table 2:
Overview of four revolutionary steps as the
opportunity of fast and accurate answers
that modern business requires today
(Panian, Klepac, 2003)
Poslovni zahtjevi
Business Requirements
Koliki je ukupni prihod kopanije u posljednjih pet godina?
[What is the total income of the
company in the last five years?]
Tehnologija
Technology
Kompjuter,
trake, diskovi
[Computers,
tapes, discs]
Karakteristike
Characteristics
Statička isporuka istorijskih
podataka
[Static delivery
of historical data]
Kolika je bila prodaja po
Relacijske
Dinamična
određenim prodajnim jedinibaze podataka, isporuka istoricama na području Dalmacije u SQL, ODBC
jskih podataka
proteklom mjesecu?
[Relational da- na jednom nivou
[How much was the sale by
tabases, SQL, [Dynamic delivcertain selling units in Dalmatia ODBC]
ery of historical
in the last month?]
data on a single
level]
Kolika je bila prodaja u
OLAP,
Dinamična
određenim prodajnim jedinimultidi-menisporuka istoricama na području Dalmacije
zionalne baze jskih podataka
u proteklom mjesecu? Istraži
podataka,
na više nivoa
(drill down) lokalitet Split
skladište poda- [Dynamic deliv[How much was the sale of
taka
ery of historical
certain retail units in Dalmatia [OLAP, Muldata at multiple
in the last month?
tidimen-sional levels]
Explore (drill down) - Split
databases, data
area]
warehouse]
Šta se može dogoditi s prodaNapredni
Predvidiva
jom na lokalitetu Split u
algoritmi,
i proaktivna
sljedećem mjesecu? Zašto?
multiprocesor- isporuka infor[What can happen to the sale of ski kompjuteri, macija
the site split in the next month? masivne baze
[Predictable and
Why?]
podataka
proactive infor[Advanced al- mation delivery]
gorithms, multiproce-ssor
computers,
massive databases]
Osnovni tipovi Data Mininga
The main types of Data Mining
Dva osnovna tipa rudarenja podataka:
(1) verifikacija hipoteze – cilj je provjeriti da
li su neka ideja ili utisak o važnosti odnosa
među određenim podacima utemeljeni ili ne;
(2) otkrivanje novih znanja – među nekim pojavama mogu postojati neki još nepoznati, a
Two basic types of Data Mining:
(1) verification of hypotheses - the goal is to
check whether an idea or impression of the
importance of the relationship between specific data based or not ; (2) found new knowledge - among some phenomena may be some
131
C. Maletić: POSLOVNA INTELIGENCIJA
statistički važni odnosi koje čovjek ni iskustvom niti svojim intelektualnim sposobnostima ne može spoznati.
still unknown, and statistically important relationships that a man of experience or their
intellectual capacity can not be known.
Rudarenje podataka je izrazito multidisciplinarno područje i obuhvata: baze podataka, ekspertne sisteme, teoriju informacija,
statistiku, matematiku, logiku, te čitav niz pridruženih područja. Područja u kojima se rudarenje podataka može uspješno primjenjivati
su raznolika, na primjer, poslovanje preduzeća, ekonomija, mehanika, medicina, genetika
itd. Rudarenje podataka primjenjivo je u svim
onim područjima gdje se raspolaže velikom
masom podataka na osnovu kojih se žele otkriti određene pravilnosti, veze i zakonitosti.
Čitav niz faktora može uticati na ishod nekog
događaja, a zadatak je rudarenja podataka otkriti najznačajnije među njima i njihove karakteristike s obzirom na ciljana stanja.
Data mining is a highly multidisciplinary field, including: databases, expert systems, information theory, statistics,
mathematics, logic, and a number of associated areas. The areas in which Data Mining
can be successfully applied are varied. For
example, the company’s operations, economics, mechanics, medicine, genetics and
so on. Data mining is applicable in all areas
where it has a large mass of data which are
to discover regularities, relations and laws.
A variety of factors can affect the outcome
of an event, a task of Data Mining to discover the most important among them, and
their characteristics with respect to the target state.
Osnovne tehnologije za Data Mining
Basic Technology for Data Mining
Osnovne tehnike za rudarenje podataka su: (1) statističke metode, (2) genetički
algoritmi, (3) neuralne mreže, (4) stabla odlučivanja, (5) vještačka inteligencija, (6) asocijacijska pravila, itd.
