Intervju: Bojan Marković, viceguverner
Bogatije finansijsko tržište Srbije
Bogatije finansijsko tržište Srbije
Novi dinarski instrumenti na finansijskom tržištu. – Fluktuacije kursa dinara sezonske i
nisu velike. – U srpskim bankama najbolja svetska praksa. - Dinarske obveznice privlačne za
strane investitore
Narodna banka Srbije ima dovoljno deviznih rezervi za
održavanje makroekonomske stabilnosti u Srbiji, ali će
učiniti sve da pokrene i ubrza proces deevroizacije. Tako
će umanjiti negativne efekte deviznog rizika na domaću
ekonomiju.
Deevroizacija je i dalje jedan od glavnih strateških prioriteta
Narodne banke.
Da li se može očekivati mirniji kurs u narednom
periodu?
- Nestabilnost deviznog kursa tokom poslednjih nekoliko
meseci bila je jednaka, ako ne i nešto manje izražena,
u odnosu na kolebljivost valuta u zemljama sa sličnim
monetarnim režimom, kao što su: Mađarska, Poljska,
Rumunija ili Češka.
Koje su glavne mere NBS za očuvanje monetarne i
Zapazili smo, međutim, izvestan uticaj sezonskih faktora
finansijske stabilnosti?
na kretanje kursa dinara u periodu od decembra do
- Dvonedeljna repo kamatna stopa je glavni instrument
februara.
monetarne politike koji će Narodna banka Srbije nastaviti
Pored toga, štednja stanovništva je porasla na prelazu
da primenjuje u 2010. godini, kako bi ostvarila ciljanu
u 2010. godinu. Kako se štednja drži i dalje uglavnom u
stopu inflacije i očuvala makroekonomsku stabilnost.
devizama, kurs je bio izložen dodatnom depresijacijskom
Stopa inflacije na kraju 2009. godine iznosila je 6,6 posto,
pritisku. Prisustvo sezonskog uticaja je donekle
tj. bila je u granicama ciljanog raspona od 8±2 posto. Naš
neuobičajeno, budući da ukazuje na nepostojanje
cilj za kraj 2010. je 6±2, a za kraj 2011. godine 4,5±1,5
efikasnog tržišta, naročito tržišta instrumenata zaštite od
posto.
deviznog rizika.
Drugi važan instrument monetarne politike je nedavno
Tokom pomenutog perioda, Narodna banka je intervenisala
usvojena mera unificiranja i postupnog smanjenja stope
na deviznom tržištu kako bi sprečila prekomerne dnevne
obavezne rezerve tokom 2010 godine. Cilj te mere jeste
oscilacije dinara i obezbedila nesmetano funkcionisanje
jačanje kreditne aktivnosti i finansijskog posredovanja na
tržišta. Intervencije nikada nisu bile usmerene na
putu izlaska privrede iz recesije.
podešavanje nivoa kursa dinara.
Pored toga, Narodna banka Srbije primenjuje niz mera
Počev od marta, sezonski depresijacijski pritisci jenjavaju,
usmerenih na razvoj tržišta
a Narodna banka je gotovo
in­stru­menata zaštite od de­vi­­
potpuno obustavila intervencije
Razvoj NOVIH instrumenata zaštite od
znog rizika, a u saradnji s Mini­
u aprilu. Kad je reč o budućim
deviznog rizika i tržišta dinarskih
star­stvom finansija i na razvoj
kretanjima, verujemo da će
obveznica unaprediće strukturu
tr­ži­šta obveznica u domaćoj
ra­­zvoj tržišta instrumenata
srpskog finansijskog tržišta
valuti. Na primer, nedavno
za­štite od deviznog rizika
smo krenuli sa organizovanjem redovnih tromesečnih
do­prineti smanjenju, ako ne i eliminisanju, sezonskih
svop aukcija deviza, koje su se pokazale uspešnim. Cilj
pritisaka u sledećoj godini i da će uticati na manji stepen
nam je da međubankarskom svop tržištu obezbedimo
intervencija ili čak dovesti do izostanka intervencija na
pokazatelje u pogledu cene i tražnje i da tako omogućimo
deviznom tržištu.
njegov samostalan razvoj, nakon čega planiramo postepeni
Da li je Srbija obezbedila novac za održavanje makro­
izlazak sa tog tržišta.
eko­nomske stabilnosti?
Razvoj tržišta instrumenata zaštite od deviznog rizika i
tržišta dinarskih obveznica unaprediće strukturu srpskog
- Srbija ima dovoljno sredstava za održavanje
finansijskog tržišta i, samim tim, poboljšati finansijsku
makroekonomske stabilnosti, što potvrđuje i najnovije
stabilnost. Takođe će povećati likvidnost i sigurnost
saopštenje misije MMF-a.
ulaganja u domaćoj valuti, te stoga predstavlja preduslov
Narodna banka je u saradnji s domaćim bankarskim
za ubrzanje procesa deevroizacije u Srbiji.