Basic techniques of Data Mining
are: (1) statistical methods, (2) genetic algorithms, (3) neural networks, (4) decision
trees, (4) artificial intelligence, (6)asocijacijske rules etc..
Analitička statistika je osnova tih novih procesa za otkrivanje znanja. Iz statističke perspektive, rudarenje podataka se može
opisati kao računarski automatizovana istraživačka analiza podataka iz (obično) velikih
i složenih baza podataka s različitih platformi, lokacija, operativnih sistema i softvera.
Rudarenje podataka je izuzetno značajno u
sistemima sa mnoštvom podataka, u kojima
je moguće pronaći činjenice za koje se nije ni
znalo da postoje.
Analytical statistics are the basis of
these new processes for knowledge discovery.
From the statistical perspective, Data Mining
can be described as computer automated exploratory data analysis of (usually ) large and
complex databases with different platforms,
location, operating system and software. Data
mining is particularly important for systems
with a large amount of data, which can be
found in the fact that you did not even know
existed
Potrebna infrastruktura
Infrastructure
Softver za Data Mining je pristupačan
kako za velike mainframe sisteme tako i za
samostalne PC platforme. Cijena sistema varira od nekoliko hiljada pa do nekoliko miliona dolara, za najveće sisteme. Dva osnovna
uslova za izbor odgovarajuće platforme jesu
Software for Data Mining is affordable for large mainframe systems and for individual PC platforms. Price system varies
from a few thousand dollars to several million dollars for the largest systems. Two main
conditions to select the appropriate platform
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C. Maletić: BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE
veličina baze podataka i kompleksnost zahtjeva. Velika baza podataka sa sobom povlači veliki broj podataka koje treba skladištiti i,
održavati i samim tim, zahtijeva moćniji sistem. Kompleksnost zahtjeva i njihov veliki
broj takođe povećavaju potrebu za procesorskom moći. Ubrzavanje rješavanja upita može
se postići indeksiranjem podataka. Takođe,
paralelno procesiranje značajno ubrzava rad
s velikim bazama podataka. Stotine paralelno
vezanih (običnih) kompjutera mogu da postignu performanse jednog superkompjutera.
are database size and complexity of the application. Large database entails a large amount
of data that must be stored and maintained
and, thus, requires a more powerful system.
The complexity of the application and its
many also increase the amount of processing
power. Accelerating resolving queries can be
achieved by indexing the data. In addition,
parallel processing significantly accelerates
from large databases. Hundreds of parallel
(common ) computer can achieve a performance supercomputers.
Kako funkcioniše? - Metode
Data Mining-a
How does it work? - Methods for
Data Mining
Dva osnovna cilja DM projekata se
mogu svrstati u dvije kategorije: (1) predviđanje i (2) deskripcija.
Two main goals DM projects can be
classified into two categories: (1) prediction
and (3) describing.
Predviđanjem se pokušava iz postojećih podataka prognozirati buduće vrijednosti
varijabli (npr. prodaje), dok se deskripcijom
nastoje pronaći uzorci u podacima čijim se
interpretiranjem može objasniti ponašanje čitavog sistema. Jedna od faza u cijelom procesu otkrivanja znanja je i mapiranje konkretnih ciljeva analize s Data Mining metodama.
Ipak, mogu se definicati 3 osnovne Data Mining metode: (1) klasifikacija, (2) klastering i
(3) asocijacija.
Predictive attempts from existing data
to predict future values of the variables ( for
example: sales), while the descript, trying to
find patterns in the data, whose interpretation
of be explained by the behavior of the entire
system. One of the stages in the process of
knowledge discovery and mapping of specific
objectives of the analysis with Data Mining
methods. Three basic Data Mining methods
can be defined: (1) classification, (2) clustering and (3) associations.
Klasifikacija se bavi svrstavanjem
objekata u neku od predefinisanih kategorija.
Primjer klasifikacije je razvrstavanje tražitelja
kredita u nisko, srednje ili visoko rizičnu grupu. Ono što će se desiti „ispod haube“ je da će
Data Mining algoritam proći kroz bazu bivših
korisnika kredita te utvrditi koje to karakteristike imaju, recimo, korisnici koji nisu uredno
vraćali kredit. Pomoću tih karakteristika banka može tražitelja kredita svrstati u neku od
kategorija, te tražiti veće ili manje osiguranje
povrata sredstava.
Classification deals with the classification of objects into one of the predefined
categories. An example of classification is the
classification of applicants into low, medium
or high-risk group. What happens”under the
hood” is that, that Data Mining algorithms will
pass through the base of the former borrower
and will determine which characteristics they
have, for example, people who are not duly returned the loan. Using these characteristics, the
bank can loan seekers fall into these categories
and look more or less insurance refund.
Klasteriranje se takođe bavi svrstavanjem objekata u kategorije, samo ovdje te
kategorije nisu unaprijed definisane, što problem čini većim. Primjer primjene te metode
je razvrstavanje kupaca u kategorije prema
Clustering is also concerned with grouping objects into categories, but here you are not
pre- defined categories, which makes the problem bigger. An example application of the method is the classification of consumers into catego133
C. Maletić: POSLOVNA INTELIGENCIJA
kojima se onda mogu definisati različite marketinške strategije. Kupci su različiti, različitih ukusa, uvjerenja, stila kupovine i, što je
najvažnije, različite profitabilnosti. Zato kupce treba i različito tretirati.
ries according to which you can define a different
marketing strategy. Customers are different, different tastes, beliefs, style, shopping, and, most
importantly, different profitability. Therefore,
customers should also be treated differently.
Asocijacija se bavi pitanjem koje se
stvari dešavaju istovremeno. Tako je npr. u
Data Mining-u poznata metoda potrošačke
korpe gdje se gleda koji se proizvodi često
kupuju zajedno. Analizom podataka možete
otkriti da se često uz pjenu za brijanje kupuju
i žileti što je očigledno. Međutim, mogu se otkriti i neke skrivene veze poput primjera piva
i pelena (prethodno navedeni primjer). Proces
rudarenja podataka sastoji se od više faza koje
jedna osoba samostalno ne može izvršiti. Te
faze možemo posmatrati iz tri perspektive:
The Association deals with the issue that
things are happening at the same time. Thus, for
example. in Data Mining methods known consumer basket which is seen to be products are
often bought together. Data analysis can reveal
that often the shaving cream and razor blades
buy, and that is the obvious. However, one can
discover some hidden links as examples of beer
and diapers (the above example). The process of
Data Mining consists of several phases that one
person alone can not accomplish. These stages
can be viewed from three perspectives:
1.
Problemska perspektiva koja je važna na
samom početku i kraju rudarenja podataka. Sastoji se od odabira problema, njegova definisanja, te procjene i primjene
znanja. Osoba koja obavlja ove zadatke
može se jednostavno nazvati korisnik.
1.
Problem solving perspective, which is important at the beginning and end of Data
Mining. It consists of a selection problem, its
definition, and the evaluation and application
of knowledge. A person who performs these
tasks can be easily called by the user.
2.
Podatkovna perspektiva koja obuhvata
sve zadatke vezane uz pripremu podataka za njihovo rudarenje, a obavlja je
informatičar.
2.
Data perspective that includes all tasks
associated with preparing data for mining them, and perform a computer scientist.
3.
Metodološka perspektiva se sastoji od
svih zadataka vezanih uz analizu podataka, metode selekcije, implementacije, prezentacije i interpretacije rezultata.
Osoba zadužena za te zadatke je stručnjak
rudarenja podataka (eng. data miner).
3.
Methodological perspective consists
of all the tasks related to data analysis,
method selection, implementation, presentation and interpretation of results.
The person in charge of these tasks is an
expert Data Mining (Eng. data miner).