Bojan Marković, viceguverner NBS, objašnjava na koji
način Centralna monetarna vlast Srbije namerava da održi
makroekomomsku stabilnost zemlje.
18
Interview: Bojan Markovic, Vice Governor
A richer financial market in Serbia
New dinar instruments on the financial market – Fluctuation of the dinar rate are seazonal
and are not big – Best world practice in Serbian banks – Dinar bonds attractive to investors
Bojan Markovic, the Vice Governor of the National
Bank of Serbia, explains the manner in which the cen­
tral monetary authority intends to sustain the macro­
economic stability of the country.
Which are the main measures of the NBS for maintaining
monetary and financial stability?
- The two weeks repo rate remains the main monetary
policy instrument the National Bank of Serbia will con­
tinue to use in 2010 in order to achieve its inflation
target, and thus preserve the stable macroeconomic
environment. At end 2009, the inflation in Serbia was
6.6 percent, within our target of 8±2 percent. Our
target for end 2010 is 6±2, and for end 2011 it is
4.5±1.5 percent.
The other important instrument is the recently adopted
measure for unification and gradual easing of reserve
requirements throughout 2010. This measure should
help expand the credit activity and financial interme­
prerequisite for speeding up the process of deeuroisa­
diation as Serbia moves out of recession.
tion in Serbia. Deeuroisation remains one of the main
Besides, the National Bank of Serbia is implementing
strategic priorities of the NBS.
a set of measures in order to foster the development
of the FX hedging market and, in cooperation with the
Can a more stable course of the dinar be expected in
Ministry of Finance, the development of the local cur­
the forth coming period?
rency bond market. For example, we have recently
started with regular three months FX swap transac­
- The volatility of the exchange rate in the past several
tions, which proved successful. Our goal in these
months was in line, if not somewhat lower, with the
transactions is to provide price
volatility of the exchange
and demand signals sufficient The development of the FX hedging mar­ rate in countries with simi­
for the interbank swap mar­ ket and the local currency bond market lar monetary regimes, such
ket to take on, after which we should help deepen the structure of the as Hungary, Poland, Roma­
intend to gradually leave this
nia, or Czech Republic.
Serbian financial market
market. The development of
We did, however, observe a
the FX hedging market and the local currency bond
seasonal effect in the dinar exchange rate in the period
market should help deepen the structure of the Serbian
December to February. In addition, households’ sav­
financial market, and thus enhance the financial stabil­
ings rate rose at the turn of the year. Given the sav­
ity. It should also increase the liquidity and safety of
ing in Serbia is still largely in foreign currency, this put
the local currency investments, and thus represents a
an additional depreciation pressure on the exchange
19
A richer financial market in Serbia
National bank of Serbia has enough foreign currency reserves
for the sustaining of the macroeconomic stability in Serbia,
but will do everything to accelerate the process of de-Ev­
roization. This will decrease the negative effects of the for­
eign currency risk on the local economy.
Bogatije finansijsko tržište Srbije
sektorom, čak i tokom nedavne krize, obezbeđivala
odgovarajući nivo dinarske i devizne likvidnosti kako bi
tržište normalno funkcionisalo. Srbija je zaista jedna od
re­tkih zemalja čiji bankarski sektor nije primao finansijske
injekcije tokom krize.
Devizne rezerve Srbije trenutno iznose 10,7 milijardi evra,
tj. znatno su iznad optimalnog nivoa propisanog pravilima
poput Gidoti-Grinspen pravila (Guidotti-Greenspan rule).
Visok nivo rezervi garantuje mogućnost otplate deviznog
duga, kao i sposobnost održavanja stabilnosti deviznog
tržišta čak i u malo verovatnim ekstremnim okolnostima.
Naš osnovni cilj i glavni pokazatelj makroekonomske
stabilnosti je niska i stabilna inflacija.
Koliko za održavanje makroekonomske stabilnosti
znači podrška MMF-a?
- Podrška MMF-a je značajna i program sa MMF-om
predstavlja jedan od naših ključnih prioriteta. Podrška
MMF-a jača poverenje domaćih i stranih investitora u
našu privredu, te stoga doprinosi smanjenju premije
rizika i snižavanju troškova finansiranja. Očekuje se da će
postojeći program biti na snazi do aprila 2011, premda ne
možemo odbaciti mogućnost njegovog produženja.
Kakav je stav banaka u pogledu propisa Narodne
banke?
- Nastojimo da izradimo naše propise u saradnji s lokalnim
bankama, ali na osnovu najbolje svetske prakse.
Sa bankama imamo aktivnu komunikaciju ne samo tokom
20
postupka izrade novog propisa, već i pre i nakon njegove
primene, kako bismo bili sigurni da su sve odredbe jasne i
da se propis u celini pravilno primenjuje.
Zašto biste preporučili stranim investitorima da dođu
u Srbiju?