Primjene Data Mininga
Applications of Data Mining
Primjena Data Mininga je neograničena. Pomenuta je primjena u trgovini radi
poboljšanja prodaje nekih proizvoda. Takođe,
moguće je predvidjeti reakciju tržišta na novi
proizvod i odrediti kada je najbolji trenutak
za njegovu promociju. Ova tehnologija nalazi primjenu i u bankarstvu, gdje je, recimo,
moguće na osnovu ranijih slučajeva odrediti
da li pojedinac spada u rizičnu grupu, kada je
u pitanju davanje kredita. U medicini može
da se odredi koju terapiju treba prepisati pa-
Application of Data Mining is unlimited. The said application is in store for
boosting sales of some products. Also, it is
possible to predict the market reaction to the
new product, and when is the best time of
his promotion. This technology is also used
in the banking industry, where, for example,
be based on past cases to determine whether
an individual belongs to a risk group when it
comes to giving credit. In medicine, it can be
determined that therapy be prescribed to the
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C. Maletić: BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE
cijentu. Elektrane ili telefonske kompanije
mogu da predvide kada će i koliki biti vrhunac opterećenja kako bi ga izbjegle. U novije
vrijeme javlja se pojam Data Warehousing,
koji se ondosi na centralizaciju svih podataka
u jedno”skladište”. Centralizacija podataka
dramatično ubrzava pristup podacima i njihovu analizu. Podaci koji se nalaze u ovim skladištima mogu biti dostupni svima.
patient. Power stations and telephone companies can not predict when and how to be
culmination of the load, in order to avoid it.
More recently appears the notion Data Warehousing, that apply to the centralization of all
data in a” warehouse”. Centralization of data
dramatically accelerates data access and analysis. Information contained in this repository
can be made available to everyone.
Kratkoročno gledano, najveća primjena Data Mininga vezana je za maksimiziranje
profita u preduzećima. Pogled malo dalje u
budućnost pretpostavlja Data Mining integrisan u svakodnevicu, gdje bismo, zahvaljujući
ovoj tehnologiji, mogli da planiramo rutu do
posla (što na neki način već možemo) ili da
tražimo najpovoljniju prodavnicu za kupovinu svakodnevnih namirnica. U nauci je recimo popularna primjena Data Mininga u astronomiji, gdje se automatski klasifikuju nebeski
objekati. Trenutno je vrlo popularna primjena
Data Mining metoda u bioinformatici, genetskom inženjeringu i farmaciji. U posljednje
vrijeme sve se više i državne agencije zanimaju za Data Mining.
In the short term, the biggest application of Data mining is related to the maximization of profits in companies. Look a little
further into the future Data Mining assumes
integrated into everyday life, where we,
through this technology, we can plan a route
to work (which in some ways, but we can )
or to look for the best shop to buy everyday
goods. In science, for example, is a popular
application of Data Mining in astronomy,
where it is automatic classification of celestial
objects. There are a very popular application
of Data Mining methods in bioinformatics,
genetic engineering and pharmacy. Lately,
more and more government agencies are interested in Data Mining.
Data Mining se može zlonamjerno
iskoristiti, prije svega, narušavajući privatnost. Postoje strahovi da bi osiguravajuće
kompanije mogle koristiti Data Mining tehnike kako bi određenim grupama korisnika
uskratile pravo na zdravstveno osiguranje.
Glavno područje primjene Data Mininga je
ipak biznis. Marketing je područje gdje se
Data Mining, vjerojatno, najviše koristi kako
bi se identifikovale pojedine grupe kupaca i
predvidjelo njihovo ponašanje. Na primjer,
budući da je izračunato da je prosječno 6
puta teže dobiti novog kupca nego zadržati
postojećeg, korisno je znati zašto kupci odlaze. Međutim, takođe je izračunato da se u
prosjeku samo 4% kupaca žali. Data Mining
može pružiti odgovor na pitanje zašto preostalih 96% kupaca odlazi. Još jedna česta primjena je otkrivanje prevara koju koriste poreske službe i državne agencije za sprečavanje
organizovanog kriminala. Specijalizovana
služba američkog ministarstva finansija koristi takav jedan sistem za otkrivanje pranja
Data mining can be used, maliciously. For example, for compromising privacy.
There are fears that insurance companies
can use Data Mining techniques to certain
groups of people denied the right to health
insurance. The main area of application of
Data Mining is still a business. Marketing
is an area where Data Mining is probably
the most used, in order to identify specific
groups of customers and predict their behavior. For example, since it is calculated
that an average of 6 times harder to get a
new customer than to retain an existing one,
it is useful to know why customers are leaving. However, it is also calculated that, on
average, only 4 % of customers complain.