- Premda je skorašnja kriza ostavila brojne negativne
posledice na zemlje širom sveta, dala im je i mogućnost
da određene strukturne promene sprovedu brže nego
što bi to inače bio slučaj. U Srbiji je tokom prošle
godine sprovedeno nekoliko takvih strukturnih promena.
Pomenuću neke od njih u kojima je Narodna banka Srbije
bila neposrednije uključena.
Prvo, razvoj efikasnog sekundarnog tržišta dinarskih
državnih obveznica je sada sasvim izvestan što će stranim
investitorima obezbediti širi izbor alternativnih likvidnih
sredstava za diversifikaciju portfelja, a i mogućnost da
izraze svoje viđenje potencijala za ulaganje u srpsku
privredu i domaću valutu.
Drugo, tržište instrumenata zaštite od deviznog rizika
se postepeno razvija i omogućiće zaštitu od devizne
izloženosti i istovremeno smanjiti finansijsku osetljivost
srpske privrede.
Konačno, novi monetarni okvir ciljanja inflacije, zvanično
uveden u januaru 2009, ostao je otporan tokom krize i
pokazao da Narodna banka ima dovoljno instrumenata
i znanja da zaštiti srpsku privredu čak i od ekstremnih
poremećaja, kao i da obezbedi stabilno makroekonomsko
okruženje uz manju kolebljivost BDP-a i inflacije u odnosu
na mnoge susedne zemlje.
Has Serbia secured the money necessary for the
sustaining of the macroeconomic stability?
- Serbia has sufficient sources to maintain macroeco­
nomic stability. This is confirmed by the recent IMF
mission statement.
Even during the recent crisis, the NBS in collaboration
with the Serbian banking sector provided an adequate
level of dinar and foreign exchange liquidity to ensure
normal and uninterrupted functioning of the market.
Indeed, Serbia is one of the rare countries with no fi­
nancial injections in the banking sector during the cri­
sis.
As of now, the foreign exchange reserves in Serbia
stand at 10.7 billion euros, much above any optimal
rule, such as the Guidotti-Greenspan one. The high
level of reserves guarantees the ability to pay off for­
eign exchange debt, as well as the ability to maintain
the stability of the foreign exchange market even in the
unlikely extreme events circumstances.
Our main goal, and the main indication of the macro­
economic stability, remains low and stable inflation.
How significant is the support of the MMF for the
sustaining of the macroeconomic stability?
- The IMF support is valuable, and the Program with
the IMF remains one of our key priorities. The IMF sup­
port strengthens the trust in Serbian economy of both
domestic and foreign investors. It thus helps reduce
the country risk premium, and helps lower the cost of
finance. The current program is expected to continue
by April 2011, although one cannot dismiss a possibil­
ity for the program to be extended.
What is the attitude of the banks in regard to the
regulations of the Natioanal bank?
- We are committed to build our regulation in collabo­
ration with local banks, but based on the best practice
applied in the world. We also maintain an active com­
munication channel with banks, not only throughout
the process of drafting the new regulation, but also be­
fore and after the implementation of the new regula­
tion, to make sure all is well understood and properly
implemented.
Why would you advise foreign investors to come to
Serbia?
- Although the recent crisis left many negative con­
sequences throughout the world, it was also an op­
portunity to conduct some structural changes quicker
than otherwise. In Serbia, several structural changes
took place during the past year. I will mention some
of them in which the National Bank of Serbia is more
directly involved. First, the development of an efficient
secondary market in dinar-denominated government
bonds is now likely. For foreign investors this will en­
sure a wider choice of liquid alternative assets for port­
folio diversification, and a way to express their invest­
ment view on Serbian economy and currency. Second,
the FX hedging market is steadily developing, which
will help protect against the currency exposure, and
also reduce the financial fragility of the Serbian econ­
omy. Finally, the new monetary framework of inflation
targeting, explicitly introduced in January 2009, proved
resilient during the crisis, and showed that the National
Bank has sufficient instruments and knowledge to pro­
tect Serbian economy against even extreme shocks,
and to ensure the stable macroeconomic environment
with less volatility in GDP and inflation than in many
neighbouring countries.
www.nbs.rs
21
A richer financial market in Serbia
rate. The presence of the seasonal effect is somewhat
unusual as it indicates the absence of the efficient
market, and in particular the absence of an efficient FX
hedging market. During this period, the National Bank
of Serbia intervened in the FX market to prevent an
excessive daily volatility of the exchange rate, and to
ensure a smooth functioning of the market. The NBS,
however, never intervened in order to affect any level
of the exchange rate.
Since March, the seasonal depreciation pressures
tamed down, and the National Bank’s interventions al­
most ceased in April. Looking forward, we believe that
the development of the FX hedging market would help
reduce, or even eliminate, the seasonal pressures next
year, leading to less intervention, or even no interven­
tion, in the foreign exchange market.
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