Data Mining can provide an answer to why
the remaining 96 % of customers leave. Another common application is the detection
of deception used by the tax office and state
agencies in fighting organized crime. Specialized Service U.S. Treasury uses such a
system to detect money laundering since
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C. Maletić: POSLOVNA INTELIGENCIJA
novca još od 1993. godine. Otkrivanje prevara pomoću Data Mininga se često koristi i u
telekomunikacijskoj industriji, te kompanijama koje izdaju kreditne kartice. Jedna od
nekonvencionalnih primjena Data Mininga
su sistemi NBA klubova New York Knicksa
i Miami Heata koji analiziraju uzorke u igri
protivničkih ekipa. Na duge staze, Data Mining može da obezbijedi lijekove za današnje
neizlečive bolesti ili čak da pruži odgovor na
pitanje porijekla univerzuma.
1993. year. Fraud with Data Mining is often
used in the telecommunications industry,
and companies that issue credit cards. One
of the unconventional application of Data
Mining systems is NBA teams, the New
York Knicks and Miami Heat - analyzing
samples to play other teams. In the long
term, Data Mining can provide cures for today’s incurable diseases or even to give an
answer to the question of the origin of the
universe.
Data Mining kod nas
Data Mining on our region
Naš region i nije baš svjetski lider na
području Data Mininga. I u svijetu su Data
Mining projekti još relativno rijetki, kao i
kod BI, najveća prepreka široj upotrebi Data
Mininga je to što u dobrom dijelu slučajeva
kod nas ne preovladava ekonomski kriterijum. Osim toga, preduslov za takve projekte je konkurencija. Data Mining projekti su
skupi, kompleksni, dugotrajni i postoji velik
rizik da uopšte neće završiti uspješno. Bez
prisile konkurencije, nitko se neće upuštati u takav rizik. Jedina dva sektora u nas u
kojima vlada prava konkurencija, trgovina
i bankarstvo, ujedno su i dva sektora iz kojih dolazi najveći broj BI projekata. Većina
velikih trgovačkih i financijskih kuća u nas
su već prije nekoliko godina počele s prvim
Business Intelligence projektima. Primjer:
Raiffeisen banka se Data Miningom služi za
različite marketinške analize.
Our region is not exactly a world leader
in the field of Data Mining. In the world of Data
Mining projects are still relatively rare, as in BI,
the biggest obstacle to the wider use of Data
Mining is that to a great extent in our case is not
prevalent economic criteria. In addition, the requirement for such projects is competition. Data
mining projects are expensive, complex, longterm and there is a high risk that it will not complete successfully. Without coercion competition, no one is going to indulge in that kind of
risk. The only two sectors in the U.S. in which
there is real competition, trade and banking,
are also the two sectors from which the largest
number of BI projects. Most of the major commercial and financial houses in the U.S. have
already started several years ago with the first
Business Intelligence projects. Example: Raiffeisen Bank in Data Mining machine is used for
various market analysis.
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intelligence
Oracle Business Intelligence Suite baziran je na modernoj Veb servisno orijentisanoj
arhitekturi (SOA) koja osigurava istinsku poslovnu inteligenciju sljedeće generacije. Oracle Business Intelligence Suite Enterprise Edition (OBI EE) je zajedničko ime za integrisanu
grupu alata poslovne inteligencije sastavljenu
Oracle Business Intelligence Suite is
based on modern Web service-oriented architecture (SOA ) that provides a true next-generation business intelligence. Oracle Business
Intelligence Suite Enterprise Edition ( OBI
EE) is the common name for the integrated
set of business intelligence tools consisting of
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C. Maletić: BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE
od sveobuhvatnog skupa proizvoda koji omogućavaju: (1) korporacijsko izvještavanje i ad
hoc analize; (2) mobilnu analitiku i diskonektirane analize; (3) interaktivne BI Dashboard i
portalsku tehnologiju; (4) integraciju sa Microsoft Office-om i Excel-om; (4) iteligentan radni tok (workflow); (5) proaktivnu inteligenciju
i upozorenja u realnom vremenu...
a comprehensive set of products that allow:
(1) corporate reporting and ad hoc analysis;
(2) mobile and disconnected analytics analysis; (3) interactive BI dashboard and portaltechnology; (4) integration with Microsoft
Office and Excel; (5) intelligent workflow
(workflow ); (6) proactive intelligence and
alerts in real time.
Slika 1. Kontrolna tabla Oracle BI EE
(Oracle, 2008)
Picture 1. Oracle BI EE Dashboard
(Oracle, 2008)
ZAKLJUČAK
CONCLUSION
Sistem poslovne inteligencije je takav sistem koji čuva informacije i znanje o
konkurenciji, kupcima, dobavljačima, procesima. On omogućava poslovno pregovaranje
i brojčano argumentovan nastup prema kupcima i dobavljačima, kvalitetno operativno
planiranje, praćenje ponašanja konkurencije,
posmatranje pojedinih tržišnih segmenata te
predviđanje budućih pojava. Takođe, sistem
poslovne inteligencije nudi bolje razumijevanje vlastitih kupaca i spoznaju što ih podstiče
na određeno ponašanje. S tehničke strane, poslovna inteligencija je proces kojim se sirovi
podaci pretvaraju u informacije. Te informacije se zatim analiziraju i koriste u procesu
odlučivanja u preduzeću.
Business intelligence system is a system that stores information and knowledge on
competition, customers, suppliers, processes.
It allows business negotiation and reasoned
approach to numerically customers and suppliers, quality operational planning, monitoring
the behavior of competitors, the observation of
individual market segments and predict future
events. Also, the business intelligence system
provides a better understanding of their own
customers and realize that encourages them to
certain behavior. On the technical side, business intelligence is the process by which raw
data is converted into information. This information is then analyzed and used in the decision-making process in the company.
To BI or not to BI?
“To BI or not to BI?”
Nema dvoumljenja - odgovor je, svakako, “to BI”. Business Intelligence (BI) si-
No demur - the answer is definitely ”To BI.” Business Intelligence ( BI) sys137
C. Maletić: POSLOVNA INTELIGENCIJA
stemi postali su neizostavno oruđe svih razina
manadžementa u procesima odlučivanja. Pojam poslovne inteligencije u poslednjih je nekoliko godina toliko aktuelan da ga je gotovo
nemoguće izbjeći, što i ne čudi, s obzirom da
nudi rješenje za jedan od najvećih problema
manadžmenta – donošenje kvalitetnih poslovnih odluka. Svaki poslovni subjekt, tijelo državne uprave ili javna institucija, koji svoje
poslovanje podupiru nekim informacionim
sistemom mogu koristiti i poslovnu inteligenciju. Uvođenje BI sistema pomaže u rješavanju upravljačkih problema preduzeća, a, upotrebom informacija i znanja o konkurenciji,
kupcima, dobavljačima, procesima i vezama
među procesima, omogućava poslovno pregovaranje i argumentirani nastup. Omogućava kvalitetno operativno planiranje, praćenje
ponašanja konkurencije, kupaca, dobavljača,
promatranje pojedinih tržišnih segmenata i
predviđanje budućih pojava. BI sistem omogućava bolje razumijevanje vlastitih kupaca i
spoznavanje što ih podstiče na takvo ponašanje. Uvođenje BI sistema u preduzeće može
pomoći u barem četiri područja:
tems have become an indispensable tool for
all levels manadžementa in decision-making
processes. The concept of business intelligence in the last few years, so current that it
is almost impossible to avoid, which is not
surprising, since it offers a solution to one of
the biggest problems of management - making good business decisions. Each business,
government body or public authority which
holds some supporting information system
can be used by business intelligence. The introduction of a BI system helps to solve management problems the company, and use of
information and knowledge on competition,
customers, suppliers, processes, and relationships between processes and allows business
negotiation and reasoned act. Provides quality operational planning, monitoring the behavior of competitors, customers, suppliers,
monitoring of individual market segments
and predict future events. BI system provides
a better understanding of their own customers
and discovering that it encourages such behavior. The introduction of BI system in the
company can help in at least four areas:
1.
bolje razumijevanje poslovanja – što pokreće poslovanje, koji trendovi, ponašanja i anomalije su prisutne u poslovanju;
1.
better understanding of the business - what
drives the business, which trends, behaviors
and anomalies are present in the business ;
2.
mjerenje koristi od uvođenja sistema –
kada znamo gdje i što mjeriti, imamo i
jasne koristi ovakvog sistema;
2.
measuring the benefits of the system - we
know where and what to measure, and
we have clear benefits of such a system ;
3.
poboljšavanje veza sa svim zainteresiranim stranama u stvaranju lanca vrijednosti – osiguravanjem korisnih informacija
o poslovanju i preduzeću kupcima, dobavljačima, zaposlenima, dioničarima
i ostaloj javnosti stvara se povjerenje i
osjećaj informisanosti;
3.
improve communication with all stakeholders in the value creation chain - providing useful information about business
and enterprise customers, suppliers,
employees, shareholders and the wider
public confidence and creates a sense of
awareness ;
4.
omogućavanje prilika za povećanjem
vrijednosti – informacije u današnjem
dobu predstavljaju resurs, odnosno vrijednost kako za samo preduzeće tako i za
ostale učesnike na tržištu koji su spremni
platiti/kupiti određene informacije.
4.
providing opportunities to increase the
value - in today’s information age, a
resource that is the value for both the
company itself and for other market participants are willing to pay / buy certain
information.
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C. Maletić: BUSINESS INTELLIGENCE
LITERATURA
LITERATURE
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139
PRIJATELJI ČASOPISA
ZEDP ''ELEKTO-BIJELJINA'' A. D. BIJELJINA
PREDUZEĆE SA NAJNIŽIM DISTRIBUTIVNIM GUBICIMA U SISTEMU
''ELEKTROPRIVREDE'' REPUBLIKE SRPSKE
U periodu januar-jun 2013. godine, ZEDP ‘’Elektro-Bijeljina’’ a.d Bijeljina, postiglo je izuzetno dobre
poslovne rezultate, koji se najviše ogledaju u smanjenju distributivnih gubitaka. Ovo preduzeće u prvom
polugodištu ostvarilo najniže gubitke u cjelokupnom
sistemu ‘’Elektroprivrede’’ Republike Srpske.
Zahvaljujući otkrivenom broju neovlaštene potrošnje električne energije u prvih šest mjeseci, distributivni gubici su smanjeni na 8,33%, što je najbolji
rezultat od osnivanja ZEDP ‘’Elektro-Bijeljine’’ a.d.
Bijeljina. U pomenutom periodu otkriveno je 259 slučajeva neovlaštene potrošnje, pri čemu je obračunato
Zlatan Lazarević
5,6
miliona kWh električne energije, ukupne vrijedDirektor ZEDP „ELEKTRO-BIJELJINA“ a.d.
nosti od 850 hiljada KM. Ukupni distributivni guBijeljina
bici za prvih šest mjeseci 2013. godine, manji su za
4,27% u odnosu na planiranih 12,60%, čime je postignuta ušteda za preduzeće od 12,769.228
kWh i pozitivan finansijski efekat u iznosu od 1,479.060 KM.
Poređenja radi, u toku 2012.godine, koja je bila rekordna po broju uhvatnina nelegalne
potrošnje u kojoj je otkriveno 209 slučajeva, distributivni gubici su iznosili 10,23%. Smanjenje
distibutivnih gubitaka za 2,67% u odnosu na planiranih 12,90% dovelo je do uštede 19,772.380
kWh električne energije i pozitivan finansijski efekat za preduzeće u iznosu od 2,284.896 KM.
ZEDP ‘’Elektro-Bijeljina’’ a.d. Bijeljina je u toku 2012. godine svoja potraživanja od kupaca naplatila u iznosu od 95,56% od ukupno fakturisane vrijednosti. Za prvih šest mjeseci 2013.
godine, iznos naplaćenih potraživanja od kupaca iznosi 99,90%.
Treba istaći, da je na području koje pokriva ZEDP ‘’Elektro-Bijeljina’’ a.d. Bijeljina nedavno završena rekonstrukcija jedanaest čvornih TS 35/10 kV i da sa isto toliko novoizgrađenih,
u ovom momentu ovo preduzeće raspolaže sa 22 trafo-stanice. U toku mjeseca očekuje se puštanje u rad još jedne novosagrađene TS u Capardama u opštini Osmaci, a potpisan je ugovor
o rekonstrukciji još četiri trafo-stanice 35/10 kV. Sve ovo će omogućiti da ZEDP ‘’Elektro-Bijeljina’’ a.d. Bijeljina nesmetano uđe u ‘’SCADA’’ sistem.
140
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